Foresight 2020 - Industry trends and scenarios
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Foresight 2020 study has been made by utilizing the methodology of future studies complemented with over 100 interviews covering the spectrum of our customers’ industries. See here the industry trends and scenarios.
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Foresight 2020 - Industry trends and scenarios
- 1. Foresight 2020 – industry trends and scenarios
- 2. © Tieto Corporation Financial Services trends 2 Digital payment systems New entrants Consolidation and Partnerships Scalable consumerization Predictive mass- customized services Big banks win Regulation Digital Banking considered safe Optimization through IT Protectionism Scenarios Opportunities for Tieto Digital payments Cyber security 4 5 • Driven by customer data and analytics. • Large number of actors. • Few players, incumbents remain in control. • Product and service developments handled largely in-house. Digital payments Scalable consumerization Digital payments Scalable consumerization Brings together financial services, telecom operators, retailers and device manu-facturers and will likely be standardised. Financial services actors are expecting to increase spending on cyber security to reach $ 33 billion by 2020. Joining forces • Customer-centric models through alliances with emerging actors and technologies. Digital payments Propensity to partner Segmented trends and factors of influence Protectionism Me Free trade agreements Cyber security Higher frequency offinancial crisis Climate change Finite natural resources Generation Y Rise ofthe middle class The sharing economy Increasing threatofterrorism Digitalization Cloud Connectivity Big data and analytics Reg Me Reg Me Sec Me Eco Me Env Me Env Me Soc Me Soc Me Soc Me Sec Me Tec Me Tec Me Tec Me Tec Macroeconomic uncertainty Ma Cross-industryconvergence Optimization through IT Stricter regulation Consumer privacyrising Demand for sustainable products Eurozone instability Strong power ofconsumers Lifestyle adapted services Continued adaptation ofe- channels and e-services Standardization ofbanking regulations Consolidation Factory model transformation New,agile supply chains Biometric authentication E-invoicing Eco Ma Eco Ma Eco Ma Reg Ma Soc Ma Env Ma Env Ma Eco Ma Soc Ma Soc Ma Tec Reg Eco Mi Eco Mi Tec Mi Tec Mi Env Reduced paper usage 1 Semantic web Me Tec Aging population Me Soc Gloablization Me Soc Digital banking consideredsafe New (digital) paymentsystems Mi Tec Mi Tec Mi Mi Consumerization Fightfor talent Mi Soc Mi Soc Stronger relationship with IT Increasing number ofactors Mi Tec Mi Reg Env All trends and were segmented and ranked according to level. Macro and micro trends were looked at more closely as they impact the specific industry. (step 1) Through influence analysis key drivers and key areas of change were identified. (step 2 and 3) The drivers were combined in different constellations to create different scenarios with different impact on key areas of change. The scenarios with most likelihood, most impact on industry and most impact on IT by 2020, were selected for scenario development. (step 4) Note: Please see the Methodology section, delivered separately, for scoring and calculations of trends and scenarios and further methodological explanations. Key opportunities for Tieto were identified within scenarios and trends and highlighted in the report. (step 5) Me Ma Mi Mega level:Global,long term,affects how the world looks Macro level:Medium term,affects one or many industries Micro level:Shorter term,changes industry dynamics Reg Eco Sec Regulatory Economic Risk, Security Env Soc Tec Environmental Societal Technological LEGEND: Drivers Factors and trends thathave high influence and low dependence towardsother trends.. Areas of change Trends thathave high impact butlower influence score and higher dependencescore. Key areas of change 2015-2020 Key industry drivers 2015-20202 3
- 3. © Tieto Corporation Manufacturing trends 3 Complete automation B2B E-commerce Key areas of change 2015-2020 Key industry drivers 2015-2020 M2M / Industrial Internet 3D Printing Industry 4.0 On-demand mass- customizationOn-demand economy Sustainable production Optimization Competition from East Scenarios Opportunities for Tieto Factory of the Future: Digital Supply Networks: On-Demand Manufacturing: Segmented trends and factors of influence Emerging economies Me Multi-country manufacturing Cyber security Rising focus on risk Management Climate change Finite natural resources Generation Y Rise ofthe middle class The sharing economy Socio-demographic change Digitalization Cloud Connectivity Big data Eco Me Eco Me Sec Me Sec Me Env Me Env Me Soc Me Soc Me Soc Me Soc Me Tec Me Tec Me Tec Me Tec Health & Safety Ma Competition from East Optimization Servitization Cluster manufacturing Safety ofconnected production Sustainable production On-demand economy Consumerization Complete automation RFID technology 3D Printing Nano-manufacturing M2M / Industrial internet Growing number ofdistributors Increasing use ofsub-contractors Next-shoring B2B E-commerce Reg Ma Eco Ma Eco Ma Eco Ma Eco Ma Sec Ma Env Ma Env Ma Soc Ma Soc Ma Tec Ma Tec Ma Tec Ma Tec Ma Tec Mi Eco Mi Eco Mi Soc Mi Tec Emission regulation 1 2 3 4 5 Me Ma Mi Mega level: Global, long term, affects how the world looks Macro level: Medium term, affects one or many industries Micro level: Shorter term, changes industry dynamics Reg Eco Sec Regulatory Economic Risk, Security Env Soc Tec Environmental Societal Technological LEGEND: Drivers Factors and trends thathave high influence and low dependence towardsother trends.. Areas of change Trends thathave high impact butlower influence score and higher dependencescore. • Driven by increasing global competition and efficiency. • Emphasis on M2M technology and automation. • Driven by On-demand and sustainable production. • Breakthrough of 3D printing also on industrial scale. Complete automation M2M/ Industrial intternet B2B E- commerce 3D Printing Brings together automation, industrial internet, robotics, analytics and 3D printing. Holistic approach to supply chain with seamless information flow between actors across the value chain. A power shift in the value chain where either manufacturers, retailers or new actors may emerge as winners All trends and were segmented and ranked according to level. Macro and micro trends were looked at more closely as they impact the specific industry. (step 1) Through influence analysis key drivers and key areas of change were identified. (step 2 and 3) The drivers were combined in different constellations to create different scenarios with different impact on key areas of change. The scenarios with most likelihood, most impact on industry and most impact on IT by 2020, were selected for scenario development. (step 4) Key opportunities for Tieto were identified within scenarios and trends and highlighted in the report. (step 5) Please note that these trends and scenarios apply mainly to discrete industrial manufacturing, Note: Please see the Methodology section, delivered separately, for scoring and calculations of trends and scenarios and further methodological explanations.
- 4. © Tieto Corporation Forest trends 4 Servitization of manufacturing (e.g. consulting on material application) Partnering Key areas of change 2015-2020 Key industry drivers 2015-2020 Interfaces Value-added bio products Cutting costs & partnering Diversified solutions Structural changes in demand Increasing consumer influence and power Subsidies and funding Scenarios Opportunities for Tieto N/A Segmented trends and factors of influence Emerging economies Me Deforestation Aging population Integration ofEuropean market Climate change Scarce natural resources Generation Y Higher standards ofliving Globalisation Digitalization Cloud Big data,analytics Eco Me Env Me Soc Me Sec Me Env Me Env Me Soc Me Soc Me Eco Me Tec Me Tec Me Tec Land use,incl wood supply Ma Increasing consumer power Sustainability Restructuring,incl.Moving production outofEurope Increasing employer attractiveness Environmental reputation Bio-economy,incl.Value-added forestproducts Automation Just-in-time (JIT) logistics Higher supplier dependence Nano-technology Structural changes in demand Traceability Cost-cutting to drive competitiveness Increasingly complexsupply chains Consumer-centricapproach Partnering Governmental and NGO involvement Env Ma Soc Ma Soc Ma Eco Ma Soc Ma Soc Ma Eco Ma Tec Ma Tec Ma Tec Ma Sec Ma Tec Eco Soc Eco Mi Eco Mi Soc Mi Eco Mi Reg Geographic information systems (GIS) 1 2 3 4 5 Me Ma Mi Mega level:Global,long term,affects how the world looks Macro level:Medium term,affects one or many industries Micro level:Shorter term,changes industry dynamics Reg Eco Sec Regulatory Economic Risk, Security Env Soc Tec Environmental Societal Technological LEGEND: Drivers Factors and trends thathave high influence and low dependence towardsother trends.. Areas of change Trends thathave high impact butlower influence score and higher dependencescore. • Cost-cutting drives competitiveness. • Increased reliance on contractors. • Servitization leads to new value chains. • Transition towards bio-economy means higher margin offerings. No key area of opportunity where the money will be invested, was discovered within the Forest industry. All trends and were segmented and ranked according to level. Macro and micro trends were looked at more closely as they impact the specific industry. (step 1) Through influence analysis key drivers and key areas of change were identified. (step 2 and 3) The drivers were combined in different constellations to create different scenarios with different impact on key areas of change. The scenarios with most likelihood, most impact on industry and most impact on IT by 2020, were selected for scenario development. (step 4) Key opportunities for Tieto were identified within scenarios and trends and highlighted in the report. (step 5) Partnering Interfaces Value-added bio products Servitization Supplier and customer interfaces Mi Tec Mobility M2M Corporate accountability Environmental risks Use ofrenewable energy Robotics Me Tec Me Tec Me Soc Me Sec Ma Reg Ma Tec Governmentsubsidesand funding Servitization ofmanufacturing Ma Reg Ma Eco Mi Mi Mi Areas of growth: Forest companies expect, however, to invest further in customer and supplier interfaces, new and ’smart’ machinery with expanded GIS and automation to cut costs further. Note: Please see the Methodology section, delivered separately, for scoring and calculations of trends and scenarios and further methodological explanations.
- 5. © Tieto Corporation Retail & Wholesale trends Shortage of digital skills Resurgence of B2B e-commerce Evolving role of the store Blurred distinction between retail,wholesale and manufacturing Rivalry for personalized offerings Insight-based customer experience Growing importance of customer experience Knowledge management New entrants from other industries Mass-customization Scenarios Opportunities for Tieto Real-time retail: Digital payments: 4 5 • New non-traditional players compete in the retail market. • Mass, rather than niche customization. • Industry is driven by customer experience. • Retailing is an information-based industry. Blurred distinction between retail,wholesale and manufacturing Resurgence ofB2B e-commerce Enables retailers to address the new ways of shopping and the seamless in-store - digital experience by data collected and analyzed. Brings together financial services, telecom operators, retailers and device manufacturers and will lead to new opportunities for retailers. Segmented trends and factors of influence European single market Me Cyber security Globalisation Emerging markets Economic conditions Climate change Sustainability Scarce resources Generation Y Aging population Rise ofmiddle class Sharing economy Consumer power Big data and analytics Reg Me Sec Me Eco Me Eco Me Eco Me Env Me Env Me Env Me Soc Me Soc Me Soc Me Soc Me Soc Me Tec Regulation ofcross-bordere- commerce Ma Information security,data privacy Blurred distinction between retail, wholesale and manufacturing Wearable technology RFID Resurgence ofB2Be-commerce Leasing and sharing business models Growing importance ofcustomer experience Consumer trust Transparencyand traceability Click and collect Price sensitivity Private labels Dropshipping Evolving role ofthe store Omni-channel approach Reg Ma Sec Ma Eco Ma Tec Ma Tec Ma Env Ma Tec Ma Env Ma Soc Mi Reg Mi Reg Eco Eco Mi Eco Mi Eco Mi Eco Mi Eco Corporate social responsibility 1 Cloud Me Tec Connectivity Me Tec Digitalization Me Tec Conscious consumers C2C retail solution Mi Env Mi Env Mi Mi Mass-customization Shortage ofdigital skills Mi Soc Mi Soc New paymentsystems Entrants from other industries Mi Tec Mi Tec Env Alltrendsandweresegmentedandrankedaccordingtolevel.Macroandmicrotrends werelookedatmorecloselyastheyimpactthespecificindustry.(step1) Through influence analysis key drivers and key areas of change were identified. (step 2 and 3) The drivers were combined in different constellations to create different scenarios with different impact on key areas of change. The scenarios with most likelihood, most impact on industry and most impact on IT by 2020, were selected for scenario development. (step 4) Key opportunities for Tieto were identified within scenarios and trends and highlighted in the report. (step 5) Me Ma Mi Mega level:Global,long term,affects how the world looks Macro level:Medium term,affects one or many industries Micro level:Shorter term,changes industry dynamics Reg Eco Sec Regulatory Economic Risk, Security Env Soc Tec Environmental Societal Technological LEGEND: Drivers Factors and trends thathave high influence and low dependence towardsother trends.. Areas of change Trends thathave high impact butlower influence score and higher dependencescore. Key areas of change 2015-2020 Key industry drivers 2015-20202 3 Subscription-based business model Ma Eco Social media as an e-commerce channel Mi Tec Knowledge management Ma Tec Social networks in marketing Mi Tec 3D printing Ma Tec Digital offerings Mi Tec Augmented reality Ma Tec Stronger relationship with IT Mi Tec Bio-sensory technology Ma Tec Shortage of digital skills Evolving role ofthe store On-demand manufacturing: A power shift in the value chain where either manufacturers, retailers or new actors may emerge as winners 5 Note: Please see the Methodology section, delivered separately, for scoring and calculations of trends and scenarios and further methodological explanations.
- 6. © Tieto Corporation Logistics trends B2C E-commerce Omni-channellogistics Logistics marketplace Digital supply networks Next generation retail Adaptation to On-demand economy Consolidation and commoditization Full implementation of M2M / Industrialinternet Scenarios Opportunities for Tieto Autonomous logistics: Digital supply networks: 4 5 Transfer and delivery of goods and products to final destination with minimal human intervention. Holistic approach to supply chain with seamless information flow between across the value chain. Alltrendsandweresegmentedandrankedaccordingtolevel.Macroandmicro trendswerelookedatmorecloselyastheyimpactthespecificindustry.(step1) Through influence analysis key drivers and key areas of change were identified. (step 2 and 3) The drivers were combined in different constellations to create different scenarios with different impact on key areas of change. The scenarios with most likelihood, most impact on industry and most impact on IT by 2020, were selected for scenario development. (step 4) Key opportunities for Tieto were identified within scenarios and trends and highlighted in the report. (step 5) Me Ma Mi Mega level:Global,long term,affects how the world looks Macro level:Medium term,affects one or many industries Micro level:Shorter term,changes industry dynamics Reg Eco Sec Regulatory Economic Risk, Security Env Soc Tec Environmental Societal Technological LEGEND: Drivers Factors and trends thathave high influence and low dependence towardsother trends.. Areas of change Trends thathave high impact butlower influence score and higher dependencescore. Key areas of change 2015-2020 Key industry drivers 2015-20202 3 On-demand manufacturing: A power shift in the value chain where manufacturers, retailers or logistics companies may emerge as winners. Commodity logistics Consumer- centric logistics • Commoditization and consolidation of the industry drives cost-optimization. • Investments in autonomous systems. • Consumer-driven scenario where logistics companies focus on adapting their services to ’new’ retail market and consumers directly. Logistics marketplace Un-manned vehicles B2C E- commerce Omni channel logistics Delivery disrupted • Shift in demand of logistics services as crowd-solutions and 3D printing reduces the need for traditional logistics services. B2C E- commerce Supply networks Shareconomy & Crowd logistics 3D printing Un-manned vehicles Segmented trends and factors of influence Globalization Me Eco Augmented reality Ma Tec 1 Free trade Me Eco M2M / Industrial internet Ma Tec Climate change Me Env Multi-sourcing IT Ma Tec Sustainability Me Env Traceability Ma Tec Urbanization Me Soc Un-manned Vehicles (UAVs and UGVs) Ma Tec Generation Y Me Soc Autonomous fleets Ma Tec Aging population Me Soc C2C retail Mi Soc Sharing economy Me Soc Omni-channel logistics Mi Eco Rising consumer power Me Soc B2C E-commerce Ma Eco Cyber security Me Sec Urban logistics Mi Eco Big data and analytics Me Tec Logistics marketplace Mi Eco Cloud Me Tec Click and collect Mi Eco Internet of Things Me Tec Dropshipping Mi Eco Digitalization Me Tec Cluster manufacturing Mi Eco Connectivity and mobility Me Tec Manufacturers do more (e.g. packaging) Mi Eco Real time services Eco Value chain dominance Mi Eco Next generation retail Eco Digital supply networks Mi Eco Near-shoring Eco Convenience logistics Mi Soc Agile supply chains Eco Logistics as a Service (Laas) Mi Tec Consolidation Eco Anticipatory logistics Mi Tec Increasingly complex supply chains Eco On-demand SCM Mi Tec Eco-friendly transportation Env B2C package content information Mi Sec Economic and geopolitical uncertainty Sec Crowd sourced logistics Mi Soc Commoditization Soc Shareconomy logistics Mi Soc On-demand economy Soc Supergrid logistics Mi Tec 3D printing Tec Opening up interfaces Mi Tec Robotics and automation Tec Localization and local intelligence Mi Tec Wearable technology Tec Ma Ma Ma Ma Ma Ma Ma Ma Ma Ma Ma Ma Ma Increasing security measures Ma Sec Emission regulations Ma Env EU as a single market Reg Shortage of talent Ma Soc Modal shift towards ocean and rail Eco Me Ma 6 Note: Please see the Methodology section, delivered separately, for scoring and calculations of trends and scenarios and further methodological explanations.
- 7. © Tieto Corporation Telecommunication trends Entry to new industries Value added services Customer Experience Value chain integration Lack of organizational agility Disruptive competition (OTT) Increase in data traffic Regulatory pressures Scenarios Opportunities for Tieto Smart traffic: Digital payments: 4 5 The combination of sensors, connectivity, cameras enables both drivers and traffic management to make use of real-time traffic information. Brings together telecom operators, financial services, retailers and device manufacturers All trends and were segmented and ranked according to level. Macro and micro trends were looked at more closely as they impact the specific industry. (step 1) Through influence analysis key drivers and key areas of change were identified. (step 2 and 3) The drivers were combined in different constellations to create different scenarios with different impact on key areas of change. The scenarios with most likelihood, most impact on industry and most impact on IT by 2020, were selected for scenario development. (step 4) Key opportunities for Tieto were identified within scenarios and trends and highlighted in the report. (step 5) Me Ma Mi Mega level:Global,long term,affects how the world looks Macro level:Medium term,affects one or many industries Micro level:Shorter term,changes industry dynamics Reg Eco Sec Regulatory Economic Risk, Security Env Soc Tec Environmental Societal Technological LEGEND: Drivers Factors and trends thathave high influence and low dependence towardsother trends.. Areas of change Trends thathave high impact butlower influence score and higher dependencescore. Key areas of change 2015-2020 Key industry drivers 2015-20202 3 Digital identification: A trusted digital domain for identification, relying on network connectivity. 7 Note: Please see the Methodology section for scoring and calculations of trends and scenarios and further methodological explanations. Customer centric content & services Telecoms as business enablers • Increase in demand for content and services over the network. • Customer Experience through personalization. • Telecoms unable to adapt to challenge new competition. • M&A and partnerships to secure market shares. Customer Experience Value added services Value chain integration Customer Experience Securing positions in new industries • Regulatory pressures, increasing competition and lower margins incentivizes telecom actors to pursue growth in new industries. Entry to new industries Value added services Telco enabled ecosystems Monetization of the customer data, facilitated by advanced analytics and offered through open APIs to enable other industries. Segmented trends and factors of influence Big data,analytics Me Cloud computing Connectivity Cyber Security Digital ecosystems Digitalization Emerging markets Generation Y Globalization Increased threatofterrorism IoT (InternetofThings) Netneutrality Customer Experience Digital identity services Tec Me Tec Me Tec Me Sec Me Eco Me Tec Me Eco Me Soc Me Eco Me Sec Me Tec Me Reg Ma Soc Ma Sec 1 Digital payments Ma Tec Frequency of network replacements Ma Tec Green Internet Ma Env Increase in data traffic Ma Information security and data privacy M2M / Industrial Internet Network security Regulatory pressures Smart buildings /homes Talentacquisition (new expertise) The rise ofsocial media Value added services (content/IT) Wearable technologies Abolishmentofroaming charges Entry to new industries Digital trust Disruptive competition (OTT) Soc Ma Sec Ma Tec Ma Sec Ma Reg Ma Tec Ma Eco Ma Soc Ma Eco Ma Tec Mi Reg Mi Eco Mi Soc Mi Eco Lack oforganizational agility Mi Eco Reduced margins from traditional services Mi Eco SDN & NFV Mi Tec Value chain integration Mi Eco E-Sim Mi Tec Mobile Virtual Network Operator Mi Tec
- 8. © Tieto Corporation DIY media creation and distribution Consolidation Rise of On-demand Personalization & Customer Experience Shared data ecosystems Growth of OTT Content and Actors 8 Automated production, distribution, marketing Self-service re-bundling Increase in visual / video communication New payment, monetization models Collaborative Customer Experience Enhancement DIY media On demand Scenarios Opportunities for Tieto Virtual Reality: E-learning: 4 5 • Driven by the industry actors • Shared data ecosystems increases knowledge of customers and is used for personalization • Driven by the consumers • Rise of On-demand services and consumers media producers and distributors. Automated production, distribution,marketing New payment, monetization models New payment, monetization models Self-service re- bundling Virtual reality brings together media, education, retail, healthcare and manufacturing under one area of technology. Learning, both academically but also in working life, is expected fast growth through the use of mobile connectivity and greater offering. Decline of traditional media actors • Driven by consolidation of traditional actors in the industry, and the entrance of new players. Traditional industry borders are blurred. Automated production, distribution,marketing New payment, monetization models Alltrendsandweresegmentedandrankedaccordingtolevel.Macroandmicro trendswerelookedatmorecloselyastheyimpactthespecificindustry.(step1) Through influence analysis key drivers and key areas of change were identified. (step 2 and 3) The drivers were combined in different constellations to create different scenarios with different impact on key areas of change. The scenarios with most likelihood, most impact on industry and most impact on IT by 2020, were selected for scenario development. (step 4) Key opportunities for Tieto were identified within scenarios and trends and highlighted in the report. (step 5) Me Ma Mi Mega level:Global,long term,affects how the world looks Macro level:Medium term,affects one or many industries Micro level:Shorter term,changes industry dynamics Reg Eco Sec Regulatory Economic Risk, Security Env Soc Tec Environmental Societal Technological LEGEND: Drivers Factors and trends thathave high influence and low dependence towardsother trends.. Areas of change Trends thathave high impact butlower influence score and higher dependencescore. Key areas of change 2015-20203 Note: Please see the Methodology section for scoring and calculations of trends and scenarios and further methodological explanations. Segmented trends and factors of influence1 Growth ofmessaging /w added features SocMi Increase in video / visual communication SocMi Increased usage of suggestions vs. Searches TecMa Declining ad revenues (digital and ad- blocking) SocMi Increasing value ofpersonal data SocMa Internetpiracy TecMe IoT (InternetofThings) TecMe Media aggregation EcoMi Media houses moving into new markets EcoMi Mobile majority SocMa Net neutrality, Internet governance PolMe New payment, monetization models TecMi OTT contentand actors EcoMa Personalization and customer experience EcoMa Real time contentand services TecMi Reduced paper usage EnvMa Rise ofon-demand SocMa Rising costofquality content EcoMa Self service re-bundling EcoMi Servitization EcoMa Applied data science for product development TecMa Augmented and virtual reality TecMa Automated, production and marketing TecMa Big data,analytics TecMe Cloud computing TecMe Connectivity TecMe Consolidation EcoMa Cyber security TecMe Data traffic crunch TecMa Declining linear television TecMi Digital trust SecMa Digitalization TecMe DIY media creation and distribution SocMa Education 2.0 SocMa Expanded interfaces (TV) TecMa From commercials to Integrated Points of Sale EcoMi Generation Y SocMe Globalization EcoMe Governance 2.0 RegMa Growing importance of social media as a channel SocMa Growth ofcommunities SocMa Shared data ecosystems SocMa Sharing economy SocMe Social media monetization models EcoMa Wearable technologies TecMa Key industry drivers 2015-2020 2 Media trends
- 9. © Tieto Corporation Energy & Utilities trends 9 Brokerage for personalized experience Industry convergence through domotics Distributed / Micro generation Regulation and subsidies Smart grids Changing customer demand (control) Scenarios Opportunities for Tieto Distributed generation: Smart grids: 4 5 • Focus on personalized services enabled by customer data. Through the value of the data, utilities claim customer ownership. • Distributed generation, new industry entrants and enabling regulation and subsidies centers the industry around home automation. Personalization & Servitization Energy data hubs Domotics /Home automation Convergence of industries Distributed generation market size is estimated to be worth USD 180 billion by 2020 and its share of capacity of additions will be 42%. Global smart grid market size is estimated at USD 120 billion by 2020 with a CAGR of 18% through 2015 – 2020. Industry disruption postponed • Easing cost pressure on the industry actors, in combination with slow deployment of smart grids, postpones industry changes. Convergence of industries Energy data hubs Segmented trends and factors of influence Automation Me Big data,analytics Connectivity Digitalization Finite natural resources Globalization Increased threatofterrorism IoT (InternetofThings) Sustainability Urbanization Automatic reading, monitoring and control Convergence ofindustries Customer centricity Cyber security Tec Me Tec Me Tec Me Tec Me Env Me Eco Me Sec Me Tex Me Soc Me Soc Ma Tec Ma Eco Ma Eco Ma Sec Environmental reputation Ma Geopolitical tensions M2M / Industrial Internet Personalization &Servitization Renewable energy Rise of unconventional energy sources Smart cities Smart grids Changing customer demand (control) Costpressures Distributed /Micro generation Domotics /Home automation Energy data hubs Grid scale storage Soc Ma Sec Ma Tec Ma Env Ma Soc Ma Tec Ma Eco Ma Soc Ma Tec Soc Eco Mi Tec Mi Tec Mi Tec Mi Tec Regulation and subsidies 1 Electric vehicles Ma Tec Emissions and air pollution Ma Soc Energy efficiency Ma Eco New business models(brokerage) New entrants Mi Eco Mi Eco Mi Mi New pricing models Supplier centric model Mi Eco Mi Soc Transactive energy Mi Eco Reg All trends and were segmented and ranked according to level. Macro and micro trends were looked at more closely as they impact the specific industry. (step 1) Through influence analysis key drivers and key areas of change were identified. (step 2 and 3) The drivers were combined in different constellations to create different scenarios with different impact on key areas of change. The scenarios with most likelihood, most impact on industry and most impact on IT by 2020, were selected for scenario development. (step 4) Key opportunities for Tieto were identified within scenarios and trends and highlighted in the report. (step 5) Me Ma Mi Mega level:Global,long term,affects how the world looks Macro level:Medium term,affects one or many industries Micro level:Shorter term,changes industry dynamics Reg Eco Sec Regulatory Economic Risk, Security Env Soc Tec Environmental Societal Technological LEGEND: Drivers Factors and trends thathave high influence and low dependence towardsother trends.. Areas of change Trends thathave high impact butlower influence score and higher dependencescore. Key areas of change 2015-2020 Key industry drivers 2015-20202 3 Note: Please see the Methodology section for scoring and calculations of trends and scenarios and further methodological explanations. Convergence of industries Energy data hubs Domotics / Home automation New business models (brokerage) Personalization & Servitization Cost pressures New business models
- 10. © Tieto Corporation Healthcare & Welfare trends 10 Wearable technology Home care services Personalized co- solution approach Prevention & early detection Remote health management Pre-emptive personalized healthcareInformed patient- customers Cost pressures Internet of Everything Aging population Scenarios Opportunities for Tieto Digital health management Smart health monitoring homes 4 5 • Driven by cost pressure and preference for home care. • Interconnectivity of people and devices an imperative. • Driven by aware, informed and demanding patients-customers. • Reciprocal relationships between patient-customers and professionals. Wearable technology Home care services Personalized co-solution approach Prevention &early detection Brings together technology such as wearables and bio-sensing, Internet of Everything as well as aware and informed patient-customers. Predictive and automated home bundles up remote control of utilities, remote monitoring of people and automation enabling assisted living. Segmented trends and factors of influence EU Regulation Me Cyber security Expansion ofoutsourcing atthe state and local level Sustainability Aging population Rise ofthe middle class Generation Y Cloud Internetof Everything Big data Digitalization Standardization ofhealthcare services Information security and data privacy Public-private collaboration Reg Me Sec Me Eco Me Env Me Soc Me Soc Me Soc Me Tec Me Tec Me Tec Me Tec Ma Reg Ma Sec Ma Eco Informed patient-customers Preference for home care Data storage technology Documentation requirements Costpressure Home care services From paper to electronic medical records Personalized co-solution approach Engagementthrough social media Online patientcommunities Willingness to share personal data Unified patientdatabases Prevention &early detection Ma Soc Ma SocMa Env Tec Mi Reg Mi Eco Mi Eco Mi Env Soc Soc Mi Soc Mi SocMi TecMi Tec Wearable technology 1 Consolidation Ma Eco Increasing demand for sustainable products Ma Env Growing customer expectations Ma Soc mHealth Mi Tec Mi Mi Tec All trends and were segmented and ranked according to level. Macro and micro trends were looked at more closely as they impact the specific industry. (step 1) Through influence analysis key drivers and key areas of change were identified. (step 2 and 3) The drivers were combined in different constellations to create different scenarios with different impact on key areas of change. The scenarios with most likelihood, most impact on industry and most impact on IT by 2020, were selected for scenario development. (step 4) Key opportunities for Tieto were identified within scenarios and trends and highlighted in the report. (step 5) Me Ma Mi Mega level:Global,long term,affects how the world looks Macro level:Medium term,affects one or many industries Micro level:Shorter term,changes industry dynamics Reg Eco Sec Regulatory Economic Risk, Security Env Soc Tec Environmental Societal Technological LEGEND: Drivers Factors and trends thathave high influence and low dependence towardsother trends.. Areas of change Trends thathave high impact butlower influence score and higher dependencescore. Key areas of change 2015-2020 Key industry drivers 2015-20202 3 Mi Ma Ma Personalized medicine Soc Mi Note: Please see the Methodology section, delivered separately, for scoring and calculations of trends and scenarios and further methodological explanations.
- 11. © Tieto Corporation Public sector trends 11 Digital public services Outsourcing government functions Key areas of change 2015-2020 Key industry drivers 2015-2020 Digital signage and smart urban screens Public sector optimization and outsourcing Citizen-enabled smart public services Scenarios Opportunities for Tieto Digital public services: (incl. open public data and digital ID as enblers. 2 3 4 5 Me Ma Mi Mega level:Global,long term,affects how the world looks Macro level:Medium term,affects one or many industries Micro level:Shorter term,changes industry dynamics Reg Eco Sec Regulatory Economic Risk, Security Env Soc Tec Environmental Societal Technological LEGEND: Drivers Factors and trends thathave high influence and low dependence towardsother trends.. Areas of change Trends thathave high impact butlower influence score and higher dependencescore. • Driven by a smaller tax-payer base and the need for a more efficient public sector. • Investments in DIY services and oursourcing of non-core functions. • Empowered citizens demand better access and customization of services. • Digital identification systems enable citizens to receive personalized public services. Through influence analysis key drivers and key areas of change were identified. (step 2 and 3) The drivers were combined in different constellations to create different scenarios with different impact on key areas of change. The scenarios with most likelihood, most impact on industry and most impact on IT by 2020, were selected for scenario development. (step 4) Key opportunities for Tieto were identified within scenarios and trends and highlighted in the report. (step 5) Digital public services Outsourcing of government functions Digital signage and smart urban screens Open data applications The public sector still primarily operates with paper processes. Some have been digitally enhanced, but are not digital in their foundation. Strong uptake and use of open public data Increasing usage of digital identification Shrinking workforce,less government funding Strong citizen influence Open data applications With an estimated market value of € 32 billion in the EU alone, open public data offers significant benefits to both public and private sector. Digital identification fully unlocks digital public services and enables citizen self-service, which is beneficial to both governments and citizens. Alltrendsandweresegmentedandrankedaccordingtolevel.Macroandmicro trendswerelookedatmorecloselyastheyimpactthespecificindustry.(step1) Segmented trends and factors of influence Me Reg Increasing digital identification Ma Tec 1 Increasing global competition Me Eco Intelligent Transport Systems Ma Tec Terrorism Me Sec Un-manned vehicles / transport Ma Tec National security Me Sec Urban noise reduction measurements Mi Reg Climate change Me Env Smart homes / buildings Mi Reg Finite natural resources Me Env Collaborative ITsystems Mi Eco Aging population Me Soc Public Private Partnerships (PPP) Mi Eco Generation Y Me Soc Prevention of grey economy Mi Eco Immigration / Migration Me Soc Nordic housing bubble Mi Eco Urbanization Me Soc Specialization of knowledge intensive growth sectors Mi Eco E-citizens Me Soc Increasing R&D funding Mi Eco Cloud Me Tec Crisis response systems (apps SoMe) Mi Sec Digitalization Me Tec Digital video monitoring Mi Sec Electrification of transport Mi Env EU regulation Ma Reg Increased use of hybrid vehicles Mi Eco Customer-centric approach Eco Increased use of sustainable biofuels Mi Eco Household debt Eco Smart grids and energy monitoring Mi Eco Rising unemployment Eco City hubs Mi Soc Increasing cyber security needs Sec Concerns over immigration policies Mi Soc Sustainable cities Env Flipped classroom Mi Soc Blended learning Soc Growing knowledge Mi Soc Consolidation of public actors Eco Commuter parking Mi Soc Digitalization of cultural content Soc Local communities Mi Soc Educational shift Soc Online degrees and open courses Mi Soc Shrinking workforce, less gov. funding Soc Personalized learning Mi Soc Social exclusion and segregation Soc Advanced ticketing systems Mi Tec Open public data Tec Digital payment systems Mi Tec Digital government platforms Tec Ma Ma Ma Ma Ma Ma Ma Ma Ma Ma Ma Ma Ma Improved funding for start-ups Mi Eco Outsourcing government functions Mi Eco Centralization Eco Increased surveillance Ma Tec Digital public services Tec Ma Ma Empowered citizens Ma Soc Growing knowledge and wealth gap Ma Soc Free trade agreements E-learning Mi Tec Hybrid library Mi Tec Open data applications Mi Tec Investment in smart digital infrastructure Mi Tec Smart waste management Mi Tec Digital urban smart screens Mi Tec Digital signage (real time information) Mi Tec On-demand transit services Mi Tec Intelligent traffic systems Mi Tec Big data analytics Me Tec Digital trust Ma Sec Note: Please see the Methodology section, delivered separately, for scoring and calculations of trends and scenarios and further methodological explanations.