Presentation to Conference on Comparative Communication Research, Chinese University of Hong Kong, 7 February 2015.

1. Mobile Communication Today
and Tomorrow
William H. Dutton
Quello Professor of Media and Information Policy
Michigan State University
Presentation to Conference on Comparative Communication
Research, Chinese University of Hong Kong, 7 February 2015.

2. Acknowledgements: Co-Authors
Ginette Law, Darja Groselj, Frank Hangler, and
Gili Vidan
Oxford University Consulting
The Quello Center at MSU
CHENG Lin; ZHI Hui; LU Xiaobin; ZHAO Qiyong,
and WANG Bin
Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd.

3. Mobile Futures
Policy and
Regulatory
Trends
Social
Research
Technical-
Industry
Developments

4. Synthesis of Research
•Analysis of Global Survey Research
•Longitudinal Analysis of UK OxIS Data
•Qualitative Semi-Structured
Interviews
Field Research
Approach to this Global,
v Comparative, Study

5. What is Mobile Communication?
Not New
Pedestrian
Innovative
• The Titanic
• 1918 experiments
• Mobile Phone
• Texting
• Mobile Internet
• Cloud Computing
• Internet of Things &
Wearable

6. ‘… service enabled by a wide array of electronic
devices and networks across a range of locations’
• Feature Phone
• Smartphone
• Tablet, Reader, Laptop, Watch, …
Devices:
• Licensed Spectrum
• Unlicensed Spectrum, Bluetooth, Whitespace, WiFi,
Wired and Wireless, …
• Cloud computing – data warehouses
Network
Infrastructures
• On the Move
• Car, Home, Work, Conference, …Locations

7. Mobile
Device
LocationNetwork
Creating
Growing Array of
‘Mobile
Communication’
Technologies

8. Changing Ecology of Mobile
Increasingly
Converging
Technology
Increasingly
Diverse
Ecology

9. Use of Multiple ICTs by World Regions
Global Internet Values Survery, 2012, N=8,241

10. Mutually Transformative
Mobile Internet

11. Transforming the Internet
Search
Video
Mobility
•Always Available
Social Media
Big Data

12. Is Mobile Opening or Closing?
Opening
Multiple Devices
Specialized Uses
Closing
Vertically
Integrated Chain
(OS, Apps)
Preinstalled
Apps v Open
Search

13. Equalities?
Closing Divides
More
Individuals w
Phones
More with
Access to the
Internet
Creativity of
Users
Creating New
Divides
Mulitple
Devices
Multiple
Infrastructures

16. Mobile Broadband and PC Penetration (Source: Robert Kenny,
Communication Chambers, ITU Data)
Canada
Germany
Hungary
Japan
Slovenia
Switzerland
R² = 0.4435
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0
MobileBBsubsper100inhabitants,2012
PC Penetration, 2000 (% of HH)

18. Key Social Implications / Issues
Increasing Centrality of Mobile: What’s Essential?
Equality and Empowerment?
New Normal, or Tools-Symbols of Status & Identity
Social Contact and Interpersonal Communication
Privacy

19. Four Future Scenarios
The Seamlessly Bounded Ensemble (Ensemble)
The Unified Hub (Hub)
Connected Accoutrements (Accoutrements)
The Exposed Device-Free Realm (Device-Free)

20. Technology in the Hands of Society
• Dualities of Mobile: Together, Apart
• The Open Ended, Unpredictable Future of
Mobile Communication
• Responses to Emerging Issues, such as Privacy
– The Unpredictable Consumer-User-Producer
– Potential Shifts in Policy and Regulation
• Global Economic Shifts