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TAKING A HYPOTHESIS
DRIVEN APPROACH
Nicola Boyle & Rob Harrison
1
2
Assumptions
Assumptions
Assumptions
Assumptions
Assumptions
Assumptions
Assumptions
Assumptions
Assumptions
Assumptions
Assumptions
Assumptions
Assumptions
Assumptions
Assumptions
Assumptions
Assumptions
3
Us.
4
You.
RETWEET
I’ll try a
#HypothesisDrivenApproach
#AgileAus
@nicolaboyle27
@remoterobbo
CREATING A HYPOTHESIS
6
We believe that <this change>
Will result in <this outcome>.
We will know we have succeeded when
<we see change in X metric>.
Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo”
SKYPE FOR STAFF
7
We believe that enabling Skype functionality to staff
Will result in less staff travel and quicker turnaround
times on decision making.
We will know we have succeeded when we see that the
flights taken by staff, for face to face meetings, have been
reduced by 5%.
Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo”
MVP - THE HYPOTHESIS’S BEST FRIEND
8
Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo”
METRICS THAT MATTER
9
Acquisition
Activation
Retention
Revenue
Referral
AARRR “PIRATE”

FUNNEL METRICS
Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo”
- Dave McClure
Acquisition - Number of people who visit your
service
Activation - Number of people who have a good
initial response
Retention - Number of people who come back for
more
Revenue - Number of people from the cohort
who engage in revenue-creating
activity
Referral - Number of people from the cohort
who refers other users
ITERATE TO VALIDATE
10
THE VALIDATED
LEARNING LOOP
• REDUCED RISK & UNCERTAINTY
• MORE VALUE SOONER

• LAYER-IN COMPLEXITY
Create
hypothesis
Design and
run
experiment
Study results
Evolve model
and
implement
changes
Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo”
RETWEET
I’ll try a
#HypothesisDrivenApproach
#AgileAus
@nicolaboyle27
@remoterobbo
CREATE AN
INNOVATION CULTURE
12
Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo”
DISRUPTS
13
Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo”
ACCEPT OR CANCELPHONE, TEXT, EMAIL OR
NOTIFICATION
MANAGE BOOKING ONLINE
FROM REQUIREMENTS TO HYPOTHESES
14
We believe allowing passengers to change their flight
within a seven day period
Will result in a better customer experience as
passengers will not have to call to manage their booking.
We will know we have succeeded when 10% of
customers select a new flight within the seven day period.
Create
hypothesis
Design and
run
experiment
Study results
Evolve model
and
implement
changes
SEVEN DAY CHANGE
Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo”
BUILD AN MVP
15
Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo”
THREE DAY CHANGE
Create
hypothesis
Design and
run
experiment
Study results
Evolve model
and
implement
changes
CHECK THE RESULTS
16
• Most passengers accepted new flight.
• Some passengers changed on day or cancelled.
• Very few passengers changed to next day and
fewer changed on the third day.
Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo”
Create
hypothesis
Design and
run
experiment
Study results
Evolve model
and
implement
changes
CONTINUE, PIVOT, STOP
17
• Cost to build seven day change deemed not
worth the ROI.
• Seven day change feature stopped.
• Team able to pick up more valuable feature.
Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo”
Create
hypothesis
Design and
run
experiment
Study results
Evolve model
and
implement
changes
FROM DONE TO MONITORING
18
Team walls and portfolio wall now have
Monitoring instead of Done.
Definition of done to move out of monitoring
column is ‘Measure outcome’
Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo”
19
BECOME A
DATA-LED BUSINESS
Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo”
BUILD MEASUREMENT IN
20
“Without data you’re just another person with an opinion”
- W. Edwards Deming
-
• Agreed before development.
• An acceptance criteria for every story.
• Part of the way of working - it’s not done
until you’ve studied the results and acted
on them.
Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo”
ISOLATE CHANGE
21
We believe providing the ability to add an extra bag prior to payment only
Will result in increased customer satisfaction and speed to complete bookings.
We will know we have succeeded when:
• There is reduction in complaints from customers related to overloading of
information;
• Decrease in time to complete a booking (from search to payment);
• There is no statistically significant drop-off in customers adding extra bags.
Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo”
ADD EXTRA BAGS
RETWEET
I’ll try a
#HypothesisDrivenApproach
#AgileAus
@nicolaboyle27
@remoterobbo
TRANSFORM YOUR
ORGANISATION
23
Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo”
GUILD WORKSHOP
24
Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo”
TRAINING BUSINESS ANALYSTS ON
HYPOTHESIS DRIVEN DEVELOPMENT
We believe running a one hour session where we
introduce the concept, core theory and have participants
build a hypothesis based on their existing project
Will result in an increase in attendees applying a
hypothesis driven approach in their teams.
We will know we have succeeded when the average
score for attendees is at least a three on a self-
assessment scale.
MEASURING SUCCESS
25
Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo”
1. I know nothing about hypothesis driven development.
2. I know a little, but not how to apply it.
3. I could work in a team using it.
4. I could apply the concepts and explain it to others.
5. Move over, I will be presenting this session.
SELF-ASSESSMENT
SECOND TIME RUNNING THE SESSION
PIVOT
26
Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo”
We believe running a ninety minute session where we
introduce the concept, core theory and have participants
build a hypothesis based on a fictional project
Will result in an increase in attendees applying a
hypothesis driven approach in their teams.
We will know we have succeeded when the average
score for attendees is at least a three on a self-
assessment scale.
27
I have not failed. I’ve just
found 10,000 ways that
don’t work.
— Thomas A. Edison
RESOURCES
28
The Lean Startup
- Eric Ries
Entrepreneur/Author
- Barry O’Reilly
The Lean Enterprise
- Jez Humble, Joanne
Molesky and Barry O’Reilly
Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo”
THANK YOU
nboyle@thoughtworks.com
robert.harrison@airnz.co.nz
“I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach
#AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @Remoterobbo”

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Taking a Hypothesis Driven Approach

  • 1. TAKING A HYPOTHESIS DRIVEN APPROACH Nicola Boyle & Rob Harrison 1
  • 6. CREATING A HYPOTHESIS 6 We believe that <this change> Will result in <this outcome>. We will know we have succeeded when <we see change in X metric>. Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo”
  • 7. SKYPE FOR STAFF 7 We believe that enabling Skype functionality to staff Will result in less staff travel and quicker turnaround times on decision making. We will know we have succeeded when we see that the flights taken by staff, for face to face meetings, have been reduced by 5%. Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo”
  • 8. MVP - THE HYPOTHESIS’S BEST FRIEND 8 Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo”
  • 9. METRICS THAT MATTER 9 Acquisition Activation Retention Revenue Referral AARRR “PIRATE”
 FUNNEL METRICS Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo” - Dave McClure Acquisition - Number of people who visit your service Activation - Number of people who have a good initial response Retention - Number of people who come back for more Revenue - Number of people from the cohort who engage in revenue-creating activity Referral - Number of people from the cohort who refers other users
  • 10. ITERATE TO VALIDATE 10 THE VALIDATED LEARNING LOOP • REDUCED RISK & UNCERTAINTY • MORE VALUE SOONER
 • LAYER-IN COMPLEXITY Create hypothesis Design and run experiment Study results Evolve model and implement changes Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo”
  • 12. CREATE AN INNOVATION CULTURE 12 Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo”
  • 13. DISRUPTS 13 Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo” ACCEPT OR CANCELPHONE, TEXT, EMAIL OR NOTIFICATION MANAGE BOOKING ONLINE
  • 14. FROM REQUIREMENTS TO HYPOTHESES 14 We believe allowing passengers to change their flight within a seven day period Will result in a better customer experience as passengers will not have to call to manage their booking. We will know we have succeeded when 10% of customers select a new flight within the seven day period. Create hypothesis Design and run experiment Study results Evolve model and implement changes SEVEN DAY CHANGE Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo”
  • 15. BUILD AN MVP 15 Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo” THREE DAY CHANGE Create hypothesis Design and run experiment Study results Evolve model and implement changes
  • 16. CHECK THE RESULTS 16 • Most passengers accepted new flight. • Some passengers changed on day or cancelled. • Very few passengers changed to next day and fewer changed on the third day. Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo” Create hypothesis Design and run experiment Study results Evolve model and implement changes
  • 17. CONTINUE, PIVOT, STOP 17 • Cost to build seven day change deemed not worth the ROI. • Seven day change feature stopped. • Team able to pick up more valuable feature. Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo” Create hypothesis Design and run experiment Study results Evolve model and implement changes
  • 18. FROM DONE TO MONITORING 18 Team walls and portfolio wall now have Monitoring instead of Done. Definition of done to move out of monitoring column is ‘Measure outcome’ Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo”
  • 19. 19 BECOME A DATA-LED BUSINESS Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo”
  • 20. BUILD MEASUREMENT IN 20 “Without data you’re just another person with an opinion” - W. Edwards Deming - • Agreed before development. • An acceptance criteria for every story. • Part of the way of working - it’s not done until you’ve studied the results and acted on them. Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo”
  • 21. ISOLATE CHANGE 21 We believe providing the ability to add an extra bag prior to payment only Will result in increased customer satisfaction and speed to complete bookings. We will know we have succeeded when: • There is reduction in complaints from customers related to overloading of information; • Decrease in time to complete a booking (from search to payment); • There is no statistically significant drop-off in customers adding extra bags. Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo” ADD EXTRA BAGS
  • 23. TRANSFORM YOUR ORGANISATION 23 Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo”
  • 24. GUILD WORKSHOP 24 Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo” TRAINING BUSINESS ANALYSTS ON HYPOTHESIS DRIVEN DEVELOPMENT We believe running a one hour session where we introduce the concept, core theory and have participants build a hypothesis based on their existing project Will result in an increase in attendees applying a hypothesis driven approach in their teams. We will know we have succeeded when the average score for attendees is at least a three on a self- assessment scale.
  • 25. MEASURING SUCCESS 25 Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo” 1. I know nothing about hypothesis driven development. 2. I know a little, but not how to apply it. 3. I could work in a team using it. 4. I could apply the concepts and explain it to others. 5. Move over, I will be presenting this session. SELF-ASSESSMENT
  • 26. SECOND TIME RUNNING THE SESSION PIVOT 26 Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo” We believe running a ninety minute session where we introduce the concept, core theory and have participants build a hypothesis based on a fictional project Will result in an increase in attendees applying a hypothesis driven approach in their teams. We will know we have succeeded when the average score for attendees is at least a three on a self- assessment scale.
  • 27. 27 I have not failed. I’ve just found 10,000 ways that don’t work. — Thomas A. Edison
  • 28. RESOURCES 28 The Lean Startup - Eric Ries Entrepreneur/Author - Barry O’Reilly The Lean Enterprise - Jez Humble, Joanne Molesky and Barry O’Reilly Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo”
  • 29. THANK YOU nboyle@thoughtworks.com robert.harrison@airnz.co.nz “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @Remoterobbo”