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Can we create
     a safe and just space
         for humanity ?




Kate Raworth, Senior Researcher, Oxfam
          STEPS Centre IDS
           10 October 2012
The Long View on commodity prices
The Long View on commodity prices
The Really Long View on well-being
Nine planetary boundaries




     Source: Rockström et al 2009
Kate Raworth - Can we create a safe and just space for humanity?
Understanding the human body
     France, 14th century
Understanding the human body   Understanding Planet Earth
     France, 14th century       Everywhere, 21st century
Transgressing planetary boundaries




     Source: Oxfam based on Rockström et al 2009
Resource stress   Resource scarcity
Resource stress                   Resource scarcity




   What outlook for people living in poverty?
 Land grabs   Food price crises     Water scarcity   Energy poverty
A safe operating space for humanity
A safe and just space for humanity
Doughnut dynamics
Doughnut dynamics
Doughnut dynamics
A safe and just space for humanity
Falling far below the social foundation
Ending poverty: no pressure on the planet
                               End income poverty for all:
                               0.2% of global income

  End hunger for all:
  3% of global food supply




  Electricity for all:
  1% of global CO2 emissions
Who’s putting pressure on the planet ?
50% of CO2 emissions          33% of nitrogen ‘budget’
produced by 11% of people     used to produce meat
                              for the EU
A safe and just space for humanity
Kate Raworth - Can we create a safe and just space for humanity?
Kate Raworth - Can we create a safe and just space for humanity?
Kate Raworth - Can we create a safe and just space for humanity?
Green and inclusive growth
The promise of economic growth
The reality of economic growth to date
Inclusive and sustainable economic development
 Time to reengineer economic
 development
                                      High income
                                      countries




   Emerging                       Low income
   economies                      countries
Sustainable development goals
Towards Sustainable Development Goals
One set of global goals

• Environment & development

• Targets for every country

• Common but differentiated
  responsibilities


Targets focused on:

•   Ending social deprivations
•   Respecting resource thresholds
•   Ensuring social equity
•   Raising resource efficiency
Join the doughnut debate…




www.oxfamblogs.org/doughnut

       @KateRaworth
Planetary boundaries:
a safety zone for planetary thresholds
Kate Raworth - Can we create a safe and just space for humanity?
Developed countries in the G20: CO2 vs. GDP Growth
           150%
                                                                                                                          CHN


           130%

                                                                            IND

           110%                       Zone 1:           IDN
                                   No decoupling
                                                                 KOR
           90%                                         TUR


                                         BRA
                                                                                     Zone 2:
           70%                                                                 Relative decoupling

                                                 ARG
 -2
  7
  0




           50%
 9
 1
 m
 b
 u
 d
 p
 n
 o
 a
 c
 s
2e
 r




                                                AUS
 )
 t
 (
 i




           30%                            CAN
                                    ZAF
                                                 USA
                             JPN
           10%                             MEX
                             ITA
O
w
G
C
n
h
o
r
t
i




                                           GBR
    -50%          0%                     50%           100%          150%            200%            250%   300%   350%         400%
           -10%
                                   FRA


                              DEU
           -30%                                                Zone 3:
                       RUS                               Absolute decoupling

           -50%
                                                                   Growth in GDP, 1991-2007
BRICSAMs in the G20: CO2 vs. GDP Growth
           150%
                                                                                                                          CHN


           130%

                                                                            IND

           110%                       Zone 1:           IDN
                                   No decoupling
                                                                 KOR
           90%                                         TUR


                                         BRA
                                                                                     Zone 2:
           70%                                                                 Relative decoupling

                                                 ARG
 -2
  7
  0




           50%
 9
 1
 m
 b
 u
 d
 p
 n
 o
 a
 c
 s
2e
 r




                                                AUS
 )
 t
 (
 i




           30%                            CAN
                                    ZAF
                                                 USA
                             JPN
           10%                             MEX
                             ITA
O
w
G
C
n
h
o
r
t
i




                                           GBR
    -50%          0%                     50%           100%          150%            200%            250%   300%   350%         400%
           -10%
                                   FRA


                              DEU
           -30%                                                Zone 3:
                       RUS                               Absolute decoupling

           -50%
                                                                   Growth in GDP, 1991-2007
The pressures for economic growth




Jobs, incomes, public goods     Repay public and private debts




 Tolerance and redistribution          No growth = stagnation ?
Can your country get into the doughnut?

How has the social foundation progressed
in the last 20 years?


What are the greatest social inequalities?


How has pressure on natural
resources changed over these 20 years?


What and who is causing that stress?

Where is the current economic pathway heading?

What policies and practices could bring this nation
between its social and planetary boundaries?

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Kate Raworth - Can we create a safe and just space for humanity?

  • 1. Can we create a safe and just space for humanity ? Kate Raworth, Senior Researcher, Oxfam STEPS Centre IDS 10 October 2012
  • 2. The Long View on commodity prices
  • 3. The Long View on commodity prices
  • 4. The Really Long View on well-being
  • 5. Nine planetary boundaries Source: Rockström et al 2009
  • 7. Understanding the human body France, 14th century
  • 8. Understanding the human body Understanding Planet Earth France, 14th century Everywhere, 21st century
  • 9. Transgressing planetary boundaries Source: Oxfam based on Rockström et al 2009
  • 10. Resource stress Resource scarcity
  • 11. Resource stress Resource scarcity What outlook for people living in poverty? Land grabs Food price crises Water scarcity Energy poverty
  • 12. A safe operating space for humanity
  • 13. A safe and just space for humanity
  • 17. A safe and just space for humanity
  • 18. Falling far below the social foundation
  • 19. Ending poverty: no pressure on the planet End income poverty for all: 0.2% of global income End hunger for all: 3% of global food supply Electricity for all: 1% of global CO2 emissions
  • 20. Who’s putting pressure on the planet ? 50% of CO2 emissions 33% of nitrogen ‘budget’ produced by 11% of people used to produce meat for the EU
  • 21. A safe and just space for humanity
  • 26. The promise of economic growth
  • 27. The reality of economic growth to date
  • 28. Inclusive and sustainable economic development Time to reengineer economic development High income countries Emerging Low income economies countries
  • 30. Towards Sustainable Development Goals One set of global goals • Environment & development • Targets for every country • Common but differentiated responsibilities Targets focused on: • Ending social deprivations • Respecting resource thresholds • Ensuring social equity • Raising resource efficiency
  • 31. Join the doughnut debate… www.oxfamblogs.org/doughnut @KateRaworth
  • 32. Planetary boundaries: a safety zone for planetary thresholds
  • 34. Developed countries in the G20: CO2 vs. GDP Growth 150% CHN 130% IND 110% Zone 1: IDN No decoupling KOR 90% TUR BRA Zone 2: 70% Relative decoupling ARG -2 7 0 50% 9 1 m b u d p n o a c s 2e r AUS ) t ( i 30% CAN ZAF USA JPN 10% MEX ITA O w G C n h o r t i GBR -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350% 400% -10% FRA DEU -30% Zone 3: RUS Absolute decoupling -50% Growth in GDP, 1991-2007
  • 35. BRICSAMs in the G20: CO2 vs. GDP Growth 150% CHN 130% IND 110% Zone 1: IDN No decoupling KOR 90% TUR BRA Zone 2: 70% Relative decoupling ARG -2 7 0 50% 9 1 m b u d p n o a c s 2e r AUS ) t ( i 30% CAN ZAF USA JPN 10% MEX ITA O w G C n h o r t i GBR -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350% 400% -10% FRA DEU -30% Zone 3: RUS Absolute decoupling -50% Growth in GDP, 1991-2007
  • 36. The pressures for economic growth Jobs, incomes, public goods Repay public and private debts Tolerance and redistribution No growth = stagnation ?
  • 37. Can your country get into the doughnut? How has the social foundation progressed in the last 20 years? What are the greatest social inequalities? How has pressure on natural resources changed over these 20 years? What and who is causing that stress? Where is the current economic pathway heading? What policies and practices could bring this nation between its social and planetary boundaries?

Editor's Notes

  1. Put your brand on the table.
  2. Thinking about the quality and impact of GDP growth. No country has ever got its citizens out of poverty without GDP growth. But growth has always been resource intensive so just as it gets people over the social foundation, so it starts heading towards the planetary boundaries.
  3. Thinking about the quality and impact of GDP growth. No country has ever got its citizens out of poverty without GDP growth. But growth has always been resource intensive so just as it gets people over the social foundation, so it starts heading towards the planetary boundaries.
  4. What would it look like to do a national analysis? Hand out the 2 pager. Hugh introduce the ideas, discuss group’s ideas for making it strategic to oxfam and to the country.