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WHISKIES & SPIRITS CONFERENCE
Mark Meek, CEO
Thursday, 30 March 2017
Contents
• The Numbers
• Global
• United States
• Europe
• Asia-Pacific
• Key Global Trends
• Key Whisk(e)y Trends
Global Beer, Wine, Spirits & Cider
Summary
• Beer grew by 4.2% from 2010 to 2015 and is forecast to grow 4.8%
from 2016 to 2021.
• Wine grew by 4.4% from 2010 to 2015, but we forecast that growth
to decline -0.3% from 2016 to 2021.
• Spirits grew by 9.7% from 2010 to 2015 and are forecast to grow
1.4% from 2016 to 2021.
• Cider grew by 33.6% from 2010 to 2015 and is forecast to grow
22.6% from 2016 to 2021.
Overall
• Wine grew by 21.1% from 2010 to 2015 and is forecast to grow
20.3% from 2016 to 2021.
• Spirits grew by 26.2% from 2010 to 2015 and are forecast to grow
19.8% from 2016 to 2021.
Premium-and-Above
Source: The IWSR 2016 Global Database
Global Growth – All Qualities
489,263 483,640 485,070 486,157 483,630 474,989
322,609
343,869
356,862 366,411
379,112
390,551
146,273 150,118 149,907 146,341 143,005 141,826
57,289 55,936 54,160 53,079 53,939 55,097
23,877 24,723 25,973 26,794 27,618 28,771
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Vodka Whisk(e)y Rum Gin & Genever Tequila
Figures in ‘000s nine-litre cases
Data for domestic consumption
Source: The IWSR
Global Growth – Premium-and-Above
44,047
47,273
50,335
52,301
53,839
57,753
22,086
23,769
25,423 26,404 27,287 27,434
5,545 6,175 6,967 7,704 8,249 9,093
4,528 4,867 5,345 6,246 6,721 7,254
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Whisk(e)y Vodka Tequila Gin & Genever Rum
Figures in ‘000s nine-litre cases
Data for domestic consumption
Source: The IWSR
Overall
United States – Beer, Wine, Spirits
& Cider Summary
• Beer declined -0.3% from 2010 to 2015, but is forecast to grow 3.7% from 2016 to 2021.
• Wine grew by 9.9% from 2010 to 2015 and is forecast to grow 5.6% from 2016 to 2021.
• Spirits grew by 13.7% from 2010 to 2015 and are forecast to grow 5.2% from 2016 to 2021.
• Cider grew by 509.2% from 2010 to 2015 and is forecast to grow 45.6% from 2016 to 2021.
• Wine grew by 45.1% from 2010 to 2015 and is forecast
to grow 28.2% from 2016 to 2021.
• Spirits grew by 39.1% from 2010 to 2015 and are
forecast to grow 20.8% from 2016 to 2021.
Premium-and-Above
Source: The IWSR 2016 Global Database
United States: Growth – Premium-and-Above
14,661
15,736
17,016
18,490
19,423
22,297
16,221
17,348
18,478 18,803
19,272
19,318
4,632
5,114
5,759
6,352 6,735
7,372
2,352 2,545 2,682 2,839 2,924 3,043
1,152 1,301 1,573 1,710 1,826 1,995
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Whisk(e)y Vodka Tequila Gin & Genever Rum
Figures in ‘000s nine-litre cases
Data for domestic consumption
Source: The IWSR
United States: Fastest-Growing Spirits Brands – Premium-and-Above
Figures in ‘000s nine-litre cases
Data for domestic consumption
Source: The IWSR
1,480
800
350
329
171
Crown Royal Apple Whisky
Tito's Vodka
Hennessy VS Cognac
Jack Daniel's Tennessee Fire Whiskey
Jack Daniel's Whiskey
2014 to 2015
2014 to 2015
Online Sales in the US: Top 10 Brands
1. Bud Light
2. Tito’s Vodka
3. Corona Extra
4. Bulleit Bourbon
5. Coors Light
6. Stella Artois
7. Álamos Wine
8. Svedka Vodka
9. Absolut Vodka
10. Grey Goose Vodka
Source: The IWSR Analysis of top 20 US cities,
Drizly, Mini Bar, Total Wines pooled data 2015
Europe – Beer, Wine, Spirits &
Cider Summary
• Beer declined -2% from 2010 to 2015 and is forecast to decline -0.1%
from 2016 to 2021.
• Wine declined -5.5% from 2010 to 2015 and is forecast to decline by
-2.7% from 2016 to 2021.
• Spirits declined -6.2% from 2010 to 2015 and are forecast to decline
-0.2% from 2016 to 2021.
• Cider grew by 10.1% from 2010 to 2015 and is forecast to grow 6.3%
from 2016 to 2021.
Overall
• Wine grew by 3.8% from 2010 to 2015 and is forecast to grow 8% from
2016 to 2021.
• Spirits grew by 28.7% from 2010 to 2015 and are forecast to grow 25.1%
from 2016 to 2021.
Premium-and-Above
Source: The IWSR 2016 Global Database
United Kingdom: Growth – Premium-and-Above
1,983 2,005 2,033
2,118
2,186
2,354
357 371
453
552
686
966
172
222
245
324 359 382
224
207 229
246 278
330
10 14 22 26 32 430
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Whisk(e)y Gin & Genever Vodka Rum Tequila
Figures in ‘000s nine-litre cases
Data for domestic consumption
Source: The IWSR
United Kingdom: Fastest-Growing Spirits Brands – Premium-and-Above
Figures in ‘000s nine-litre cases
Data for domestic consumption
Source: The IWSR
121
97
83
26
25
Jack Daniel's Whiskey
Bombay Sapphire Gin
Bombay Original Gin
Tanqueray Gin
Hendrick's Gin
2014 to 2015
2014 to 2015
Asia-Pacific – Beer, Wine, Spirits &
Cider Summary
• Beer grew by 7.4% from 2010 to 2015 and is forecast to grow 8.1%
from 2016 to 2021.
• Wine grew by 29.8% from 2010 to 2015, but is forecast to decline by
-2.1% from 2016 to 2021.
• Spirits grew by 17.2% from 2010 to 2015 and are forecast to grow
2.5% from 2016 to 2021.
• Cider grew by 139.7% from 2010 to 2015 and is forecast to grow
21.4% from 2016 to 2021.
Overall
• Wine grew by 41.5% from 2010 to 2015 and is forecast to grow
36.5% from 2016 to 2021.
• Spirits declined -6.2% from 2010 to 2015, but are forecast to
grow 21.2% from 2016 to 2021.
Premium-and-Above
Source: The IWSR 2016 Global Database
Category Blur
Key Global Trends
Premiumisation Consumer Evolution
Health Consciousness Appetite for Flavours Desire for Convenience
Manifested by trends including:
- Continuing growth of craft
- Premium niches (e.g. mezcal,
Japanese whisky)
- Aged brown spirits
But economic problems limiting
premiumisation in some regions
Erosion of boundaries between
categories:
- Products spanning multiple
categories, e.g. ‘speers’
- Increased switching from one
category to another
Vodka
Cider
Premium gin/
Brown spirits
Prosecco/beer
New consumer groups
challenging the status quo:
- Millennials in developed
markets
- Female consumers and
emerging middle class in less
developed markets
- Ethnic groups in the US
Consumers adopting healthier
lifestyles and more aware of
dangers of excessive alcohol
consumption:
- Less but better trend
- Demand for ‘lighter’ drinks
- Consumption occasions
changing
- Future impact of centennials
Consumers seeking out new
experiences and tastes:
- Flavour innovation still
strong, though appears to be
slowing
- Increasing popularity of
cocktails and mixed drinks
Key factor behind many recent
developments:
- New formats, e.g. canned
wines, Heineken ‘Sub’ at
home draught beer device
- Growth of mixed drinks partly
due to convenience
- Increase in online sales
Key Whisk(e)y Trends
• Blended Scotch Whisky
• Malt Scotch Whisky
• US Whiskey
• Irish Whiskey
Overview of Total
Whisk(e)y
Headlines
• Total whisk(e)y has grown 3.1% on a three-year
CAGR to 2015, adding almost 12m cases in the
last year; this is heavily influenced by the Asia-
Pacific region.
• Whisk(e)y has grown its presence within total
spirits and the trend is set to continue.
• In addition to the Asia-Pacific, the Americas and
Africa & Middle East regions are growing;
Europe and duty free are flat; and the CIS is
declining.
• With the exception of blended Scotch, exciting
growth levels are being seen with the other
whisk(e)y segments.
+4.2%
+4,172k cases
1. Diageo
2. Beam Suntory
3. Brown-Forman
Jack Daniel’s
(+5.9%)
+3.5%
+8,676k cases
1. Diageo
2. Pernod Ricard
3. ABD
Officer’s Choice
(+22.7%)
-2.6%
-1,055k cases
1. Diageo
2. Bacardi Ltd
3. Pernod Ricard
William Lawson’s
(-3.4%)
DUTY FREE
WHISK(E)Y WORLD VIEW VOLUME DASHBOARD
AMERICAS EUROPE CIS ASIA-PACIFIC AFRICA & MIDDLE
EAST
+0.7%
+1,054k cases
1. Pernod Ricard
2. Diageo
3. Brown-Forman
Jack Daniel’s
(+7.8%)
+2.1%
-1,065k cases
1. Diageo
2. Pernod Ricard
3. Westside
Johnnie Walker
(+5.9%)
WORLD VIEW
+3.1%
+11,440k cases
1. Diageo
2. Pernod Ricard
3. ABD
Officer’s Choice
(+22.1%)
+0.8%
-353k cases
1. Diageo
2. Pernod Ricard
3. Brown-Forman
Johnnie Walker
(+1.8%)
Market Growth
Three-year CAGR
Actual cases diff
Top owners
Number one
brand
Source: IWSR 2015 volume data. Rankings based on largest volume in 2015. Three-
year volume CAGR growth % used (2012 -2015). Actual cases diff = actuals versus
previous year.
Whisk(e)y’s share of total spirits is forecast to continue to climb having seen
continued growth for the last four consecutive years.
18.4% 18.2% 18.8% 20.2% 21.6% 22.1%
10.8% 10.9%
11.5%
11.3% 11.3%
11.5%
11.8%
12.2%
12.5%
12.9%
13.3%
13.7%
14.1%
14.5%
15.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 F2016 F2017 F2018 F2019 F2020 F2021
Volumeshare
Valueshare
IWSR 2015 Data – Whisk(e)y share of total spirits
Global Whisk(e)y Value Share Global Whisk(e)y Volume Share
Source: The IWSR 2016 Global Database
Overview of Blended
Scotch Whisky
Headlines
• Blended Scotch accounts for 20% of total
whisk(e)y sales, but is the only segment to
decline.
• Correspondingly, the share of total Scotch
has fallen back considerably, particularly
for value sales.
• The top four markets for blended Scotch
are in decline. Growth comes from less
mature markets such as Mexico, Poland,
India and South Africa.
3.3%
-1.3%
5.8%
7.9%
10.2%
5.0%
7.6%
Other Whisky
Blended Scotch
US Whiskey
Canadian Whisky
Japanese Whisky
Malt Scotch
Irish Whiskey
Three-year volume CAGR growth to 2015
As we have seen, although blended Scotch accounts for more than 20% of
whisk(e)y volume, it is the only sector to experience decline.
53.5%
21.8%
10.5%
6.8%
3.2%
2.3%2%
IWSR 2015 Data – Global whisk(e)y volume
by key sector
Other Whisky Blended Scotch US Whiskey Canadian Whisky
Japanese Whisky Malt Scotch Irish Whiskey
Total whisk(e)y 3.1%
Source: The IWSR 2016 Global Database
Blended Scotch’s share of total Scotch has started to reduce in the last six years
for both value and volume.
92.9% 92.9% 92.9% 92.9% 92.5% 92.2% 91.9% 91.5% 90.9% 90.4%
87.8% 87.8%
88.1% 87.9%
86.4%
85.6%
84.8%
83.7%
82.2%
80.6%
76.0%
78.0%
80.0%
82.0%
84.0%
86.0%
88.0%
90.0%
89.0%
89.5%
90.0%
90.5%
91.0%
91.5%
92.0%
92.5%
93.0%
93.5%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ValueShare
VolumeShare
IWSR 2015 Data – Blended Scotch’s share of total Scotch
(Axis scale set to show movement)
Blended Scotch Volume Share Blended Scotch Value share
Source: The IWSR 2016 Global Database
Overview of Malt
Scotch Whisky
Headlines
• Malt Scotch accounts for 2.3% of total
whisk(e)y and has grown by 5% on a three-year
volume CAGR to 2015.
• Malt Scotch has increased its share of total
Scotch by 7pts over the last decade.
• Eight of the top 10 markets for malt Scotch are
in growth.
Although accounting for a small proportion of total Scotch sales, malt Scotch has
grown steadily over the last decade for both volume and value.
6,089 6,433 6,373 6,180 6,733 7,329 7,781 8,086 8,485 9,001
2,326,396
2,557,497
2,683,236 2,669,245
3,056,095
3,548,066
3,897,456
4,245,189
4,745,802
5,309,684
-
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
IWSR 2015 Data – Long-term malt Scotch volume in ‘000s nine-litre cases and value in $000s
USD.
Malt Volume Malt Value
Source: The IWSR 2016 Global Database
Key Whisk(e)y Trends – Blended &
Malt Scotch
High-end Scotch generally performing well
• Consumers trading up across most regions in a quest for interesting
brands and/or social status.
Mixed fortunes for blends
• Category performing well in most of key Europe, India, Japan, the
Philippines, Mexico and many parts of Africa.
• Economic trouble in the CIS, Latin America and parts of Africa and Asia
leading to falling volumes and downtrading.
• ‘Blended’ has no discernible identity in many key markets.
Interest in malts continues to expand
• Benefit from the perception of sophistication in many markets.
• The segment has also benefited from an association with high-quality
craft spirits, which are trending in several regions.
Non-age-statement whisk(e)y not universally accepted
• Many new expressions continue to be launched, but many consumers
remain sceptical and continue to see age as an important indicator of
quality.
Overview of US
Whiskey
Headlines
• US whiskey has grown consistently
throughout the last decade for both value
and volume.
• All but one of the top 10 manufacturers
are in growth.
• Amazingly in the UK, the home market of
Scotch whisky, Jack Daniel’s outperforms
the Scotch whisky category at a premium
level!
Good growth for US whiskey over 10 years, with year-on-year value growth
exceeding volume during this period.
28,295 28,974 29,444 29,689 30,468 32,326 34,522 36,812 38,972 40,852
5,343,066
5,632,472
5,926,867
6,240,538
6,610,984
7,235,867
8,041,832
8,760,705
9,521,765
10,334,234
-
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
IWSR 2015 Data – Long-term US whiskey volume in ‘000s nine-litre cases and value in $000s
USD.
US Volume US Value
Source: The IWSR 2016 Global Database
Key Whisk(e)y Trends – US
WhiskeyContinues to expand rapidly
• Approachable taste profile.
• High status of American products in many markets.
• Rise in Millennial spending power and increasing
appeal among new consumer groups.
• Craft trend and the resurgence of classic cocktails.
• Renewed interest in Bourbon and rye whiskies.
Premium-and-above segment strong
Jack Daniel’s still growing
• Dominates in many regions, especially outside the US.
• Now the largest whisk(e)y brand by volume in the UK.
• Difficulties in some emerging markets due to FX.
Flavours broadening the category’s appeal
• Sweeter, accessible taste attracts new consumers.
• Danger of over-proliferation, as in the case of vodka?
Overview of Irish
Whiskey
Headlines
• Irish whiskey sees significant growth and
shows no signs of slowing.
• The category is dominated by Jameson,
which accounts for almost 70% of sales.
• The US market is absolutely critical for
success within Irish whiskey.
Forecast
The Irish whiskey category has been growing for years and shows no signs of
stopping.
0.0
2,000.0
4,000.0
6,000.0
8,000.0
10,000.0
12,000.0
Volume‘000snine-litrecases
Irish Whiskey Sales Globally
IWSR Data to 2015 – Volume in ‘000s nine-litre cases and forecast volumes to 2021.
Source: The IWSR 2016 Global Database and forecast volumes
7.6%
9.1%
8.5%
0.8%
6.3%
-15.0%
9.1%
Total Irish Whiskey
Jameson Whiskey
Tullamore Dew Whiskey
Bushmills Whiskey
Paddy Whiskey
Powers Whiskey
All Others
IWSR 2015 Data – Irish whiskey three-year CAGR
volume change by brand
67.0%
12.1%
8.8%
2.7%
1.3%
8.0%
IWSR 2015 Data – Irish whiskey volume
share by brand
Jameson Whiskey Tullamore Dew Whiskey
Bushmills Whiskey Paddy Whiskey
Powers Whiskey All Others
1. Source: The IWSR 2016 database
2. Three-year volume CAGR 2012-2015
Accounting for almost 70% of all Irish whiskey volume in 2015, Jameson dominates
the sector not only by size, but by growth – outpacing total by 1.5pts in the latest
year (2015).
Key Whisk(e)y Trends – Irish Whiskey
Irish whiskey continues to grow well
• Follows trajectory of US whiskey in many markets.
• Performing well in the key markets of key Europe and
North America.
• Attracting interest in Australasia, Europe and Africa
where growth has primarily been driven by investment
behind Pernod Ricard’s Jameson brand.
• Producers innovating and launching premium variants,
which has helped to encourage greater exploration of
the category.
• Focusing on developing the stories behind the brands.
• Raft of new distilleries due to come on stream soon.
Overview of Japanese
Whisky
Headline
• Japanese whisky, a smaller sector of
whisk(e)y, is growing strongly as it
becomes available in more markets.
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 F2016 F2017 F2018 F2019 F2020 F2021
Volumesales‘000snine-litrecases
Japanese Whisky – IWSR 2015 volume ‘000s nine-litre cases and forecast to 2021.
Japanese
Though considerably smaller than other whisk(e)y sectors, Japanese
whisky is also on a steady upward trajectory.
Source: The IWSR 2016 Global Database
The number of countries Japanese whisky is consumed in has increased
significantly over the last decade.
10 11 14 17 28 33 38 41 45 47
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Numberofcountriesavailablein
IWSR 2015 Data – Japanese whisky – number of countries consumed in.
Source: The IWSR 2016 Global Database
Key Whisk(e)y Trends –
Japanese Whisky
Greater interest in Japanese whisky
• Premium image and reputation for high quality.
• Consumer curiosity for new and unique
products.
• Approachable taste profile.
• Volumes still small, and growth limited by
allocations.
Any Questions?

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Whiskies & Spirits Conference Summary

  • 1. WHISKIES & SPIRITS CONFERENCE Mark Meek, CEO Thursday, 30 March 2017
  • 2. Contents • The Numbers • Global • United States • Europe • Asia-Pacific • Key Global Trends • Key Whisk(e)y Trends
  • 3. Global Beer, Wine, Spirits & Cider Summary • Beer grew by 4.2% from 2010 to 2015 and is forecast to grow 4.8% from 2016 to 2021. • Wine grew by 4.4% from 2010 to 2015, but we forecast that growth to decline -0.3% from 2016 to 2021. • Spirits grew by 9.7% from 2010 to 2015 and are forecast to grow 1.4% from 2016 to 2021. • Cider grew by 33.6% from 2010 to 2015 and is forecast to grow 22.6% from 2016 to 2021. Overall • Wine grew by 21.1% from 2010 to 2015 and is forecast to grow 20.3% from 2016 to 2021. • Spirits grew by 26.2% from 2010 to 2015 and are forecast to grow 19.8% from 2016 to 2021. Premium-and-Above Source: The IWSR 2016 Global Database
  • 4. Global Growth – All Qualities 489,263 483,640 485,070 486,157 483,630 474,989 322,609 343,869 356,862 366,411 379,112 390,551 146,273 150,118 149,907 146,341 143,005 141,826 57,289 55,936 54,160 53,079 53,939 55,097 23,877 24,723 25,973 26,794 27,618 28,771 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Vodka Whisk(e)y Rum Gin & Genever Tequila Figures in ‘000s nine-litre cases Data for domestic consumption Source: The IWSR
  • 5. Global Growth – Premium-and-Above 44,047 47,273 50,335 52,301 53,839 57,753 22,086 23,769 25,423 26,404 27,287 27,434 5,545 6,175 6,967 7,704 8,249 9,093 4,528 4,867 5,345 6,246 6,721 7,254 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Whisk(e)y Vodka Tequila Gin & Genever Rum Figures in ‘000s nine-litre cases Data for domestic consumption Source: The IWSR
  • 6. Overall United States – Beer, Wine, Spirits & Cider Summary • Beer declined -0.3% from 2010 to 2015, but is forecast to grow 3.7% from 2016 to 2021. • Wine grew by 9.9% from 2010 to 2015 and is forecast to grow 5.6% from 2016 to 2021. • Spirits grew by 13.7% from 2010 to 2015 and are forecast to grow 5.2% from 2016 to 2021. • Cider grew by 509.2% from 2010 to 2015 and is forecast to grow 45.6% from 2016 to 2021. • Wine grew by 45.1% from 2010 to 2015 and is forecast to grow 28.2% from 2016 to 2021. • Spirits grew by 39.1% from 2010 to 2015 and are forecast to grow 20.8% from 2016 to 2021. Premium-and-Above Source: The IWSR 2016 Global Database
  • 7. United States: Growth – Premium-and-Above 14,661 15,736 17,016 18,490 19,423 22,297 16,221 17,348 18,478 18,803 19,272 19,318 4,632 5,114 5,759 6,352 6,735 7,372 2,352 2,545 2,682 2,839 2,924 3,043 1,152 1,301 1,573 1,710 1,826 1,995 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Whisk(e)y Vodka Tequila Gin & Genever Rum Figures in ‘000s nine-litre cases Data for domestic consumption Source: The IWSR
  • 8. United States: Fastest-Growing Spirits Brands – Premium-and-Above Figures in ‘000s nine-litre cases Data for domestic consumption Source: The IWSR 1,480 800 350 329 171 Crown Royal Apple Whisky Tito's Vodka Hennessy VS Cognac Jack Daniel's Tennessee Fire Whiskey Jack Daniel's Whiskey 2014 to 2015 2014 to 2015
  • 9. Online Sales in the US: Top 10 Brands 1. Bud Light 2. Tito’s Vodka 3. Corona Extra 4. Bulleit Bourbon 5. Coors Light 6. Stella Artois 7. Álamos Wine 8. Svedka Vodka 9. Absolut Vodka 10. Grey Goose Vodka Source: The IWSR Analysis of top 20 US cities, Drizly, Mini Bar, Total Wines pooled data 2015
  • 10. Europe – Beer, Wine, Spirits & Cider Summary • Beer declined -2% from 2010 to 2015 and is forecast to decline -0.1% from 2016 to 2021. • Wine declined -5.5% from 2010 to 2015 and is forecast to decline by -2.7% from 2016 to 2021. • Spirits declined -6.2% from 2010 to 2015 and are forecast to decline -0.2% from 2016 to 2021. • Cider grew by 10.1% from 2010 to 2015 and is forecast to grow 6.3% from 2016 to 2021. Overall • Wine grew by 3.8% from 2010 to 2015 and is forecast to grow 8% from 2016 to 2021. • Spirits grew by 28.7% from 2010 to 2015 and are forecast to grow 25.1% from 2016 to 2021. Premium-and-Above Source: The IWSR 2016 Global Database
  • 11. United Kingdom: Growth – Premium-and-Above 1,983 2,005 2,033 2,118 2,186 2,354 357 371 453 552 686 966 172 222 245 324 359 382 224 207 229 246 278 330 10 14 22 26 32 430 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Whisk(e)y Gin & Genever Vodka Rum Tequila Figures in ‘000s nine-litre cases Data for domestic consumption Source: The IWSR
  • 12. United Kingdom: Fastest-Growing Spirits Brands – Premium-and-Above Figures in ‘000s nine-litre cases Data for domestic consumption Source: The IWSR 121 97 83 26 25 Jack Daniel's Whiskey Bombay Sapphire Gin Bombay Original Gin Tanqueray Gin Hendrick's Gin 2014 to 2015 2014 to 2015
  • 13. Asia-Pacific – Beer, Wine, Spirits & Cider Summary • Beer grew by 7.4% from 2010 to 2015 and is forecast to grow 8.1% from 2016 to 2021. • Wine grew by 29.8% from 2010 to 2015, but is forecast to decline by -2.1% from 2016 to 2021. • Spirits grew by 17.2% from 2010 to 2015 and are forecast to grow 2.5% from 2016 to 2021. • Cider grew by 139.7% from 2010 to 2015 and is forecast to grow 21.4% from 2016 to 2021. Overall • Wine grew by 41.5% from 2010 to 2015 and is forecast to grow 36.5% from 2016 to 2021. • Spirits declined -6.2% from 2010 to 2015, but are forecast to grow 21.2% from 2016 to 2021. Premium-and-Above Source: The IWSR 2016 Global Database
  • 14. Category Blur Key Global Trends Premiumisation Consumer Evolution Health Consciousness Appetite for Flavours Desire for Convenience Manifested by trends including: - Continuing growth of craft - Premium niches (e.g. mezcal, Japanese whisky) - Aged brown spirits But economic problems limiting premiumisation in some regions Erosion of boundaries between categories: - Products spanning multiple categories, e.g. ‘speers’ - Increased switching from one category to another Vodka Cider Premium gin/ Brown spirits Prosecco/beer New consumer groups challenging the status quo: - Millennials in developed markets - Female consumers and emerging middle class in less developed markets - Ethnic groups in the US Consumers adopting healthier lifestyles and more aware of dangers of excessive alcohol consumption: - Less but better trend - Demand for ‘lighter’ drinks - Consumption occasions changing - Future impact of centennials Consumers seeking out new experiences and tastes: - Flavour innovation still strong, though appears to be slowing - Increasing popularity of cocktails and mixed drinks Key factor behind many recent developments: - New formats, e.g. canned wines, Heineken ‘Sub’ at home draught beer device - Growth of mixed drinks partly due to convenience - Increase in online sales
  • 15. Key Whisk(e)y Trends • Blended Scotch Whisky • Malt Scotch Whisky • US Whiskey • Irish Whiskey
  • 16. Overview of Total Whisk(e)y Headlines • Total whisk(e)y has grown 3.1% on a three-year CAGR to 2015, adding almost 12m cases in the last year; this is heavily influenced by the Asia- Pacific region. • Whisk(e)y has grown its presence within total spirits and the trend is set to continue. • In addition to the Asia-Pacific, the Americas and Africa & Middle East regions are growing; Europe and duty free are flat; and the CIS is declining. • With the exception of blended Scotch, exciting growth levels are being seen with the other whisk(e)y segments.
  • 17. +4.2% +4,172k cases 1. Diageo 2. Beam Suntory 3. Brown-Forman Jack Daniel’s (+5.9%) +3.5% +8,676k cases 1. Diageo 2. Pernod Ricard 3. ABD Officer’s Choice (+22.7%) -2.6% -1,055k cases 1. Diageo 2. Bacardi Ltd 3. Pernod Ricard William Lawson’s (-3.4%) DUTY FREE WHISK(E)Y WORLD VIEW VOLUME DASHBOARD AMERICAS EUROPE CIS ASIA-PACIFIC AFRICA & MIDDLE EAST +0.7% +1,054k cases 1. Pernod Ricard 2. Diageo 3. Brown-Forman Jack Daniel’s (+7.8%) +2.1% -1,065k cases 1. Diageo 2. Pernod Ricard 3. Westside Johnnie Walker (+5.9%) WORLD VIEW +3.1% +11,440k cases 1. Diageo 2. Pernod Ricard 3. ABD Officer’s Choice (+22.1%) +0.8% -353k cases 1. Diageo 2. Pernod Ricard 3. Brown-Forman Johnnie Walker (+1.8%) Market Growth Three-year CAGR Actual cases diff Top owners Number one brand Source: IWSR 2015 volume data. Rankings based on largest volume in 2015. Three- year volume CAGR growth % used (2012 -2015). Actual cases diff = actuals versus previous year.
  • 18. Whisk(e)y’s share of total spirits is forecast to continue to climb having seen continued growth for the last four consecutive years. 18.4% 18.2% 18.8% 20.2% 21.6% 22.1% 10.8% 10.9% 11.5% 11.3% 11.3% 11.5% 11.8% 12.2% 12.5% 12.9% 13.3% 13.7% 14.1% 14.5% 15.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 F2016 F2017 F2018 F2019 F2020 F2021 Volumeshare Valueshare IWSR 2015 Data – Whisk(e)y share of total spirits Global Whisk(e)y Value Share Global Whisk(e)y Volume Share Source: The IWSR 2016 Global Database
  • 19. Overview of Blended Scotch Whisky Headlines • Blended Scotch accounts for 20% of total whisk(e)y sales, but is the only segment to decline. • Correspondingly, the share of total Scotch has fallen back considerably, particularly for value sales. • The top four markets for blended Scotch are in decline. Growth comes from less mature markets such as Mexico, Poland, India and South Africa.
  • 20. 3.3% -1.3% 5.8% 7.9% 10.2% 5.0% 7.6% Other Whisky Blended Scotch US Whiskey Canadian Whisky Japanese Whisky Malt Scotch Irish Whiskey Three-year volume CAGR growth to 2015 As we have seen, although blended Scotch accounts for more than 20% of whisk(e)y volume, it is the only sector to experience decline. 53.5% 21.8% 10.5% 6.8% 3.2% 2.3%2% IWSR 2015 Data – Global whisk(e)y volume by key sector Other Whisky Blended Scotch US Whiskey Canadian Whisky Japanese Whisky Malt Scotch Irish Whiskey Total whisk(e)y 3.1% Source: The IWSR 2016 Global Database
  • 21. Blended Scotch’s share of total Scotch has started to reduce in the last six years for both value and volume. 92.9% 92.9% 92.9% 92.9% 92.5% 92.2% 91.9% 91.5% 90.9% 90.4% 87.8% 87.8% 88.1% 87.9% 86.4% 85.6% 84.8% 83.7% 82.2% 80.6% 76.0% 78.0% 80.0% 82.0% 84.0% 86.0% 88.0% 90.0% 89.0% 89.5% 90.0% 90.5% 91.0% 91.5% 92.0% 92.5% 93.0% 93.5% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 ValueShare VolumeShare IWSR 2015 Data – Blended Scotch’s share of total Scotch (Axis scale set to show movement) Blended Scotch Volume Share Blended Scotch Value share Source: The IWSR 2016 Global Database
  • 22. Overview of Malt Scotch Whisky Headlines • Malt Scotch accounts for 2.3% of total whisk(e)y and has grown by 5% on a three-year volume CAGR to 2015. • Malt Scotch has increased its share of total Scotch by 7pts over the last decade. • Eight of the top 10 markets for malt Scotch are in growth.
  • 23. Although accounting for a small proportion of total Scotch sales, malt Scotch has grown steadily over the last decade for both volume and value. 6,089 6,433 6,373 6,180 6,733 7,329 7,781 8,086 8,485 9,001 2,326,396 2,557,497 2,683,236 2,669,245 3,056,095 3,548,066 3,897,456 4,245,189 4,745,802 5,309,684 - 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 - 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 IWSR 2015 Data – Long-term malt Scotch volume in ‘000s nine-litre cases and value in $000s USD. Malt Volume Malt Value Source: The IWSR 2016 Global Database
  • 24. Key Whisk(e)y Trends – Blended & Malt Scotch High-end Scotch generally performing well • Consumers trading up across most regions in a quest for interesting brands and/or social status. Mixed fortunes for blends • Category performing well in most of key Europe, India, Japan, the Philippines, Mexico and many parts of Africa. • Economic trouble in the CIS, Latin America and parts of Africa and Asia leading to falling volumes and downtrading. • ‘Blended’ has no discernible identity in many key markets. Interest in malts continues to expand • Benefit from the perception of sophistication in many markets. • The segment has also benefited from an association with high-quality craft spirits, which are trending in several regions. Non-age-statement whisk(e)y not universally accepted • Many new expressions continue to be launched, but many consumers remain sceptical and continue to see age as an important indicator of quality.
  • 25. Overview of US Whiskey Headlines • US whiskey has grown consistently throughout the last decade for both value and volume. • All but one of the top 10 manufacturers are in growth. • Amazingly in the UK, the home market of Scotch whisky, Jack Daniel’s outperforms the Scotch whisky category at a premium level!
  • 26. Good growth for US whiskey over 10 years, with year-on-year value growth exceeding volume during this period. 28,295 28,974 29,444 29,689 30,468 32,326 34,522 36,812 38,972 40,852 5,343,066 5,632,472 5,926,867 6,240,538 6,610,984 7,235,867 8,041,832 8,760,705 9,521,765 10,334,234 - 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 IWSR 2015 Data – Long-term US whiskey volume in ‘000s nine-litre cases and value in $000s USD. US Volume US Value Source: The IWSR 2016 Global Database
  • 27. Key Whisk(e)y Trends – US WhiskeyContinues to expand rapidly • Approachable taste profile. • High status of American products in many markets. • Rise in Millennial spending power and increasing appeal among new consumer groups. • Craft trend and the resurgence of classic cocktails. • Renewed interest in Bourbon and rye whiskies. Premium-and-above segment strong Jack Daniel’s still growing • Dominates in many regions, especially outside the US. • Now the largest whisk(e)y brand by volume in the UK. • Difficulties in some emerging markets due to FX. Flavours broadening the category’s appeal • Sweeter, accessible taste attracts new consumers. • Danger of over-proliferation, as in the case of vodka?
  • 28. Overview of Irish Whiskey Headlines • Irish whiskey sees significant growth and shows no signs of slowing. • The category is dominated by Jameson, which accounts for almost 70% of sales. • The US market is absolutely critical for success within Irish whiskey.
  • 29. Forecast The Irish whiskey category has been growing for years and shows no signs of stopping. 0.0 2,000.0 4,000.0 6,000.0 8,000.0 10,000.0 12,000.0 Volume‘000snine-litrecases Irish Whiskey Sales Globally IWSR Data to 2015 – Volume in ‘000s nine-litre cases and forecast volumes to 2021. Source: The IWSR 2016 Global Database and forecast volumes
  • 30. 7.6% 9.1% 8.5% 0.8% 6.3% -15.0% 9.1% Total Irish Whiskey Jameson Whiskey Tullamore Dew Whiskey Bushmills Whiskey Paddy Whiskey Powers Whiskey All Others IWSR 2015 Data – Irish whiskey three-year CAGR volume change by brand 67.0% 12.1% 8.8% 2.7% 1.3% 8.0% IWSR 2015 Data – Irish whiskey volume share by brand Jameson Whiskey Tullamore Dew Whiskey Bushmills Whiskey Paddy Whiskey Powers Whiskey All Others 1. Source: The IWSR 2016 database 2. Three-year volume CAGR 2012-2015 Accounting for almost 70% of all Irish whiskey volume in 2015, Jameson dominates the sector not only by size, but by growth – outpacing total by 1.5pts in the latest year (2015).
  • 31. Key Whisk(e)y Trends – Irish Whiskey Irish whiskey continues to grow well • Follows trajectory of US whiskey in many markets. • Performing well in the key markets of key Europe and North America. • Attracting interest in Australasia, Europe and Africa where growth has primarily been driven by investment behind Pernod Ricard’s Jameson brand. • Producers innovating and launching premium variants, which has helped to encourage greater exploration of the category. • Focusing on developing the stories behind the brands. • Raft of new distilleries due to come on stream soon.
  • 32. Overview of Japanese Whisky Headline • Japanese whisky, a smaller sector of whisk(e)y, is growing strongly as it becomes available in more markets.
  • 33. - 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 F2016 F2017 F2018 F2019 F2020 F2021 Volumesales‘000snine-litrecases Japanese Whisky – IWSR 2015 volume ‘000s nine-litre cases and forecast to 2021. Japanese Though considerably smaller than other whisk(e)y sectors, Japanese whisky is also on a steady upward trajectory. Source: The IWSR 2016 Global Database
  • 34. The number of countries Japanese whisky is consumed in has increased significantly over the last decade. 10 11 14 17 28 33 38 41 45 47 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Numberofcountriesavailablein IWSR 2015 Data – Japanese whisky – number of countries consumed in. Source: The IWSR 2016 Global Database
  • 35. Key Whisk(e)y Trends – Japanese Whisky Greater interest in Japanese whisky • Premium image and reputation for high quality. • Consumer curiosity for new and unique products. • Approachable taste profile. • Volumes still small, and growth limited by allocations.

Editor's Notes

  1. Vodka fashionable and outgrew whiskey in 2009; Vodka usually consumed mixed. Quite young consumer group. but consumers started going out less and vodka is on-trade driven; consumers looking for more flavoursome categories Whisky declining overall due to Scotch, but variations inside category Whisky, very diverse. Mixed or straight; different whisky segments; different demographics. - next slide Flavoured spirits growing slowly overall – again, not a homogeneous category – later
  2. Vodka fashionable and outgrew whiskey in 2009; Vodka usually consumed mixed. Quite young consumer group. but consumers started going out less and vodka is on-trade driven; consumers looking for more flavoursome categories Whisky declining overall due to Scotch, but variations inside category Whisky, very diverse. Mixed or straight; different whisky segments; different demographics. - next slide Flavoured spirits growing slowly overall – again, not a homogeneous category – later
  3. Vodka fashionable and outgrew whiskey in 2009; Vodka usually consumed mixed. Quite young consumer group. but consumers started going out less and vodka is on-trade driven; consumers looking for more flavoursome categories Whisky declining overall due to Scotch, but variations inside category Whisky, very diverse. Mixed or straight; different whisky segments; different demographics. - next slide Flavoured spirits growing slowly overall – again, not a homogeneous category – later
  4. Vodka fashionable and outgrew whiskey in 2009; Vodka usually consumed mixed. Quite young consumer group. but consumers started going out less and vodka is on-trade driven; consumers looking for more flavoursome categories Whisky declining overall due to Scotch, but variations inside category Whisky, very diverse. Mixed or straight; different whisky segments; different demographics. - next slide Flavoured spirits growing slowly overall – again, not a homogeneous category – later
  5. Vodka fashionable and outgrew whiskey in 2009; Vodka usually consumed mixed. Quite young consumer group. but consumers started going out less and vodka is on-trade driven; consumers looking for more flavoursome categories Whisky declining overall due to Scotch, but variations inside category Whisky, very diverse. Mixed or straight; different whisky segments; different demographics. - next slide Flavoured spirits growing slowly overall – again, not a homogeneous category – later
  6. Vodka fashionable and outgrew whiskey in 2009; Vodka usually consumed mixed. Quite young consumer group. but consumers started going out less and vodka is on-trade driven; consumers looking for more flavoursome categories Whisky declining overall due to Scotch, but variations inside category Whisky, very diverse. Mixed or straight; different whisky segments; different demographics. - next slide Flavoured spirits growing slowly overall – again, not a homogeneous category – later