There is little doubt that 3D printing technologies will change our economies, but how and to what extent? In the current context of worldwide economic crisis and severe environmental challenges, what can we expect the long-term effects of 3D printing technologies to be? What does 3D printing means for re-industrialization and sustainable development? These are some of the questions that this session aims to address. In particular, the issue of the ‘virtuous technological path’ will be discussed.

1. Looking Ahead
The Long Term Economic Impact of
3D Printing

2. Prof. Thierry Rayna
Professor of Economics
Department of
Economics & Finance
Chair of Digital Business
ESG Management
School, Paris
Email: trayna@esg.fr

3. Outline
Technological and adoption trends
Opportunities and challenges
Will 3D Printing change the economy?
Public policies

4. TECHNOLOGICAL &
ADOPTION TRENDS

5. te
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3D
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6. Technology
$20
0K
s
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P
1980
…
$20K
$1K $5
00
$10
l
…
Meta
Ce!s
s
lastic
P
a!oys
s
Sugar
ramic
Ce
colate
Cho
2000 … 2010
…
0…
2020 …
Costs

7. Many 3D Printing
Technologies
Stereolithography (SLA)
Fused Deposition Modelling (FDM)
Laminated Object Manufacturing (LOM)
Selective Laser Sintering (SLS)
Laser Deposition Technology (LDT)
Electron Beam Freeform Fabrication (EBF3)

8. Tree vs. Forest
Technology

9. Tree vs. Forest
SLA
FDM
LOM
SLS
LDT
EBF3

10. Many materials
Plastics
Salt
Metal alloys
Cells
Ceramics
Molecules
Wood
…
Sugar
Chocolate

11. WHAT CAN YOU DO
WITH 3D PRINTING?

12. ANYTHING!

13. Toys
Simple ones…

14. Toys
Complex ones

15. Smartphone cases
simple ones

16. Smartphone cases
Very advanced ones

17. Household items
Simple ones

18. Household items
More complex ones

19. Dishes
Creative ones

20. Silverware

21. Food

22. Tools

23. Cisors

24. Shoes

25. Shoes+Smartphone case

26. Clothes

27. Jewellery
Works with gold too…

28. Cars

29. Car parts

30. Car keys

31. Body parts

32. Organs

33. Drugs

34. The question is not what can you
print…
The question is what CAN’T
you print…

35. $2
0,0
$1, 00
00
0
FDM Printer
8 materials (1 at a time)

36. $2
50,
$1, 00
00 0
0?
Object500 Connex
100 materials (14 at a time)

37. Usage and adoption trends
Very few consumers own 3D printers
But:
3D printers have already left the factories
They have already reached offices
They will reach the homes tomorrow
Many, many ‘big names’ supporting 3D printing

38. ‘Additive’ adoption
Adoption
Home fabrication
Digital manufacturing
Rapid Tooling
Rapid prototyping
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050

39. OPPORTUNITIES &
CHALLENGES

40. Rich Karlgraad, 2011
“3D Printing is the transformative
technology of the 2015–2025 period”

41. Chris Anderson, 2012
“Desktop manufacturing revolution [. . . ] will
change the world as much as the personal
computer did”

42. Barack Obama, 2013
“3D printing that has the potential to
revolutionize the way we make almost
everything.”

43. OPPORTUNITIES

44. 3D Printing – Opportunities
Creativity
Entrepreneurship
Innovation
Sustainability

45. Opportunity: Creativity
Costly to be creative
3D printing lowers costs
Rapid prototyping for everyone
‘Live objects’: incremental improvements
Meet the demand: know what customers want

46. Opportunity:
Entrepreneurship
‘Kickstarter 2.0’
Anyone can be an entrepreneur
‘On-demand’ production
Virtually no pre-commitment on quantity
Venture capital obsolete?
Community-based entrepreneurship

47. Opportunity: Innovation
Creativity + Entrepreneurship = Innovation

48. Opportunity: Sustainability
Additive vs. subtractive
Actual demand vs. estimated demand
Local manufacturing vs remote manufacturing
Fewer resources needed

49. CHALLENGES

50. 3D Printing – Challenges
Intellectual property rights
Prosumers
Incentives and rewards
Responsibilities and liability

51. Challenge: Intellectual
Property Rights
Consumer piracy
Will happen
Will not be stopped by technology and law
Massive co-creation
What IPR for that?

52. Skills & knowledge embedded in:
the object
$ 3,500
$ 3,499
the builder

53. Challenge: Prosumers
Consumers producers = Prosumers
Consumers involved in
Design
Distribution
Manufacturing

54. Challenge: Incentives and
Rewards
Standard contract: agreed output + deadline + predefined
payment
Sign a contract with 1,000s of people?
How to define the output and its value?
What about rewards?
Money can be a disincentive
Consumers don’t do it for money, but what for then?

55. Challenge: Liability
Who is responsible when a 3D printed object does not meet
expectations or fails?
Designer?
Hosting platform?
Printer manufacturer?
Consumables manufacturer?
Consumer?

56. LONG-TERM ECONOMIC IMPACT
OF DIGITAL MANUFACTURING

57. Long-term economic effects
Innovation unleashed
Return of manufacturing
Massive cost savings
Regional and global
development
Tooling
Transport
Storage
Waste
Competitiveness
Sustainable growth

58. Take risk in a risk-free
environment
Growth requires to innovate
Innovating is risky and costly
Digital Manufacturing enables to take risks in an
(almost) risk-free environment

59. Towards a third industrial
revolution
Radical changes in the economy
Profound reorganisation of industrial sectors
Profound reorganisation of society?

60. Towards a
rd
3
Wave?
1st Wave
2nd Wave
3rd Wave
Type
Agricultural Age
Industrial Age
Information Age
Key resource
Land
Non-renewable
resources
Information*
Key organisation
Village
Corporation
Communities?
Family
Extended
Nuclear
Diverse?
Roles
Integrated
Consumer/producer
split
Prosumers
Production
Custom
Mass
Custom
Economy
Decentralised
Concentrated
?

61. Will it be the end of mass
production?
Probably not:
People may like the same things
Customisation is uneconomical for large quantities
But:
It might be the end of concentrated production

62. Will everyone have a 3D
printer?
Probably not
after all some people still do not have TV!
probably uneconomical to have a multi-material
printer in each home

64. WHAT ROLE FOR
GOVERNMENTS?

65. The role of governments
Steer and grow the ecosystem
Trigger adoption
Help building a safe and trustworthy environment for
digital manufacturing
Rethink IPRs and find new forms of incentives

66. Embrace 3D Printing
The cat is out of the bag:
3D Printing can’t be prevented, so embrace it!
Transformative effects as high as Personal Computing
or even the Internet
Where would countries who had not embraced such
technologies be now?

67. 3D Printing
Biomimicry
Big Data
Internet of Things

69. Building bridges...

71. Thank you