http://www,saharconsulting.com An Educational presentation about Problem solving and decision making using different tools and offering solutions to problem solving, creative thinking and Decision making

1. Problem Solving& Decision Making
Sahar Consulting, LLC

2. Do not put a band aid – Solve the root of
the problem
You can’t solve problems with the
same thinking that created them
Albert Einstein
"In any moment of decision the best thing you
can do is the right thing, the next best thing is the
wrong thing, and the worst thing you can do is
nothing." (attributed to Theodore Roosevelt)

3.  Thinking should be taught (6 hats)
 Difference between IQ & Thinking (Car
Motor-Potential & Skills of Driver OR
Computer & Software)
 1+2+3+……10 = 55
 1 + 2+ 3+………….98+99+100= 5050
 100+99+98+……………3+ 2+ 1= 5050
------------------------------------------
101 101 101 101 101 101 x 50

4. Problem Solving
3. Problem Solving
Process4. Problem Solving
Tools
1. What is
Problem Solving? 2. Barriers to Effective
Problem Solving

5. Problem Solving& Decision Making
The relationship between them
Problem solving and Decision making go hand in hand.
Practicing them effectively will increase your potential to
advance

6.  Scenario not matching the desired
situation needing improvement- Challenge
/ Opportunity
 Anytime actual performance does not
match expectations
 Problems don't occur without a reason.
 In any situation with a problem, there must
be an historical point; when actual
performance started to deviate.
 Something happened at the time x which
caused the problem to occur.
 It is important to distinguish between
symptoms of a problem and its causes
What is a Problem?

7. Barriers to Problem Solving
 Failure to recognize the problem- not sure what the problem is
 Conceiving the problem too narrowly, not sure what is happening
 Making a hasty choice, not sure what you want
 Failure to consider all consequences, not enough resources
 Failure to consider the feasibility of the solution
 Failure to know to communicate what is possible
 Failure to define what YOU did that was responsible for your
success
 Team attitudes like complacency, ridiculing others’ ideas, lack of
accountability, dysfunctions, fear of change, lack of trust and
doubts
 Too many chefs in the kitchen
 Value judgment: Members afraid to be judged based on their
skills

8. Avoiding Pitfalls
(A) Giving up too early
(B) Jumping straight to conclusions about the cause
(C) Not getting the right people involved
(D) Not collecting all the relevant data
 The worst one is “B " because. It is always
tempting to jump to conclusions assuming we
know the cause, and take action to solve it.

9. Don’t be ridiculous.
We tried that before.
We’ve never done it before. It costs too much.
It isn’t in the budget.
That beyond our responsibility.
Can’t teach an old dog new tricks.
We’ll be the laughing stock.
Are our competitors doing it?
We don’t have time.
You’re two years ahead of your time.
It’s too radical a change.
Top management will never go for it.
Not practical for operating.
Let’s form a committee.That’s not out problem.
Has anyone else tried it?
We’re not ready for that.
Attitudes That Kill Creative Ideas

10. Creative Problem Solving
 Creativity means
uniqueness and
innovation
 The creative problem
solving process is at
work anytime you
identify solutions that
have value or that
somehow improve a
situation for someone
AT&T

11. Creative Problem Solving
Six major steps to implement solutions to almost any kind
of problem. The steps are:
1. Information Gathering to understand before
proceeding. Determine what type of information it is.
2. Problem Definition, Identify the proper questions:
What, Why, Who, How, When, Which, Where…
In some cases, taking action to address a problem before
adequately identifying the problem is worse than doing
nothing as it will waste time, money and human
resources. Happens when you only treat symptoms
3. Generating Possible Solutions using various tools
4. Analyzing Possible Solutions, or determining the
effectiveness of possible solutions before proceeding
5. Selecting the Best Solution(s)
6. Planning the Next Course of Action (Next Steps), or
implementing the solution(s)

12. Re-Arrange 2 matches and make 7
Squares

14. Problem Solving Action Flow (PAID)
• Set a Problem Statement
– Describe the problem
– Develop a one sentence problem statement
• Analyze the problem in detail
– Analyze what is wrong
– Analyze what is right
• Identify likely causes
– What's different?
– What has changed?
– What are the most likely explanations?
• Define actual cause/s
– What is the most likely explanation?
– Can I prove it?

15. Most crucial step in problem solving and should always be the initial
step: First determine what type of information it is:
 Facts: Small pieces of known data, based on objective details and
experience.
 Opinions also based on observation and experience, but are
subjective and can be self-serving.
 Opinionated fact when a fact and opinion are presented
together, usually used to sway others.
 Concepts are general ideas or categories of items or ideas that share
common features, important to develop theories.
 Assumptions Concept/suggestion taken for granted.
 Procedures info on how to do something with specific steps.
 Processes are continuous actions or operations to explain how
something works or operates.
 Principles accepted rules, laws or doctrines, often describing actions
or conduct.
Gather Information

16.  This new computer system is too hard to learn.
 Only 23 birds died.
 My house backyard space is 1/5 of an acre.
 The background is red.
 A new employee benefit program is too expensive to
implement.
 To wash your hands, first wet your hands, then add
soap, rub your hands to lather the soap, and rinse off the
soap.
 The water cycle includes the evaporation of water, the
condensation of water vapor into clouds, rain, and water
flowing in streams and rivers back to lakes and seas.
 Gravity causes dropped objects to always fall to the ground.
Examples
OPINION
OPINIONATED FACT
FACT
RED IS A CONCEPT
ASSUMPTION
PROCEDURE
PROCESS
PRINCIPLE

17. Problem Solving Process
Accepting the Problem
Step 1: What is the Problem?
Step 2: Setting the Problem Statement
Step 3: Analyze the Problem in details
Step 4: Identify Likely causes
Step 5: Define actual causes

18. What is the
Problem?
(1)
Accepting the Problem
Define Present & Desired State

19.  Need first to accept the problem by
acknowledging that the problem exists and
committing yourself to trying to solve it.
 Strategies to find the motivation to enter the
process:
1.List you benefits from solving the problem.
2.Formalize your acceptance- Commit to solve the
problem
3.Accept responsibility for your life
4.Create a “worst-case” scenario.
5.Identify what’s holding you back.- what is
preventing you from solving the problem? It could
be your fear of change
Accepting the Problem

20. 1. Where did the problem start? Where it exists or not?
2. What Do I know about the problem? What is the current
state and desired state- What can you see is causing the
problem? What results I seek?
3. How is it happening?
4. When is it happening?
5. Whom is it happening to? No Blaming
6. Why is it happening?
7. Which part causes it?
 Stating and restating the problem
 Analyze the problem
 List everything you know about the problem
 List what you want the solution to achieve
Define The Problem
Hotel
Elevator

21.  Interview / question anyone who might
know something useful about the
problem. Ask questions to:
1. Clarify the situation
2. Challenge assumptions about the
problem
3. Determine possible reasons and
evidence
4. Explore different perspectives
concerning the problem
5. Ask more about the original question
If you can not identify the problem find out
who did before, challenge their
assumptions
Where Did the Problem Start?

22. 1. Write a statement of the situation as it
currently exists.
2. Then you write a statement of where what
you would like the situation to look like.
3. The desired state should include
concrete details and should not contain
any information about possible causes or
solutions.
4. Refine the descriptions for each state until
the concerns and needs identified in the
present state are addressed in the desired
state.
Define Present & Desired State

23.  Write a statement of the problem, no matter how
vague. Then
 Try different triggers: Different words and ask
questions about each one.
 Replace one word with a substitute that explicitly
defines the word to reframe the problem.
 Rephrase the statement with positives instead of
negatives and VV to obtain an opposite problem.
 Add or change words that indicate quantity or
time
 Identify any persuasive or opinionated words in
the statement. Replace or eliminate them.
 Try drawing a picture of the problem or writing the
problem as an equation.
Stating & Re-Stating the Problem

24. Setting the
Problem Statement
(2)
Describe the problem
Develop a one sentence problem statement

25. Write Problem Statement
 Describe the problem as a general view; to lay a solid
foundation for further work.
 The problem statement should:
1. Include specific details about the problem, including who, what,
when, where, and how
2. Address the scope of the problem to identify boundaries of what
you can reasonably solve
 The problem statement should not include:
1. Any mention of possible causes
2. Any potential solutions
 Should be precise and clear so anyone can comprehend it. A
detailed, and concise problem statement will provide clear-cut
goals for focus and direction for coming up with solutions

26.  Several potential reasons are given below:
1. Wrong problem statement wrong = Search
in the wrong areas for the problem's cause
= loss of time, money and resources.
2. Decide what work must be completed to
find the cause and in what order.
3. Keeping the problem statement visible
during the search for the cause keeps effort
focused in the right area.
 The problem statement provides the context
within which all further work takes place.
Why Setting the Problem Statement
is Important ?

27. Analyze the Problem
in Detail
(3)
Analyze what is wrong
Analyze what is right

28. Overview
Analyze the Problem in Detail
 Avoid the trap of focusing on what is
wrong, ignoring what is right; Use:
 What? question: is right or wrong
 Where? To locate the problem, where the
problem exists and where it does not.
 When? To discover the timing of the
problem, when it occurs and when it does
not, when first and last seen.
 Who: Is involved and who is not
 How? To explore extent:
• How far, how many, how much affected
Looking at the distinctions between the answers
to these questions on right and wrong will lead
to helpful insights about the problem. Sharpen
the statements as the problem becomes clearer.

29. How do you decide which questions
to ask?
 Asking questions is the key to analyzing problems. The
best questions nearly always start with:
What? Why? When?
Who? Where? How much?
Because such questions cannot be answered with a single
word, but require some form of comment
 Your problem statement and description are the best
grounds for generating the right questions.
 Hold creative thinking session to generate questions.
 Brainstorming, bug listing and reversals can all be used
in this context.

30. Analyzing what is wrong?
 Aim to develop a detailed
specification of the problem.
 Measure its scale and scope,
determining what the detailed
symptoms are and the negative
consequences they cause.
 It also needs to determine who is
involved and when and how often
the problem occurs.

31. Analyzing what is right?
 The purpose of this is to determine
what the problem is not.
 If things are going well, then they
can't be part of the problem.
1. What am I satisfied with?
2. When are things correct?
3. How much is correct?
4. Where are things correct?
5. Who is not involved?

32. (4)
Identify Likely Causes
What's different?
What has changed?
What are the most likely causes?

33. Identify Likely Causes
 Identify the differences between what you identified
and between what is right and what is wrong.
 What is Different? Distinctive symptoms, Locations,
Time (when it happens and when it doesn’t), Group (
affected or not affected)
 What has changed? Something happened to cause
the problem (when). People (skill, leadership) /
Materials (Specification, quality) / Equipment (new,
change in maintenance) / Processes (Training
processes, patterns of communications)
 What are the most likely explanations?

34. Define Actual Causes
(5)
What is the most likely explanation?
Can I prove it?

35. Define Actual Causes
 Identifying what is the most likely explanation for the
symptoms identified, is it consistent with the data collected.
 Proving the cause: Testing if the cause identified explains the
symptoms:
 Identification of the cause of a problem will almost always lead
to action designed to eliminate it, make sure it is the right
cause explains all facts at hand
 If action is taken to eliminate the wrong cause, there is a strong
possibility that your actions will only make matters worse.
 Test the assumptions that support the analysis
 Replicate the problem in a controlled environment
 Therefore, it is often worthwhile seeing if you can prove that
the most likely explanation is the actual cause.

36. Reflective Diary

37. Decision Making
 Process involves evaluating
and choosing among
available alternatives and
implementing solutions.
 It is about making choices
 These aptitudes are crucial
to leadership
 Decisions and problem
solving can be found in
human brains or technical
brains i.e. computers.

38. Decision Making
The ICES decision making
process stands for
Initiate
Criteria
Evaluate
Select

39. The ICES Process
 INITIATE: Deciding what to decide. This is the first
important stage of any decision making process -
INITIATING THE DECISION
 CRITERIA: Defining exactly what you want
 EVALUATE: Evaluating the options available
against the CRITERIA.
 SELECT: Selecting the best option

40. 6 C's of Decision Making
1. Construct: A clear picture of
precisely what must be decided.
2. Compile: A list of requirements that
must be met
3. Collect: Information on alternatives
that meet the requirements.
4. Compare: Alternatives that meet the
requirements
5. Consider: The “what might go
wrong” factor with each alternative.
6. Commit: To a decision and follow
through with it

41. Steps For Decision Making
To make sure that you are making the best choice,

42. Example

43. Ethics& Decision Making
• Ethics defines what is good/ bad;
nature of obligations or duties which
people owe both themselves and one
another.
• Business decisions are difficult; not an
extension of individual or society ethics.
However, the following support being
ethical:
Trustworthiness
Respect
Responsibility
Fairness
Caring
Citizenship
Cultures

44. Risks in decision making
Some points:
 Only risk-takers are truly
free. All decisions of
consequence involve risk.
 No such thing as
permanent security.
 It is natural to be afraid
when you risk.
 Separation anxiety is
normal when you are out
of your comfort zone

45. Risks in decision making
 Is risk necessary, desirable, have a
clear purpose and a goal.
 Do it for the right reasons, when
calm, thoughtful, and non-emotional.
 Look
pros, cons, probabilities, consequence
s, & worst case scenarios
 When possible, take one risk at a
time.
 Use Imaging and visualization
 Have a plan, a timetable with setting
SMART Goals.
 Dismiss extremely remote or
unrealistic possibilities that are
highly/extremely improbable, avoid
catastrophes whenever possible.

46. Common decision-Making errors &
Biases
Overconfidence
Immediate
Gratification
Anchoring Effect
Selective
Perception
Confirmation
framing
Availability
representation
Randomness
Sunk costs
Self-serving
Hindsight
Decision-Making Errors &
Biases

47. Common Biases and Errors
 Overconfidence Bias
– Believing too much in our own ability to make good
decisions.
 Hindsight Bias- Opposite of overconfidence
– Looking back, once the outcome has occurred, and
believing that you accurately predicted the outcome of an
event (Driver / noises in car)
 Anchoring Bias
– Using early, first received information as the basis for
making subsequent judgments. (Coroner/ Burned airplane)
 Confirmation Bias
– Using only the facts that support our decision.

48. Common Biases and Errors
 Availability Bias
– Using information that is most readily at hand.
• Recent
• Vivid
 Representative Bias
– “Mixing apples with oranges”
– Assessing the likelihood of an occurrence by trying to match it with a
preexisting category using only the facts that support our decision.
 Framing Bias:
– Decision makers are influenced by the way information is presented
– Example 85% lean meat versus 15% fat
 Escalation of Commitment: (Used car)
– Continue of failing course of action even after information have been
revealed
– Continuation is often based on the idea that one has already invested
in the course of action- May not want to admit they are wrong OR may
be investing more time and energy will make things work

49. Straightforward decisions are: Programmed
decisions, or decisions that occur frequently
enough that we develop an automated
response to them. The automated response is
called the decision rule. Example, Chain of
reactions in restaurants complaints where it is
routine to receive them
Unique and important decisions require
conscious thinking, information gathering, and
careful consideration of alternatives. These
are called non-programmed decisions.
Example, in 2005 McDonald’s Corporation
became aware of the need to respond to
growing customer concerns about health>>
Healthy alternatives
Types of Decisions

50. I- Problem Restatement Technique
 Broaden our perspective of a
problem, not to solve it
 Help us identify the central issues &
alternative solutions
 Increase the chance that the
outcome our analysis produces will
fully, not partially, resolve the
problem
Decision Making Tools

51. II- SWOT Analysis:
1- Strength
2- Weaknesses
3- Opportunities
4- Threats
Decision Making Tools

52. III- Pareto Principle:
80% of unfocussed effort
generates only 20% of
results. The remaining
80% of results are
achieved with only 20% of
the effort.
Decision Making Tools

53. Decision Making Tools
Individual Brainstorming:
1. Tends to develop fewer
ideas, but takes each
idea further
2. Can be risky for
individuals. Valuable but
strange suggestions may
appear stupid at first
sight.
Group Brainstorming:
1. It is best for generating
many ideas, but can be time
consuming
2. Needs formal rules for it to
work smoothly( Disagreements)
3. Group brainstorming
sessions are usually
enjoyable experiences,
which are great for creating
cohesion in a team
IV- Brainstorming:
No criticism of ideas, free rein is given to creativity

54. Decision Making Tools
V- Cause& Effect VI- Porter’s 5 Forces:

55. VII- Cost Benefit Analysis:
Cost/benefit analysis –
evaluating quantitatively
whether to follow a course of
action. Add up the value of the
benefits of a course of action
and subtract the costs
associated with it.
Decision Making Tools

56. VII- Six Thinking Hats-
Tools/ Framework
Creative
Positive
Objective
Feelings
Negative
Process
Avoid confusion
Parallel Thinking = cooperation

57. 6 Six Thinking Hats

58. Benefits of Using 6 Thinking Hats
 Role-playing (Put the hat on, take
the hat off, switch hats, and signal
your thinking)
 Encourage creative, parallel and
lateral thinking
 Improve communication
 Speed up decision making
 Avoid debate
 Detaching the Ego
 Occasional Use (Single Hat)
 Sequence Use

59. White Hat - Objective
Facts, Figures, Data and
Information
Questions:
 What information do we have
here?
 What information is missing?
 What information would we like
to have?
 How are we going to get the
information?

60. Red Hat – Feelings
Feelings, Intuition,
Emotions and Hunches
No need to justify the feelings.
How do I feel about this right
now?
Examples:
 My gut-feeling is that this will
not work.
 I don't like the way this is being
done.
 This proposal is terrible.
 My intuition tells me that prices
will fall soon.

61. Black Hat - Negative
Caution, Difficulty, Judgment
and Assessment
Questions:
 Is this true?
 Will it work?
 What are the weaknesses?
 What is wrong with it?
Critical
Thinking
Hat

62. Yellow Hat - Positive
Benefits, Feasibility and
Optimism
Questions:
 Why is this worth doing?
 What are the benefits?
 Why can it be done?
 Why will it work?

63. Green Hat - Creative
Creative Ideas, Alternatives,
Suggestions, and Proposals
Questions:
 Are there any additional
alternatives?
 Could we do this in a different
way?
 Could there be another
explanation?
 What are some possible
solutions and courses of
action?
Creative
Thinking
Hat

64. Blue Hat - Process
Sums it up what is learned.
Reflection on how the whole
thinking process was conducted
Examples:
 Set the agenda.
 Suggest the next steps.
 Ask for other hats.
 Ask for
summaries, conclusions,
and decisions.
Meta-Cognition
Hat

65. Problem Solving& Decision Making
Action Plan
Next 2 Months 2 Actions Partners
What
behavior
you will
work on?
To mold
this
behavior
are:
Who do I
go to for
help?

66. Proprietary Content of Sahar
Consulting, LLC.
 All the pictures used in the workbook are copyrighted and
are used SOLELY for the purpose of education and
learning ONLY not for commercial use
 This presentation is the intellectual property of, and is
proprietary to Sahar Consulting, LLC and it is not to be
disclosed, in whole or in part, without the express written
authorization of Sahar Consulting, LLC. It shall not be
duplicated or used, in whole or in part, for any purpose
other than to be educational material for the “Problem
Solving & Decision Making” workshop training for the City
Of Burbank. The presentation can’t be used in part of
whole in the same program/ similar or different programs if
not facilitated by Sahar Consulting, LLC.

67. Q&A

68. Q
&
A