10. FEATURESFEATURES
Driver Type: Single Driver/Team Driver
Service Level: Standard/Expedited
Driver ID
Company
Weather Information
Tra c Information
Temporal Features
15. Mobile App - Human Error
Carrier Portal - Human Error
Hub Logistics Worker - Human Error
Tesla Logistics Worker - Human Error
Data Processing - Logical Errors
35. Point Estimate "ETA" Neglects Uncertainty
Model Output is Posterior Predictive Distribution
Need to schedule car pickup date
p( |Data) =
∫
p( |θ)p(θ|Data)dθy
⋆
y
⋆
36. customer pickup date (action)
car arrival time at service center (rv)
Loss function
Late Arrivals Damage Brand
Storage Costs
Working Capital Costs
a ∈
y
⋆
L(a, )y
⋆
38. References
1. Dempster, A., Laird, N., & Rubin, D. (1977). Maximum Likelihood from Incomplete Data via the EM Algorithm. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B
(Methodological), 39(1), 1-38.
2. Kuo L., Smith A.F.M., MacEachern S., West M. (1992) Bayesian Computations in Survival Models Via the Gibbs Sampler. In: Klein J.P., Goel P.K. (eds) Survival Analysis:
State of the Art. Nato Science (Series E: Applied Sciences), vol 211. Springer, Dordrecht
3. Michael D. Escobar & Mike West (1995) Bayesian Density Estimation and Inference Using Mixtures, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 90:430, 577-588,
DOI: 10.1080/01621459.1995.10476550
4. Radford M. Neal (2000) Markov Chain Sampling Methods for Dirichlet Process Mixture Models, Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 9:2, 249-265, DOI:
10.1080/10618600.2000.10474879