The future of IT should be Green
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This is the talk I delivered at the 56th CEPIS Council on the topic of why should IT be Green. I started with bad news - the climate is in trouble. But then went on to the good news of all the ways IT can help mitigate, and possibly even reduce the problem.
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The future of IT should be Green
- 1. The future of IT should be Green CEPIS 2016 Athens @TomRaftery
- 2. • Independent analyst, IoT, Energy and CleanTech, • tomraftery.com • twitter.com/tomraftery • tom@tomraftery.com • +34 677 695 468 • SlideShare.net/TomRaftery 2 Tom Raftery @TomRaftery
- 3. @TomRaftery3 • Bad news • Good news
- 14. @TomRaftery14
- 15. @TomRaftery15 "a long-term goal of keeping the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels" 2015 Paris Climate Accord http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/international/negotiations/paris/index_en.htm
- 16. @TomRaftery16 2 ̊C = 1,100 GtCO2 http://www.nature.com/articles/nature14016.epdf
- 17. @TomRaftery17 1,100 GtCO2 = Carbon Budget http://www.nature.com/articles/nature14016.epdf
- 18. @TomRaftery18 Proven Reserves = 3,300 GtCO2 http://www.nature.com/articles/nature14016.epdf
- 19. @TomRaftery19 1,100 GtCO2 = 2 ̊C 3,300 GtCO2 = Reserves => Uh Oh! http://www.nature.com/articles/nature14016.epdf
- 20. @TomRaftery20
- 25. @TomRaftery25 http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/apr/28/germany-subsidy-boost-electric-car-sales
- 35. @TomRaftery Electricity grids - dumb! http://www.flickr.com/photos/bright/24691962/ 35
- 38. @TomRaftery38 Architected for the Past http://www.flickr.com/photos/bakewell/35026819/
- 40. @TomRaftery40
- 48. @TomRaftery48
- 64. @TomRaftery64
- 65. @TomRaftery65
- 67. @TomRaftery67 http://www.popsci.com/researchers-accidentally-make-batteries-last-400-times-longer
- 72. @TomRaftery Photo http://www.teslamotors.com/ 72 70kW x 250,000 cars = 17.5 GWh p.a.
- 75. @TomRaftery75
- 83. @TomRaftery Internet of Things - LV 83 http://www.metering.com/epris-automated-dr-software-tells-appliances-when-its-cheapest-to-run/
- 90. @TomRaftery90 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/aerofarms-newark-kale_us_5717d500e4b0479c59d6d2ae
- 95. @TomRaftery Conclusion 95 • Climate change is an enormous challenge • Renewables and storage will be transformative • With IT can we “Make it so!”
- 96. @TomRaftery Thanks Merci Danke Gracias Grazie Tak Go raibh maith agat Obrigado TackDzięki Kösz Bedankt Takk Díky Благодаря Hvala Kiitos Kösz pateicība dėkoju Mulțumiri благодарение хвала vďakadiolch 96 Ευχαριστώ
Editor's Notes
- Analyst/Futurist Typically looking 5-10 years out
- Measure of incoming ocean breeze above the thermal inversion layer to minimise local contamination On May 9, 2013 passed 400 ppm for the first time In 2014 stayed above 400ppm for 3 months For 6 months in 2015, and now permanently above 400ppm?
- Measure of incoming ocean breeze above the thermal inversion layer to minimise local contamination On May 9, 2013 passed 400 ppm for the first time In 2014 stayed above 400ppm for 3 months For 7 months in 2015, and now permanently above 400ppm?
- Measure of incoming ocean breeze above the thermal inversion layer to minimise local contamination On May 9, 2013 passed 400 ppm for the first time In 2014 stayed above 400ppm for 3 months For 6 months in 2015, and now permanently above 400ppm?
- Measure of incoming ocean breeze above the thermal inversion layer to minimise local contamination On May 9, 2013 passed 400 ppm for the first time In 2014 stayed above 400ppm for 3 months For 6 months in 2015, and now permanently above 400ppm?
- Last record cold month was 99 years ago
- Margaret Davidson, NOAA’s senior advisor for coastal inundation and resilience science and services… said recent data that has been collected but has yet to be made official indicates sea levels could rise by roughly 3 meters or 9 feet by 2050-2060
- 195 of the world’s countries adopted the first-ever universal, legally binding global climate deal Governments agreed - a long-term goal of keeping the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels; - to aim to limit the increase to 1.5°C, since this would significantly reduce risks and the impacts of climate change; - on the need for global emissions to peak as soon as possible, recognising that this will take longer for developing countries; - to undertake rapid reductions thereafter in accordance with the best available science.
- 1 Gigaton = 1,000,000,000 tons Global emissions 40-50 GtCO2 per annum Planet re-absorbs around 25 GtCO2
- 1 Gigaton = 1,000,000,000 tons Global emissions 40-50 GtCO2 per annum Planet re-absorbs around 25 GtCO2
- 3,300 GtCo2 is the amount of carbon already contained in the proven coal, oil and gas reserves of the fossil-fuel companies, and countries
- Between 60-80% of coal, oil and gas reserves of publicly listed companies are ‘unburnable’ if the world is to have a chance of not exceeding global warming of 2°C Approx = $20tn
- Electricity - 38% Transportation - 32% Electrification of transportation fleet means up to 70% of emissions can be affected by leveraging electricity
- Model S costs $100k >125k Tesla’s on the road today Model 3 coming in 2017 will cost $35k, 400,000 already pre-ordered
- Motion adopted by lower house of the Dutch parliament,still needs to pass the senate Currently 10% of new car sales
- Buses can go full day on a single charge, and need 4 hours to recharge overnight on off peak electricity
- Total consumption is 1.4 TWh per year Currently 50% from wind 100% by 2018
- In 2012, PlanetSolar became the first ever solar electric vehicle to circumnavigate the globe.
- Solar Impulse II - Longest non-stop solo flight in history 72 hours Japan - Hawaii
- Airbus E-Fan - Flew across English Channel in 36 mins Going into commercial production in 2017 with 2 & 4 seat versions
- When there is a blackout - the first the utility knows about it is when the phone rings with people asking where their electricity has gone
- Blackouts/brownouts are not uncommon
- Read only - not read/write Many electricity companies don't want you to place electricity back into the grid.
- Designed for a situation where supply is constant and controllable but demand is variable but predictable Now with the requirement of adding renewables - Supply is becoming variable and unpredictable With supply and demand both variable comes increased instability - We must therefore introduce some flexibility into our demand.
- No cloud computing for electricity generation, so requires peaking plants - dirty & run as little as a few hours per year
- Renewables (wind & solar) Storage (batteries & trains!) IoT (digitisation of energy)
- Variable generators - the bogey man
- Typical demand curve April 29th - morning & evening peaks, overnight low 2-3am Supply of renewables is often almost exactly out of synch with demand Wind often blows strongest overnight when energy demand is lowest
- Supply of renewables is generally out of synch with demand Wind often blows strongest overnight when energy demand is lowest
- High winds allowed Denmark to meet all of its electricity needs – with plenty to spare for Germany, Norway and Sweden too
- Swanson effect - price of PV falls 20% for every doubling of installed capacity
- Price falls -> more attractive -> more installed -> price falls => Virtuous circle
- Riyadh-based Acwa Power had lowest bid And offered to go to 5.4c if they got the whole 1,000MW The solar power will be sold to Dewa for 5.84c/kWh over 25 years Natural gas – which generates 99% of the UAE’s electricity – costs 9c
- Less than 1.5 years later, price dropped from 5.84c to 2.99c/kWh
- China, increasing its solar target to 70GW by 2017 Try doing that with nuclear
- India alone have a goal of 100GW by 2022
- And this price is heading towards the poles
- 25.7% renewables (of which 40% wind, and 52% solar) 24.5% coal 28.4% natural gas 17.5% hydro 3.8% oil
- Pumped hydro storage is a mature technology However large capital cost (€ billions) Requires specific geological conditions (two lakes separated by about 400m height) Amt of storage dictated by geography not by needs!
- Compressed air energy storage Storage mechanism for limited amounts of energy. Large capital cost and requires certain geological structures (large caverns underground)
- The company claims the process, end to end, is 86 percent efficient
- 1-2MWh Battery leasing -> analytics subscription Alevo
- Tesla is market making 7kWh - $3,000
- Called Gigafactory 1 Produce 35 GWh of batteries per annum Reduce costs of batteries by 30% Tesla wants to produce 500,000 cars per annum
- large distributed battery bank - virtual power plant Car batteries 60-90kWh Powerwall - 10kWh
- IT as the enabler
- Predictive maintenance - many vendors have solutions to address this
- Behind the meter is where it gets interesting Increasing # of in-home devices are connected
- Smart Utility Systems - apps for controlling the home Ppl want more intelligent devices - set & forget
- Turn electricity into a market Real-time dynamic pricing based solely on supply and demand In times of heavy supply and light demand electricity v cheap or negative to stimulate demand. Avoids curtailment of renewables. Stimulates usage by unlikely energy stores (swimming pools, refrigeration plants, EVs) When demand heavy and supply light - electricity expensive. DCs go on diesel generators/battery, refrigeration plants, water heaters adjust thermostats, AC adjusts thermostat
- Whirlpool dryer Appliances subscribe to realtime pricing info & adjust their behaviour accordingly Water heating Fridges & freezers Aircon
- Ice air-conditioning
- Demand flexibility can unlock $13 billion per year of avoided grid investment and 10 to 40% savings on customer bills.
- EPRI developed it with American Electric Power, California Independent System Operator, Électricité de France S.A., ESB Networks Ltd. (Ireland), Kansas City Power and Light Company, New York Independent System Operator, The Southern Company, and Tokyo Electric Power Company, Inc.
- Companies like Uber will come and disrupt the markets. Constantly polling for optimal provider?
- uses - 95% less water than traditional farms, and says it gets - 75 times more crops per square foot of growing space than traditional field systems
- making the plant-based burger uses - 99% less land, - 85% less water, and emits - 89% less greenhouse gas than traditional beef production
- 3D Ocean farming