The document discusses several megatrends and changes that are shaping the global software ecosystem over the next decade, including the rise of cloud computing, global software development, evolving business models, and increasing mobility. It identifies some of these changes as important for companies to react to immediately, such as the move to cloud platforms and new revenue models. The document tasks participants with discussing which trends are most relevant to their businesses and how they might impact them. Participants are also asked to develop two scenarios for the Finnish software industry by 2022 that take into account the most significant changes.

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Signaalisessio 5.11.2010
Kari Ryynänen
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Introduction
 A great number of megatrends and changes are currently shaping
the global business landscape and also the global software
ecosystem.
 Timescale and scope of this document and session is changes in
the global software ecosystem in the following decade, that is until
year 2020.
 Purpose of this document and session is to provide information as a
base for discussions for actions to be taken. We don’t try to present
any potential business scenarios, visions, exact technological
roadmaps, key technologies nor precise changes.
 If reacted correctly, both megatrends and changes as well early
adoption of emerging technologies provide us huge business
potential and competitive advantage in the following years.
 Anyhow, all stakeholders must be prepared for radical changes in
their thinking and ways of working.
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Part 1: Some identified
changes in the global
software ecosystem
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Määritelmiä
 Megatrendi: Megatrendillä (puhutaan myös mm. kehityksen suurista
aalloista tai linjoista) tarkoitetaan yleensä sellaista ilmiötä tai
ilmiökokonaisuutta, jolla voidaan nähdä olevan yleinen jo
toteutuneen kehityksen perusteella tunnistettavissa oleva suunta ja
jonka uskotaan jatkuvan samansuuntaisesti myös tulevaisuudessa
 Change driver: Muutosvoima, merkittävä (yksittäinen) muutos.
 Signal: (Heikko) signaali on merkki asioista, tapahtumista jne., joista
voi tulevaisuudessa tulla jotain merkittävää ja suurta eli trendejä tai
peräti megatrendejä tai muutosvoimia.
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Some megatrends and change drivers
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Open
Everything
Cloud
Computing
Evolving
Software
Platforms
Global
Software
Development
and Global
Sourcing
Rise of BRIC
and Other
Developing
Countries
Global War of
Talents
New Needs
Requires New
Solutions
Understanding
Customers and
Ecosystems
Sustainable
Development
and Green
Software
Evolution of
Business
Models and
Revenue
Socializing and
Collaborating
Software
Development
Mobility and
Connectivity in
Digital Society
Megatrend
-follow
Everything is
Programmable
Change driver
-understand
Change driver
-react
Emerging
technologies
?
?
?
?
?
Ageing
Consumerizati
on of IT

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Megatrends – enabling and challenging
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Rise of BRIC
and Other
Developing
Countries
Global War of
Talents
Sustainable
Development
and Green
Software
Both in India and China technology, services and outsourcing, but also local
markets, are growing rapidly due to huge GDP growth. Russia and Brazil and
many developing countries are on their own ways towards the same target with
already existing markets for early adaptors or even mainstream customers.
Talented young scientists, designers, and entrepreneurs can be attracted
anywhere by the right incentives, professional opportunities, and creative
ambiance. How we can attractive, if we are compared with Silicon Valley,
Singapore, Bangalore and other innovation hotspots?
Sustainable development and demand for green ICT includes demand for green
software. How your software can be green?
Consumerizati
on of IT
The trend in many technologies is that new technology first emerges in the
consumer markets and then spreads into business; good examples are instant
messaging, video games, different new gadgets and social environments. In the
big picture this should also be seen as shift of IT and software innovations from
enterprises and other companies to homes and individuals.
Ageing
The world's population is ageing. It is happening because we live longer, and
because there will be relatively more elderly than youths the next decades.
Finland and Japan will phase this first, other industrialized countries follow us after
5 years. Is there need for solutions, talents or competences?

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Change drivers – react immediately
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Open
Everything
Cloud
Computing
Evolving
Software
Platforms
Global
Software
Development
and Global
Sourcing
Evolution of
Business
Models and
Revenue
Open source and other open innovations and settings like open leadership
changes the way how software creates income for a company. How a company
can benefit from open innovation models without giving away the full control of
their innovation? Share and utilize.
Platforms, architectures, standard interfaces and application stores can be used
as cost and time effective base when implementing and delivering software
solutions to business processes and off-the-shelf products to companies and
consumers.
Cloud computing (virtual infrastructures, everything as service, XaaS) changes the
way software is delivered and used, but also transforms revenue of the software
work from traditional licensing.
Collaborative, shared software development process within a value net and
simultaneous outsourcing and insourcing of competencies and technologies
changes the way you create your software.
Instead of traditional software business model (licence fee+local client-server
installation) there are many possible choices for delivery and service models, as
well for revenue models. Models based on advertising and subscription are reality
also within software industry, as well is viral business.

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What about these – understand them
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Socializing and
Collaborating
Software
Development
Everything is
Programmable
Understanding
Customers and
Ecosystems
Evolution from vendor-centric collaboration towards user and community centric
collaboration will give pressure to new software development paradigmas like agile
methods. Software development is also both individualisating and socializing the
same time, how does it fit into your processes and competences?
Ubiquitous and embedded systems are increasingly used everywhere. More and
more services, products, solutions and processes are dependent of software.
Understanding the big issues (society, globalization, markets, ecosystems) and
end users (consumers, organizations and their employees) instead of technology
might give you a clear business advantage. How do you know your customers
culture or religion, and society they are living in? What about customer
experience?
Mobility and
Connectivity in
Digital Society
Investments and innovations to reduce digital divide between industrialized and
developing countries, but also within countries, companies and even between
individuals are growing rapidly. And fast growing adoption of mobile devices and
need for content will have a significant impact on the software industry as need of
new solutions.
New Needs
Requires New
Solutions
Good business innovations are rarely technological innovations. They are often
business or value model or process innovations with hi-tech backbone (software,
communication, media content), and they are often planned to mass markets.
SME’s can challenge conventional ways of doing business.

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Some emerging technologies – your bet?
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?
?
?
?
?
?
? ?
? ?

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Tasks
 Ei yksittäisen signaalin tai teknologian näkökulmaa (tällä kertaa)!
 Keskustelkaa paikkakunnittain seuraavista aiheista:
• Ovatko esitetyt muutokset mielestänne relevantteja?
• Oletteko tunnistaneet muita merkittäviä muutoksia?
• Ovatko esitetyt muutokset mielestänne kestäviä: onko merkkejä, että
näistä muutoksista tulee ns vallitsevia tekijöitä
liiketoimintaympäristössänne?
 Valitkaa esitetyistä muutoksista muutama liiketoimintanne kannalta
merkityksellisin
• Kuinka merkityksellisimmät muutokset vaikuttavat liiketoimintaanne?
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Part 2: Scenarios
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Määritelmä
 Scenario: Skenaario on tulevaisuudenkuva tai toisen määritelmän
mukaan tulevaisuuden käsikirjoitus. Skenaariot ovat usein
moniselitteisiä ja epätäsmällisiä, mutta myös joustavia, kuvailevia ja
laaja-alaisia tulevaisuudenkuvia vaihtoehtoisista tulevaisuuksista.
Tulevaisuus ei kuitenkaan useimmiten ole deterministisesti
toteutuva todellisuutena vaan usean erilaisen vaihtoehtoisen
tulevaisuudentilan kombinaatio.
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Tasks
 Luokaa keskustelemalla paikkakunnalla Suomen ohjelmistoalalle
kaksi skenaariota, jossa olette reagoineet merkittävimmiksi
valitsemiinne muutosvoimiin.
• Antakaa skenaariolle kuvaava nimi.
• Kyseenalaistakaa vakiintuneet perususkomuksenne!
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Part 3: Summary
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Mitä sitten?
 Tavoitteena ei ollut absoluuttisen totuuden saaminen alamme
tulevaisuudesta, vaan kerätä näkemyksiä eteenpäin jalostettaviksi.
 Eli haluamme avata uusia päätöksenteon suuntia ja opastaa
(itseämme) havaitsemaan sellaisiakin mahdollisuuksia, jotka ovat
jääneet meiltä huomaamatta.
 2010
• Software 20/20 seminaari + LinkedIn
• TBD: Finpron ja Tekesin kokoamien signaalien analysointi
• Tekesin oma strategiatyö
 2011
• TBD: skenaarioiden purkaminen toimenpidekokonaisuuksiksi
• TBD: toimenpiteet merkityksellisimpiin muutoksiin reagoimiseksi
• TBD: ennakointityö ja heikkojen signaalien kokoaminen ja jalostaminen
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Contact information
 Verso-Vertical Software Solutions 2006-2010: www.tekes.fi/verso
 Tekes-Finnish Funding Agency for Technology and Innovation :
www.tekes.fi
Mr Kari Ryynänen
Program manager, Senior Advisor
kari.ryynanen@tekes.fi
+358-40-580 5167
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