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The Game Life-Cycle and Game Analytics: What metrics matter when?

Casual Connect Hamburg 2012

Mark Gazecki (Chairman)
Introduction
       HoneyTracks: Web-based game analytics solution




Deep analytical capability   For all types of games             Real-time / near real-time
Cohort analysis, funnels,    Social games, browser-games,
data-filtering               client games, mobile games


Custom metrics & funnels     Easy-to-use graphical              For everyone in the company
                             interface                          Information at everyone’s finger-
                             Avoiding data-graveyards           tips: Game design, product mgmt,
                             (happens if people can’t use it)   marketing, management, …




                                     Copyright HoneyTracks                                          2
Game Life-Cycle & Metrics
The 5 most important metrics




              The never-ending quest
              for the most important 5
                      metrics …




                      Copyright HoneyTracks   3
Game Life-Cycle & Metrics
The 5 most important metrics


                   The never-ending quest
              for the most important 5 metrics
                             …
                                 .
                                 .
                                 .

                        …
          is indeed a never-ending quest




                       Copyright HoneyTracks     4
Game Life-Cycle & Metrics
        The 5 most important metrics


                                                   …
                                         there is no such thing
                                            as the universal
                                       5 most important metrics



Games are unique & different                                      Games have a life-cycle

To generate actionable insight differences in each                What is important changes over the life-time of a
game must be considered. This has an implication                  game. This must be reflected in the metrics / KPIs
for the metrics you want to monitor.




                                               Copyright HoneyTracks                                                   5
Game Life-Cycle & Metrics
         Moore‘s lifecycle adoption model applied to games

Prototypical Technology Product Lifecycle (taken from “Crossing the Chasm”)




      Growth                        Maturity & Revenues




          •  Like any other technology-product, games have a product lifecycle (may be
             more or less pronounced for certain game-types and individual games)
          •  First focus is on growth then on managing maturity and maximizing revenues


                                             Copyright HoneyTracks                        6
Game Life-Cycle & Metrics
Virality vs retention



                         What would
                       you rather have?




Double the virality?                             Half the churn-rate?




                         Copyright HoneyTracks                          7
Game Life-Cycle & Metrics
         Why retention comes first

Number of active users (conceptual)
 3000                                                                        Assumptions       Viral game   Ret. game

                                                                             Viral invites /
 2500                                                                        user
                                                                                                  2.5         1.25
                    Viral game
 2000                                                                        Churn-rate          80%          40%

 1500

 1000
                                      Game with better retention
  500

    0
        Month Month Month Month Month Month Month Month Month
          1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9




            •  Game with better retention has higher number of average monthly users
            •  No retention – no sustainable growth – no hit
            •  … and since users tend to monetize better as they progress in the game,
               higher retention lays the basis for strong monetization


                                                Copyright HoneyTracks                                                   8
Game Life-Cycle & Metrics
                 Game life-cycle KPI framework

              Game Life-Cycle (time / age of game)


                                                    User acquisition
                       Retention                                                         Monetization
Bring initial users                                        Virality
  into the game
  (x-promotion,
“limited launch”)



                      Engagement                     Acquisition &                        Monetization
                        metrics                      virality metrics                       metrics


                           •  Start out by making sure that “retention” is good enough with an initial flow of
                              users, i.e. not all users you acquire churn out immediately
                           •  Then move onto optimizing “user acquisistion”, “virality”, and “monetization
                           •  … but of course this is an additive view!!!

                                                      Copyright HoneyTracks                                      9
Game Life-Cycle & Metrics
       Retention metrics: What to start with

Retention / Engagement Metrics


  1-7 day retention

                                                            •  Optimize tutorial (to get users effectively into the
  Tutorial steps funnel                                        game)
                                                            •  A/B-test user funnels
  Drop-off rates (by level)                                 •  Optimize user drop-off events (make it less
                                                               difficult, more “funner”, …)

  Visits / DAU                                              •  Give user more / less stuff to do / more energy
                                                               (-> session length. engagement)
                                                            •  Track feature-usages (also for mid- / end-game)
  Session times
                                                            •  A/B-test game mechanics (esp. mid- / end-game)

  Churn-rate (monthly)



                                1 / monthly churn-rate
                                            =
                              Player lifetime (in months)



                                                Copyright HoneyTracks                                                 10
Game Life-Cycle & Metrics
       Acquisition metrics: What to start with

Acquisition Metrics


  Conversion rates (CTR)


  User acquisition cost (CPC, CPI / PAC)
                                                          •  Test different marketing channels
  Metrics by marketing channel / ad                       •  A/B-test different creatives
  (cohort analysis)
                                                          •  A/B-test different targeting (demographics,
                                                             geographies)
  Metrics by demographics (cohort analysis)
                                                          •  Monitor PLTV > PAC (for channel cohorts,
                                                             demographies etc)
  Metrics by geography (cohort analysis)

  Metrics by user source (e.g. player life-
  time value) (ads, viral, x-promotion)


                                                Start tracking monetization
                                              metrics by user cohorts early on
                                               (channels, demography, …)


                                              Copyright HoneyTracks                                        11
Game Life-Cycle & Metrics
           Example: Marketing channels

Screenshot: Channel profitability
                                                                                              ... shows that Channel 1
                                                                                               has 50% of Channel 32
                                                                                                   revenues despite
                                                                                                  having 2.5x in DAU
                                                Segmenting users by
                                                marketing channel ...




                                                                                  1                                           32
                                                                                                Marketing Channel


      1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11                                    32 33

                            Marketing Channel                                           Comparing payouts to
                                                                                        „revenues“ shows that
                                                                                       Channel 1 has more „lost
                                                                                      revenue“, i.e. issues in the
  We could improve the game:                                                               payment process
  •  Focus on user aquisition from ch32
  •  Double check payment type (SMS) and charge
     backs in ch1
  •  Switch off certain payment methods at special times                    1               Marketing Channel            32


                                                          Copyright HoneyTracks                                                    12
Game Life-Cycle & Metrics
        Virality metrics: What to start with

Virality Metrics


   k-factor


   Number of sent invites / DAU
                                                       •  A/B-test content for viral message (how
                                                          should buttons look, images, etc)
   Acceptance rate (by type of invite)                 •  A/B-test different viral triggers (in the game)
                                                       •  A/B-test different acceptance mechanisms
   % of virally acquired users
   (last 30 days cohort)

   Number of viral users by viral source




                                           Copyright HoneyTracks                                            13
Game Life-Cycle & Metrics
       Monetization metrics: What to start with

Monetization Metrics


  ARPU


  ARPPU                                          •  A/B-test alternatives to improve first-time
                                                    buyer conversion (e.g. specials, variants of that
                                                    particular virtual good)
  Payment conversion rate
                                                 •  Optimize user-flow towards first purchase
                                                    trigger (-> get more users there)
  Avg. transaction value                         •  A/B-test different virtual goods & packages
                                                 •  Optimize payment process (conversion steps)
  First purchase trigger                         •  A/B-test pricing

  Paying user cohort (by marketing
  channel, by geography

  Player life-time value (PLTV)




                                     Copyright HoneyTracks                                              14
Custom Metrics
Game life-cycle KPI framework: Introducing custom-metrics

                              User acquisition
  Retention                                                         Monetization
                                     Virality



                              Standard metrics


                               Custom metrics



      •  Standard metrics are great for detecting issues on a high level
      •  To derive actionable insight need to drill deeper and look at custom metrics



                                Copyright HoneyTracks                                   15
Custom Metrics
 Drill-down capability & custom metrics to derive actionable insight

                                         Observe slight decrease
   “Peeling                                in aggregate ARPU
  the onion”                              in month of February




                  Payment conversion rate                              ARPPU
                       is decreasing                               remains constant




  Payment conversion                  Payment conversion
for existing users stays         for the user cohort acquired
        constant                     in January is very low




Users acquired in January                                             The pricing for a virtual
                                   Mix of users in January
from marketing channel                                               good, which typically was
                                  shifted towards countries
“SuperDuperAds” have a                                                 the first virtual good
                                     with generally lower
    significantly lower                                              purchased by users, was
                                       conversion rates
     conversion rate                                                          changed


                                    Copyright HoneyTracks                                         16
Game Life-Cycle & Metrics
        Example: ARPU cohort analysis
Screenshot: ARPU cohort analysis




                                                                   Aggregate ARPU
                                                                      is 2 Euro




                                                          Monthly cohorts show
                         ... and we see that               that ARPU actually
                        ARPU improved from                  becomes 4 Euro!
                         April to May cohort


     •  Aggregate numbers don‘t tell the
        truth

     •  As a next step we would dig
        deeper into the May-cohort to
        understand why it generated
        better ARPU

                                           Copyright HoneyTracks                    17
Game Analytics Examples
           „Peel the onion“: Payment conversion (1)

Screenshot: Revenue analysis by level


                                                                                                 Pretty effective at
                             Majority of revenues                                               monetizing advanced
                           achieved in levels 20-30                                                   users ...




                                                                          0          10        20        30         40        50
       0      10      20        30        40
                                                                                                           ... but what about users
                                                                                                                in earlier levels?
                                                                                     Can we push users
                                                                                   into making purchases
                                                                                          earlier?
                            What are virtual goods
                           that are useful at earlier
                                    levels?



                                                                 0            10          20        30        40         50


                                                  Copyright HoneyTracks
                                                                                                                               18
Game Analytics Examples
         „Peel the onion“: Payment conversion (2)
                                 At lower levels „food“ is
                                being purchased relatively
                                          higher



                                                               ... so this may be the
                                                                 virtual good, which
                                                              converts users into „first
                                                                     time buyers“




                                                                                            ... even though „food“
                                                                                           doesn‘t play a major role
                                                                                                  in revenues




We could improve the game
•  Offering „food“ specials to users at lower
   levels
•  Try lower prices for food to generate more
   first time buyers


                                                Copyright HoneyTracks                                             19
Game Analytics Examples
          „Peel the onion“: Whales Analysis

                                                            What is her
                                                             profile
                Who are my
                 whales?




                     What, when and how
                      much of each item
                     works best for her?
                                                                                        What payment
We could improve the game                                                               does she use
•  See what works best for whales and offer
   higher variety of same type
•  Increase prices step-wise for new items
   and monitor closely
•  Try out special offers for items that work                             Different colors indicate different feature/
   for other whales                                                       item types - “mouse over “shows details
•  Optimize payment options

                                                Copyright HoneyTracks                                                20
Game Analytics & Game Life-Cycle
How to approach it right


Start with retention metrics.
Then move to user acquisition-, virality-, and monetization metrics.

Start with standard metrics.
Then move to custom metrics to generate actionable insight

„Peel the onion“ to derive actionable insight
(cohort analysis etc)

Understand it is an ongoing effort, which involves multiple
functions / departments in your company (not all which are tech-people)

Make sure you have the right game analytics system
(it should support all of the above)




                                       Copyright HoneyTracks              21
Contact information



                Want to see        HoneyTracks in action?
                Check out:


                www.honeytracks.com
                      @HoneyTracks




                Mark Gazecki
                mg@honeytracks.com

                       Copyright HoneyTracks                22

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The Game Life Cycle & Game Analytics: What metrics matter when?

  • 1. The Game Life-Cycle and Game Analytics: What metrics matter when? Casual Connect Hamburg 2012 Mark Gazecki (Chairman)
  • 2. Introduction HoneyTracks: Web-based game analytics solution Deep analytical capability For all types of games Real-time / near real-time Cohort analysis, funnels, Social games, browser-games, data-filtering client games, mobile games Custom metrics & funnels Easy-to-use graphical For everyone in the company interface Information at everyone’s finger- Avoiding data-graveyards tips: Game design, product mgmt, (happens if people can’t use it) marketing, management, … Copyright HoneyTracks 2
  • 3. Game Life-Cycle & Metrics The 5 most important metrics The never-ending quest for the most important 5 metrics … Copyright HoneyTracks 3
  • 4. Game Life-Cycle & Metrics The 5 most important metrics The never-ending quest for the most important 5 metrics … . . . … is indeed a never-ending quest Copyright HoneyTracks 4
  • 5. Game Life-Cycle & Metrics The 5 most important metrics … there is no such thing as the universal 5 most important metrics Games are unique & different Games have a life-cycle To generate actionable insight differences in each What is important changes over the life-time of a game must be considered. This has an implication game. This must be reflected in the metrics / KPIs for the metrics you want to monitor. Copyright HoneyTracks 5
  • 6. Game Life-Cycle & Metrics Moore‘s lifecycle adoption model applied to games Prototypical Technology Product Lifecycle (taken from “Crossing the Chasm”) Growth Maturity & Revenues •  Like any other technology-product, games have a product lifecycle (may be more or less pronounced for certain game-types and individual games) •  First focus is on growth then on managing maturity and maximizing revenues Copyright HoneyTracks 6
  • 7. Game Life-Cycle & Metrics Virality vs retention What would you rather have? Double the virality? Half the churn-rate? Copyright HoneyTracks 7
  • 8. Game Life-Cycle & Metrics Why retention comes first Number of active users (conceptual) 3000 Assumptions Viral game Ret. game Viral invites / 2500 user 2.5 1.25 Viral game 2000 Churn-rate 80% 40% 1500 1000 Game with better retention 500 0 Month Month Month Month Month Month Month Month Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 •  Game with better retention has higher number of average monthly users •  No retention – no sustainable growth – no hit •  … and since users tend to monetize better as they progress in the game, higher retention lays the basis for strong monetization Copyright HoneyTracks 8
  • 9. Game Life-Cycle & Metrics Game life-cycle KPI framework Game Life-Cycle (time / age of game) User acquisition Retention Monetization Bring initial users Virality into the game (x-promotion, “limited launch”) Engagement Acquisition & Monetization metrics virality metrics metrics •  Start out by making sure that “retention” is good enough with an initial flow of users, i.e. not all users you acquire churn out immediately •  Then move onto optimizing “user acquisistion”, “virality”, and “monetization •  … but of course this is an additive view!!! Copyright HoneyTracks 9
  • 10. Game Life-Cycle & Metrics Retention metrics: What to start with Retention / Engagement Metrics 1-7 day retention •  Optimize tutorial (to get users effectively into the Tutorial steps funnel game) •  A/B-test user funnels Drop-off rates (by level) •  Optimize user drop-off events (make it less difficult, more “funner”, …) Visits / DAU •  Give user more / less stuff to do / more energy (-> session length. engagement) •  Track feature-usages (also for mid- / end-game) Session times •  A/B-test game mechanics (esp. mid- / end-game) Churn-rate (monthly) 1 / monthly churn-rate = Player lifetime (in months) Copyright HoneyTracks 10
  • 11. Game Life-Cycle & Metrics Acquisition metrics: What to start with Acquisition Metrics Conversion rates (CTR) User acquisition cost (CPC, CPI / PAC) •  Test different marketing channels Metrics by marketing channel / ad •  A/B-test different creatives (cohort analysis) •  A/B-test different targeting (demographics, geographies) Metrics by demographics (cohort analysis) •  Monitor PLTV > PAC (for channel cohorts, demographies etc) Metrics by geography (cohort analysis) Metrics by user source (e.g. player life- time value) (ads, viral, x-promotion) Start tracking monetization metrics by user cohorts early on (channels, demography, …) Copyright HoneyTracks 11
  • 12. Game Life-Cycle & Metrics Example: Marketing channels Screenshot: Channel profitability ... shows that Channel 1 has 50% of Channel 32 revenues despite having 2.5x in DAU Segmenting users by marketing channel ... 1 32 Marketing Channel 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 32 33 Marketing Channel Comparing payouts to „revenues“ shows that Channel 1 has more „lost revenue“, i.e. issues in the We could improve the game: payment process •  Focus on user aquisition from ch32 •  Double check payment type (SMS) and charge backs in ch1 •  Switch off certain payment methods at special times 1 Marketing Channel 32 Copyright HoneyTracks 12
  • 13. Game Life-Cycle & Metrics Virality metrics: What to start with Virality Metrics k-factor Number of sent invites / DAU •  A/B-test content for viral message (how should buttons look, images, etc) Acceptance rate (by type of invite) •  A/B-test different viral triggers (in the game) •  A/B-test different acceptance mechanisms % of virally acquired users (last 30 days cohort) Number of viral users by viral source Copyright HoneyTracks 13
  • 14. Game Life-Cycle & Metrics Monetization metrics: What to start with Monetization Metrics ARPU ARPPU •  A/B-test alternatives to improve first-time buyer conversion (e.g. specials, variants of that particular virtual good) Payment conversion rate •  Optimize user-flow towards first purchase trigger (-> get more users there) Avg. transaction value •  A/B-test different virtual goods & packages •  Optimize payment process (conversion steps) First purchase trigger •  A/B-test pricing Paying user cohort (by marketing channel, by geography Player life-time value (PLTV) Copyright HoneyTracks 14
  • 15. Custom Metrics Game life-cycle KPI framework: Introducing custom-metrics User acquisition Retention Monetization Virality Standard metrics Custom metrics •  Standard metrics are great for detecting issues on a high level •  To derive actionable insight need to drill deeper and look at custom metrics Copyright HoneyTracks 15
  • 16. Custom Metrics Drill-down capability & custom metrics to derive actionable insight Observe slight decrease “Peeling in aggregate ARPU the onion” in month of February Payment conversion rate ARPPU is decreasing remains constant Payment conversion Payment conversion for existing users stays for the user cohort acquired constant in January is very low Users acquired in January The pricing for a virtual Mix of users in January from marketing channel good, which typically was shifted towards countries “SuperDuperAds” have a the first virtual good with generally lower significantly lower purchased by users, was conversion rates conversion rate changed Copyright HoneyTracks 16
  • 17. Game Life-Cycle & Metrics Example: ARPU cohort analysis Screenshot: ARPU cohort analysis Aggregate ARPU is 2 Euro Monthly cohorts show ... and we see that that ARPU actually ARPU improved from becomes 4 Euro! April to May cohort •  Aggregate numbers don‘t tell the truth •  As a next step we would dig deeper into the May-cohort to understand why it generated better ARPU Copyright HoneyTracks 17
  • 18. Game Analytics Examples „Peel the onion“: Payment conversion (1) Screenshot: Revenue analysis by level Pretty effective at Majority of revenues monetizing advanced achieved in levels 20-30 users ... 0 10 20 30 40 50 0 10 20 30 40 ... but what about users in earlier levels? Can we push users into making purchases earlier? What are virtual goods that are useful at earlier levels? 0 10 20 30 40 50 Copyright HoneyTracks 18
  • 19. Game Analytics Examples „Peel the onion“: Payment conversion (2) At lower levels „food“ is being purchased relatively higher ... so this may be the virtual good, which converts users into „first time buyers“ ... even though „food“ doesn‘t play a major role in revenues We could improve the game •  Offering „food“ specials to users at lower levels •  Try lower prices for food to generate more first time buyers Copyright HoneyTracks 19
  • 20. Game Analytics Examples „Peel the onion“: Whales Analysis What is her profile Who are my whales? What, when and how much of each item works best for her? What payment We could improve the game does she use •  See what works best for whales and offer higher variety of same type •  Increase prices step-wise for new items and monitor closely •  Try out special offers for items that work Different colors indicate different feature/ for other whales item types - “mouse over “shows details •  Optimize payment options Copyright HoneyTracks 20
  • 21. Game Analytics & Game Life-Cycle How to approach it right Start with retention metrics. Then move to user acquisition-, virality-, and monetization metrics. Start with standard metrics. Then move to custom metrics to generate actionable insight „Peel the onion“ to derive actionable insight (cohort analysis etc) Understand it is an ongoing effort, which involves multiple functions / departments in your company (not all which are tech-people) Make sure you have the right game analytics system (it should support all of the above) Copyright HoneyTracks 21
  • 22. Contact information Want to see HoneyTracks in action? Check out: www.honeytracks.com @HoneyTracks Mark Gazecki mg@honeytracks.com Copyright HoneyTracks 22