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Nike
A Financial Evaluation
June 30, 2016
Cara Clifford, Tony Goodman
Tyler Hough, Andrew LaLonde
Company Profile
Nike began as Blue Ribbon Sports
in 1967.
Primarily designs, develops,
markets and sells athletic
footwear, apparel, equipment and
services.
Nike’s brand includes:
- Jordan Brand
- Hurley
- Converse
Using information from 2015 financial reports.
Global Impact
Largest seller of athletic sportswear in the world.
Online sales presence via Nike.com and Converse.com
US STORES
339
INT’l STORES
592
Using information from 2015 financial reports.
Key Competitors
Key Financial
Ratios
A Look Into How Nike’s Uses Capital
MVA (2015)
71.3B
EVA (2015)
2.28B
Return on Invested Capital
2013 2014 2015
17.6% 19.1% 21.3%
Using information from 2015 financial reports.
Key Financial Ratios (cont’d)
Nike Under Armour Lululemon
Revenue Growth 10.1% 28.5% 14.7%
Debt to Capital Ratio (total) 9.0% 28.6% 0%
Return on Equity 26% 13.9% 25.9%
Return on Assets 15.2% 8.1% 20.2%
Using information from 2015 financial reports.
Key Financial Ratios (cont’d)
Efficiency Ratios
Nike Under Armour Lululemon
Days of Inventory Outstanding 96 days 139 days 99 days
DSO 40 days 40 days 2.3 days
DPO 47 days 35 days 3.6 days
Cash Conversion Cycle 89 days 144 days 97.3 days
Using information from 2015 financial reports.
Projections
INCOME STATEMENT*
Revenues 33,279
Cost of Sales 17,981
Total Selling and Admin Expense 10,758
EBIT 4,540
Interest Expense (net) 30
Taxes 1,001
Net Income 3,509
*In millions.
Projections
*In millions.
ASSETS
Cash 3,852
Short-term Investments 2,072
Receivables 3,651
Inventory 4,716
Prepaid Expenses and Other Current Assets 2,140
Current Assets 16,431
Property 3,368
Identifiable Intangible Assets 280
Deferred Income Taxes and Other Assets 2,201
Total Assets 22,280
LIABILITIES & EQUITY
Notes Payable 325
Accounts Payable 2,317
Accrued Expenses 4,296
Long Term Debt-Current 142
Current Liabilities 7,080
Long Term Debt 937
Deferred Income Taxes and Other Liabilities 1,480
Total Liabilities 2,417
Common Stock 6,773
Retained Earnings 6,010
Owner's Equity 12,783
Total Liabilities & Equity 22,280
Projections
EFN = Change in Notes Payable = $251 M
ROIC for projections = NOPAT/Invested Capital = 22.5%
Financing
Sources of Funds
Using information from 2015 financial reports.
2012 2013 2014 2015
Cash, cash equivalents, short-term investments X X X
Asset from discontinued operations X
Non-interest bearing liabilities X X
Long-term debt X
Equity X X X X
Capital Structure & Costs
Beta Comparison
Market Rate 1
Nike 0.9
Under Armour 1.2
Lululemon 1.1
Using information from 2015 financial reports.
Capital Structure & Costs
Equity Valuation
CAPM
Cost of Equity
Nike 6.9%
Under Armour 8.7%
Lululemon 8.1%
Using information from 2015 financial reports and cost of equity calculations are approximate.
Capital Structure & Costs
Capital Structure
Weighted Average Cost of Capital Calculation
WACC 6.5%
Risk-free rate 1.47%
Default Premium 0.78%
Cost of Equity 6.9%
Using information from 2015 financial reports. Risk-free rate is based on US 10-year treasury bonds
and Nike default premium is based on 2.25% rate for 10-year Nike bonds.
2013 2014 2015
Debt 11.1% 11.3% 9%
Equity 88.9% 88.7% 91%
Dividend Policy
Overview
Nike’s dividends have increased each year for the past 14
years. In contrast, Under Armour and Lululemon have not
paid dividends.
Dividend Policy
Dividend Trends
Using information from 2015 financial reports and *stock repurchases as of 9/2012.
Dividend Policy
Payout Ratios and Repurchases
Using information from 2015 financial reports and *stock repurchases as of 9/2012.
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Total
Ratio 26.0% 27.8% 28.4% 29.7% 27.0%
Dividends Paid 555M 619M 703M 799M 899M 3.575B
Stock
Repurchases*
1859M 1814M 1674M 2628M 2534M 10.509B
Dividend Policy
Repurchases & Dividends Compared
NIKE pays at regular intervals to its shareholders out of its after tax profits.
Shareholders pay taxes on distributed dividends
NIKE repurchased its shares from the marketplace, reducing the number of
share outstanding and increasing its EPS and ROE, which are measures of
profitability.
The goal is to increase the share price over time.
Shareholders will receive a return and taxation today plus an uncertain
return and tax sometime in the future.
We can conclude that Nike values shareholder returns.
Stock Value
Comparison Before & After Stock Split
Before After
$77.6B $77.6B
857M 1.7B
$90.60 $45.67
$101.67* $53.09^
Value of Equity
Number of Shares
Value Per Share
Closing Price
Using information from 2015 financial reports. *As of 5/31/15. ^As of 6/28/16.
Valuation Comparison
Value Line Analyst
“This neutrally ranked stock is expensive. Long term investors should wait for
shares to pull back before committing their capital.”
Fidelity
“Nike suffers multiple target cuts, but analysts remain bullish.”
Citigroup
“Rates Nike a buy, but lowered its target price from $61 to $75.”
Jeffries
Although there has been a slowdown in the basketball business, “the strength of
the new KD and Kyrie shoes and going health of Jordan, ‘gives’ us more
confidence in the category.”
Looking Forward
Challenges
Inventories
Inventories have risen. consumers are not spending as much on apparel
and stores that sell Nike merchandise faltering, i.e., Sports Authority’s
bankruptcy and Macy’s struggle with driving traffic to its stores.
Competition
Women’s Leisure is getting more crowded. LULU
Curry (UA) beating LeBron (NKE) off the court in shoe war.
Looking Forward
Opportunities
Brand Recognition
Recommendations from Morningstar, Inc
Endorsements & Winning Athletes
Sources
Nike Annual Reports 2011-2015; 2016 Quarter 4 Financial Statements
Nike Website
http://investors.nike.com/investors/news-events-and-reports/investor-news/investor-news-details/2015/NIKE-Inc-Announces-New-12-
Billion-Share-Repurchase-Program-14-Percent-Increase-in-Quarterly-Dividend-and-Two-for-One-Stock-Split/default.aspx
Fidelity
Valueline
Morningstar
Yahoo Finance
Sources (cont’d)
Business Insider
http://www.businessinsider.com/nike-shares-fall-on-earnings
New York Times
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/18/sports/basketball/under-armour-shoes-nike-stephen-curry-lebron-james.html
Wall Street Journal
http://www.wsj.com/articles/nikes-run-facing-an-uphill-climb-1466809364
JUST DO IT

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Nike Financial Analysis

  • 1. Nike A Financial Evaluation June 30, 2016 Cara Clifford, Tony Goodman Tyler Hough, Andrew LaLonde
  • 2. Company Profile Nike began as Blue Ribbon Sports in 1967. Primarily designs, develops, markets and sells athletic footwear, apparel, equipment and services. Nike’s brand includes: - Jordan Brand - Hurley - Converse Using information from 2015 financial reports.
  • 3. Global Impact Largest seller of athletic sportswear in the world. Online sales presence via Nike.com and Converse.com US STORES 339 INT’l STORES 592 Using information from 2015 financial reports.
  • 5. Key Financial Ratios A Look Into How Nike’s Uses Capital MVA (2015) 71.3B EVA (2015) 2.28B Return on Invested Capital 2013 2014 2015 17.6% 19.1% 21.3% Using information from 2015 financial reports.
  • 6. Key Financial Ratios (cont’d) Nike Under Armour Lululemon Revenue Growth 10.1% 28.5% 14.7% Debt to Capital Ratio (total) 9.0% 28.6% 0% Return on Equity 26% 13.9% 25.9% Return on Assets 15.2% 8.1% 20.2% Using information from 2015 financial reports.
  • 7. Key Financial Ratios (cont’d) Efficiency Ratios Nike Under Armour Lululemon Days of Inventory Outstanding 96 days 139 days 99 days DSO 40 days 40 days 2.3 days DPO 47 days 35 days 3.6 days Cash Conversion Cycle 89 days 144 days 97.3 days Using information from 2015 financial reports.
  • 8. Projections INCOME STATEMENT* Revenues 33,279 Cost of Sales 17,981 Total Selling and Admin Expense 10,758 EBIT 4,540 Interest Expense (net) 30 Taxes 1,001 Net Income 3,509 *In millions.
  • 9. Projections *In millions. ASSETS Cash 3,852 Short-term Investments 2,072 Receivables 3,651 Inventory 4,716 Prepaid Expenses and Other Current Assets 2,140 Current Assets 16,431 Property 3,368 Identifiable Intangible Assets 280 Deferred Income Taxes and Other Assets 2,201 Total Assets 22,280 LIABILITIES & EQUITY Notes Payable 325 Accounts Payable 2,317 Accrued Expenses 4,296 Long Term Debt-Current 142 Current Liabilities 7,080 Long Term Debt 937 Deferred Income Taxes and Other Liabilities 1,480 Total Liabilities 2,417 Common Stock 6,773 Retained Earnings 6,010 Owner's Equity 12,783 Total Liabilities & Equity 22,280
  • 10. Projections EFN = Change in Notes Payable = $251 M ROIC for projections = NOPAT/Invested Capital = 22.5%
  • 11. Financing Sources of Funds Using information from 2015 financial reports. 2012 2013 2014 2015 Cash, cash equivalents, short-term investments X X X Asset from discontinued operations X Non-interest bearing liabilities X X Long-term debt X Equity X X X X
  • 12. Capital Structure & Costs Beta Comparison Market Rate 1 Nike 0.9 Under Armour 1.2 Lululemon 1.1 Using information from 2015 financial reports.
  • 13. Capital Structure & Costs Equity Valuation CAPM Cost of Equity Nike 6.9% Under Armour 8.7% Lululemon 8.1% Using information from 2015 financial reports and cost of equity calculations are approximate.
  • 14. Capital Structure & Costs Capital Structure Weighted Average Cost of Capital Calculation WACC 6.5% Risk-free rate 1.47% Default Premium 0.78% Cost of Equity 6.9% Using information from 2015 financial reports. Risk-free rate is based on US 10-year treasury bonds and Nike default premium is based on 2.25% rate for 10-year Nike bonds. 2013 2014 2015 Debt 11.1% 11.3% 9% Equity 88.9% 88.7% 91%
  • 15. Dividend Policy Overview Nike’s dividends have increased each year for the past 14 years. In contrast, Under Armour and Lululemon have not paid dividends.
  • 16. Dividend Policy Dividend Trends Using information from 2015 financial reports and *stock repurchases as of 9/2012.
  • 17. Dividend Policy Payout Ratios and Repurchases Using information from 2015 financial reports and *stock repurchases as of 9/2012. 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Total Ratio 26.0% 27.8% 28.4% 29.7% 27.0% Dividends Paid 555M 619M 703M 799M 899M 3.575B Stock Repurchases* 1859M 1814M 1674M 2628M 2534M 10.509B
  • 18. Dividend Policy Repurchases & Dividends Compared NIKE pays at regular intervals to its shareholders out of its after tax profits. Shareholders pay taxes on distributed dividends NIKE repurchased its shares from the marketplace, reducing the number of share outstanding and increasing its EPS and ROE, which are measures of profitability. The goal is to increase the share price over time. Shareholders will receive a return and taxation today plus an uncertain return and tax sometime in the future. We can conclude that Nike values shareholder returns.
  • 19. Stock Value Comparison Before & After Stock Split Before After $77.6B $77.6B 857M 1.7B $90.60 $45.67 $101.67* $53.09^ Value of Equity Number of Shares Value Per Share Closing Price Using information from 2015 financial reports. *As of 5/31/15. ^As of 6/28/16.
  • 20. Valuation Comparison Value Line Analyst “This neutrally ranked stock is expensive. Long term investors should wait for shares to pull back before committing their capital.” Fidelity “Nike suffers multiple target cuts, but analysts remain bullish.” Citigroup “Rates Nike a buy, but lowered its target price from $61 to $75.” Jeffries Although there has been a slowdown in the basketball business, “the strength of the new KD and Kyrie shoes and going health of Jordan, ‘gives’ us more confidence in the category.”
  • 21. Looking Forward Challenges Inventories Inventories have risen. consumers are not spending as much on apparel and stores that sell Nike merchandise faltering, i.e., Sports Authority’s bankruptcy and Macy’s struggle with driving traffic to its stores. Competition Women’s Leisure is getting more crowded. LULU Curry (UA) beating LeBron (NKE) off the court in shoe war.
  • 22. Looking Forward Opportunities Brand Recognition Recommendations from Morningstar, Inc Endorsements & Winning Athletes
  • 23. Sources Nike Annual Reports 2011-2015; 2016 Quarter 4 Financial Statements Nike Website http://investors.nike.com/investors/news-events-and-reports/investor-news/investor-news-details/2015/NIKE-Inc-Announces-New-12- Billion-Share-Repurchase-Program-14-Percent-Increase-in-Quarterly-Dividend-and-Two-for-One-Stock-Split/default.aspx Fidelity Valueline Morningstar Yahoo Finance
  • 24. Sources (cont’d) Business Insider http://www.businessinsider.com/nike-shares-fall-on-earnings New York Times http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/18/sports/basketball/under-armour-shoes-nike-stephen-curry-lebron-james.html Wall Street Journal http://www.wsj.com/articles/nikes-run-facing-an-uphill-climb-1466809364