On the Importance of Technology Foresight for the future of energy by Professor Sirkka Heinonen, Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku, at Millennium Meet-up

1. On the Importance of
Technology Foresight
for
the
future
of
energy
Prof Sirkka Heinonen
Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku
MILLENNIUM MEET-­UP 23rd September 2015
Aalto Design Factory, Espoo

2. Humans in
Relation with
Technology
through Millennia

3. 3
homo
faber
homo
ludens
Focus2013

4. Triangle
drama
humans,
technology
and
nature
crucial
for
all
nations,
societies,
governments,
cities,
businesses,
individuals,
and
humanity
as
a
whole.

5. Modern progressNo
single
idea
has
been
more
important
than
the
notion
of
progress
— the
conception
that
our
imperfect
human
race
is
developing
in
a
constantly
improving
direction,
i.e.
progressing.
Progress associated with technological progress

6. ROBOTIZATION
-­‐ Industrial
-­‐ Service
-­‐ Domestic
-­‐ Pet robots
-­‐ Android
© athomaz.com
Technology
Convergence,
AI,
IoT,
BigData,
Robotisation

7. tekhne
-­‐ work
-­‐ -­‐ techniques
-­‐ crafts
-­‐ art
The ultimate
questionconcerning technology is
human/machine interface

8. Technology
is
the
material link btw
humans and
nature
Humans think we can master this
relation
But we have not developed
technology sufficiently in
harmony
with nature,
following its structures,
systems,
processes…

9. The
role of
technology has to
be re-­‐defined
Appropriate technology – adapted for
livability
Biomimicry
Technosystem adapted to
eco-­‐system

10. Futures research =
systematic,
holistic,
multidisciplinary
and
critical long-­‐term analysis of
futures topics and
alternative developments
Futures Research
Futures Research
Foresight
Foresight =
structured participatory debate about the
future of
complex issues
Technology
Foresight

11. Possible
Probable FUTURES
Preferred

12. THE RAPID CHANGE EMPHASIZES THE
STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE OF FORESIGHT
Change is not only rapid but also continuous, increasingly
difficult to foresee in our complex world
We are living the age of globalization, urbanization,
digitalization, climate change and resource scarcity
These megatrends are making a significant impact on nations
and on people’s lives
© Sirkka Heinonen

13. MI
“The
21st
Century
will
be
the
century
of
complexity”
Steven
Hawking
”Futures
Research is
business
of
complexity,
unpredict-­‐
ability,
uncertainty,
surprise”
MILLENNIUM
PROJECT

14. CLUB
OF
ROME
The
Club
of
Rome’s
Limits
to
Growth
report
(1972)
paved
the
way
for
a
deeper,
systemic
understanding
of
humankind’s
intervention
in
the
ecosphere.

15. One
of
the
most
critical
systems
for
humanity’s
survival
is
embedded
in
natural
resources
and
energy.
futures awareness >>>>
energy awareness

16. The future use of natural resources and energy is affected by
socio-­cultural aspects such as changes in people's lifestyles and
value systems -­ equally important to study as technological,
economic and geopolitic factors.
• .

17. NEO-­‐CARBON
ENERGY
Tekes
project (2014-­‐2019)
VTT
LUT
FFRC/UTU
A new
renewable
energy
based
production
and
storage
system
is
being
developed
by
VTT
Technical
Research
Centre
of
Finland
and
Lappeenranta
University
of
Technology
(LUT).
FFRC
in
charge
of
the
horizon
scanning
of
the
changing
world
and
energy
landscape.
Innovative
foresight
tools
and
processes
are
applied
i.e.
Futures
Cliniques.
China
and
some
countries
from
Africa
and
Latin
America
are
included
as
case
studies.

18. § 2050: zero emission energy
system has to be in place if global
warming is limited to +2°C.
§ 2030: only emission free
technologies can be taken in use.
§ 2015: solar and wind become the
least cost options in large part of
the World.
WHY?
/ A COMPLETELY
NEW RENEWABLE
ENERGY SYSTEM
WHERE ENERGY IS
EMISSION-­FREE,
COST-­EFFECTIVE
AND INDEPENDENT.
NEO-­CARBON ENERGY is one of the Tekes strategic
research openings and the project is carried out in
cooperation with Technical Research Centre of Finland
VTT Ltd, Lappeenranta University of Technology LUT
and University of Turku, Finland Futures Research
Centre FFRC.
Neo-­‐Carbon
Energy
Project
studies
a) a
100
%
renewable
energy
system
of
solar,
wind
and
storage,
and
b) the
social
societal
implication
of
the
new
energy
system

19. a conceptdeveloped by Prof Pentti Malaska
(a word play on degrowth)
unlike degrowth, neo-­growth does not reject growth but emphasises its
positive connotations
1) environmentally sustainable
2) merges economic growth with cultural, social and ”spiritual” growth
-­> an attempt to re-­establish a holistic vision of growth.
Could growth be defined anew – so that it is environmentally
sustainable, and instead of conventional economic goals serves the
overall well-­being of citizens?
Neo-­Growth

20. Four
Scenarios+
Energy
implications
© Sirkka Heinonen
RADICAL
STARTUPS
VALUE-­‐DRIVENTECHEMOTHS
GREEN
DIY
ENGINEERS
NEW
CONSCIOUSNESS

21. EMERGING
MEANINGS
SOCIETY
In
the
future
meanings
society,
more
and
more
urban
functions
are
organised to
provide
meaningful
experiences
for
citizens who
become
active
urban
designers
themselves
– and
active
energy
prosumers!

22. ©VirpiVaattovaara
Thank You!
Professor Sirkka Heinonen
Finland Futures Research Centre
(FFRC), University of Turku
sirkka.heinonen (at) utu.fi

23. REFERENCES
Dator, Jim (2012). Dream Society? Ubiquitous Society? No Society? Summer Seminar by the
Finnish Society for Futures Studies. Otava.
Heinonen, Sirkka (2014). What is Futures Reseach and Scenario Thinking? Lecture at University
of Buenos Aires (UBA), Departamento de Computación 18th November 2014. During the
Secondment at FLACSO and CIECTI, Buenos Aires (November 2014). 50 ppt slides.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=cY4NGAfdhJU
Heinonen, Sirkka, Karjalainen, Joni and Ruotsalainen, Juho (2015). Towards the Third Industrial
Revolution. Neo-­Carbon Energy Futures Clinique I. eBook 6/2015. Finland Futures Research
Centre, 74 p. http://www.utu.fi/fi/yksikot/ffrc/julkaisut/e-­tutu/Documents/FFRC-­eBook-­6-­2015.pdf
Heinonen, Sirkka & Ruotsalainen, Juho (2014). Toward Ubiquitous Learning.
www.ael.fi/sites/default/files/files/ael_futuriikki_eng_10-­2014_final_net.pdf
Malaska, Pentti (2010). A More Innovative Direction Has Been Ignored. In: Understanding
Neogrowth -­ An Invitation to Sustainable Productivity. TeliaSonera Finland Plc. Helsinki, p. 200-­
210.www.sonera.fi/media/13069ab55806de22e8955bc2a3f1afeab17b28bd/Understanding_Neogr
owth.pdf