This document summarizes the key points from a presentation given at the Whiskies & Spirits Conference on March 30, 2017. It provides an overview of global and regional trends in beer, wine, spirits and cider consumption from 2010-2021. Specific sections analyze trends in whisk(e)y consumption globally as well as for blended Scotch whisky. The document presents data on market leaders, fastest growing brands and shifts in category shares for various alcohol types and regions.
2. Contents
• The Numbers
• Global
• United States
• Europe
• Asia-Pacific
• Key Global Trends
• Key Whisk(e)y Trends
3. Global Beer, Wine, Spirits & Cider
Summary
• Beer grew by 4.2% from 2010 to 2015 and is forecast to grow 4.8%
from 2016 to 2021.
• Wine grew by 4.4% from 2010 to 2015, but we forecast that growth
to decline -0.3% from 2016 to 2021.
• Spirits grew by 9.7% from 2010 to 2015 and are forecast to grow
1.4% from 2016 to 2021.
• Cider grew by 33.6% from 2010 to 2015 and is forecast to grow
22.6% from 2016 to 2021.
Overall
• Wine grew by 21.1% from 2010 to 2015 and is forecast to grow
20.3% from 2016 to 2021.
• Spirits grew by 26.2% from 2010 to 2015 and are forecast to grow
19.8% from 2016 to 2021.
Premium-and-Above
Source: The IWSR 2016 Global Database
4. Global Growth – All Qualities
489,263 483,640 485,070 486,157 483,630 474,989
322,609
343,869
356,862 366,411
379,112
390,551
146,273 150,118 149,907 146,341 143,005 141,826
57,289 55,936 54,160 53,079 53,939 55,097
23,877 24,723 25,973 26,794 27,618 28,771
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Vodka Whisk(e)y Rum Gin & Genever Tequila
Figures in ‘000s nine-litre cases
Data for domestic consumption
Source: The IWSR
6. Overall
United States – Beer, Wine, Spirits
& Cider Summary
• Beer declined -0.3% from 2010 to 2015, but is forecast to grow 3.7% from 2016 to 2021.
• Wine grew by 9.9% from 2010 to 2015 and is forecast to grow 5.6% from 2016 to 2021.
• Spirits grew by 13.7% from 2010 to 2015 and are forecast to grow 5.2% from 2016 to 2021.
• Cider grew by 509.2% from 2010 to 2015 and is forecast to grow 45.6% from 2016 to 2021.
• Wine grew by 45.1% from 2010 to 2015 and is forecast
to grow 28.2% from 2016 to 2021.
• Spirits grew by 39.1% from 2010 to 2015 and are
forecast to grow 20.8% from 2016 to 2021.
Premium-and-Above
Source: The IWSR 2016 Global Database
8. United States: Fastest-Growing Spirits Brands – Premium-and-Above
Figures in ‘000s nine-litre cases
Data for domestic consumption
Source: The IWSR
1,480
800
350
329
171
Crown Royal Apple Whisky
Tito's Vodka
Hennessy VS Cognac
Jack Daniel's Tennessee Fire Whiskey
Jack Daniel's Whiskey
2014 to 2015
2014 to 2015
9. Online Sales in the US: Top 10 Brands
1. Bud Light
2. Tito’s Vodka
3. Corona Extra
4. Bulleit Bourbon
5. Coors Light
6. Stella Artois
7. Álamos Wine
8. Svedka Vodka
9. Absolut Vodka
10. Grey Goose Vodka
Source: The IWSR Analysis of top 20 US cities,
Drizly, Mini Bar, Total Wines pooled data 2015
10. Europe – Beer, Wine, Spirits &
Cider Summary
• Beer declined -2% from 2010 to 2015 and is forecast to decline -0.1%
from 2016 to 2021.
• Wine declined -5.5% from 2010 to 2015 and is forecast to decline by
-2.7% from 2016 to 2021.
• Spirits declined -6.2% from 2010 to 2015 and are forecast to decline
-0.2% from 2016 to 2021.
• Cider grew by 10.1% from 2010 to 2015 and is forecast to grow 6.3%
from 2016 to 2021.
Overall
• Wine grew by 3.8% from 2010 to 2015 and is forecast to grow 8% from
2016 to 2021.
• Spirits grew by 28.7% from 2010 to 2015 and are forecast to grow 25.1%
from 2016 to 2021.
Premium-and-Above
Source: The IWSR 2016 Global Database
12. United Kingdom: Fastest-Growing Spirits Brands – Premium-and-Above
Figures in ‘000s nine-litre cases
Data for domestic consumption
Source: The IWSR
121
97
83
26
25
Jack Daniel's Whiskey
Bombay Sapphire Gin
Bombay Original Gin
Tanqueray Gin
Hendrick's Gin
2014 to 2015
2014 to 2015
13. Asia-Pacific – Beer, Wine, Spirits &
Cider Summary
• Beer grew by 7.4% from 2010 to 2015 and is forecast to grow 8.1%
from 2016 to 2021.
• Wine grew by 29.8% from 2010 to 2015, but is forecast to decline by
-2.1% from 2016 to 2021.
• Spirits grew by 17.2% from 2010 to 2015 and are forecast to grow
2.5% from 2016 to 2021.
• Cider grew by 139.7% from 2010 to 2015 and is forecast to grow
21.4% from 2016 to 2021.
Overall
• Wine grew by 41.5% from 2010 to 2015 and is forecast to grow
36.5% from 2016 to 2021.
• Spirits declined -6.2% from 2010 to 2015, but are forecast to
grow 21.2% from 2016 to 2021.
Premium-and-Above
Source: The IWSR 2016 Global Database
14. Category Blur
Key Global Trends
Premiumisation Consumer Evolution
Health Consciousness Appetite for Flavours Desire for Convenience
Manifested by trends including:
- Continuing growth of craft
- Premium niches (e.g. mezcal,
Japanese whisky)
- Aged brown spirits
But economic problems limiting
premiumisation in some regions
Erosion of boundaries between
categories:
- Products spanning multiple
categories, e.g. ‘speers’
- Increased switching from one
category to another
Vodka
Cider
Premium gin/
Brown spirits
Prosecco/beer
New consumer groups
challenging the status quo:
- Millennials in developed
markets
- Female consumers and
emerging middle class in less
developed markets
- Ethnic groups in the US
Consumers adopting healthier
lifestyles and more aware of
dangers of excessive alcohol
consumption:
- Less but better trend
- Demand for ‘lighter’ drinks
- Consumption occasions
changing
- Future impact of centennials
Consumers seeking out new
experiences and tastes:
- Flavour innovation still
strong, though appears to be
slowing
- Increasing popularity of
cocktails and mixed drinks
Key factor behind many recent
developments:
- New formats, e.g. canned
wines, Heineken ‘Sub’ at
home draught beer device
- Growth of mixed drinks partly
due to convenience
- Increase in online sales
16. Overview of Total
Whisk(e)y
Headlines
• Total whisk(e)y has grown 3.1% on a three-year
CAGR to 2015, adding almost 12m cases in the
last year; this is heavily influenced by the Asia-
Pacific region.
• Whisk(e)y has grown its presence within total
spirits and the trend is set to continue.
• In addition to the Asia-Pacific, the Americas and
Africa & Middle East regions are growing;
Europe and duty free are flat; and the CIS is
declining.
• With the exception of blended Scotch, exciting
growth levels are being seen with the other
whisk(e)y segments.
17. +4.2%
+4,172k cases
1. Diageo
2. Beam Suntory
3. Brown-Forman
Jack Daniel’s
(+5.9%)
+3.5%
+8,676k cases
1. Diageo
2. Pernod Ricard
3. ABD
Officer’s Choice
(+22.7%)
-2.6%
-1,055k cases
1. Diageo
2. Bacardi Ltd
3. Pernod Ricard
William Lawson’s
(-3.4%)
DUTY FREE
WHISK(E)Y WORLD VIEW VOLUME DASHBOARD
AMERICAS EUROPE CIS ASIA-PACIFIC AFRICA & MIDDLE
EAST
+0.7%
+1,054k cases
1. Pernod Ricard
2. Diageo
3. Brown-Forman
Jack Daniel’s
(+7.8%)
+2.1%
-1,065k cases
1. Diageo
2. Pernod Ricard
3. Westside
Johnnie Walker
(+5.9%)
WORLD VIEW
+3.1%
+11,440k cases
1. Diageo
2. Pernod Ricard
3. ABD
Officer’s Choice
(+22.1%)
+0.8%
-353k cases
1. Diageo
2. Pernod Ricard
3. Brown-Forman
Johnnie Walker
(+1.8%)
Market Growth
Three-year CAGR
Actual cases diff
Top owners
Number one
brand
Source: IWSR 2015 volume data. Rankings based on largest volume in 2015. Three-
year volume CAGR growth % used (2012 -2015). Actual cases diff = actuals versus
previous year.
18. Whisk(e)y’s share of total spirits is forecast to continue to climb having seen
continued growth for the last four consecutive years.
18.4% 18.2% 18.8% 20.2% 21.6% 22.1%
10.8% 10.9%
11.5%
11.3% 11.3%
11.5%
11.8%
12.2%
12.5%
12.9%
13.3%
13.7%
14.1%
14.5%
15.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 F2016 F2017 F2018 F2019 F2020 F2021
Volumeshare
Valueshare
IWSR 2015 Data – Whisk(e)y share of total spirits
Global Whisk(e)y Value Share Global Whisk(e)y Volume Share
Source: The IWSR 2016 Global Database
19. Overview of Blended
Scotch Whisky
Headlines
• Blended Scotch accounts for 20% of total
whisk(e)y sales, but is the only segment to
decline.
• Correspondingly, the share of total Scotch
has fallen back considerably, particularly
for value sales.
• The top four markets for blended Scotch
are in decline. Growth comes from less
mature markets such as Mexico, Poland,
India and South Africa.
20. 3.3%
-1.3%
5.8%
7.9%
10.2%
5.0%
7.6%
Other Whisky
Blended Scotch
US Whiskey
Canadian Whisky
Japanese Whisky
Malt Scotch
Irish Whiskey
Three-year volume CAGR growth to 2015
As we have seen, although blended Scotch accounts for more than 20% of
whisk(e)y volume, it is the only sector to experience decline.
53.5%
21.8%
10.5%
6.8%
3.2%
2.3%2%
IWSR 2015 Data – Global whisk(e)y volume
by key sector
Other Whisky Blended Scotch US Whiskey Canadian Whisky
Japanese Whisky Malt Scotch Irish Whiskey
Total whisk(e)y 3.1%
Source: The IWSR 2016 Global Database
21. Blended Scotch’s share of total Scotch has started to reduce in the last six years
for both value and volume.
92.9% 92.9% 92.9% 92.9% 92.5% 92.2% 91.9% 91.5% 90.9% 90.4%
87.8% 87.8%
88.1% 87.9%
86.4%
85.6%
84.8%
83.7%
82.2%
80.6%
76.0%
78.0%
80.0%
82.0%
84.0%
86.0%
88.0%
90.0%
89.0%
89.5%
90.0%
90.5%
91.0%
91.5%
92.0%
92.5%
93.0%
93.5%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ValueShare
VolumeShare
IWSR 2015 Data – Blended Scotch’s share of total Scotch
(Axis scale set to show movement)
Blended Scotch Volume Share Blended Scotch Value share
Source: The IWSR 2016 Global Database
22. Overview of Malt
Scotch Whisky
Headlines
• Malt Scotch accounts for 2.3% of total
whisk(e)y and has grown by 5% on a three-year
volume CAGR to 2015.
• Malt Scotch has increased its share of total
Scotch by 7pts over the last decade.
• Eight of the top 10 markets for malt Scotch are
in growth.
23. Although accounting for a small proportion of total Scotch sales, malt Scotch has
grown steadily over the last decade for both volume and value.
6,089 6,433 6,373 6,180 6,733 7,329 7,781 8,086 8,485 9,001
2,326,396
2,557,497
2,683,236 2,669,245
3,056,095
3,548,066
3,897,456
4,245,189
4,745,802
5,309,684
-
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
IWSR 2015 Data – Long-term malt Scotch volume in ‘000s nine-litre cases and value in $000s
USD.
Malt Volume Malt Value
Source: The IWSR 2016 Global Database
24. Key Whisk(e)y Trends – Blended &
Malt Scotch
High-end Scotch generally performing well
• Consumers trading up across most regions in a quest for interesting
brands and/or social status.
Mixed fortunes for blends
• Category performing well in most of key Europe, India, Japan, the
Philippines, Mexico and many parts of Africa.
• Economic trouble in the CIS, Latin America and parts of Africa and Asia
leading to falling volumes and downtrading.
• ‘Blended’ has no discernible identity in many key markets.
Interest in malts continues to expand
• Benefit from the perception of sophistication in many markets.
• The segment has also benefited from an association with high-quality
craft spirits, which are trending in several regions.
Non-age-statement whisk(e)y not universally accepted
• Many new expressions continue to be launched, but many consumers
remain sceptical and continue to see age as an important indicator of
quality.
25. Overview of US
Whiskey
Headlines
• US whiskey has grown consistently
throughout the last decade for both value
and volume.
• All but one of the top 10 manufacturers
are in growth.
• Amazingly in the UK, the home market of
Scotch whisky, Jack Daniel’s outperforms
the Scotch whisky category at a premium
level!
26. Good growth for US whiskey over 10 years, with year-on-year value growth
exceeding volume during this period.
28,295 28,974 29,444 29,689 30,468 32,326 34,522 36,812 38,972 40,852
5,343,066
5,632,472
5,926,867
6,240,538
6,610,984
7,235,867
8,041,832
8,760,705
9,521,765
10,334,234
-
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
IWSR 2015 Data – Long-term US whiskey volume in ‘000s nine-litre cases and value in $000s
USD.
US Volume US Value
Source: The IWSR 2016 Global Database
27. Key Whisk(e)y Trends – US
WhiskeyContinues to expand rapidly
• Approachable taste profile.
• High status of American products in many markets.
• Rise in Millennial spending power and increasing
appeal among new consumer groups.
• Craft trend and the resurgence of classic cocktails.
• Renewed interest in Bourbon and rye whiskies.
Premium-and-above segment strong
Jack Daniel’s still growing
• Dominates in many regions, especially outside the US.
• Now the largest whisk(e)y brand by volume in the UK.
• Difficulties in some emerging markets due to FX.
Flavours broadening the category’s appeal
• Sweeter, accessible taste attracts new consumers.
• Danger of over-proliferation, as in the case of vodka?
28. Overview of Irish
Whiskey
Headlines
• Irish whiskey sees significant growth and
shows no signs of slowing.
• The category is dominated by Jameson,
which accounts for almost 70% of sales.
• The US market is absolutely critical for
success within Irish whiskey.
29. Forecast
The Irish whiskey category has been growing for years and shows no signs of
stopping.
0.0
2,000.0
4,000.0
6,000.0
8,000.0
10,000.0
12,000.0
Volume‘000snine-litrecases
Irish Whiskey Sales Globally
IWSR Data to 2015 – Volume in ‘000s nine-litre cases and forecast volumes to 2021.
Source: The IWSR 2016 Global Database and forecast volumes
30. 7.6%
9.1%
8.5%
0.8%
6.3%
-15.0%
9.1%
Total Irish Whiskey
Jameson Whiskey
Tullamore Dew Whiskey
Bushmills Whiskey
Paddy Whiskey
Powers Whiskey
All Others
IWSR 2015 Data – Irish whiskey three-year CAGR
volume change by brand
67.0%
12.1%
8.8%
2.7%
1.3%
8.0%
IWSR 2015 Data – Irish whiskey volume
share by brand
Jameson Whiskey Tullamore Dew Whiskey
Bushmills Whiskey Paddy Whiskey
Powers Whiskey All Others
1. Source: The IWSR 2016 database
2. Three-year volume CAGR 2012-2015
Accounting for almost 70% of all Irish whiskey volume in 2015, Jameson dominates
the sector not only by size, but by growth – outpacing total by 1.5pts in the latest
year (2015).
31. Key Whisk(e)y Trends – Irish Whiskey
Irish whiskey continues to grow well
• Follows trajectory of US whiskey in many markets.
• Performing well in the key markets of key Europe and
North America.
• Attracting interest in Australasia, Europe and Africa
where growth has primarily been driven by investment
behind Pernod Ricard’s Jameson brand.
• Producers innovating and launching premium variants,
which has helped to encourage greater exploration of
the category.
• Focusing on developing the stories behind the brands.
• Raft of new distilleries due to come on stream soon.
33. -
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 F2016 F2017 F2018 F2019 F2020 F2021
Volumesales‘000snine-litrecases
Japanese Whisky – IWSR 2015 volume ‘000s nine-litre cases and forecast to 2021.
Japanese
Though considerably smaller than other whisk(e)y sectors, Japanese
whisky is also on a steady upward trajectory.
Source: The IWSR 2016 Global Database
34. The number of countries Japanese whisky is consumed in has increased
significantly over the last decade.
10 11 14 17 28 33 38 41 45 47
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Numberofcountriesavailablein
IWSR 2015 Data – Japanese whisky – number of countries consumed in.
Source: The IWSR 2016 Global Database
35. Key Whisk(e)y Trends –
Japanese Whisky
Greater interest in Japanese whisky
• Premium image and reputation for high quality.
• Consumer curiosity for new and unique
products.
• Approachable taste profile.
• Volumes still small, and growth limited by
allocations.
Vodka fashionable and outgrew whiskey in 2009;
Vodka usually consumed mixed. Quite young consumer group.
but consumers started going out less and vodka is on-trade driven; consumers looking for more flavoursome categories
Whisky declining overall due to Scotch, but variations inside category
Whisky, very diverse. Mixed or straight; different whisky segments; different demographics. - next slide
Flavoured spirits growing slowly overall – again, not a homogeneous category – later
Vodka fashionable and outgrew whiskey in 2009;
Vodka usually consumed mixed. Quite young consumer group.
but consumers started going out less and vodka is on-trade driven; consumers looking for more flavoursome categories
Whisky declining overall due to Scotch, but variations inside category
Whisky, very diverse. Mixed or straight; different whisky segments; different demographics. - next slide
Flavoured spirits growing slowly overall – again, not a homogeneous category – later
Vodka fashionable and outgrew whiskey in 2009;
Vodka usually consumed mixed. Quite young consumer group.
but consumers started going out less and vodka is on-trade driven; consumers looking for more flavoursome categories
Whisky declining overall due to Scotch, but variations inside category
Whisky, very diverse. Mixed or straight; different whisky segments; different demographics. - next slide
Flavoured spirits growing slowly overall – again, not a homogeneous category – later
Vodka fashionable and outgrew whiskey in 2009;
Vodka usually consumed mixed. Quite young consumer group.
but consumers started going out less and vodka is on-trade driven; consumers looking for more flavoursome categories
Whisky declining overall due to Scotch, but variations inside category
Whisky, very diverse. Mixed or straight; different whisky segments; different demographics. - next slide
Flavoured spirits growing slowly overall – again, not a homogeneous category – later
Vodka fashionable and outgrew whiskey in 2009;
Vodka usually consumed mixed. Quite young consumer group.
but consumers started going out less and vodka is on-trade driven; consumers looking for more flavoursome categories
Whisky declining overall due to Scotch, but variations inside category
Whisky, very diverse. Mixed or straight; different whisky segments; different demographics. - next slide
Flavoured spirits growing slowly overall – again, not a homogeneous category – later
Vodka fashionable and outgrew whiskey in 2009;
Vodka usually consumed mixed. Quite young consumer group.
but consumers started going out less and vodka is on-trade driven; consumers looking for more flavoursome categories
Whisky declining overall due to Scotch, but variations inside category
Whisky, very diverse. Mixed or straight; different whisky segments; different demographics. - next slide
Flavoured spirits growing slowly overall – again, not a homogeneous category – later