SVB State of the Markets Q3 2018

State of the Markets
Inside Views on the Health and Productivity
of the Global Innovation Economy
Third Quarter 2018
SPECIAL REPORT:
China’s Tech Growth Strategy

State of the Markets: Q3’18 2
State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2018
4 Bull Run: Tech Outswings the Market
8 Exit Conditions: Dual-Tracks Open
13 Emerging Sectors: Tech in the Real World
17 Venture in China: Investment Playbook
21 Spotlight on Shenzhen: Entrepreneurial Success
24 Southeast Asia: Expanding Influence

State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2018
Tech Titans Dominate
Recent headlines might be all about tariffs, potential trade wars and turmoil, but investors’ appetite for tech
appears unabated. Tech titans continue to lead this bull market and monopolize top slots as the most valuable U.S.
companies. Yet while the IPO window remains open for emerging companies and both strategic and financial
buyers have ample cash on hand for deals, investors and operators would be wise to acknowledge the underlying
risks. The venture economy is not immune to economic downturns, so global growth rates bear watching.
Of course investors’ love affair with tech is not a U.S. phenomenon. This quarter we travel to China, which has
quickly established itself as a leading innovation economy with a proliferation of young unicorns. The “hardware
capital” of Shenzhen offers a fascinating case study, evolving from sleepy fishing village, to low-value
manufacturing, to global tech powerhouse in just a generation. China’s influence is spreading to Southeast Asia by
exporting tech and establishing programs to partner with neighboring countries. The influence of Chinese tech is
not a passing phase, but rather it’s just the beginning.
Bob Blee
Head of Corporate Finance
Silicon Valley Bank

Bull Run: Tech
Outswings the Market

U.S. Tech Giants Worth More Than Next 10 Companies
Source: S&P Capital IQ and SVB analysis.
$0.0T
$0.5T
$1.0T
$1.5T
$2.0T
$2.5T
$3.0T
$3.5T
$4.0T
1 2
#1
#2
#3
#5
#4
$3.8T
$3.1T
Top 5 vs. Next 10: Highest Market Cap at 6/30/18
A decade of robust consumer and business spending has helped tech lock down the top five slots as
the most valuable U.S. companies. Still, tech is susceptible to larger swings than the overall market.
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018
Cumulative Returns for S&P 500 Tech vs. S&P 500
#6
S&P 500 Market Index
S&P 500 Information Technology

Could Market Turmoil Spoil the Party for Venture?
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1 53 105 157 209
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1 53 105 157 209
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1 53 105 157 209
$0B
$5B
$10B
$15B
$20B
$25B
$30B
$35B
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
$0B
$2B
$4B
$6B
$8B
$10B
$12B
$14B
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Dot-com Era: Q2’98–Q1’02 Financial Crisis: Q4’05–Q3’09 Current Bull Run: Q3’16–Q2’18
S&P 500 Index Returns S&P 500 Index Returns S&P 500 Index Returns
U.S. Venture Investment U.S. Venture Investment U.S. Venture Investment
$0B
$5B
$10B
$15B
$20B
$25B
$30B
$35B
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Venture capital by its very nature is a riskier asset. The last two bouts of U.S. market turmoil had
a marked effect on investment flows into emerging tech and life sciences companies.
Source: PwC/CB Insights MoneyTree, PitchBook/NVCA, S&P Capital IQ and SVB analysis.

-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Jul. 2017 Oct. 2017 Jan. 2018 Apr. 2018
Coordinated Global Growth Falls Out of Sync
Notes: 1) OMSCI USA. 2) OMSCI EM. 3) OMSCI EAFE. 4) China 1 Year Benchmark Lending Rates, PBOC.
5) U.S. Fed Funds Rate. 6) UK Bank of England Official Bank Rate. 7) ECB Main Refinancing Operations Rate.
Source: S&P Capital IQ, Bloomberg, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and SVB analysis.
Cumulative Equity Market Returns: Q3’17–Q2’18 Benchmark Rates for Major Economies: 2006–1H’18
Performance 2H’17
United States1 +12%
Emerging Markets2 +17%
Developed Markets3 +9%
Q2’18
U.S. +6%
EM -9%
DM -4%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
China4
U.K.6
E.U.7
U.S.5
The U.S. economy is powering global growth after stumbles in Europe and emerging markets in early
2018. To avoid overheating, the Federal Reserve continues to raise rates, and is now out of step with
other major economies. Tech companies, at scale, rely on global growth to substantiate lofty valuations.
July
2017
Sept. Jan.
2018
April 2006 2010 2014 1H’18

Exit Conditions:
Dual-Tracks Open

0
10
20
30
40
50
Jul. 2015Oct. 2015Jan. 2016Apr. 2016Jul. 2016Oct. 2016Jan. 2017Apr. 2017Jul. 2017Oct. 2017Jan. 2018Apr. 2018
IPOs Look More Attractive in 2018
Notes: 1) More information on BVP Cloud Index at: https://www.bvp.com/strategy/cloud-computing/index.
2) Revenue run rate = Most Recent Quarter’s Revenue x 4. Valuations based on total enterprise value.
Source: Bessemmer Venture Partners, S&P Capital IQ and SVB analysis.
BVP Cloud Index1: Rev. Run Rate Multiple (Median)2U.S. Equity Volatility Index (^VIX): 2H’15–1H’18
20
2.0x
3.0x
4.0x
5.0x
6.0x
7.0x
8.0x
9.0x
10.0x
7/1/2015 10/1/2015 1/1/2016 4/1/2016 7/1/2016 10/1/2016 1/1/2017 4/1/2017 7/1/2017 10/1/2017 1/1/2018 4/1/2018
The backlog of companies looking to access liquidity and capital with an IPO found low
valuations to start 2016 and high volatility to start 2018. However, heading into the summer of
2018 both indications appear ripe for public debuts. IPOs are likely to follow.
Low Volatility
July
2015
Jan.
2016
July Jan.
2017
July Jan.
2018
July
2015
Jan.
2016
July Jan.
2017
July Jan.
2018

$0.0B
$1.0B
$2.0B
$3.0B
$4.0B
$5.0B
$6.0B
$7.0B
$8.0B
MuleSoft AppDynamics iZettle AppNexus Adaptive Insights GitHub Mobike Glassdoor Ring Musical.ly PillPack
IPOs Provide Price Discovery for Acquisitions
Notable $1B+ Tech Acquisitions: 2017–1H’18
Notes: 1) AppDynamics was reportedly pricing IPO below last private round.
2) Mobike was acquired at a 10% discount to their last private round.
Source: PitchBook, S&P Capital IQ, The Wall Street Journal, CNBC and SVB analysis.
Privately HeldIn IPO RegistrationPublic
Mar. 2018 .Jan. 20171 May 2018 June 2018 June 2018 June 2018 .Apr. 20182 June 2018 Apr. 2018 Dec. 2017 June 2018
Target
Last Public
Valuation
Valuation at
Acquisition
IPO Valuation
Last Private
Valuation
Acquirer
Deal Date
Legend
Strategics have been willing to pay up in 2018. Acquirers are so hungry for tech assets that several
companies in IPO registration have been acquired for healthy premiums before hitting the market.

2H’13 2014 2015 2016 2017 1H'18
Continued M&A for Scaled Mid-Market Companies
U.S. Venture-Backed Tech Acquisitions $250M–999M: Q3’13–Q2’18 Most Active Acquirers1
Note: 1) For acquisitions with the same criteria as the chart.
Source: PitchBook and SVB analysis.
Most Active Deals
Cisco 8 $3.1B
Oracle 6 $3.5B
Thoma Bravo 5 $2.4B
Vista Equity 4 $2.4B
Salesforce 4 $2.3B
GTCR 3 $1.7B
Intel 3 $1.1B
U.S. Tech Giants
Alphabet 2 $0.9B
Microsoft 2 $0.8B
Amazon 1 $0.5B
Facebook 1 $0.5B
Apple 0 $0.0B
0
10
20
30
40
$0.0B
$1.0B
$2.0B
$3.0B
$4.0B
$5.0B
$6.0B
$7.0B
$8.0B
2Q1Q4Q3Q2Q1Q4Q3Q2Q1Q4Q3Q2Q1Q4Q3Q2Q1Q4Q3Q
Capital
Beneath the megadeals, financial buyers continue to offer another exit path for companies at <$1B.
Private equity deals accounted for more than one-third of 1H’18 transaction value in this range.
Strategic Buyers
Financial Buyers Deal Count

$0.0T
$0.5T
$1.0T
$1.5T
$2.0T
$2.5T
12/31/2007
Ample Cash at the Ready for Tech M&A
Notes: 1) Net cash for strategic acquirers includes cash and ST & LT investments, net ST & LT debt. No consideration was
given to domicile of holdings. 2) Based on constituents of the S&P 500 as of June 30, 2018. 3) Based on dry powder for
private equity as of September 30, 2017, multiplied by SVB estimate of amount invested in technology deals.
S&P 5002: Cash and Cash Equivalents: 2008–1H’18Net Cash: Financial and Strategic Buyers1
$107B
$145B
$109B
$51B
$44B
$1B
$0B
$20B
$40B
$60B
$80B
$100B
$120B
$140B
Private Equity Apple Google Microsoft Facebook Amazon
U.S. PE Tech
Dry Powder3
Capital remains plentiful for traditional acquirers: Private equity firms are nearing all-time highs
for dry powder, and strategics are cash- and equity-rich. As tech moves to disrupt all industries,
note that current S&P 500 constituents have doubled their cash over the last decade.
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Emerging Sectors:
Tech in the Real World

0
30
60
90
120
$0M
$200M
$400M
$600M
$800M
1H'18201620142012
Shifting Retail Trends Attract Capital
Note: 1) Based on annualized 1H’18 total.
Source: PitchBook, TechCrunch, The Wall Street Journal, Reuters, CNBC, company websites and SVB analysis.
Acquisitions & Investments for E-commerceLogistics: Venture Capital Raised and Deal Count
ProjectedFullYear1
China-based logistics firm
Acquired majority stake in
2017 at $20B valuation
Middle Eastern
e-commerce site
Acq. in July 2017 for $580M
SE Asian e-commerce site
Acquired majority stake in
2016 at $2B valuation
Middle Eastern
logistics firm
Acq. in Sept. 2017 by Souq
Invested $550M into
JD.com in June 2018
Invested in Jet in 2015
Invested $215M into JD.com
for 15% stake in March 2014
Invested in Flipkart in 2017
“The rival of my..
rival is my friend”
Helping accelerate
int’l expansion
Dominance in local
and regional markets
Indian e-commerce site
Acquired by Walmart for
$20B in April 2018
U.S. e-commerce and logistics
Acquired by Walmart for
$3.3B in Aug. 2016
Adapting to sales
moving online
Consumer expectations are shifting, and retail continues to migrate away from brick and mortar.
As e-commerce giants expand their logistics capabilities to cover both domestic and
international markets, startup investors are committing capital to the next generation.

0 25 50 75 100 125
NEA
Polaris Partners
GV
Canaan Partners
Venrock
Kleiner Perkins
Khosla
Founders Fund
Data Collective
Sequoia
Tech Venturing into Healthcare
Note: 1) Includes venture firms where less than one-third of deals over the past five years were in healthcare.
Source: PitchBook, The Wall Street Journal, company websites and SVB analysis.
Notable Efforts from Tech GiantsMost Active Generalist Investors1 in U.S. Healthcare: 2H’13–1H’18
Total Deals
Deal Value
Life sciences subsidiary
utilizing data to improve
patient care and outcomes
Biotech R&D subsidiary
in partnership with AbbVie
focused on longevity
ChinaInvts.
U.S.Invts.
Announced partnership
in Jan. 2018 to combat
rising healthcare costs
Online pharmacy
delivery startup acquired
for $1.0B in June 2018
Healthcare is a massive yet inefficient marketplace ripe for innovation and investment. But
tackling healthcare challenges is no easy task. Data-rich use cases for AI/ML in diagnostics and
genomics are drawing substantial interest.
$5.0B
$2.5B
$3.6B
$1.8B
$3.2B
$2.1B
$1.6B
$1.2B
$0.5B
$2.0B

AI+: Vertical Applications of Artificial Intelligence
AI + Cybersecurity AI + Digital Health AI + Fintech
Most Well-Funded U.S. Startups: June 2018
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0
20
40
60
80
100
1H'18201620142012
U.S. Venture Deals
% of all Cybersecurity Deals
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0
20
40
60
80
100
1H'18201620142012
U.S. Venture Deals
% of all Digital Health Deals
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0
20
40
60
80
100
1H'18201620142012
U.S. Venture Deals
% of all Fintech Deals
$481M $330M $297M
Most Well-Funded U.S. Startups: June 2018 Most Well-Funded U.S. Startups: June 2018
$500M $237M $55M $1,357M $718M $439M
The future is out of the lab and into our lives, improving everything from portfolio returns to
human lifespans. The percentage of startups using AI has climbed in nearly every category.

Venture in China:
Investment Playbook

15 10 5 0 5 10 15
A Younger Herd of Unicorns in China
Source: CB Insights, PitchBook and SVB analysis.
China has quickly established itself as a Top Two venture market. In China, the ratio of younger
(<4 years) to older unicorns (>10 years) is 1-to-1. In the U.S., that ratio is 1-to-4. This speaks to
how rapidly companies can reach an astronomical scale in this dynamic emerging market.
Distribution of Current Unicorns by Age as of June 2018: China vs. U.S.
U.S. Total:
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
China Total:
72 113+
Age
0
Count
Median: 9
Median: 6

$250B+.$50–$250B$20–$50B$10–$20B$5–$10B
The Long Reach of China’s BATJ
Note: 1) Valuations based on market cap (Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent and JD.com) or most recent private round as of June 30, 2018.
Source: China Money Network, S&P Capital IQ, PitchBook, TechCrunch, company websites and SVB analysis.
BATJ and $5B+ China Unicorns
Jiedaibao
Pinduoduo
Unaffiliated
Valuation Band1
China’s internet giants are a dominant presence in the venture ecosystem. More than two-thirds
of China’s current unicorns with $5B+ valuations have received investment from at least one of
the BATJ. And now, Alibaba and Tencent may look to invest even earlier in companies’ life cycles.
Own/Acquired
Invested
Legend

IPOs: How China’s Companies Decide Where to List
Source: S&P Capital IQ and SVB analysis.
China Tech IPO Gross Proceeds by Exchange: Capital Raised in $100M+ IPOs
$0.0B
$1.0B
$2.0B
$3.0B
$4.0B
$5.0B
$6.0B
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1H'18
$22B
AlibabaJD.com
FIIFoxconn
Xiaomi
iQIYI
ZhongAn
Legend
Guosen
CRSC
Scaled companies in China face an international decision when it comes time to list and must
consider access to capital, liquidity and regulatory constraints. Six of China’s last eight $1B+ tech
IPOs chose exchanges in the U.S. and Hong Kong. Officials would like to see more list domestically.
U.S. H.K. China U.S. H.K. China U.S. H.K. China U.S. H.K. China U.S. H.K. China U.S. H.K. China U.S. H.K. China
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1H’18

Spotlight on Shenzhen:
Entrepreneurial Success

Shenzhen: Economic Experiment Yields Results
Note: 1) Based on current fundraising efforts as of April 2018.
Source: South China Morning Post, S&P Capital IQ, China Money Network, company websites and SVB analysis.
City Population, Milestones and Company Formations: 1970–Today
0.0M
2.0M
4.0M
6.0M
8.0M
10.0M
12.0M
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Today
Shenzhen
New York City
Shenzhen’s Tech Giants
Designated China’s first
Special Economic Zone.
Shenzhen Stock
Exchange opens.
Launches int’l recruitment
effort, the “Peacock Plan.”
Small fishing community
with 2000-year history.
In the span of a generation, Shenzhen has climbed from a fishing village to a global tech powerhouse.
Deliberate structural planning and talent acquisition efforts, coupled with world-class hardware
manufacturing, have equipped a generation of market-oriented companies to compete globally.
Telecom equipment developer,
manufacturer and distributor
Market Cap: Privately Held
2017 Total Revenue: $92.5B
Internet social and gaming platform;
e.g. owns WeChat (1B+ MAU)
Market Cap (6/30/18): $473.5B
Consumer aerial drone and camera
developer and manufacturer
Market Cap (6/30/18): $15B1
2017 Total Revenue: Unknown
Telecom equipment and other
information technology provider
Market Cap (6/30/18): $7.9B

Market-Oriented Approach Spurs Innovation
Notes: 1) Based on list of 96 companies under the supervision of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission
(SASAC). 2) PCT Applications are applications filed under the Patent Cooperation Treaty. 3) Data as of 2016. 4) Data as of 2017.
Source: State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission website, World Intellectual Property Organization,
The Economist analysis of WIPO and SIPO data, company websites and SVB analysis.
China’s Centrally Controlled
State-Owned Enterprises by City1
PCT Applications2 by City:
Percentage of China Total3
PCT Applications2 by Company:
Top 5 & Shenzhen Cos. in Top 1004
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
75%
BJ SH SZ O
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
75%
BJ SH SZ Other
Company
1 Huawei 4,204.
2 ZTE 2,965.
3 Intel 2,637.
4 Mitsubishi 2,521.
5 Qualcomm 2,163.
18 Shenzhen CSOT 972.
32 Tencent 560.
34 Yulong 517.
85 DJI Technology 238.
Rank PCT Apps.
ShanghaiBeijing Shenzhen Other ShanghaiBeijing Shenzhen Other
Shenzhen’s short history means little presence from incumbent state-owned enterprises. Instead,
special economic incentives attracted entrepreneurs, and free market forces drove them to be
innovators. Shenzhen-based companies now hold the top two spots in global patent applications.

Southeast Asia:
Expanding Influence

China Sees Itself in Southeast Asia
Note: 1) Includes Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.
Source: The World Bank, eMarketer, China Internet Network Information Center, Hootsuite and SVB analysis.
Gross Domestic Product: 2000–2017
$0.0T
$5.0T
$10.0T
$15.0T
$20.0T
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
Internet Users (IU) and YoY Growth Rates: Jan. 2018
China
SE Asia1
Population:
1,385M
Internet Users:
772M
Pop: 326M
IU: 280M
Pop: 574M
IU: 350M
6%
<2%
12%
2017
4.7x4.7x
U.S.
Today, China is looking to Southeast Asia as their engine of economic growth. With double-digit
growth for a user base that’s already larger than the U.S., China’s tech is finding opportunities to
go international.
China
U.S.
Southeast Asia1

China Investor:
HQ: Singapore
Logistics Real Estate Services
Investment: $306M in May 2018
Traveloka
Grab
Finding Familiar Investments in Southeast Asia
Note: 1) Potential expansion efforts for Lazada operations under the control of Alibaba.
Source: S&P Capital IQ, PitchBook, Reuters, Forbes, TechCrunch and SVB analysis.
Notable SE Asian Companies with Significant Investment from China Companies and Venture Firms
Sea Lazada
Tokopedia The Redwood Group Bigo
GO-Jek
Headquarters: Singapore
Valuation: $5.0B
Publicly Traded on NYSE
China-Based Investors:
Business Line Expansion:
Valuation: $10.0B
Series H in June 2018
Headquarters: Jakarta
Valuation: $5.0B
Series E in Feb. 2018
Valuation: $2.0B
Acquisition in April 2016
China-Based Acquirer:
E-commerceGaming Payments
Payments
Ride
Hailing
Grocery Delivery
Motorcycle
Hailing
Payments
E-commerce Logistics? Payments?
Business Line Expansion1:
China Investors:
HQ: Jakarta
Travel Search Engine
Valuation: $1.0B in July 2017
China Investor:
HQ: Jakarta
E-commerce Marketplace
Investment: $1.1B in Aug. 2017
China Investor:
HQ: Singapore
Online Video Broadcasting
Investment: $272M in June 2018
The market opportunities in Southeast Asia bear a strong resemblance to those in China a decade
ago. This reflects the influence of strategic capital from China’s corporate giants and prominent
investors. Often, the focus is expanding services to an upgrading consumer class.

Developing Pathways to New Market Opportunities
Belt and Road Initiative Infrastructure and Construction Investment by Country: Oct. 2013–June 2018
$8B
Kazakhstan
$24B
Russia
$6B
Kuwait
$9B
Saudi Arabia
$17B
Egypt
$9B
Ethiopia
$8B
Iraq $13B
Iran
$12B
Israel
$9B
India
$18B
UAE
$31B
Malaysia
$28B
Singapore
$25B
Indonesia
$7B
Thailand
$21B
Bangladesh
$9B
Sri Lanka
$7B
Vietnam
$18B
Laos
$9B
S. Korea
$7B
Philippines
$40B
Pakistan
Total to Date:
$420B
Legend: $10B+
$2B+
$7B
Cambodia
To ensure growth beyond opportunities in Southeast Asia, China is laying the groundwork to be a
more prominent regional player. The Belt and Road Initiative will establish modern trade routes for
goods from China to reach future generations of consumers in Southeast Asia and beyond.
Source: China Global Investment Tracker, with data compiled by The American Enterprise Institute
and The Heritage Foundation and SVB analysis.

Appendix

Report Authors
Steven Pipp, CFA
VP, Research
spipp@svb.com
Bob Blee
Head of Corporate Finance
bblee@svb.com
Bob Blee heads Silicon Valley Bank’s Corporate Finance Group,
which leads SVB's relationships with public and late stage
private companies in the Innovation sector throughout North
America, providing a full suite of lending and banking products,
as well as guidance as a trusted partner helping our clients
succeed and quickly scale.
Previously, Bob held a variety of roles in SVB’s California and
Midwest geographies, including heading seed, early and mid-
stage Infrastructure, Hardware, Consumer Internet and Fintech
banking in the Bay Area and Southern California, as well as
responsibility for SVB’s Mezzanine Lending and Loan
Syndications practices.
Bob sits on the nonprofit board of the Network for Teaching
Entrepreneurship (NFTE) and the Silicon Valley Advisory
Council of the Commonwealth Club. He is also active with his
alma mater, the University of Illinois.
Steven Pipp is a Vice President, Research, based in San Francisco,
CA, responsible for capital markets research and data-driven analysis
of the innovation economies that SVB serves globally.
Prior to his research role, Steven managed advisory and valuation
engagements for venture-backed technology companies as part of
SVB Analytics. Before joining SVB, Steven worked in Minneapolis,
MN, as a consultant and entrepreneur in clean energy technology.
Steven earned a Master of Science in Finance from Boston College and
a Bachelor of Science Business from the University of Minnesota. In
addition, he holds the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) designation.

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SVB State of the Markets Q3 2018

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