2020 vision – Future proofing your business and your career Russell Beck, Head of Consulting, Impellam
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2020 vision – Future proofing your business and your career Russell Beck, Head of Consulting, Impellam
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2020 vision – Future proofing your business and your career Russell Beck, Head of Consulting, Impellam
- 1. FUTURE PROOFING YOUR BUSINESS AND YOUR CAREER
- 2. A SELECTION OF CLIENTS 6.71 YEARS AVERAGE CLIENT TENURE OF OUR CLIENTS RENEW THEIR CONTRACTS 35.5% OF OUR CUSTOMERS HAVE EXPANDED THE SCOPE OF OUR SERVICES 96% 4.14 OUT OF 5 CLIENT SATISFACTION SCORE Guidant Group
- 5. 5
- 6. 6
- 7. 7
- 10. 10 WHAT TRENDS ARE PLAYING OUT WHAT DOES THAT MEAN TO COMPANIES AND PEOPLE?
- 11. 11 WHAT TRENDS ARE PLAYING OUT WHAT DOES THAT MEAN TO COMPANIES AND PEOPLE? Urbanisation Technology Climate Politics Demography Globalisation
- 15. 15 IT’S KENYA
- 16. 1ST SATELLITE TO ORBIT MARS
- 17. IT WAS INDIA
- 18. GRAVITY: $100M MANGALYAAN PROBE: $74M CURIOSITY MISSION: $2.6BN THE COSTS
- 20. WHAT TRENDS ARE PLAYING OUT WHAT DOES THAT MEAN TO COMPANIES? WHAT DOES THAT MEAN TO PEOPLE? Urbanisation Technology Climate Politics Demography Globalisation
- 21. 21 WHAT TRENDS ARE PLAYING OUT WHAT DOES THAT MEAN TO COMPANIES AND PEOPLE?
- 22. 1. Talent will not exist in the volume business want
- 23. Answer: YES 2016 54% 2000 63% % of over 25 year olds in work with ‘only a high school education’
- 24. 2008 2016 Non-permanent workforce Permanent workforce 1. Talent will not exist in the volume business want 2. Workforces will have to be considered holistically
- 30. 1. Talent will not exist in the volume business want 2. Workforces will have to be considered holistically 3. Tech will kill jobs and democratize work (and we will LOVE it)
- 33. 1. Talent will not exist in the volume business want 2. Workforces will have to be considered holistically 3. Tech will kill jobs and democratize work 4. How do you select that?
- 34. 34
- 35. 35
- 36. 36
- 37. 1. Talent will not exist in the volume business want 2. Workforces will have to be considered holistically 3. Tech will kill jobs and democratize work 4. How do you select that? 5. Be the best
- 39. 39 WHAT TRENDS ARE PLAYING OUT WHAT DOES THAT MEAN TO COMPANIES AND PEOPLE? 1. Talent will not exist in the volume business want 2. Workforces will have to be considered holistically 3. Tech will kill jobs and democratize work 4. How do you select that? 5. Be the best
- 41. Russell Beck Head of Consulting, Impellam +44 7710 898904 uk.linkedin.com/in/russellbeck/ Russell.Beck@impellam.com Want to know more…..? Search for ‘Russell Beck’ on EventBrite or Brightalk or go to www.guidantgroup.com
Editor's Notes
- Today, we are going to look at the future of work. We are going to consider the trends playing out in the World, how companies will respond to these trends and from this how workers will need to respond in order to be successful. This is an abridged version of a seminar on the future of work.
- Guidant Group is the MSP / RPO division of Impellam, the UK’s second largest staffing company. We provide recruitment outsourcing solutions to a wide range of clients in the private and public sectors. That makes us uniquely placed to offer market intelligence and innovative thought leadership on a wide range of recruitment-related topics. Visit our website guidantgroup.com for details on lots of other webinar and white paper topics – today I’m going to talk to you about 2020 vision – the future of work.
- If you really think about it, work is quite a scary aspect. We spend a third of our awake time doing work. It dominates our lives and defines us….. whenever we meet someone new one of the first questions we are asked is “what do you do?” Work is and always has been one of the most defining aspects of our lives. It is where we meet friends, get motivated, create and socialise. But it can also drive us to utter exasperation and frustration, where we feel unvalued, unloved and taken for granted. Research shows how you feel at work directly impacts your health and, your life expectancy. Maybe the most scary aspect however is that we are going to have to keep doing it.
- The reason for this is simple; in a lot of cases we simply will not be able to afford to retire at 67. Aviva has found that the typical middle-aged worker (i.e. ‘me’) has private retirement savings worth about £54,000. That would buy an annual income of £3,327. To receive a pension equivalent to the minimum wage you need a pension pot more than 4 times this average figure. I am 47 the somewhat depressing truth, is that we have as long left in work as we have spent in it – three quarters of my remaining life will include work. If you are 30, you broadly have 45 to 50 years of work left. Yet consider what that means………. I need to work for another 30 years…….. Lets very quickly rewind…….
- 10 years ago there were no social networks
- 20 years ago I had never been on the Internet
- 30 years ago there were no computers in offices. In my lifetime, work has changed significantly, and I have as long to work before I can retire.
- Yet consider the 2nd most quoted work related headline today. <CLICK> No-one is connecting these together If we need to work for another 30 years, we will want a number of things: a career that will last that long for one thing; work that is meaningful; work that is motivating; work that will give us an income so we can continue to provide for our families. How do I get that if robots are going to take my jobs? And there is a fascinating stat here. Everyone believes this is going to happen; 2 thirds of Americans think automation will replace human jobs, yet 80% think it will affect someone else, not them.
- Whilst is may be scary for employees, consider what this means for our employers. Everything is changing for them as well. External threats come from everywhere and when you least expect them…… the economy, emerging markets, consumer’s changing choices, technology, brand, shortages of skills, competition. Whole industries which two or three years ago looked untouchable are now struggling; oil has fallen 75% in price in 18 months; who saw Lidl and Aldi coming; the largest hotel chain in the world owns no properties - AirBNB Consider how employers and how ‘the workplace’ has changed beyond recognition…… hierarchical command and control has moved to flatter structures, virtual teaming and matrix management; personal office based workplaces have morphed into open plan; 9 to 5 has shifted to 24/7; local is now global; work never ceasing with no geographical boundaries. It is all up in the, it is all happening at once and it is happening to all of us. From any perspective whether personal or corporate, to be successful in the future we need to be prepared.
- So this is what I will consider for the next 25 mins. To understand the future, we need to understand what is happening today. We need to understand the trends that are impacting, shaping and changing the world as these form the foundation of what will happen next Once we know the trends and how the world will change, we will consider and answer the question ‘SO WHAT does this mean for the businesses who employ us all, how will they respond?’ This will define how work will change in the future Once we know how companies will respond, we can consider what this means for employees and how you can protect, insulate and prepare yourselves from the change that is coming and that in many cases is already here
- Broadly there are 6 trends playing out in the world. You all know these, but you do not know quite how powerful each of these are. The world is changing and changing far faster than we realise. Going forward, if we look at the world through the rear-view mirror and make decisions based on historic experience we may well be wrong. Given the risks, it would be foolhardy to ignore these challenges. We do not have time to look at these 6 today, but to give you an inkling as to what is happening here are 5 facts to demonstrate how these trends are driving the change we are seeing in the world:
- Between 2010 and 2015 China built 55 airports
- Meanwhile – we might manage our first runway in 90 years by 2030
- The centre of innovation for mobile money is not Europe, the US or Asia.
- It is Kenya Money transfers equivalent to 40% of Kenya’s GDP pass through MPESA anually
- The first space agency to successfully put a satellite into orbit around Mars at their first attempt was not the US, Japan, China or EU.
- It was India
- And they did it for less than the cost of the movie Gravity.
- The largest producer of hydro-carbons in the world is not in the Middle East, it is not Saudi Arabia. <CLICK> It is not Russia. <CLICK> It is America.
- Those are the trends. You need to be aware of them because they are producing monumental change and when they come, they will come knocking.
- SO WHAT, does all of this actually mean to work, how will jobs and companies change? Let us see how we can future proof our companies and our careers
- 1st one is talent and the derth of it. Talent will quite simply not exist in the volume business wants to hire it. To quote the World Economic Forum: “businesses will need to put talent development and future workforce strategy front and centre to their growth The corollary of this for workers is that education will become ever more critical. Two examples: In 2020, in the US, McKenzie has estimated that there will be 3 million permanently unemployed ‘workers’ who will never get a job and whose highest educational achievement is a High School Diploma – an A level. At the same time the US will have a demand over supply of 1.8m degree qualified jobs
- Research from the Talent Board shows that for every the entire US will create only 5,375 mechanical engineers a year from 2020 - the last time I looked there were over 12,000 jobs on a single job board looking for Mechanical Engineers From a workers perspective; simply: Increasingly if you want a job you will need a qualification. And education is already proving to be a pre-requisite for success. It depends how you measure success of course, but if it is purely financial then at the top end this is true….. <CLICK> It is also true at the bottom end of the scale. <CLICK> Economies are becoming more divided with the less skilled coming off worse. Today 54% of over-25 year olds with only a high school education are in work. This is down from 63% in 2000
- You will have to consider your workforce holistically and I do not mean just temp or perm…… Globalisation and interconnection means volatility in markets and in the economic cycle will increase. In uncertain less predictable times, businesses scale back especially, as an example, by limiting their investment in new hires. But work still needs doing so to deliver yet maintain flexibility business will respond by using less permanent and more temporary labour. And this has already started, <CLICK> since 2008, the Staffing Industry Analysts (SIA) has shown that the percentage of a company’s workforce that is non-permanent has more than doubled from 8 to 20% with some companies already today already split 50/50. The SIA expects this trend to continue and company surveys show the share of workers who are non-permanently engaged will grow by 20% in just 2 years. The trend is clear, transactional, non-permanent, contract of services work is on the increase, permanent work with a long-term contract of employment, is dying. The third factor: Time based to output based remuneration – the gig economy
- This will be reinforced by the GIG economy. Simply, technology will amplify and exasperate this trend. During the industrial revolution, productivity was increased by having specialist as opposed to generalist workers. Adam Smith broke the process of making a pin into 18 discrete specialist steps increasing productivity by 5 times. Ford do the same with his manufacturing plants. Technology will enable typical white collar work to be split into its component parts, into discrete work packages or gigs, allowing companies to choose how each is delivered. Technology will also, in economic speak, lower the transactional cost of using an outsider as opposed to doing something in-house, enabling different parts to be effectively outsourced. This turns remuneration from being time-based into results based. Estimates are that HALF of us will do freelance work by 2020 and that the market for the gig economy will be worth £43bn by then – 6 times its value in 2014.
- Finally Technology has yet another card to deal that of enabling diversity. Diversity will become critical in the future. I do not mean diversity as we currently consider it, this is nothing to do with gender, race or sexuality, this is diversity of ideas, backgrounds, and cultures. Business will have to embrace this multiplicity of diversity to be successful. And this is already happening. NASA admitted that after 35 years of research, that it had “no method available to predict the onset, intensity or duration of a solar particle event.” SPEs are important they can kill unshielded people and equipment in space, they can wreck havoc with systems on Earth – notably electricity supply, so predicting them is kinda useful. NASA posted their problem on Innocentive.
- You could consider that they posted a gig on Innocentive asking for help in solving a problem. This is just a gig at the highly technical end of the spectrum than a gig of FIverr, but it is a gig nonetheless. I bet you have never heard of it. Innocentive is a web based system where anyone, literally anyone can browse problems, download data, upload a solution. Anyone no matter their background can work on anything. In NASA’s case the right person was there. Not PhD qualified, not an astronomer, nothing to do with astrophysics, not even a scientist, but a retired radio frequency engineer. His theory enabled NASA to predict SPEs with an 75% accuracy within 24 hours and an 85% accuracy within 8 hours. For his work he won a reward of $30,000. And the mighty NASA admitted that after 35 years of research, that it had “no method available to predict the onset, intensity or duration of a solar particle event.”
- Business simply can not afford or necessarily want to manage a diverse range of skills. Technology platforms like Innocentive allow problems to be posted and millions of people from diverse backgrounds look at and try to solve them. Research shows that the winning solutions are far more likely to come from people whose expertise was far away from the domain of the problem. Yes it helps to be educated, to have training and experience, but to win your niche did not have to be ‘directly relevant.’ Call it crowd sourcing or open innovation, creativity will become a mass activity, bringing a diversity of mind-set, experience and knowledge together that businesses could only dream of. It is extremely likely that the people with the skills you need will be outside your organisation; you will never be able to source, hire and pay this variety of skills. You will need to find a way to partner with them.
- The nature of a holistic workforce will upend how companies hire and manage and engage their staff. You will need to consider ALL of your workers no matter how they are employed by you; gig workers who surgically deliver a project, full time, temps, specialist experts, partners, employees of outsourced partners and so on. This will challenge the very nature of HR and recruitment.
- Technology – killing jobs and democratising work Technology will not stop at enabling work to be packaged up. It will destroy jobs whilst at the same time democratising work. In 2013 researchers at the University of Oxford published a paper that stated within 20 years 47% of jobs will be automated. The researchers looked at over 700 job titles and you can even go onto the BBC web site, enter your job and see the chance your job will succumb to automation. By the way, 47% was the good news. That was for the US economy. 69% of jobs in India and 77% of those in China will be automated in 20 years. 20 years is too long a time frame for my consideration, but technology will destroy jobs and we will LOVE it. Consider those working in manufacturing
- In American naval shipyards, workers wear exoskeletons to help with their job. Prior to wearing the skeleton, workers had to carry tools of tens of kilograms all day, they would go home from work so fatigued, all they could do was crash out on the couch, the work was very manual and physical so workers would take significantly more sick than an average worker. Now, wearing the skeleton, the tools appear weightless thus enabling the worker to guide rather than wield it; it prevents injuries as tools can not be dropped – they are attached to the exoskeleton; workers thus have less sick, go home and can have a life, and two people are more productive than three used to be. We will marvel at the technology, how it will make our lives better, and it will slowly destroy jobs.
- Technology will be the great leveller. It will remove your uniqueness that gives you the advantage in getting the job, it will democratise work. The naval ship yard job was historically characterised by the need to be fit, butch, able to lift heavy objects hour in, hour out. Wearing a suit, anyone can do that work no matter how fit, butch or what they can lift. Likewise Excel automates and dumbs down the skill in building a spreadsheet; I can use technology to curate articles; contextual search to source legal precedents. Technology opens up talent pools that you never previously considered. This will upend the selection tools used by most businesses. How will you chose the right person, what skills are really critical for each role in your business? But technology will create and enable other types of work. When ATMs were installed in banks, everyone feared for the cashier and their job, but ATM removed the monotonous task – handing out money – and in the following years employment in banks INCREASED as they invested in other types of front line staff – sales being an example to flog you investments and insurance. Technology removes your uniqueness, and you can not beat it, as individuals we will need to work with the machines not against them. Here come the Women
- Well any job of the future is going to need to understand computers, that much is clear. According to the WEF, science, technology, engineering and maths will see the majority of new roles created: competition for talent in high-growth areas such as computing, mathematics, architecture and engineering, and other strategic and specialist roles, will be fierce. Industrial sectors that strike me as obvious contenders for work include STEM, renewables, climate-change, healthcare and medical. However as we increasingly seek to create solutions for billions of urban city dwellers, areas like anthropology will become increasingly useful as we seek more holistic solutions to our problems. It is said that as a rough rule of thumb 60% of the jobs 10 years from now have not been invented, so it may be easier to look at the strengths/skills the likely successful workers of tomorrow will have
- This is from the WEF. And notice what the key skills needs they predict that will be needed……. Management and people skills. This is reasonably obvious. Smart machines will take over jobs that can be codified, where a process defines what to do, how to do it and in what order. You will thus need skills that smart machines can not copy; thinking on your feet, the ability to respond to unique unexpected circumstances in the moment. We will be surrounded and swamped by data so data analytics or data visualisation will be in demand. The ability to discriminate and filter information for importance, to then make sense of it all, to connect the dots and then to visualise what it all means and be able to present and impart its meaning to others will be critical. The ability to create unique insights critical to decision making, The ability to determine the deeper meaning or significance of what is being expressed
- People skills will be paramount. As diversity of skills and backgrounds will be critical, by extension, the ability to engage with people from across the globe and be able to operate in whatever environment you find yourself will be a prerequisite. Social intelligence, cultural awareness and emotional IQ will become even more important to enable you to work with people, assess their emotions, calculate and regulate your impact. Note, This is not language skills (technology will make the learning of languages a hobby) rather it is adaptability to changing circumstances and an ability to sense and respond to new contexts. Transdisciplinary - Whilst you are busy carving your own niche area, you will need an appreciation of how what you do connects with others so that together you create bigger solutions. This requires a sense of curiosity and a long-term approach to learning especially as longer lifespans promote multiple careers and exposure to more industries and disciplines
- Virtual collaboration - we will increasingly work virtually, whether from home or in teams spanning the globe. How will you work productively, drive engagement, and demonstrate presence as a member of a virtual team? How will leaders develop strategies for engaging and motivating a dispersed group? How do you create virtual water-cooler moments? According to one of LinkedIn’s founders, on average, by 2020, more than a third of the desired core skill sets of most occupations will be comprised of skills that are not yet considered crucial to the job today. Must have call centre experience for a call-centre job will be an anachronism to successful companies. Companies will struggle with this. As I said under the technology section; technology will be the great leveller - if these are the core skills required, how do you measure them, how do your selection techniques work out who is the best hire? Brand ‘YOU’ <So you may be the goto expert but how will you be found? You will need a personal brand.
- If competition is global, and if there are thousands, millions of people competing for work how can individuals respond? A recent opinion article in the NY Times said “In the past, workers with average skills, doing an average job, could earn an average lifestyle. But, today, average is officially over. Being average just won’t earn you what it used to. It can’t when so many more employers have so much more access to so much more above average cheap foreign labor, cheap robotics, cheap software, cheap automation and cheap genius. Therefore, everyone needs to find their extra — their unique value contribution that makes them stand out in whatever is their field of employment. Average is over.”
- The answer (like for businesses and from LBS) is ‘serial mastery;’ focus on what you are good at, become an expert with knowledge an inch wide and a mile deep, have a ‘T’ shaped career and then <CLICK (72)> over time morph into aligned niches to remain fresh, up to date and novel. So as education becomes more critical it will be lifelong learning, a lifelong commitment to learning that will be critical. This is a step change for the generations:
- I’ve shown you the trends. These 5 points are how business will respond or will need to respond to survive. You may not want or be able to focus on all of these, but the first step to prepare to awareness and I hope at the least I have made you aware of what you can start to consider in order to future proof your business. You will need to embrace these to future proof yourselves.
- like the crazy guy on the street corner. Maybe I am, but the world is changing and changing far faster than we realise and hopefully by showing you what is happening right now simply shows where it is going. Change will come and by the time it arrives it will be too late. Guarantee you will reflect on this I have not got answers, but hopefully I have highlighted the way, I have shown you where it is already happening and I have helped prepare you for what is coming. It will not be boring.
- So that’s it. If you want to know more please get in touch….. Don’t forget you can also visit guidantgroup.com to download further insight including an ebook and webinar on this very subject. If you would like to hear the full length version, this is being delivered as a webinar this Thursday afternoon on the BRIGHTALK platform We are also delivering this seminar in some cities around the country; to know more either look at the EventBrite platform or get in touch. Thank-you very much.