The document summarizes an end-of-year briefing for the Powering Sydney's Future project. Greg Garvin and Stephen Clark presented on the project's progress in its first year. Garvin discussed stakeholder engagement efforts while Clark provided an update on network planning, including adopting a more flexible approach given the challenges of demand forecasting. Next steps include developing responsive network options, growing demand management programs, and continuing engagement and collaboration.
NAP Expo - Delivering effective and adequate adaptation.pptx
Powering Sydney's Future - end of year briefing
1. 1 | The role of networks in a changing market dynamic September 2014
Powering Sydney’s Future
Greg Garvin and Stephen Clark December 2014
2. 2 | Powering Sydney’s Future End of Year Briefing December 2014
End of year project briefing
Greg Garvin – Strategy and Stakeholder Engagement, General Manager
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Recap on the project
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Early engagement
•
Summary of what we have learned
Stephen Clark – Network Planning and Performance, Executive General Manager
•
Project planning update
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Next steps
3. 3 | Powering Sydney’s Future End of Year Project Briefing December 2014
Greg Garvin
Strategy and Stakeholder Engagement,
General Manager
4. 4 | Powering Sydney’s Future End of Year Briefing December 2014
Project overview
5. 5 | Powering Sydney’s Future End of Year Briefing December 2014
Redefining how we engage
6. 6 | Powering Sydney’s Future End of Year Briefing December 2014
Early engagement
7. 7 | Powering Sydney’s Future End of Year Briefing December 2014
Project initiatives
8. 8 | Powering Sydney’s Future End of Year Briefing December 2014
Manage demand
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Prioritise clean green solutions
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Continue to advocate for non-network initiatives
9. 9 | Powering Sydney’s Future End of Year Briefing December 2014
Innovate
Drive innovation
Promote smarter pricing
10. 10 | Powering Sydney’s Future End of Year Briefing December 2014
Engage
Continue to engage and collaborate
Put planning into action
11. 11 | Powering Sydney’s Future End of Year Briefing December 2014
Responding to feedback
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Website information
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Initiative workshops
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End of year briefing
>
Involvement from regulatory bodies and government
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Advocacy and regulatory reform
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Enhanced project awareness and collaboration
12. 12 | Powering Sydney’s Future End of Year Project Briefing December 2014
Stephen Clark
Network Planning and Performance,
Executive General Manager
13. 13 | Powering Sydney’s Future End of Year Briefing December 2014
Traditional approach to planning the network
Construction lead time
Upgraded capacity
Projected peak demand
Available capacity
When new capacity is expected to be needed
MW
Years
14. 14 | Powering Sydney’s Future End of Year Briefing December 2014
Demand forecasts can be wrong
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
Summer Maximum Demand (MW)
Actual
2002 Forecast
2003 Forecast
2004 Forecast
2005 Forecast
2006 Forecast
2007 Forecast
2008 Forecast
2009 Forecast
2010 Forecast
2011 Forecast
2012 Forecast
1997
2023
15. 15 | Powering Sydney’s Future End of Year Briefing December 2014
Others are worse
Treasury nominal GDP growth forecasts -2-101234567891011-2-101234567891011Per centPer centJune 2012 published outcomeForecast evolution Budget forecast
16. 16 | Powering Sydney’s Future End of Year Briefing December 2014
Others are worse
RBA forecasts with confidence intervals
17. 17 | Powering Sydney’s Future End of Year Briefing December 2014
Introducing a demand range
Construction lead time
Upgraded capacity
Projected peak demand
Available capacity
When new capacity is expected to be needed
Even if demand growth is slower, new
capacity will be needed at some point
MW
Years
18. 18 | Powering Sydney’s Future End of Year Briefing December 2014
An adaptive planning approach
19. 19 | Powering Sydney’s Future End of Year Briefing December 2014
New forecast for inner Sydney
20. 20 | Powering Sydney’s Future End of Year Briefing December 2014
Revenue Proposal
Date
Milestone
November 2014
Draft determination published
January 2015
TransGrid reply to AER
6 February 2015
Submissions close
April 2015
AER final determination
Pre-emptive network support
Demand management innovation fund
Land acquisition
21. 21 | Powering Sydney’s Future End of Year Briefing December 2014
Next Steps
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Develop responsive network options
>
Grow demand management
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Advocate for the refinement of reliability standards
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Continue to engage and collaborate
2015
2019
2023
Project planning
Demand management
Network solution
Ongoing monitoring of asset conditions and load growth
September 2015 – New forecast data
2016 – Preparation for network solution
22. 22 | Powering Sydney’s Future End of Year Briefing December 2014
Questions
23. 23 | Powering Sydney’s Future End of Year Project Briefing December 2014
