Presented in an Infrastructure conference (http://infrastructure.ipfedge.com/about-the-event/) organized by Bharat Chambers of Commerce on 4th February 2011 at Taj Bengal, Kolkata, Salva Resources(http://salvaresources.com/) has taken an alternative view point on Indian port growth story and shared some of its concern.
1. Indian Port Growth Story:
Other Side of the Coin
Satya Pal
Business Analyst- Infrastructure
spal@salvaresources.com
04.02.2011
“Infrastructure: The Global Growth Driver”
Hotel Taj Bengal, Kolkata, India
2. Introducing Salva Resources
Salva Resources is a global provider of key technical and commercial services to the
mining industry.
Mining Consultancy Salva Market Analytics
Exploration Management Custom Consulting
Resource Modeling Outlook Series 2011
Mine Planning Data Products
Equipment Supply Salva Report
Coal Marketing India Unlocked
Due Diligence Data Base
Infrastructure: The Global Growth Driver 1
3-4 February 2011; Hotel Taj Bengal, Kolkata, India
3. Our Locations
International Head Office Indonesian Office
Level 11, 82 Eagle Street Level 3, Bhumyhamca Sekawan Building
Brisbane, QLD 4000 Raya Cilandak KKO Street
Australia Garden Centre Cilandak Commercial Estate
Ph: +61 7 (0) 3211 9911 Jakarta, Indonesia
info@salvaresources.com Ph: +62 (81) 5164 8205
info@salvaresource.com
Indian Head Office
6th Floor, DN24
Matrix Tower, Sector V
Salt Lake City
Kolkata, 700 091
India
Ph: +91 (0) 33 6522 1030
info@salvaresources.com
Infrastructure: The Global Growth Driver 2
3-4 February 2011; Hotel Taj Bengal, Kolkata, India
5. Disclaimer
The views expressed here contain information derived from publicly available sources
that have not been independently verified. No representation or warranty is made as to
the accuracy, completeness or the reliability of the information. Any forward looking
information in this presentation has been prepared on the basis of a number of
assumptions which may prove to be incorrect. The map of India shown is for illustrative
purposes only and does not confirm to the geographical boundaries of the country. This
presentation should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by Salva
Resources.
Infrastructure: The Global Growth Driver 4
3-4 February 2011; Hotel Taj Bengal, Kolkata, India
6. Indian Port Growth Story:
Other Side of the Coin
Agenda
Current state of play
Road ahead
Concerns and suggestions
Infrastructure: The Global Growth Driver 5
3-4 February 2011; Hotel Taj Bengal, Kolkata, India
7. Current State of Play
Electricity (incl. NCE) Electricity (incl. NCE)
XIth Plan (Original Projections) XIth Plan (Revised Projected)
Roads & Bridges Roads & Bridges
Telecommunications Telecommunications
Railways (incl. MRTS) Railways (incl. MRTS)
Irrigation (incl. Irrigation (incl.
Watershed) Watershed)
Water Supply & 4.28% 1.98% Water Supply &
Sanitation Sanitation
Ports (incl. Inland Ports (incl. Inland
waterways) waterways)
Airports Airports
Storage Storage
Oil & gas pipelines Total: INR 2,056,150 Crore Total: INR 2,054,205 Crore Oil & gas pipelines
Port: INR 87,995 Crore Port: INR 40,647 Crore
Sector wise Revision in Port Investment
100
4
80
INR Thousand Crore
60 54
40 3
20 33
30
- 5
Source: Planning Commission,
XI Plan (Original Projections) XI Plan (Revised Projected) Government of India
Infrastructure: The Global Growth Driver
There has been mismatch in planning and execution especially from central sector
Centre Private
3-4 February 2011; Hotel Taj Bengal, Kolkata, India
States 6
8. Current State of Play
Sagar Island Project
Vizhinjam Port Chennai Mega Container Terminal
Project delay and overcapacity are the main reason for these shortfalls in investment
Infrastructure: The Global Growth Driver
3-4 February 2011; Hotel Taj Bengal, Kolkata, India Source: Salva Research 7
9. Current State of Play
Coal Import Demand Forecast (Mt)
500
400 387
300
233
200 231
144
100 100 154
64 87
0 36
2010 2015 2020
Coking coal Non coking coal Total
Mundra Kandla
Magdalla Haldia
Pipavav Hazira
Dhamra
Paradip
Mumbai
Jaigad Vishakhapatnam
Gangavaram
Kakinada
Mormugao
Karwar
Belekeri Krishnapatnam
New Mangalore Ennore
Chennai
Cochin Karaikal
Tuticorin
Operational ports
Demand for both Coking as well as Thermal2010 grow in medium toResearch
Infrastructure: The Global Growth DriverIndian bulk ports: coal
3-4 February 2011; Hotel Taj Bengal, Kolkata, India Source: Salva long term 8
10. Road Ahead
Mundra Kandla
Salaya Dahej
Magdalla Talsara Haldia
Hazira Kirthania Sagar Island
Pipavav Dhamra
Valsad
Dighi Paradip
Mumbai Astaranga
Gopalpur
Jaigad Vishakhapatnam
Gangavaram
Kakinada
Mormugao Machilipatnam Operational ports
Karwar
Belekeri Krishnapatnam Upcoming ports
New Mangalore Ennore
Chennai Cement Plants
Cochin Karaikal Steel Plants
Caddulur
Tuticorin
Power Plants
Infrastructure: The Global Growth Driver
Demand for differentbulk ports: 2020
3-4 February 2011; Hotel Taj Bengal, Kolkata, India
Indian coal will have regionalSource: Salva Research
bias 9
11. Road Ahead
Mega/ Ultra Mega Power Projects and major Steel plants are planning captive ports
Project name Industry Developer Capacity Coal requirement Captive Port
Mundra Thermal Power Project Power Adani Power Ltd 4620 MW 14.45 Mtpa Mundra SEZ
Ratnagiri Power JSW Energy Ltd 1200 MW 4.14 Mtpa Jaigarh port
Salaya Thermal Power Plant Power Essar Energy 1200 MW 4.20 Mtpa Salaya port
Hazira Integrated Steel Plant Steel Essar Steel 9 Mtpa 1.50 Mtpa Hazira port
Jagatsinghpur Integrated Steel Plant Steel Posco India Pvt Ltd 12 Mtpa 14.00 Mtpa Jatadhari Muhan
Kalinganagar Steeel Plant Steel Tata Steel 6 Mtpa 3.96 Mtpa Dhamra port
Or they will have a long term cargo agreement with some port
Project name Industry Developer Capacity Coal requirement Anchored Port
Tata Mundra UMPP Power Tata Power 4000 MW 15.94 Mtpa Mundra SEZ
Krishnapatnam UMPP Power Reliance Power Ltd 3960 MW 15.46 Mtpa Krishnapatnam port
Source: Salva Research
Development of ports in India will be driven by end user industry and not vice versa
Infrastructure: The Global Growth Driver
3-4 February 2011; Hotel Taj Bengal, Kolkata, India
10
12. Road Ahead
State should encourage investors and the central government should facilitate early
Infrastructure: The Global Growth Driver 11
execution of projects, projects deficit states Salva Research
Orissa port
3-4 February 2011; Hotel Taj Bengal, Kolkata, India
in port Source:
13. Road Ahead
Mumbai
Jaigad Vishakhapatnam
North Goa Gangavaram Durg
Kakinada
Machilipatnam
Mormugao
Nijampatnam
South Goa
Karwar
Belekeri
Krishnapatnam
Bellary New Mangalore Guntur
Ennore
Chennai
Cuddalore
Chitaurgarh Karaikal
Nellore
Cochin
Tuticorin
Chikmagalooru Ongole
Iron ore deposits
More detailed analysis is required while assessing the viability of a port, in a port
Infrastructure: The Global Growth Driver 12
Iron ore deposits and relevant ports in India Source: Salva Research
3-4 February 2011; Hotel Taj Bengal, Kolkata, India
surplus region
14. Concerns and Suggestions
Concerns
Potential private port projects are suffering from undue delay
In medium term Indian port will experience regional over capacity
Central government, States and Industrialists are not on a common platform
Suggestions
Centre and state government needs to work more closely for the common goal. State
should facilitate and let the market prevail
Rather than adding a new terminal in major ports, central government should
emphasize on increasing efficiency
We should not forget that our conservative spending behavior was one of the reasons
Infrastructure: The Global Growth Driver 13
why we were not badly affected by Global Financial Crisis
3-4 February 2011; Hotel Taj Bengal, Kolkata, India