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"Самочувствие потребителя" и "Потребительский индекс Иванова"

Выступление аналитика Сбербанка CIB Михаила Красноперова на медиа-форуме Ассоциации компаний розничной торговли. Форум посвящен состоянию, тенденциям и перспективам российского ритейла. Организационный партнер форума — Х5 Retail Group.

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"Самочувствие потребителя" и "Потребительский индекс Иванова"

  1. 1. 1March 2017 INVESTMENT RESEARCH Russian Food Retail Mikhail Krasnoperov March 2017 INVESTMENT RESEARCH
  2. 2. 2March 2017 INVESTMENT RESEARCH Macro downturn depressed consumption… The economy is weak, and the crisis has mostly affected households (unlike in 2009, which was an “industrial” crisis). Households may tolerate 2% real incomes decline, but 9% decline in 2015 and 6% in 2016 triggered changes. Source: Cint, Sberbank CIB Investment Research Ivanovs’ main concerns ‘* - for 2016 we provide real disposable income Source: State Statistics Service, Sberbank CIB Investment Research Real wage growth Source: Cint, Sberbank CIB Investment Research Ivanov consumer confidence index 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Mar’13 May’13 Jul’13 Sep’13 Nov’13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 20% 37% 49% 51% 53% 59% 19% 18% 60% 52% 57% 57% 30% 17% 55% 56% 64% 54% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% USD/RUB rate Economic growth Povety Unemployment Inflation Corruption 4Q15 3Q16 4Q16 In 4Q16 concernsabout economicgrowth sharplyincreased12% 8% 4% 0% 4% 8% 12% 2010 2012 2014 2016* 2018E 2020E Real wages Critical threshold Real wages declined 9% in 2015 and then by 6% in 2016 i.e. dip well below the critical threshold of 2%
  3. 3. 3March 2017 INVESTMENT RESEARCH …shrank middle class Middle class shrank from 61% in 3Q14 to 51% now=> 14m migrated to low income class Salary threshold to be considered in the middle class rose by 18% pa to R37k over 2015-2016 (vs. actual increase 10%) Negative for discretionary spending Migration is over Source: State Statistics Service, Sberbank CIB Investment Research Average savings and savings ratio per economic class Source: Cint, Sberbank CIB Investment Research Ivanovs’ expenditures structure Source: State Statistics Service, Sberbank CIB Investment Research Middle class evolution 60,732 94,8314.4% 9.3% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 0 25,000 50,000 75,000 100,000 125,000 150,000 Low class Middle class Savings, RUB per family member Savings ratio 42.2% 35.4% 9.7% 10.7% 18.6% 14.1% 3.7% 6.6% 5.6% 6.6% 8.9% 7.6% 6% 7% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% Below middle class Middle class Food Clothing Utilities Vacations Household goods Interest payments Healthcare
  4. 4. 4March 2017 INVESTMENT RESEARCH Consumers cutting back on discretionary spending.. Source: Cint, Sberbank CIB Investment Research Household spending outlook across certain expenditures in the next 12m Changes in the Ivanovs’ spending structure reflect falling real incomes and generally lower consumption. Ivanovs have increased spending on utilities to 15.9% of their incomes, a record high since the beginning of our survey. Food expenses have diminished from 37.0% to 36.7%, while spending on clothing and vacations have shrunk. Outlook for discretionary spending is negative, but improving. On a net basis, now only 18% of respondents plan to cut spending on clothing purchases, compared with 31% in 1Q16. With respect to electronics, the percentage of those planning to cut spending fell from 48% in 1Q16 to 34% in 4Q16. Source: Cint, Sberbank CIB Investment Research Ivanovs’ spending breakdown, share of income 37.0% 36.7% 9.8% 9.4% 15.7% 15.9% 5.2% 4.7% 5.9% 6.2% 6.6% 7.4% 6% 7% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 4Q15 4Q16 Food Clothing Utilities Vacations Household goods Interest payments Health care 60% 40% 20% 0% 20% 40% 60% Utilities Food Health Interest payments Clothing Vacation Electronics andhousehold appliances Eatingout Actual spending in last 12m Spending outlook for next 12m The Ivanovs plan to cut back on everything but utilities this year. Food expenses should be mostly flat y o y.
  5. 5. 5March 2017 INVESTMENT RESEARCH Food was resilient in 2015, but declined in 2016 Nominal food was growing at 13% in 1Q15 (vs. 6% wage growth) It saw savings depletion: share of respondents with no savings increased from 40% in 2014 to 42% in 2016. Average saving amount per capita declined from R50,300 to R47,400 Now food retail lags behind wages (1% vs. 8% in nominal terms) Source: Cint, Sberbank CIB Investment Research Nominal wage, food retail and LFL growth, y-o-y 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17E 2Q17E 3Q17E 4Q17E Wage growth LFL sales growth Food retail growth The biggest divergence between wage growth and food retail growth came in 1Q15, but the situation turnedaround now. Source: Sberbank CIB Investment Research Percentage of Ivanovs with no savings Source: Sberbank CIB Investment Research Average savings per family member 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 Low income Middle income High income The Ivanovs' savings dropped 22.3 25.8%y o y in 1Q15. 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16
  6. 6. 6March 2017 INVESTMENT RESEARCH Spending adjustment is over.. Food expenditure were stable at 33% of wage over 2011-2013 food, increased to 33.9% in 2014 and then 34.6% in 2015 (peaking at 37%). It added 4.0 pp to retail turnover growth in last two years. It is now at historic average => future sector growth and LFLs to track wages, acceleration by 3 pp Source: Cint, Sberbank CIB Investment Research Food expenditure as %% of wage 25% 30% 35% 40% Jan Mar May Jul Sept Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sept Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sept Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sept Nov 2013 2014 2015 2016 Historic seasonality (2010 2012) Actual Consumerswere overspendingon food over 2014 2015... ...now are underspanding
  7. 7. 7March 2017 INVESTMENT RESEARCH …macro is stabilizing The Ivanov Consumer Confidence Index bottomed out at -24% in 4Q15, rose to -16% in 4Q16. Public sector wages to grow 4.0%, while private sector should climb 4.5%, for an average 4.3% in 2017. Pensions: one-off payment in Jan 17 and indexation in Feb 17. Nominal food to grow by 3.9% vs. food inflation of 4.9%, real growth should be positive only in 4Q17. Source: State Statistics Service, Sberbank CIB Investment Research Nominal wage growth in rubles 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E Public Private Average Wage growth has been driven by the public sector in recent years, which turned around in 2015. We expect public sector will be lagging going forward. Source: State Statistics Service, Sberbank CIB Investment Research Food retail growth breakdown, y-o-y Source: Cint, Sberbank CIB Investment Research Ivanov consumer confidence index 10% 5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 2014 2015 2016 Jan’17 Feb’17 Mar’17 Apr’17 May’17 Jun’17 Jul’17 Aug’17 Sep’17 Oct’17 Nov’17 Dec’17 2018E 2019E Real growth Inflation Nominal Food retail Foodretail will grow 3.9% in nominal terms; 4.4% food inflation underpins the 0.5% decline in real terms 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Mar’13 May’13 Jul’13 Sep’13 Nov’13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16
  8. 8. 8March 2017 INVESTMENT RESEARCH Trading down does not intensify The share of Ivanovs that save on staples climbed to 71%, while price sensitivity has retreated to 75%. There is still a wide gap between the price and quality factors. Switching to a cheaper store is the most popular way to economize. Source: Cint, Sberbank CIB Investment Research Have you been trying to buy cheaper staple products in the past two to three months? Source: Cint, Sberbank CIB Investment Research Factors behind store selection Source: Cint, Sberbank CIB Investment Research How the Ivanovs try to save on food 55% 54% 54% 60% 66% 63% 69% 70% 70% 69% 68% 71% 42% 43% 43% 37% 32% 34% 29% 28% 28% 29% 30% 28% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 Yes No 59% 63% 28% 34% 60% 23% 57% 63% 26% 34% 55% 24% 55% 64% 27% 33% 56% 25% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Usepromo offersmore often Buyfoodin cheaperstores withlowerprices Buymore privatelabel products Visitmore storestofind bargains Buyless expensivefood anddelicacies Buyless foodin general 4Q15 3Q16 4Q16 50% 60% 70% 80% 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 Product quality Prices The share of price sensitive customers decrease slightly, while importance of product quality rise. Nevertheless indexes are still far from 1H14 values.
  9. 9. 9March 2017 INVESTMENT RESEARCH Have you started to grow more vegetables in your backyard because of the crisis? Source: Cint, Sberbank CIB Investment Research Is it right that this year's harvest from the garden was better than the previous year? Source: Companies, State Statistics Service, Sberbank CIB Investment Research Dachas helped Ivanovs during crisis Another one Source: Sberbank CIB Investment Research Vendor selling fruit and vegetables in Krasnodar Source: Sberbank CIB Investment Research 51% 32% 11% 6% We have no backyard We have not changed the size of our garden We planted more vegetables in our backyard last year We planted more vegetables in our backyard last year and plan to plant even more this year 30% 14% 27% 24% 5% The harvest was the same as in preivous year. The harvest was worse, so we will consume more food from the store and less from the garden. The harvest was good, so we will consume less food from the store and more from the garden. The harvest was good, but it will not affect on our spendings at the stores. The harvest was worse then in previous year, but it will not affect on our spendings at the stores.
  10. 10. 10March 2017 INVESTMENT RESEARCH Consumer is moving away from big boxes… Source: Cint, Sberbank CIB Investment Research Do you visit hypermarkets less often or spend a smaller share of your food budget there? 60% think shopping at hypermarkets is expensive 55% of respondents reduce spending in hypermarkets. 33% think prices and assortment of core food items are similar at hypermarkets and smaller stores, while the former requires more shopping time. Source: Cint, Sberbank CIB Investment Research Why are you shopping less at hypermarkets? Source: Cint, Sberbank CIB Investment Research Do you think shopping in hypermarkets helps save on food? 40% 23% 37% Yes, hypermarkets offer a good option to save on food No, as prices are higher at hypermarkets No, because it leads to inintended purchases 38% 7% 37% 18% No, I have not changed the frequency of my visits to hypermarkets and spend the same share of my food budget there No, I visit hypermarkets more often and spend higher share of food budget there Yes, I visit hypermarkets more rarely and go to smaller format stores more often Yes, I spend less in hypermarkets and have increased spending in smaller format stores 21% 12% 10% 15% 20% 22% Prices are similar, but shopping at hypermarkets takes much more time The assortment at smaller stores is expanding; I can find all I need there I buy promo goods at convenience stores and use hypermarkets for the rest The number of convenience stores nearby grew, so I shop at hypermarkets less frequently I reduced purchases of goods that I used to buy at hypermarkets due to the crisis I visit hypermarkets less frequently to avoid unnecessary spending
  11. 11. 11March 2017 INVESTMENT RESEARCH …but the number of hypermarkets is growing Source: Cint, Sberbank CIB Investment Research Number of small food stores within walking distance Excluding the public five, around 3 mln m2 of selling space was added in 2015. The public five added 2 mln m2 (for 24% growth versus 19% in 2014). There are risks for large formats. The 162 hypermarkets added in 2015 may take longer to mature. We model 1.7 mln m2 of new space for non- public-five retail in 2016 (60% of all space introduced). Source: Sberbank CIB Investment Research, Companies, Infoline Hypermarkets selling space 0.8 1.0 1.1 0.6 0.8 0.90.2 0.3 0.3 2.6 2.1 1.9 0 1 2 3 4 5 Dec 2014 Dec 2015 Dec 2016 Magnit Pyaterochka Dixy Other Selling space introduction: top five keep taking market share from smaller players Source: Companies, Sberbank CIB Investment Research 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E Public five Modern retail (excl. top five) We expect 1.7 mln m2 of new space to be added this year retreating from the record 2 mln in 2015 4353 4800 5121 1491 1573 1520 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 Dec 2014 Dec 2015 Dec 2016 Magnit Lenta O'Key Karusel Auchan Other (Auchan and Metro) +18%
  12. 12. 12March 2017 INVESTMENT RESEARCH Source: Cint, Sberbank CIB Investment Research Source: Cint, Sberbank CIB Investment Research Food spending is becoming more concentrated Number of chains where typical Ivanov shops The average number of chains visited fell to 2.2 in 2016 from 2.9 in 1H15 and 2.4 in 2H15, suggesting shopping habits are normalizing. Number of weekly shopping trips declined to 2.9 in comparison with pre-crisis 3.2 in 2H14. Number of store visits per week 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 Magnit Pyaterochka Lenta O’Key Dixy Other The number of chains that customers visited stabilized at 2.2 2.3 versus 2.6 on average in 2015. 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.7 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 In 4Q16 people visited stores more rarely. The same number of visited chains led to decline of number of weekly visits per store.
  13. 13. 13March 2017 INVESTMENT RESEARCH Lower soft commodities prices should support margins Breakdown of food retail turnover by category Cumulative food inflation by category, 2013-2016 FAO Cereals Price Index vs oil price Source: State Statistics Service, Sberbank CIB Investment Research Domestic wheat price Russia, RUB/ton Source: Bloomberg, FAO, Sberbank CIB Investment Research 0 30 60 90 120 150 0 60 120 180 240 300 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08 ’09 ’10 ’11 ’12 ’13 ’14 ’15 ’16 FAO cereal price index Brent, $/bbl (rhs) 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 1Q16 3Q16 The ruble wheat price has returned to 2H12 1H13 levels and keeps falling 23% 7% 7% 4% 3% 2%2%7% 9% 6% 21% 9% Meat and meat products Dairy Bread Oil Cheese Sugar Eggs Other Fruits and vegetables Fish Alcohol Confectionary goods Grain is the main COGS component for 45% of food products sold in Russia 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Sugar Dairy Sunfloweroil Eggs Pasta Breadandpastries Meatand meatproducts These products have risen substantially in price, despite flat grain prices Source: FAO, Sberbank CIB Investment ResearchSource: Bloomberg, FAO, Sberbank CIB Investment Research
  14. 14. 14March 2017 INVESTMENT RESEARCH Retailers’ pricing: promos got routine in 2015-2016 Source: Companies Lenta offered eggs for R41 per ten .and Magnit for 58-50 Karusel for R44-99
  15. 15. 15March 2017 INVESTMENT RESEARCH Promo-addiction slightly eased in 4Q16 The share of respondents seeing aggressive promo in stores decreased from its peak level of 37% in 4Q15 to 33% in 4Q16. Share of respondents coming to store solely for promo increased from 31% in 3Q16 to 33% now, but less then 37% a year ago. 76% will tolerate reduced promo. Source: Cint, Sberbank CIB Investment Research Retailers’ promo offering and demand Source: Cint, Sberbank CIB Investment Research Share of promo hunters among shoppers What do you do when you see less promo in your store Source: Companies, State Statistics Service, Sberbank CIB Investment Research 4% 34% 20% 24% 18% Buy at a higher price, not trying to find lower price Don't pay attention Turn to cheaper one, not trying to find shop with lower price on necessary goods Try to find shop with lower price on necessary goods, if hunt fails turn to cheaper one Try to find shop with lower price on necessary goods, if hunt fails purchase at a highr price 29% 29% 28% 24% 22% 27% 22% 28% 28% 25% 27% 23% 23% 24% 25% 26% 25% 21% 24% 23% 21% 15% 17% 19% 21% 23% 25% 27% 29% 31% Pyaterochka Dixy Magnit convenience Lenta O’Key Magnit hypermarket Auchan 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 Those who think that in grocery stores has become more offers goods for promotions in the last 3 months. Those who come to some grocery store with single goal to purchase promo goods
  16. 16. 16March 2017 INVESTMENT RESEARCH Retailers are able to do price DIvestments Massive price investments amid high food inflation in 1Q15 (shelf prices up 15% vs. official rate of above 20%). Part of those are reverted now, with price increase outpacing the rest of the market. Given massive price advantage provided earlier, their value proposition remains compelling. Source: Cint, Sberbank CIB Investment Research Ivanovs’ perception of food price growth across the chains Source: Cint, Sberbank CIB Investment Research Index of consumer perception of prices in food retail chains 2.2 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.7 3.1 2.8 2.8 3.2 3.3 2.4 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.8 3.1 2.9 3.0 3.3 3.4 2.4 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 0 1 2 3 4 Auchan Magnit hypermarket Lenta Magnit convenience Pyaterochka Other Dixy Metro Karusel O’Key Victoria Perekrestok Dec ’15 Sep ’16 Dec ’16 Among public players, Magnit is the most attractive, moved Lenta to second place. LowHigh 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 Official food inflation Rest of the market Average Pyaterochka, Dixy, Magnit convinence
  17. 17. 17March 2017 INVESTMENT RESEARCH 1,100 600 100 400 900 1,400 1,900 2,400 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E Net retail loans issued decreased y o y in 2015, for the first time since 2010 6% 8% 10% 12% 36% 38% 40% 42% 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 1Q16 3Q16 Food spending Savings (rhs) Potential upside from consumer deleveraging R850 bln retail loans were repaid in 2015 (equivalent to 3% of retail turnover), pulling money away from consumption. The share of incomes spent on debt servicing fell below 11% from 13.3% in 2014. R63 bln retail loans to be distributed in 2017, but only an extra R20 bln will be directed to food retail, as the savings ratio is increasing. This underpins our 4.0% nominal food retail growth forecast next year (0.4% decrease in real terms). Source: CBR, Sberbank CIB Investment Research Net increase in retail loans issued (excl. mortgages), R bln Ivanovs’ food spending and savings ratios, % of income Source: Cint, Sberbank CIB Investment Research Debt service and repayments ratio, % of income Source: CBR, Sberbank CIB Investment Research 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 1Q16E 3Q16E Interest payments Debt servicing (principal) The peak of debt servicing and repayments passed in 2014
  18. 18. 18March 2017 INVESTMENT RESEARCH Real disposable income, GDP and food retail turnover, y-o-y Source: State Statistics Service, Sberbank CIB Investment Research Long-term growth outlook: food retail to track GDP expansion Household consumption accounts for 57% of GDP, while retail represents 33%; these ratios are sticky. In line with real disposable income decline of 0.5 -1%, food retail should decline by no more than 1% as well as non-food in 2017. The following increase should correspond to 5.7% and 6.0% CAGRs, respectively. Macroeconomic forecasts, R bln Source: Companies, State Statistics Service, Sberbank CIB Investment Research 15% 10% 5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Food retail turnover GDP Real disposable income 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E CAGR 16 20E GDP Nomminal, RUB bln 55,800 61,811 71,055 79,200 83,233 85,881 90,370 94,925 99,709 104,734 5.1% Russian GDP, % real growth 4.3% 3.4% 1.3% 0.8% 2.8% 0.2% 0.6% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% Russian GDP, % nominal growth 24% 11% 15% 11% 5% 3% 5% 5% 5% 5% Households' economics Total wages, RUB bln 22,676 25,874 29,006 31,708 33,807 36,532 38,030 39,946 41,960 44,074 Households incomes, RUB bln 35,625 39,863 44,601 47,850 51,926 56,034 58,292 61,180 64,817 68,673 5.2% Retail loans issued, RUB bln 1,124 1,698 1,915 480 1,036 313 63 255 199 137 Savings, RUB bln 4,748 5,745 6,506 6,075 6,782 7,426 7,777 8,187 8,665 9,170 Household consumption, RUB bln 27,193 31,019 34,672 42,037 43,263 43,830 45,185 47,462 49,854 52,367 4.5% Household consumption as % of GDP 49% 50% 49% 53% 52% 51% 50% 50% 50% 50% Key expenditure items Food 9,099 9,961 11,143 12,381 13,408 13,710 14,242 14,948 15,836 16,779 5.2% Food retail nominal growth, % 14% 9% 12% 11% 8% 2.3% 3.9% 5% 6% 6% Food as % of household consumption 33% 32% 32% 29% 31% 31% 32% 31% 32% 32% Non food 9,983 11,398 12,433 13,855 14,422 14,877 15,499 16,348 17,405 18,531 5.6% Non Food retail nominal growth, % 18% 14% 9% 11% 4% 3% 4% 5% 6% 6% Non Food as % of household consumption 37% 37% 36% 33% 33% 34% 34% 34% 35% 35%
  19. 19. 19March 2017 INVESTMENT RESEARCH Senior Management Head of Sberbank CIB Oleg Ganeev Co-Head of Sberbank CIB Aleksandr Bazarov Head of Global Markets Department, Managing Director Maxim Safonov Chief Economist, Managing Director Evgeny Gavrilenkov Research Department +7 (495) 258 0511 IT Senior Analyst Julia Gordeyeva, CFA +7 (495) 933 9846 Senior Analyst Igor Vasilyev +7 (495) 933 9842 Assistant Analyst Ivan Belyaev, CFA +7 (495) 933 9853 Utilities Senior Analyst Igor Vasilyev +7 (495) 933 9842 Real Estate, Construction Senior Analyst Julia Gordeyeva, CFA +7 (495) 933 9846 Senior Analyst Igor Vasilyev +7 (495) 933 9842 Assistant Analyst Ivan Belyaev, CFA +7 (495) 933 9853 Transport, Industrials Senior Analyst Igor Vasilyev +7 (495) 933 9842 Senior Analyst Julia Gordeyeva, CFA +7 (495) 933 9846 Assistant Analyst Ivan Belyaev, CFA +7 (495) 933 9853 FICC Strategy Chief Strategist FX/IR Tom Levinson +7 (495) 933 9858 Strategist Quant FX/IR Iskander Lutsko +7 (495) 787 2346 Commodity Strategist Dmitriy Kolomytsyn, CFA +7 (495) 933 9849 Assistant Strategist FI Alexander Golinsky +7 (495) 258 0511 Fixed Income Credit Research Senior Credit Analyst Alexey Bulgakov +7 (495) 933 9866 Senior Credit Analyst Sergey Goncharov +7 (495) 933 9854 Assistant Analyst Nikolay Minko +7 (495) 933 9857 Head of Research Alexander Kudrin +7 (495) 933 9847 Strategy Chief Equity Strategist Andrey Kuznetsov +7 (495) 933 9868 Junior Equity Strategist Cole Akeson +7 (495) 933 9851 Economy Senior Economist Anton Stroutchenevski +7 (495) 933 9843 Economist Natalia Suseeva +7 (495) 258 0511 Economist Rodion Lomivorotov, CFA +7 (495) 258 0511 Economist Sergei Konygin +7 (495) 933 9848 Oil and Gas Senior Analyst Alex Fak +7 (495) 933 9829 Analyst Valery Nesterov +7 (495) 933 9832 Assistant Analyst Ilya Lyapustin +7 (495) 933 9840 Metals and Mining, Chemicals Senior Analyst Irina Lapshina +7 (495) 933 9852 Analyst Anna Antonova, CFA +7 (495) 787 2390 Assistant Analyst Alexey Kirichok +7 (495) 933 9850 Financials Senior Analyst Andrew Keeley +44 (20) 7936 0439 Analyst Andrey Pavlov-Rusinov +7 (495) 933 9817 Telecoms, Media and Internet Senior Analyst Svetlana Sukhanova +7 (495) 933 9835 Assistant Analyst Maria Sukhanova +7 (495) 933 9856 Consumer Senior Analyst Mikhail Krasnoperov +7 (495) 933 9838 Analyst Artur Galimov +7 (495) 933 9833
  20. 20. 20March 2017 INVESTMENT RESEARCH This Sberbank CIB Investment Research analytical review was prepared by CJSC "Sberbank CIB" and/or any of its affiliated persons (together referred to as "Sberbank CIB") and may be used as general information only. In particular, parts of this Sberbank CIB Investment Research review related to the Turkish market were prepared in Turkey with the participation of DENIZ YATIRIM MENKUL DEGERLER A. S., an affiliated company of CJSC "Sberbank CIB", under the supervision and in accordance with the internal policies of Sberbank CIB. This Sberbank CIB Investment Research review accurately reflects analysts' personal opinions about the company (companies) analyzed and its (their) securities. Analysts' compensation is not in any way, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations and opinions expressed in this review. The personal views of analysts may differ from one another. 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