Estimate and Measure. Minimize work, maximize value. Part 1
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This document discusses various metrics used for estimating and measuring work. It begins with warnings about optimizing the wrong metrics and how estimates can become commitments. Popular estimation techniques like story points and t-shirt sizing are described along with their benefits and drawbacks. Common work metrics are then outlined such as work in progress, queue size, velocity and throughput. The document cautions that leading metrics optimized for can have unintended consequences for lagging metrics. Finally, it provides resources for further reading on estimation, metrics and measurement.
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Estimate and Measure. Minimize work, maximize value. Part 1
- 1. Estimate and Measure Jurgen Appelo @jurgenappelo Minimize work, maximize value Wednesday 26 August 2020, 18:00 CEST Part 1
- 2. The Wells Fargo account fraud scandal Photo by Jack Cohen on Unsplash Be careful of which metrics you optimize.
- 3. At the end of this session, you will… Understand the point of estimation Have an overview of popular work metrics
- 4. Words of warning Estimation and forecasts Estimate and Measure Work Metrics Wrapping up
- 5. “What gets measured gets managed.” Peter F. Drucker never said this!
- 6. Be careful of what you measure! “What gets measured gets managed - even when it's pointless to measure and manage it, and even if it harms the purpose of the organisation to do so.” – V.F. Ridgway Photo by Annie Spratt on Unsplash
- 7. “Whenever there is fear, you will get wrong figures.” W. Edwards Deming
- 8. Words of warning Estimation and forecasts Estimate and Measure Work Metrics Wrapping up
- 9. Humans desire estimates Photo by Nathan Fertig on Unsplash Customers have a right to know: How much will it cost? When will we get it?
- 10. Forecast is often a better word Photo by Felix Mittermeier on Unsplash We estimate Capacity + Risk We forecast Effort + Value
- 11. Benefits Great way to capture uncertainty Relative sizing is easy to do No commitment to hours of work Drawbacks Only about effort, not risk or value Not meant to be converted to time Not helpful in volatile environments https://www.scrum-tips.com/2016/03/05/how-to-choose-a-reference-task/ Story Points
- 12. Benefits Great when there’s little information More intuitive than story points Prevents analysis paralysis Drawback You can't add them up (Well, you're not supposed to) T-Shirt Sizing
- 13. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confidence_interval Confidence Intervals Benefits Better expresses the uncertainty Forecasting based on min/max limits Drawback Assumes a normal distribution Still not based on real sample data “I feel 95% sure the effort is between 10 and 20 hours of work.”
- 14. Problem 1: Estimation costs time Photo by You X Ventures on Unsplash
- 15. Problem 2: Estimates turn into commitments Photo by Markus Winkler on Unsplash
- 16. Problem 3: Parkinson’s Law Photo by Susan Yin on Unsplash “Work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion.”
- 17. Problem 4: Estimation without data is risky Photo by Jack Sloop on Unsplash
- 18. #NoEstimates doesn’t mean no estimates, ever. It means forecasts based on data over commitments based on wishful thinking.
- 19. Words of warning Estimation and forecasts Estimate and Measure Work Metrics Wrapping up
- 20. Work In Progress, Queue Size Velocity, Throughput NPS, Fit for Purpose Conversion Rate, Revenue Work Output Outcome Impact Leading vs Lagging Metrics Warning! Targets for leading metrics may have unintended consequences for lagging metrics. Leading Lagging
- 21. Work Metrics Photo by Robert Bye on Unsplash
- 22. Percentage of customer requests rejected https://productcoalition.com/8-different-ways-to-organize-your-backlog-to-make-it-more-impactful-a472684d093b Request Rejection Rate “OK” “NO”
- 23. Backlog To Do Doing Done Queue Size The number of work items in a specific stage.
- 24. Backlog To Do Doing Done Wait Time The time elapsed since a work item arrived in a specific stage. 3 days 2 days 1 day
- 25. Backlog To Do Doing Done Work in Progress The number of work items started but not finished.
- 26. Backlog To Do Doing Done 3 days 2 days 1 day 4 days Total Wait Time The time elapsed since a work item was accepted. 7 days
- 27. Queue Management The 4th waiting customer gets all their groceries for free!
- 28. Where did my time go? Time Grid
- 29. https://twitter.com/jaunedesienne/status/1296827857814126599 https://twitter.com/stiefkind/status/1296893183054557186 Time tracking with LEGO Time tracking with a calendar
- 30. Output Metrics Photo by Sasikan Ulevik on Unsplash
- 31. Words of warning Estimation and forecasts Estimate and Measure Work Metrics Wrapping up
- 34. Q & A