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Brazil: an economic superpower Ivan Van de Cloot Chief Economist Itinera Institute
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],” “ To show, to defend and to build roads for policy reform towards sustained economic growth and social protection, for Belgium and its regions.
Summary ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Since 2003 some 20m Brazilians have emerged from poverty and joined the market economy . Source : The Economist, Lula’s Legacy, Sept 30th 2010
Social protection delivers lower poverty
Population increasingly urban Source : The Economist, Lula’s Legacy, Sept 30th 2010
Growth at the bottom Source : Centre for Social Policies, Rise of the New Middle Class
Analfabetism dropping Source : IBGE,  Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios 1992, 1995, 2001-2009
Life expectancy at birth, male Source : Worldbank
Summary ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Age pyramid which is much younger than Europe’s
Ageing in advanced economies took three times as long as it will in Brazil
Vital for democracy: middle class Source : Centre for Social Policies, Rise of the New Middle Class
Financial stability?  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Exchange rate appreciation  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Investment rate to be boosted by Plano Brasil Maior 2014 Source : World Bank
Reforms for Brazil and Belgium ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Potential to open Brazilian market more ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Net debt as % of GDP Source:  National sources, World Bank, OECD, IMF, UBS as at December 2010 Emerging countries= not over-indebted
A lot of reserves
And steep climbing reserves
Total reserves incl gold (mio USD) Source : Worldbank, 2011
Annual GDP growth Emerging countries suffered but recovered
Growth would be sustained in coming years
Summary ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Proven oil reserves Source : ANP  Agência Nacional do Petróleo, Gás Natural e Biocombustíveis  , Annual Report 2011
Oil as manna from heaven?
Real opportunities: but challenging to exploit Source : The Economist, Nov 5th 2011 ,[object Object]
Untapped reserves (grey areas)
Growing number of multinationals
Labour Force 15-64 y Source:  United Nations, as at December 2010 Favorable demographics
Source: IMF IFS, Central Bank Data, BIS, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research estimates. Note: Most data from end 2009 and also includes some estimates from BofA ML Global Res. Mortgage penetration as % GDP A lot of growth potential
Cars per 1000 people Job creation Source: Ministry of Labor, Brazil; data as of 19 January 2011. Morgan Stanley, Haver as of 28 October 2010 Source: Credit Suisse, Datastream, March 2010 A lot of potential for domestic consumption
Huge investments planned  (Programa de acelaracao do crescimento)
Private sector involvement
Potential output growth
The plant bottle 22.5% of the bottle’s PET is plant-  based, made from brazilian ethanol Coca Cola aims to sell by end 2011 more than 5 billion bottles in 20 countries
FEB- P.A. De Smedt SHARE OF G-7 AND E-7 (PPP)  IN THE GLOBAL GDP G7 countries  E7 countries
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Presentation Ivan Van de Cloot

Editor's Notes

  1. 29/04/2008