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Tuesday, 11 December 2007
Topic Page Number
Overnight Summary 2
US Equities 3
US Bonds 3
Commodities 3
International Markets 4
US Economic Action 4
Australian Market Summary 5
Australian Equity Market Movers (Sector) 5
Australian Equity 5 Best / Worst Stocks 5
Australian Companies Ex-Dividend 6
Australian Equity Snapshots 7
Summary of Daily Research Reports 8
ST GEORGE BANK LIMITED
SHARE PRICE AS AT 10 December 2007
Last Sale $35.35
Changes -$0.24
Total Volume 1,965,461
Web Address: www.stgeorge.privatebank.com.au
www.banksa.privatebank.com.au
PRIVATEBANKPORTFOLIOSERVICES
DAILYBULLETIN
Daily Bulletin 11 December 2007
Overnight Markets
US stocks rallied in late afternoon trade, thanks to large cash
infusions into battered financial firms and stronger than expected
pending home sales. Investors are also eagerly awaiting
tomorrow’s expected interest rate cut.
Australian Market Summary
The Australian market opened the week with a decline in the early
morning trading. The All Ordinaries quickly bounced back but lost
traction in the early afternoon to loose further ground and end 28
points down.
Flashnotes
Macquarie Office Trust (MOF) - Offical opening of 2 Market
Street redevelopment
Goodman Group (GMG) - GMG announces $835M five year
debt facility
Macarthur Coal Ltd (MCC) - Enters into a trading halt
Macquarie Media Group (MMG) - MMG not to proceed with rural
radio station acquisition
Symbion Health Limited (SYB) - Primary snares 30% interest as
Healthscope increases stake to 11%
Fairfax Media (FXJ) - To retain radio stations acquired in merger
with Rural Press
Healthscope (HSP) - Increases interest in SYB to 11%, as
Primary moves to 30%
Pacific Brands (PBG) - Sells NZ Foams, Flooring and Bedding
businesses
Commander Communications (CDR) - New commander takes
the helm
Dyno Nobel (DXL) - Trading Halt
SP AusNet (SPN) - Cancellation of the Alinta assets acquisition
ANZ Bank (ANZ) - ANZ achieves advanced accreditation under
regulatory capital changes
Babcock & Brown (BNB) - Assicurazioni Generali Group invests
in BNB Development Fund
Nufarm (NUF) - Acquisition proposal fails to meet deadline
Macquarie Group Limited (MQG) - Macquarie Bank receives
Basel II accreditation from APRA
Downer EDI Limited (DOW) - Appoints Geoff Knox as CEO
Commonwealth Bank (CBA) - CBA achieves advanced
accreditation under regulatory capital changes
BHP Billiton Limited (BHP) - Kilpspruit Coal Project approved
Westpac (WBC) - WBC achieves advanced accreditation under
regulatory capital changes
Hills Industries (HIL) - Trading halt
Foreign Equities
Index/Security Close Chg %Chg
Dow Jones (US) 13,727 +101.5 +0.7
S&P 500 1,516 +11.3 +0.8
NASDAQ 2,719 +12.8 +0.5
FTSE 100 (UK) 6,565 +10.5 +0.2
DAX 30 (Germany) 8,033 +39.3 +0.5
CAC 40 (France) 5,751 +32.2 +0.6
Nikkei (Japan) 15,924 -32.0 -0.2
Figures as at 11/12/2007 8:30 AM AEST
Australian Market Summary
Index/Security Close Chg %Chg
All Ordinaries 6,686 -28.0 -0.4
ASX 200 6,625 -29.6 -0.4
ASX Small Ords 4,034 -0.5 0.0
Industrials 7,013 -52.4 -0.7
Fin.-x-Prop Trusts 7,457 -26.4 -0.4
Materials 15,817 +39.9 +0.3
Cons. Staple 9,084 -109.2 -1.2
Telecom Serv. 1,659 -23.0 -1.4
10y Bond Yield 6.05 +0.04 +0.7
Figures as at 10/12/2007 4:30 PM AEST
Commodities
Index/Security Close Chg %Chg Units
Base Metals
CRB Index 343.5 +0.53 +0.2
Aluminium 2,404 -21.3 -0.9 USD/t
Copper 6,766 -92.5 -1.3 USD/t
Lead 2,539 -128.5 -4.8 USD/t
Nickel 25,945 -1,100.0 -4.1 USD/t
Tin 16,513 +23.0 +0.1 USD/t
Zinc 2,369 -47.5 -2.0 USD/t
Precious Metals
Gold 809 +14.4 +1.8 USD/Oz
Silver 14.7 +0.3 +2.2 USD/Oz
Energy
Oil (West Texas) 87.9 -0.4 -0.5 USD/Bar
Figures as at 11/12/2007 8:30 AM AEST
Currencies
Index/Security Close Chg %Chg Units
AUD / USD 0.885 +0.008 +0.9 $US
AUD / Euro 0.601 +0.003 +0.6 $A
AUD / STG 0.432 -0.002 -0.4 GBP
AUD / Yen 97.9 +0.0 +0.0 Yen
USD / Yen 112 +0.4 +0.3 Yen
Euro / USD 1.47 +0.00 +0.1 $US
Figures as at 10/12/2007 4:30 PM AEST
Private Bank Daily Bulletin
Daily Research Reports
ResMed (RMD) - Model changes...we HOLD our view
SP AusNet (SPN) - Cancellation of the Alinta assets acquisition
Alumina Ltd (AWC) - Recommendation upgrade
Aust Pharmaceutical (API) - Model changes...no change to view
Babcock & Brown Infrastructure Group (BBI) - BBI pursues its port consolidation strategy
Page 3
Private Bank Daily Bulletin
US Equities
US stocks rallied in late afternoon trade, thanks to large cash infusions into battered financial firms and stronger than expected
pending home sales. Investors are also eagerly awaiting tomorrow’s expected interest rate cut.
UBS managed to secure US$11.5B in new equity to help it offset its shocking US$10B writedown due to the credit market
turmoil. While investors were initially put off by the profit warning, they cheered the fact that the Swiss investment bank could
still raise substantial amounts of new capital, most of which came from the Singapore government.
UBS was not the only one to celebrate a cash injection. Troubled bond insurer MBIA surged over 11% after announcing that it
had received a US$1B investment from buyout firm Warburg Pincus amid concerns that MBIA might be facing a liquidity crisis.
Others in the sector also rose as analysts had been speculating that the downtrodden financial sector would receive more
investment inflows after Abu Dhabi’s investment in Citigroup last month. JP Morgan gained over 3% on reports that the
Investment Corporation of Dubai had held talks with the third largest US bank on ways to “cooperate”.
Still on corporate activity, MGI Pharma soared almost 20% after it agreed to be takenover by Japanese drug company Eisai for
US$3.9B in cash.
Meanwhile, a surprise rise in pending home sales for October lifted the S&P Homebuilders index by over 3%. However, the
National Association of Relators, which complied the report, is warning of more pain ahead as home sales are expected to fall
again next year.
Elsewhere, McDonald’s hit fresh record highs after the company said its same-store sales jumped 8.2%, well above
expectations.
Another notable gainer was Cisco Systems on news that AT&T had placed a large order for its routers to upgrade the US phone
giant’s Internet backbone.
Market breadth was positive with all NYSE indices finishing up. Even the Energy sector managed to overcome early weakness
from the lower crude oil price.
US Bonds
US Treasuries extended yesterday’s losses as confidence returned to equity markets ahead of the expected 0.25% interest rate
cut tomorrow.
The yields on the two- and five-year notes rose to 3.17% (+0.07) and 3.54% (+0.05) respectively. The 30-year bond is providing
a yield of 4.60% (+0.04).
US EQUITIES US BONDS
Page 4
Private Bank Daily Bulletin
Commodities
Crude oil prices slipped after warm weather forecasts and lingering concerns about an economic slowdown knocked prices off
early highs.
Crude jumped by more than US$1 in early trade on news that shipping was halted along the fog-shrouded Houston Ship
Channel and by the waning US dollar.
Gold ignored oil and hit a 10-day high thanks to heavy fund buying as prices hit a technical support and the US dollar
weakened.
However, copper prices eased on profit taking as traders were reluctant to open fresh positions ahead of the US interest rate
decision tomorrow.
COPPER & NICKEL OIL
GOLD
Page 5
Private Bank Daily Bulletin
International Markets
European stocks gained for the fourth consecutive session, hitting a five-week high, as investors bet that the worse of the sub-
prime crisis might be over for the banks after UBS announced a US$10B writedown.
In a move similar to Citigroup, UBS said that it would issue US$11.5B worth of new capital. Most of the fresh funds would come
from the Singapore government’s investment arm and the remainder from an unnamed Middle East investor. The Swiss
investment bank will also sell treasury shares and replace its 2007 cash dividend with stock dividend. These initiatives will add
US$17.2B to its capital base.
However, UBS said that it would record a loss for the quarter, its first in nine years. Nonetheless, investors jumped back into the
stock, sending UBS up 2.4%, on the belief that all the sub-prime skeletons have now been cleared from its closet. Others in the
sector also advanced, with Credit Suisse and Commerzbank adding 2.4% and 1.8% respectively.
In M&A news, the world’s largest cement maker Lafarge has agreed to buy Egypt’s Orascom Cement for 8.8B euros. Lafage
said that the acquisition would give it a leading position in the fast-growing markets of the Middle East and Mediterranean.
Shares in the French cement company surged over 13%.
Meanwhile, Dutch electronics giant Philips jumped 3.6% after two US activist hedge funds said they wanted to talk to the
company about its operating performance and capital structure.
Among the leading exchanges, France’s CAC led advancers with a 0.6% gain. The FTSE 100 and DAX finished 0.2% and 0.5
higher.
The US dollar lost ground against the euro as traders nervously eye the massive writedown by UBS and tomorrow’s US interest
rate decision.
Markets have fully priced in a 0.25% cut, but the odds for a more generous 0.5% cut have fallen to 20% from over 40% a week
ago.
In early AEST trade, the British pound jumped 0.78% to US$2.0465 as traders took profit from their short positions, while the
Australian dollar has jumped by almost one US cent, thanks to rising risk appetite and broad weakening of the US dollar.
Australian Stock Prices Overnight
In New York, News Corp fell by US$0.10 to US$21.88, equivalent to A$24.74, A$0.16 below its last close on the ASX.
ResMed was unchanged at US$48.08, equivalent to A$5.44, A$0.04 above its last close on the ASX.
In London, Rio Tinto rose 38.0 pence to £57.84, A$0.88 higher in Australian currency terms.
BHP-Billiton rose 1.0 pence to £16.77, A$0.02 higher in Australian currency terms.
Henderson Group Plc fell 5.25 pence to £1.42, A$0.12 lower in Australian currency terms.
FTSE EURO TOP 100 $US/$A VS EUR/$A
Page 6
Private Bank Daily Bulletin
US Economic Action
According to the National Association of Realtors, Pending Home Sales rose 0.6% for October, versus expectations of further
1% contraction. However, the association is warning that homes sales are likely to decline in 2008, for the third consecutive
year.
Pending Home Sales (for October, released Tue AEST, Prior: 0.2%)
Wholesale Inventories (for October, released Wed AEST, F/cast: 0.5%, Prior: 0.8%)
FOMC Policy Statement (for October, released Wed AEST)
Export Prices excluding agriculture (for November, released Thur AEST, Prior: 0.5%)
Import Prices excluding oil (for November, released Thur AEST, Prior: 0.5%)
Trade Balance (for October, released Thur AEST, F/cast: -US$57.0B, Prior: -US$56.5B)
Crude Inventories (for week of 07 December, released Thur AEST, Prior: -7913K)
Treasury Budget (for November, released Thur AEST, F/cast: -US$75B, Prior: -US$75.6B)
Retail Sales (for November, released Fri AEST, F/cast: 0.5%, Prior: 0.2%)
Retail Sales excluding auto (for November, released Fri AEST, F/cast: 0.6%, Prior: 0.2%)
PPI (for November, released Fri AEST, F/cast: 1.5%, Prior: 0.1%)
Core PPI (for November, released Fri AEST, F/cast: 0.2%, Prior: 0.0%)
Initial Claims (for week of 08 December, released Fri AEST, F/cast: 335K, Prior: 338K)
Business Inventories (for October, released Fri AEST, F/cast: 0.3%, Prior: 0.4%)
CPI (for November, released Sat AEST, F/cast: 0.6%, Prior: 0.3%)
Core CPI (for November, released Sat AEST, F/cast: 0.2%, Prior: 0.2%)
Industrial Production (for November, released Sat AEST, F/cast: 0.1%, Prior: -0.5%)
Utility Utilisation (for November, released Sat AEST, F/cast: 81.7%, Prior: 81.7%)
Page 7
Private Bank Daily Bulletin
Australian Market Summary: As at 10 December 2007
Overview
AUSTRALIAN EQUITIES MARKET: The Australian market opened the week with a decline in the early morning trading. The All
Ordinaries quickly bounced back but lost traction in the early afternoon to loose further ground and end 28 points down.
The S&P/ASX 200 ended 30 points lower with selling in Financials, Energy and Consumer Staples outweighing gains by
Materials. Financials were pulled down by selling in NAB (-$0.34), ANZ (-$0.18) and Commonwealth Bank (-$0.22), while
Suncorp (+$0.15) bucked the trend. Woodside Petroleum (-$1.03) and Origin (-$0.26) dragged on the Energy sector, while
within Consumer Staples we saw declines in Wesfarmers (-$0.98) and Fosters (-$0.13). Meanwhile, Materials were propped up
by buying in Rio Tinto (+$1.22) and Fortescue Metals (+$1.98).
In market news, Healthscope (-$0.03) announced it had varied the terms of its equity swap agreement with Goldman Sachs
JBWere to now have an economic interest in 10.96% of Symbion (unchanged). This interest is now large enough for
Healthscope to prevent Primary Health Care (unchanged) from moving to a compulsory acquisition of Symbion. SP Ausnet
(+$0.10) decided not to proceed with the proposed acquisition of the Alinta assets and businesses from its majority security
holder Singapore Power International. Management confirmed it had incurred a portion of the costs of the transaction, estimated
at $26M but maintained its FY08 full year distribution guidance of 11.55 cps. Shares in Nufarm (-$2.02) fell after a potential
bidder ended takeover talks.
AUSTRALIAN BOND MARKET: The yields on Australian government bonds rose between 8 to 12 basis points through Monday
trade.
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR: The Australian dollar witnessed volatile trade against the greenback but rallied in the afternoon to end
higher at US$0.878.
AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC STATISTICS: ABS AUSTRALIAN HOME LOAN APPROVALS: The ABS reported the number of
home loans granted fell 0.7 percent in October, contrary to the expected 1% growth forecast by analysts. ANZ JOB
ADVERTISEMENTS: Growth in Australian job advertisements eased to 0.7% growth in November.
Market Movers
SECTOR PERFORMANCE
5 BEST / WORST STOCKS
Page 8
Private Bank Daily Bulletin
Companies Ex-Dividend
Ex Date Sub Type Security
Div Amt
(cents)
Franking
24-Dec-07 First Quarter Result AMP Capital China Growth Fund (AGF)
24-Dec-07 Special Event Coates Hire Limited (COA) 53 100
23-Dec-07 First Quarter Result Generator Income Trust ginha (GINHA)
21-Dec-07 Half Yearly Result Aspen Group (APZ) 3.875 0
21-Dec-07 Half Yearly Result Ale Property Group (LEP) 16.75
21-Dec-07 Half Yearly Result Macquarie Communications Infrastructure Group (MCG) 23 0
21-Dec-07 Half Yearly Result Orchard Industrial Property Fund (OIF)
21-Dec-07 Third Quarter Result
CBA Perpetual Exchangeable Repurchaseable Listed Shares
(PERLS III) (PCAPA)
5.5697 0
21-Dec-07 Half Yearly Result Thakral Holdings Group (THG) 2.75 0
20-Dec-07 First Quarter Result
Gunns Frankable Optionally Redeemable Equity Settleable
Transferable Securities (FORESTS) (GNSPA)
166.20 100
20-Dec-07 Half Yearly Result RR Australia Limited (RRA) 1.78 100
18-Dec-07 Special Event Futuris Hybrids (FCLPA) 159.85 100
18-Dec-07 Half Yearly Result PaperlinX Step-up Preference Securities (PXUPA) 452.19 0
17-Dec-07 Special Event Contango Microcap Limited (CTN) 5 100
14-Dec-07 Final Year Result Ruralco Holdings Limited (RHL) 13 100
13-Dec-07 Half Yearly Result Singapore Telecommunications Limited (SGT) 0
12-Dec-07 Special Event Crusade Global Trust No. 1 of 2006 - Class A-3 Notes (CTJ)
12-Dec-07 Half Yearly Result Envirozel Limited (EVZ) .5 100
12-Dec-07 First Quarter Result Timbercorp Orchard Trust 9% Debenture (TODHA) 2.27 0
11-Dec-07 Half Yearly Result Van Eyk Three Pillars Limited (VTP) 5 100
Page 9
Private Bank Daily Bulletin
Flashnotes
MOF announced the official opening of its redevelopment at 2 Market St, Sydney. The $46M co-venture project with Allianz
Australia Ltd was completed in 19 months with a return of over 30%. The redevelopment has repositioned the property as an A-
grade office building and is targeting a 5 star ABGR. The property's office space is 100% occupied with a WALE of 9.2 years
and an expected average annual rental growth of over 4%. The retail space is almost fully let with one tenancy remaining
vacant.
GMG announced it has successfully secured a new $835M (€500 million with ability to draw a further €25M) debt facility for a
term of five years. The debt facility will be used to refinance a smaller expiring facility with the remainder of the funds to be used
for general corporate purposes. The ranking of this facility will be equal with GMG’s existing unsecured debt. The terms,
conditions and pricing are also consistent with GMG’s existing unsecured debt of similar tenor.
MCC has requested that the company be placed in trading halt, pending the release of an announcement. The company will
remain suspended until the release of the announcement, which is expected on or before 12 December, 2007.
MMG announced that together with Fairfax Media (FXJ), it has agreed that the previously announced acquisition by MMG from
FXJ of nine commercial radio licenses, will not proceed. The nine licenses serving five regional areas in South Australia and
Queensland and were conditional on a number of issues including regulatory approval. FXJ will retain the radio stations in the
above mentioned areas, which were acquired in merger with Rural Press.
Macquarie Office Trust (MOF) - Offical opening of 2 Market Street redevelopment 10-Dec-07 14:47
Goodman Group (GMG) - GMG announces $835M five year debt facility 10-Dec-07 13:46
Macarthur Coal Ltd (MCC) - Enters into a trading halt 10-Dec-07 13:43
Macquarie Media Group (MMG) - MMG not to proceed with rural radio station acquisition 10-Dec-07 13:11
Page 10
Private Bank Daily Bulletin
HSP has varied the terms of its equity swap agreement with GS JBWere so that it now has an economic interest in 10.96% of
Symbion at a notional price of $4.09 per share. This interest is now large enough for HSP to prevent Primary Health Care from
moving to a compulsory acquisition of Symbion should its $4.10 cash offer for SYB gain further traction. Primary, meanwhile,
has advised today that it has gained institutional acceptances for 9.72% of SYB, bringing its total interest in SYB to 29.73%.
FXJ announced that together with Macquarie Media Group (MMG), it has agreed that the previously announced acquisition by
MMG from Fairfax Media of nine commercial radio licenses, will not proceed. The nine licenses serving five regional areas in
South Australia and Queensland and were conditional on a number of issues including regulatory approval. FXJ will retain the
radio stations in the above mentioned areas, which were acquired in merger with Rural Press.
HSP has varied the terms of its equity swap agreement with GS JBWere so that it now has an economic interest in 10.96% of
Symbion at a notional price of $4.09 per share. This interest is now large enough for HSP to prevent Primary Health Care from
moving to a compulsory acquisition of Symbion should its $4.10 cash offer for SYB gain further traction. Primary, meanwhile,
has advised today that it has gained institutional acceptances for 9.72% of SYB, bringing its total interest in SYB to 29.73%.
PBG announced it has entered into a conditional agreement to sell its New Zealand Foams, Flooring and Bedding businesses to
Vita New Zealand Limited. Final details will be released once approvals are given and the transaction is complete. The parties
anticipate that the transaction will completed early in 2008.
CDR has announced the appointment of Ms Amanda Lacaze as Managing Director and CEO from 7 January 2008. Mr Coote
tendered his resignation as CEO and director today. The CDR chairman stated that CDR will continue to look at options to
recapitalise and will not contemplate any break up of its core elements. Ms Lacaze has over 20 years experience in
management and marketing with key roles within Telstra, Orion Telecom and AOL|7. Shane Allan also joins the company as a
non-executive director.
Symbion Health Limited (SYB) - Primary snares 30% interest as Healthscope increases stake to 11% 10-Dec-07 13:00
Fairfax Media (FXJ) - To retain radio stations acquired in merger with Rural Press 10-Dec-07 12:59
Healthscope (HSP) - Increases interest in SYB to 11%, as Primary moves to 30% 10-Dec-07 12:46
Pacific Brands (PBG) - Sells NZ Foams, Flooring and Bedding businesses 10-Dec-07 12:43
Commander Communications (CDR) - New commander takes the helm 10-Dec-07 12:32
Page 11
Private Bank Daily Bulletin
DXL has been placed in a trading halt at the request of the company. The securities will remain in pre-open until the earlier of
the commencement of trading on Wednesday, 12 December 2007 or when the announcement is released to the market. DXL
has not disclosed the reason behind the trading halt.
SPN has decided not to proceed with the proposed acquisition of the Alinta assets and businesses from its majority
securityholder Singapore Power International Pte Ltd. It is due to the ongoing deterioration in capital markets, in particular debt
capital markets after the release of the Explanatory Memorandum. SPN has incurred a portion of the costs of the transaction,
estimated at approximately $26M. SPN will maintain its FY08 full year distribution guidance of 11.55 cps.
ANZ advised that it has received advanced accreditation under the new Basel Capital Accord (i.e. Basel II) from the prudential
regulator, APRA. The net effect is that ANZ expects some reduction in the minimum allowable regulatory capital requirements,
however the net impact is still being finalised. APRA has placed a cap of 10% in 2008 and 2009 on any reduction in capital from
the Basel II changes. The approval is effective from 1 Jan 08.
BNB announced the placement of two-thirds of the equity capital in BNB Development Fund (BBDF) to Assicurazioni Generali
group of Italy. BBDF is a 9 year closed end Italian real estate investment fund established and managed by BBSGR, the
licensed Italian asset management company of BNB. Its initial portfolio comprises three developments in Northern Italy with a
value in excess of €300M. BNB through BBSGR will retain management responsibility over the Fund following the sell down.
Dyno Nobel (DXL) - Trading Halt 10-Dec-07 11:57
SP AusNet (SPN) - Cancellation of the Alinta assets acquisition 10-Dec-07 11:47
ANZ Bank (ANZ) - ANZ achieves advanced accreditation under regulatory capital changes 10-Dec-07 11:25
Babcock & Brown (BNB) - Assicurazioni Generali Group invests in BNB Development Fund 10-Dec-07 11:05
Page 12
Private Bank Daily Bulletin
On the 5-Nov-07, an acquisition proposal was put forward by China National Chemical Corp, The Blackstone Group and Fox
Paine Management III to acquire NUF. NUF have advised today that there has been no formalised proposal received and that
discussions between NUF and the consortium have ceased. Management stated that NUF will continue with its expansion plans
in the context of a very positive environment and future outlook for companies involved in agricultural industries.
MQG announced that Macquarie Bank Ltd (MBL) has received accreditation from the Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority
(APRA) to adopt the advanced approach under Basel II from credit risk and operational risk. MQG does not expect any material
reduction in MBL’s regulatory capital as a result of the implementation of Basel II.
DOW has announced the appointment of Mr Geoff Knox as its CEO. He will commence duties on 1 February 2008 and
succeeds Brent Waldron, who was appointed on an interim basis. Prior to accepting the CEO role with DOW, Mr Knox was
Global executive director, Hatchcos Holdings; Executive Chairman, Hatch Associates; and Global Managing Director, Hatch
Infrastructure. He was also the former President of BHP Engineering and VP of BHP Project Management.
From 1 Jan 08 CBA has received advanced accreditation under the new Basel Capital Accord (i.e. Basel II) from the prudential
regulator, APRA. CBA expects its total regulatory capital ratio to rise above 10%, however it does not anticipate a material
change in capital management until the net impact is finalised. APRA has placed a cap of 10% in 2008 and 2009 on any
reduction in capital from the Basel II changes. CBA also noted it is considering applying for Financial Holding Company status.
BHP has approved the Kilpspruit Energy Coal Project in South Africa. The Kilpspruit mine currently has a capacity of 4.8Mtpa,
this will be expanded to 8Mtpa at a cost of US$450M. The project includes the development of a 16Mtpa coal processing plant
called Phola Coal, a 50:50 JV with Anglo Coal. The plant will process 8Mtpa from each JV partner. The increased production is
expected to commence in 2H CY09. The mine is expected to have a 20 year life with current reserves.
WBC advised that it has received advanced accreditation under the new Basel Capital Accord (i.e. Basel II) from the prudential
regulator, APRA. The net effect is that WBC expects to see an increase in its regulatory capital ratios, though the net impact is
still being finalised. APRA has placed a cap of 10% in 2008 and 2009 on any reduction in capital from the Basel II changes. The
approval is effective from 1 Jan 08.
HIL has been placed in a pre-open trading halt. HIL securities will remain in pre-open until 12 Dec 07. Management has
requested this halt while capital is raised to fund the recent proposed acquisition of BSA, as well as further growth. The funding
is expected to take the form of a $50M placement and a $50M Share Purchase Plan. Further details will be released to the
market in due course.
Nufarm (NUF) - Acquisition proposal fails to meet deadline 10-Dec-07 11:01
Macquarie Group Limited (MQG) - Macquarie Bank receives Basel II accreditation from APRA 10-Dec-07 10:52
Downer EDI Limited (DOW) - Appoints Geoff Knox as CEO 10-Dec-07 10:15
Commonwealth Bank (CBA) - CBA achieves advanced accreditation under regulatory capital changes 10-Dec-07 09:49
BHP Billiton Limited (BHP) - Kilpspruit Coal Project approved 10-Dec-07 09:32
Westpac (WBC) - WBC achieves advanced accreditation under regulatory capital changes 10-Dec-07 09:19
Hills Industries (HIL) - Trading halt 10-Dec-07 09:00
Page 13
Private Bank Daily Bulletin
Daily Research Reports
Following RMD's recent recovery in share price, we have reviewed our modelling assumptions. Given the early stage and
potential size of RMD's sleep disordered breathing market, we have assigned a higher growth rate than the 3% GDP level for a
further 10 years beyond the standard 10-year forecast period. As a result of making this adjustment to our perpetuity value, our
12-month target price for RMD has increased by 17%. We remain neutral on RMD on both 12-month and 3-year investment
horizons.
SPN has decided not to proceed with the proposed acquisition of the Alinta assets and businesses from its majority security
holder, Singapore Power International Pte Ltd (SPI). This is due to the ongoing deterioration in support from capital markets, in
particular debt capital markets, after the release of the Explanatory Memorandum. SPN has incurred a portion of the costs of the
transaction, estimated at approximately $26M. SPN will maintain its FY08 full-year distribution guidance of 11.55cps.
We have reviewed our AWC model in light of its recent share price decline, and we consider it necessary to change our
recommendation.
In light of the recent fall in share price, we have reviewed our model. We have increased expected working capital requirements,
which increased forecast interest expense and lowered forecast earnings. We also note that API's recent ejection from the
ASX200 index is likely to be associated with declining institutional interest in the stock, and therefore weaker investor sentiment
to the stock going forward. We retain our neutral view on 12-month and long-term investment horizons.
BBI announced that it has acquired interests in three port operators located in Germany, Belgium and the US. BBI subsidiary
Benelux Port Holdings has acquired 43% of the Westerlund Group (Belgium) with negotiations on the remaining 57% still
underway. BBI acquired 50% of Seehafen Rostock Umschlagsgesellchaft GmbH (Germany) with pre-emptive rights over the
remaining 50%. Lastly, BBI has entered an agreement to acquire 50% of ICS Logistics Inc (US). The acquisitions have an EV of
~A$616.5M.
ResMed (RMD) - Model changes...we HOLD our view
SP AusNet (SPN) - Cancellation of the Alinta assets acquisition
Alumina Ltd (AWC) - Recommendation upgrade
Aust Pharmaceutical (API) - Model changes...no change to view
Babcock & Brown Infrastructure Group (BBI) - BBI pursues its port consolidation strategy
Page 14
Health Care
John Kessell
ASX: RMD Bloomberg: RMD AU Reuters: RMD.AX 10 December 2007
ResMed
Model changes...we HOLD our view
Event
Following RMD's recent recovery in share price, we have reviewed our
modelling assumptions. Our standard model methodology involves 10
years of forecast cash flows followed by a perpetuity value based on an
assumption that earnings growth in the long term revert to an average
GDP growth rate of 3%. Given the early stage and potential size of
RMD's sleep disordered breathing market, we have modelled out a
higher growth rate than the 3% GDP level for a further 10 years beyond
the standard 10-year forecast period. By the end of this period, we drop
the growth rate to 3%.
Implications
As a result of making this adjustment to our perpetuity value, our 12-
month target price for RMD has increased by 17% to $5.93. Our basic
recommendation on RMD remains HOLD for both 12-month and 3-year
investment horizons.
Investment Opinion
ResMed remains the global leader in the Sleep Disordered Breathing
(SDB) market, although CY07's product recall and loss of sales
momentum to competitor Respironics is concerning. Management is
experienced and stable. The SDB market is in its infancy, with studies
increasingly showing links of SDB to serious medical conditions such
as heart disease and diabetes. Our long-term view is neutral.
We continue to like RMD's long-term market opportunity in sleep
disordered breathing, as well as its high quality product suite. However,
we would like to see a reversal of the downward trend in sales growth
and margins, and consider earnings risks to be to the downside. At
current prices, RMD appears fairly valued.
Key Information
Price Performance
Market Statistics
Key Assumptions
Share Price $5.40
12 month view HOLD
12 month target return (%) 9.8
12 month target price $5.93
Long Term View HOLD
Long Term Target Return (% pa) 11.3
3 year target price n/a
Market Cap (M) $4,226
Shares (M) 782.5
% of Market 0.20
% of Sector 7.23
12 Month Range $4.34 - $7.04
Company Risk
Share Price Risk
Ethical rating
Performance against indices (%)
3 Months 6 Months 12 Months
RMD 6.1 3.8 (14.7)
Sector 5.1 14.8 32.7
Market 7.7 6.8 23.5
Beta: 1.1
Market risk premium (%): 5.5
Risk free rate (%): 6.1
WACC (%): 11.3
Forecast cashflow (years): 10
Residual value % of total valuation: 61.2
Nominal terminal growth rate (%): 3.0
Earnings Summary
1 NPAT and EPS are adjusted by removing non-recurring items. All the above statistics are derived from normalised earnings.
Yr to Jun NPAT
Rep $M
NPAT1
Adj $M
EPS1
c
EPS chg
%
PER
x
PER rel
All Ords x
PER rel
Sector x
DPS
c
Yield
%
Franking
%
ROE
%
2006A 119.5 129.9 17.3 39.6 31.2 1.4 0.8 0.0 0.0 0 17.0
2007A 83.2 139.2 18.3 5.5 29.6 1.5 1.0 0.0 0.0 0 13.4
2008F 135.3 140.5 18.3 0.2 29.5 1.9 1.2 0.0 0.0 0 12.5
2009F 170.8 176.1 22.7 23.9 23.8 1.7 1.1 0.0 0.0 0 13.2
ResMed
Year end Jun. All figures in A$M
Notes: 1. The 12M recommendation rates stocks on a 12 month, absolute basis based on the total return (capital and dividends). BUY denotes an expectation of 15% or
more total return; SELL 5% or less; HOLD within the range of 5-15%. ACCEPT OFFER relates to a situation where there is a public offer for shares and our view is to
accept that offer.
2. The Long Term Recommendation rates stocks on a long term, absolute basis based on the average total return per annum (capital and dividends). BUY denotes a long
term expectation of 1% or more above the cost of equity (also known as the required return, which measures the the return required by investors given the company's risk);
HOLD within the range of 1% above and 3% below the cost of equity; SELL more than 3% below the cost of equity but above a total forecast annual return for the stock of
0%; AVOID denotes a long term expectation of a total annual return below 0%. ACCEPT OFFER relates to a situation where there is a public offer for shares and our view
is to accept that offer.
12M Recommendation1: HOLD 12M Target: $5.93 Long Term Recommendation 2: HOLD Long Term Target Return: 11.3% pa
Profit & loss summary 2006A 2007A 2008F 2009F
Operating revenue 821.6 883.6 945.0 1,127.4
Invest & other income 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0
EBITDA 223.4 237.1 229.9 276.3
Depreciation/Amort (35.9) (39.8) (44.2) (47.7)
EBIT 187.5 197.3 185.8 228.7
Net Interest 1.7 6.0 16.6 26.6
Pre-tax profit 189.2 203.3 202.4 255.3
Tax expense (59.3) (64.1) (61.9) (79.1)
Minorities/Assoc./Prefs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
NPAT 129.9 139.2 140.5 176.1
Non recurring items (4.8) (50.3) 0.0 0.0
Reported profit 119.5 83.2 135.3 170.8
NPAT add Goodwill & Pref 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Adjusted profit 129.9 139.2 140.5 176.1
Cashflow summary 2006A 2007A 2008F 2009F
EBITDA 223.4 237.1 229.9 276.3
Working capital changes (55.8) (85.2) (25.7) (58.4)
Interest and tax (66.8) (54.5) (19.6) (44.4)
Other operating items 25.7 0.0 0.0 0.0
Operating cashflow 126.4 97.4 184.6 173.6
Required capex (138.8) (32.1) (31.1) (33.6)
Maintainable cashflow (12.4) 65.3 153.4 140.0
Dividends 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Acq/Disp (14.2) 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other investing items (8.9) (71.8) 0.0 0.0
Free cashflow (35.4) (6.5) 153.4 140.0
Equity 59.4 0.0 0.0 67.2
Debt inc/(red'n) 71.6 (29.7) (153.4) (207.2)
Balance sheet 2006A 2007A 2008F 2009F
Cash & deposits 295.4 334.2 371.8 593.0
Inventories 156.3 189.2 199.2 239.0
Trade debtors 185.9 202.0 204.6 245.5
Other curr assets 49.0 77.8 72.2 77.3
Total current assets 686.5 803.2 847.8 1,154.9
Prop., plant & equip. 330.1 373.7 342.6 340.2
Non-curr intangibles 329.0 304.9 284.9 289.3
Non-curr investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other non-curr assets 9.5 23.2 22.1 22.9
Total assets 1,355.1 1,505.0 1,497.4 1,807.2
Trade creditors 60.6 63.8 64.7 77.7
Curr borrowings 6.6 34.1 32.5 33.6
Other curr liabilities 106.4 144.0 162.8 176.5
Total current liab. 173.6 241.9 260.0 287.7
Borrowings 156.3 105.5 0.0 0.0
Other non-curr liabilities 32.1 37.0 35.2 36.4
Total liabilities 362.0 384.4 295.2 324.2
Minorities/Convertibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Shareholders equity 993.1 1,120.6 1,202.2 1,483.0
Ratio analysis 2006A 2007A 2008F 2009F
Revenue growth (%) 48.4 7.5 7.0 19.3
EBITDA growth (%) 38.3 6.1 (3.0) 20.2
EPS growth (%) 39.6 5.5 0.2 23.9
EBITDA/Sales margin (%) 27.2 26.8 24.3 24.5
EBIT/Sales margin (%) 22.8 22.3 19.7 20.3
Tax rate (%) 31.3 31.6 30.6 31.0
Net debt/equity (%) (13.3) (17.4) (28.2) (37.7)
Net debt/net debt + equity (%) (15.4) (21.0) (39.3) (60.6)
Net interest cover (x) n/a n/a n/a n/a
Payout ratio (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Capex to deprec'n (%) 387.7 80.6 70.5 70.5
NTA per share ($) 0.88 1.09 1.19 1.50
ROA (%) 15.9 14.1 12.9 13.9
ROE (%) 17.0 13.4 12.5 13.2
Multiple analysis 2006A 2007A 2008F 2009F
Market cap (M) 4,226
Net debt ($M) (199.6)
Peripheral assets ($M) (0.0)
Enterprise value ($M) 4,026.1
EV/EBIT (x) 21.5 20.4 21.7 17.6
EV/EBITDA (x) 18.0 17.0 17.5 14.6
EV/EBITDA All Ind (x) 10.3 9.2 8.2 7.6
EV/EBITDA rel All Ind (x) 1.8 1.8 2.1 1.9
P/E (x) 31.2 29.6 29.5 23.8
P/E rel All Ind (x) 1.3 1.5 1.8 1.6
P/E rel All Ind ex banks (x) 1.2 1.5 1.8 1.6
P/E sector (x) 36.8 30.1 25.6 21.6
P/E rel sector (x) 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.1
Assumptions 2006A 2007A 2008F 2009F
US$/A$ ($) 0.74 0.79 0.87 0.86
Euro/A$ ($) 0.61 0.60 0.59 0.58
Inflation (%) 3.20 3.09 2.47 2.50
Notes To Accounts
All P&L items (except Reported profit) now exclude Goodwill
Amortisation as per the IFRS requirements. Note: RMD reports in
USD but all data are translated into AUD in this table.
Copyright © 2000 - 2007 Aegis Equities Holdings Pty Limited. All rights reserved.
This information must be read in conjunction with the Legal Notice which can be located at http://www.aegis.com.au/public/disclaimer.aspx.
Utilities
Wilbur Tong
ASX: SPN Bloomberg: SPN AU Reuters: SPN.AX 10 December 2007
SP AusNet
Cancellation of the Alinta assets
acquisition
Event
SPN has decided not to proceed with the proposed acquisition of the
Alinta assets and businesses from its majority security holder,
Singapore Power International Pte Ltd (SPI). SPN's decision is due to
the ongoing deterioration in support from capital markets, in particular
the debt capital markets, after the release of the Explanatory
Memorandum. SPN has incurred a portion of the costs of the
transaction, estimated at approximately $26M. SPN will maintain its
FY08 full-year distribution guidance of 11.55cps.
Implications
Since the announcement of the potential acquisition of Alinta assets on
20 September 2007, the market has reacted unfavourably to the news.
Our recommendation to security holders in our last report to vote
against the acquisition is consistent with the market view that the
transaction is not value-accretive to SPN. The decision by SPN not to
proceed with the proposed acquisition from its parent, SPI, will improve
the company's outlook in our view. We believe SPN's 12-month price
target will revert back to our original forecast of $1.43, based on its
existing businesses, after allowing for adjustment of the incurred
transaction costs. In our opinion, the market has been sold down since
the pre-announcement high at $1.39. We are reverting both our short-
and long-term recommendations from Hold back to BUY.
Investment Opinion
We view SPN as a solid income-type investment. We like SPN's
portfolio of strong cash flow Victorian-based energy transmission and
distribution assets, which offer scope for moderate electricity and gas
distribution volume growth. The extension into other business streams
is clearly within SPN's strategy as it identified an interest in non-
regulated revenue streams. SPN is backed by Singapore Power Ltd,
which has significant experience in both transmission and distribution
operations.
SPN's immediate outlook is for steady cash flow generation derived
from its utility assets. While it will report negative free cash flow, there
is sufficient debt capacity to support CPI-like growth in the distributions.
We feel SPN is a stable reliable infrastructure player providing a good
dividend yield.
Key Information
Price Performance
Market Statistics
Key Assumptions
Share Price $1.29
12 month view BUY
12 month target return (%) 20.5
12 month target price $1.43
Long Term View BUY
Long Term Target Return (% pa) 13.6
3 year target price n/a
Market Cap (M) $2,689
Shares (M) 2,092.7
% of Market 0.13
% of Sector 7.63
12 Month Range $1.16 - $1.55
Company Risk
Share Price Risk
Ethical rating
Performance against indices (%)
3 Months 6 Months 12 Months
SPN (7.6) (7.2) (4.1)
Sector (4.8) (8.1) 3.9
Market 7.7 6.8 23.5
Beta: 0.8
Market risk premium (%): 5.5
Risk free rate (%): 6.1
WACC (%): 7.7
Forecast cashflow (years): 10
Residual value % of total valuation: 68.9
Nominal terminal growth rate (%): 3.0
Earnings Summary
1 NPAT and EPS are adjusted by removing non-recurring items. All the above statistics are derived from normalised earnings.
Yr to Mar NPAT
Rep $M
NPAT1
Adj $M
EPS1
c
EPS chg
%
PER
x
PER rel
All Ords x
PER rel
Sector x
DPS
c
Yield
%
Franking
%
Deferred Tax
%
2006A 367.6 136.9 6.5 n/a 19.6 0.9 0.6 3.3 2.5 5 68
2007A 178.5 161.5 7.7 18.0 16.7 0.9 0.7 11.3 8.8 9 64
2008F 158.6 176.8 8.4 9.5 15.2 1.0 0.8 11.6 9.0 9 60
2009F 158.4 158.4 7.6 (10.4) 17.0 1.2 1.0 11.8 9.2 9 59
SP AusNet
Year end Mar. All figures in A$M
Notes: 1. The 12M recommendation rates stocks on a 12 month, absolute basis based on the total return (capital and dividends). BUY denotes an expectation of 15% or
more total return; SELL 5% or less; HOLD within the range of 5-15%. ACCEPT OFFER relates to a situation where there is a public offer for shares and our view is to
accept that offer.
2. The Long Term Recommendation rates stocks on a long term, absolute basis based on the average total return per annum (capital and dividends). BUY denotes a long
term expectation of 1% or more above the cost of equity (also known as the required return, which measures the the return required by investors given the company's risk);
HOLD within the range of 1% above and 3% below the cost of equity; SELL more than 3% below the cost of equity but above a total forecast annual return for the stock of
0%; AVOID denotes a long term expectation of a total annual return below 0%. ACCEPT OFFER relates to a situation where there is a public offer for shares and our view
is to accept that offer.
12M Recommendation1: BUY 12M Target: $1.43 Long Term Recommendation 2: BUY Long Term Target Return: 13.6% pa
Profit & loss summary 2006A 2007A 2008F 2009F
Operating revenue 737.5 1,019.3 1,069.9 1,093.7
Invest & other income 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
EBITDA 492.2 624.7 675.9 710.1
Depreciation/Amort (148.6) (200.0) (209.7) (232.9)
EBIT 343.6 424.7 466.2 477.1
Net Interest (166.1) (219.2) (238.8) (273.6)
Pre-tax profit 177.5 205.5 227.4 203.5
Tax expense (40.6) (44.0) (50.6) (45.1)
Minorities/Assoc./Prefs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
NPAT 136.9 161.5 176.8 158.4
Non recurring items 230.7 17.1 (18.2) 0.0
Reported profit 367.6 178.5 158.6 158.4
NPAT add Goodwill & Pref 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Adjusted profit 136.9 161.5 176.8 158.4
Cashflow summary 2006A 2007A 2008F 2009F
EBITDA 492.2 624.7 675.9 710.1
Working capital changes 112.6 16.1 13.0 0.4
Interest and tax (175.2) (251.8) (298.4) (310.0)
Other operating items (251.8) 1.4 (2.8) 0.7
Operating cashflow 177.9 390.4 387.7 401.1
Required capex (294.8) (320.4) (327.3) (300.5)
Maintainable cashflow (117.0) 70.0 60.4 100.6
Dividends 0.0 (185.9) (238.8) (244.8)
Acq/Disp 2,046.1 (80.0) 0.4 0.0
Other investing items (0.6) 2.3 (26.0) 0.0
Free cashflow 1,928.6 (193.6) (204.0) (144.1)
Equity 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Debt inc/(red'n) (1,974.8) 194.0 203.8 144.1
Balance sheet 2006A 2007A 2008F 2009F
Cash & deposits 8.7 9.1 9.0 9.0
Inventories 6.5 5.9 6.2 6.2
Trade debtors 132.0 140.9 135.7 137.3
Other curr assets 194.6 34.2 186.7 186.7
Total current assets 341.8 190.1 337.6 339.2
Prop., plant & equip. 6,227.1 6,312.2 6,437.0 6,504.6
Non-curr intangibles 354.5 354.5 354.5 354.5
Non-curr investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other non-curr assets 23.7 75.5 87.1 87.1
Total assets 6,947.0 6,932.3 7,216.1 7,285.4
Trade creditors 140.3 165.7 173.8 175.8
Curr borrowings 644.4 619.9 619.9 619.9
Other curr liabilities 196.4 95.3 34.5 43.8
Total current liab. 981.2 880.9 828.2 839.5
Borrowings 2,870.4 2,940.3 3,021.5 3,165.6
Other non-curr liabilities 516.9 457.7 781.0 781.2
Total liabilities 4,368.4 4,278.9 4,630.7 4,786.3
Minorities/Convertibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Shareholders equity 2,581.6 2,652.6 2,585.4 2,499.1
Ratio analysis 2006A 2007A 2008F 2009F
Revenue growth (%) 109.6 38.2 5.0 2.2
EBITDA growth (%) 104.9 26.9 8.2 5.1
EPS growth (%) n/a 18.0 9.5 (10.4)
EBITDA/Sales margin (%) 66.7 61.3 63.2 64.9
EBIT/Sales margin (%) 46.6 41.7 43.6 43.6
Tax rate (%) 22.9 21.4 22.3 22.2
Net debt/equity (%) 135.8 133.9 140.5 151.1
Net debt/net debt + equity (%) 57.6 57.2 58.4 60.2
Net interest cover (x) 2.1 1.9 2.0 1.7
Payout ratio (%) 49.7 146.0 136.8 156.4
Capex to deprec'n (%) 198.4 160.2 156.1 129.0
NTA per share ($) 1.06 1.10 1.07 1.02
ROA (%) 5.0 6.0 6.5 6.6
ROE (%) 7.3 6.1 6.7 6.2
Multiple analysis 2006A 2007A 2008F 2009F
Market cap (M) 2,689
Net debt ($M) 3,632.4
Peripheral assets ($M) (0.0)
Enterprise value ($M) 6,321.5
EV/EBIT (x) 18.4 14.9 13.6 13.2
EV/EBITDA (x) 12.8 10.1 9.4 8.9
EV/EBITDA All Ind (x) 10.3 9.2 8.2 7.6
EV/EBITDA rel All Ind (x) 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2
P/E (x) 19.6 16.7 15.2 17.0
P/E rel All Ind (x) 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.1
P/E rel All Ind ex banks (x) 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.1
P/E sector (x) 30.7 25.1 19.3 16.8
P/E rel sector (x) 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0
Assumptions 2006A 2007A 2008F 2009F
GDP growth (%) 4.17 2.41 2.87 3.58
Interest Rates (%) 5.65 6.19 6.85 7.50
Inflation (%) 2.82 3.56 2.36 2.50
Copyright © 2000 - 2007 Aegis Equities Holdings Pty Limited. All rights reserved.
This information must be read in conjunction with the Legal Notice which can be located at http://www.aegis.com.au/public/disclaimer.aspx.
Materials
Gaius King
ASX: AWC Bloomberg: AWC AU Reuters: AWC.AX 10 December 2007
Alumina Ltd
Recommendation upgrade
Event
We have reviewed our AWC model in light of its recent share price
decline, and we consider it necessary to change our recommendation.
Implications
Given recent turmoil in global markets and negative sentiment
associated with the general slowdown expected in the US economy,
especially in the area of housing, it is not surprising that aluminium
consumption has declined 6% in the US. Aluminium consumption
growth elsewhere flourished, from a modest 3% increase in Europe to
45% increase in Chinese demand. Although we expect aluminium
prices to moderate by 7% in 2008, aluminium demand is expected to
double by 2020. To reach this target, annual production growth would
have to increase at a global compound rate of 6% per annum over the
next 12 years.
At its current share price, we have adopted a positive view on
AWC, forecasting a total 12-month return of 22% on the stock. Hence,
we are changing our 12-month recommendation for AWC from Hold to
BUY. The current difference between our IRR and its cost of equity is
1.74%. Therefore, we are also changing our long-term
recommendation on AWC from Hold to BUY.
Investment Opinion
AWC is a 40% partner in Alcoa World Alumina & Chemicals (AWAC), a
globally dominant, low-cost bauxite mining and alumina refining
company. Earnings tend to be cyclical, with the alumina price linked
through long-term contracts to the LME aluminium price, typically in the
12.5%–13.0% range; this increases in periods of high demand. Alcoa
may decide at some stage to bid for Alumina and move to 100% of
AWAC.
The aluminium market is in the midst of flux, with rapid growth in
production from China, which now accounts for 33% of the global
output. This is closely matched with China's growth in consumption,
estimated by AWC to be above 20% per annum. We anticipate that
AWC's strong business fundamentals will continue into 2008. Increased
productive capacity coming on-stream and a relatively strong
aluminium market will result in solid earnings.
Key Information
Price Performance
Market Statistics
Key Assumptions
Share Price $6.48
12 month view BUY
12 month target return (%) 21.3
12 month target price $7.55
Long Term View BUY
Long Term Target Return (% pa) 16.1
3 year target price n/a
Market Cap (M) $7,337
Shares (M) 1,129
% of Market 0.36
% of Sector 1.05
12 Month Range $5.90 - $8.88
Company Risk
Share Price Risk
Ethical rating
Performance against indices (%)
3 Months 6 Months 12 Months
AWC (4.7) (18.5) 0.2
Sector 15.9 23.4 49.0
Market 8.1 7.3 24.0
Beta: 1.5
Market risk premium (%): 5.5
Risk free rate (%): 6.1
WACC (%): 11.7
Forecast cashflow (years): 10
Residual value % of total valuation: 51.9
Nominal terminal growth rate (%): 3.0
Earnings Summary
1 NPAT and EPS are adjusted by removing non-recurring items. All the above statistics are derived from normalised earnings.
Yr to Dec NPAT
Rep $M
NPAT1
Adj $M
EPS1
c
EPS chg
%
PER
x
PER rel
All Ords x
PER rel
Sector x
DPS
c
Yield
%
Franking
%
ROE
%
2006A 569 511 43.8 36.7 14.8 0.7 0.8 22.0 3.4 100 34.5
2007F 469 469 41.5 (5.2) 15.6 0.8 0.9 20.0 3.1 100 27.9
2008F 517 517 45.8 10.3 14.2 0.9 1.0 31.0 4.8 100 28.2
2009F 553 553 49.0 6.9 13.2 0.9 1.1 30.5 4.7 100 27.1
Alumina Ltd
Year end Dec. All figures in A$M
Notes: 1. The 12M recommendation rates stocks on a 12 month, absolute basis based on the total return (capital and dividends). BUY denotes an expectation of 15% or
more total return; SELL 5% or less; HOLD within the range of 5-15%. ACCEPT OFFER relates to a situation where there is a public offer for shares and our view is to
accept that offer.
2. The Long Term Recommendation rates stocks on a long term, absolute basis based on the average total return per annum (capital and dividends). BUY denotes a long
term expectation of 1% or more above the cost of equity (also known as the required return, which measures the the return required by investors given the company's risk);
HOLD within the range of 1% above and 3% below the cost of equity; SELL more than 3% below the cost of equity but above a total forecast annual return for the stock of
0%; AVOID denotes a long term expectation of a total annual return below 0%. ACCEPT OFFER relates to a situation where there is a public offer for shares and our view
is to accept that offer.
12M Recommendation1: BUY 12M Target: $7.55 Long Term Recommendation 2: BUY Long Term Target Return: 16.1% pa
Profit & loss summary 2006A 2007F 2008F 2009F
Operating revenue 3,048 2,819 3,007 3,072
Invest & other income (2) 1 (14) (15)
EBITDA 928 852 946 1,007
Depreciation/Amort (115) (126) (138) (152)
EBIT 812 726 808 855
Net Interest (14) (45) (69) (66)
Pre-tax profit 798 681 738 790
Tax expense (287) (213) (222) (237)
Minorities/Assoc./Prefs 0 0 0 0
NPAT 511 469 517 553
Non recurring items 58 0 0 0
Reported profit 569 469 517 553
NPAT add Goodwill & Pref 0 0 0 0
Adjusted profit 511 469 517 553
Cashflow summary 2006A 2007F 2008F 2009F
EBITDA 928 852 946 1,007
Working capital changes (76) (332) (29) (6)
Interest and tax (16) (326) (255) (296)
Other operating items (169) 293 44 20
Operating cashflow 667 488 705 726
Required capex (259) (77) (86) (98)
Maintainable cashflow 408 411 619 628
Dividends (233) (276) (265) (350)
Acq/Disp 0 (614) (384) (92)
Other investing items 16 0 0 0
Free cashflow 190 (479) (30) 186
Equity 10 (250) 0 0
Debt inc/(red'n) 139 589 30 (186)
Balance sheet 2006A 2007F 2008F 2009F
Cash & deposits 169 0 0 0
Inventories 0 109 119 120
Trade debtors 0 222 242 246
Other curr assets 2 2 2 2
Total current assets 171 332 363 368
Prop., plant & equip. 0 360 677 700
Non-curr intangibles 0 0 0 0
Non-curr investments 2,186 2,402 2,402 2,402
Other non-curr assets 0 0 0 0
Total assets 2,358 3,094 3,442 3,471
Trade creditors 13 11 12 12
Curr borrowings 380 576 581 589
Other curr liabilities 2 109 159 169
Total current liab. 395 696 752 770
Borrowings 208 546 571 377
Other non-curr liabilities 0 162 177 180
Total liabilities 603 1,405 1,501 1,327
Minorities/Convertibles 0 0 0 0
Shareholders equity 1,755 1,690 1,941 2,144
Ratio analysis 2006A 2007F 2008F 2009F
Revenue growth (%) 22.9 (7.5) 6.7 2.1
EBITDA growth (%) 42.0 (8.1) 11.0 6.5
EPS growth (%) 36.7 (5.2) 10.3 6.9
EBITDA/Sales margin (%) 30.4 30.2 31.4 32.8
EBIT/Sales margin (%) 26.6 25.8 26.8 27.8
Tax rate (%) 36.0 31.2 30.0 30.0
Net debt/equity (%) 23.9 66.4 59.3 45.0
Net debt/net debt + equity (%) 19.3 39.9 37.2 31.1
Net interest cover (x) 56.8 16.2 11.7 13.0
Payout ratio (%) 50.3 48.2 67.7 62.3
Capex to deprec'n (%) 224.7 60.8 62.2 64.6
NTA per share ($) 1.55 1.50 1.72 1.90
ROA (%) 29.8 28.2 24.7 24.8
ROE (%) 34.5 27.9 28.2 27.1
Multiple analysis 2006A 2007F 2008F 2009F
Market cap (M) 7,337
Net debt ($M) 768
Peripheral assets ($M) 0
Enterprise value ($M) 8,105
EV/EBIT (x) 10.0 11.4 10.0 9.5
EV/EBITDA (x) 8.7 9.7 8.6 8.0
EV/EBITDA All Ind (x) 10.3 9.3 8.2 7.6
EV/EBITDA rel All Ind (x) 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.1
P/E (x) 14.8 15.6 14.2 13.2
P/E rel All Ind (x) 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9
P/E rel All Ind ex banks (x) 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9
P/E sector (x) 19.1 17.6 14.0 11.9
P/E rel sector (x) 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1
Assumptions 2006A 2007F 2008F 2009F
US$/A$ ($) 0.75 0.84 0.87 0.84
Aluminium (US$/lb) 1.18 1.21 1.13 1.05
GDP growth (%) 2.66 2.63 3.47 3.49
Copyright © 2000 - 2007 Aegis Equities Holdings Pty Limited. All rights reserved.
This information must be read in conjunction with the Legal Notice which can be located at http://www.aegis.com.au/public/disclaimer.aspx.
Alumina Ltd
Aluminium Supply
Unlike many other commodities, Aluminium has not displayed the spectacular price increases (see Figure 2).
We expect that average aluminium price will drop by 7.2% to $2,481/t next year from an expected $2,673/t this
year. Production is expected to exceed consumption for a second successive year, leading to a build in stocks to around
5.4 weeks’ consumption by the end of 2008 from 4.6 weeks’ consumption at the end of this year.
TABLE 2: ALUMINIUM PRODUCTION, CONSUMPTION AND FORECAST 2008 PRICE
Source: ABARE/Aegis Equities * CY2007 over CY2008
FIGURE 2: ALUMINIUM LME STOCKPILE AND PRICE
Source: Bloomberg/Aegis Equities
ABARE expects average alumina prices to fall by 10% to an average US$296/t in 2008 from around $330/t this year.
This year’s expected average already represents a 24% reduction from 2006 prices. Despite the strong increase in
global aluminium production this year - and thus in alumina consumption - alumina production growth in the likes of
China, Australia, Brazil and Russia is expected to exceed consumption growth in the short-term.
According to the International Aluminium Institute, global aluminium production has increased a staggering 12.7% on a
pcp basis, primarily from China, as well as contributions from Argentina, Brazil, Iceland, India, Iran, Russia and the
United Arab Emirates.
This production growth is, however, expected to moderate dramatically, as the impact of increasing power costs makes
some existing facilities uneconomic, such as those that have recently closed in France, Germany and Norway.
Aluminium Demand
As mentioned previously (see "Updated currency assumptions", released on 4 July 2007), aluminium is a potential
substitute for copper (although it only has 65% of copper's conductivity). For example, aluminium can be used for
electrical transformers and long-distance electricity transmission cabling. Since June 2002, aluminium prices have
declined relative to copper and, currently, aluminium is approximately 30% to 40% of copper prices.
Despite a 6% decline in consumption by North America, consumption has grown 3.2% in Europe, 5.2% in Asia (without
China), 7.8% in Latin America, 9.9% in Russia and 10% for the rest of the world (Alcoa, 2007).
2006a 2007f 2008f % Change*
Production kt 33,967 37,730 40,440 7.2%
Consumption kt 33,970 37,218 39,599 6.4%
Closing Stocks kt 2,764 3,277 4,118 25.7%
Weeks consumption 4.2 4.6 5.4 17.4%
Price US$/t 2,570 2,673 2,481 -7.2%
Usc/lb 116.6 1.21 1.13 -7.2%
Copyright © 2000 - 2007 Aegis Equities Holdings Pty Limited. All rights reserved.
This information must be read in conjunction with the Legal Notice which can be located at http://www.aegis.com.au/public/disclaimer.aspx.
Alumina Ltd
Aluminium Demand (cont.)
The key driver, however, is Chinese aluminium consumption, which has increased by 45% over the pcp, driven by
strong growth in building construction, expansion of electrical power grids, and growing output of consumer household
products and motor vehicles. In the first nine months of 2007, investment in fixed assets, such as factories and housing,
increased by around 26% over the pcp, while light motor vehicle production increased by 20%. Over the same period,
both electricity production and the production of major white goods increased by 14% (ABARE 2007).
In 2008, ABARE expects Chinese consumption of aluminium to increase by 13% to almost 13.6Mt as a result of
continued strong economic and industrial production growth, with global aluminium demand forecast to double by 2020
(WBMS, 2007).
Aluminium production is forecast to rise by more than 7% to 40.4Mt, largely as a result of continued strong production
growth in China. Both 3-month and 15-month futures are in contango (i.e., future expected prices are higher than those
at present).
FIGURE 3: ALUMINIUM PRICE AND FUTURES DIFFERENTIAL
Source: Bloomberg/Aegis Equities
Outlook
Given recent turmoil in global markets and negative sentiment associated with the general slowdown expected in the US
economy, especially in the area of housing, it is not surprising that aluminium consumption has declined 6% in the US
only. We believe that this is predominately the reason why there has been negative sentiment towards AWC.
Global aluminium demand is forecast to double by 2020. To reach this target, annual production growth would have to
increase at a compound rate of 6% per annum over the next 12 years.
Chinese consumption of aluminium is forecast to increase by 13% to almost 13.6Mt as a result of continued strong
economic and industrial production growth.
As a result of increased capacity coming online in 2007, we expect average aluminium price will drop by 7.2% to
$2,481/t next year from an expected $2,673/t this year. Production is expected to exceed consumption for a second
successive year, leading to a build in stocks to around 5.4 weeks’ consumption by the end of 2008 from 4.6 weeks’
consumption at the end of this year.
At its current share price, we have adopted a positive view on AWC, forecasting a total 12-month return of 22% on the
stock. Hence, we are changing our 12-month recommendation for AWC from Hold to BUY.
The current difference between our IRR and its cost of equity is 1.74%. Therefore, we are also changing our long-term
recommendation on AWC from Hold to BUY.
Copyright © 2000 - 2007 Aegis Equities Holdings Pty Limited. All rights reserved.
This information must be read in conjunction with the Legal Notice which can be located at http://www.aegis.com.au/public/disclaimer.aspx.
Health Care
John Kessell
ASX: API Bloomberg: API AU Reuters: API.AX 10 December 2007
Aust Pharmaceutical
Model changes...no change to view
Event
In light of the recent fall in share price, we have reviewed our model.
We have increased expected working capital requirements as we
consider the levels at which API ended their 16-month transitional
period to be unsustainably low. We also note that API's recent ejection
from the ASX200 index is likely to be associated with declining
institutional interest in the stock and, therefore, weaker investor
sentiment to the stock going forward.
Implications
The net effect of the increased forecast working capital has been a
requirement for increased debt with some increase in interest expense
and consequent decrease in EPS in FY08 and FY09 by around 6%.
Our 12-month target price has fallen by 11% to $2.01. We maintain our
HOLD recommendations on 12-month and long-term investment
horizons.
Investment Opinion
API is Australia's largest pharmacy distributor and has a large group of
loyal banner-brand pharmacy members (Soul Pattinson, ChemWorld,
Pharmacist Advice). The company's reputation suffered further damage
in FY07 from a poor operational result following the financial
embarrassment suffered in FY06. The Alphapharm partnership is a
coup for API. Our long-term view for API is neutral.
The FY07 result showed both Pharmacy and Retail businesses have a
long way to go to recover, but the interim 4-month result post-FY07
showed that the CEO is making good headway in improving the
business. The risk to earnings forecasts is diminishing. Nevertheless,
continued uncertainty surrounds the new generics-related regulatory
changes to the PBS, to be introduced in 2H CY08. HOLD.
Key Information
Price Performance
Market Statistics
Key Assumptions
Share Price $1.82
12 month view HOLD
12 month target return (%) 12.0
12 month target price $2.01
Long Term View HOLD
Long Term Target Return (% pa) 12.5
3 year target price n/a
Market Cap (M) $472
Shares (M) 257.3
% of Market 0.02
% of Sector 0.80
12 Month Range $1.65 - $2.48
Company Risk
Share Price Risk
Ethical rating
Performance against indices (%)
3 Months 6 Months 12 Months
API (6.4) (22.9) (26.3)
Sector 5.8 15.6 33.6
Market 8.1 7.3 24.0
Beta: 1.3
Market risk premium (%): 5.5
Risk free rate (%): 6.1
WACC (%): 12.2
Forecast cashflow (years): 10
Residual value % of total valuation: 49.9
Nominal terminal growth rate (%): 3.0
Earnings Summary
1 NPAT and EPS are adjusted by removing non-recurring items. All the above statistics are derived from normalised earnings.
Yr to Apr NPAT
Rep $M
NPAT1
Adj $M
EPS1
c
EPS chg
%
PER
x
PER rel
All Ords x
PER rel
Sector x
DPS
c
Yield
%
Franking
%
ROE
%
2006A 20.6 39.3 15.3 (9.8) 11.9 0.5 0.3 9.3 5.1 100 8.9
2007A (14.1) 7.3 2.8 (81.5) 64.1 3.3 2.1 0.0 0.0 0 1.8
2008F 27.0 26.0 10.1 257.0 17.9 1.1 0.7 2.5 1.4 100 6.2
2009F 32.6 32.6 12.7 25.2 14.3 1.0 0.7 9.5 5.2 100 7.4
Aust Pharmaceutical
Year end Apr. All figures in A$M
Notes: 1. The 12M recommendation rates stocks on a 12 month, absolute basis based on the total return (capital and dividends). BUY denotes an expectation of 15% or
more total return; SELL 5% or less; HOLD within the range of 5-15%. ACCEPT OFFER relates to a situation where there is a public offer for shares and our view is to
accept that offer.
2. The Long Term Recommendation rates stocks on a long term, absolute basis based on the average total return per annum (capital and dividends). BUY denotes a long
term expectation of 1% or more above the cost of equity (also known as the required return, which measures the the return required by investors given the company's risk);
HOLD within the range of 1% above and 3% below the cost of equity; SELL more than 3% below the cost of equity but above a total forecast annual return for the stock of
0%; AVOID denotes a long term expectation of a total annual return below 0%. ACCEPT OFFER relates to a situation where there is a public offer for shares and our view
is to accept that offer.
12M Recommendation1: HOLD 12M Target: $2.01 Long Term Recommendation 2: HOLD Long Term Target Return: 12.5% pa
Profit & loss summary 2006A 2007A 2008F 2009F
Operating revenue 2,919.6 3,589.3 3,025.7 3,082.4
Invest & other income 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
EBITDA 71.7 70.1 67.9 72.7
Depreciation/Amort (11.7) (21.1) (18.0) (18.5)
EBIT 60.1 49.0 49.9 54.2
Net Interest (13.3) (27.6) (0.6) 0.2
Pre-tax profit 46.8 21.4 49.3 54.4
Tax expense (7.8) (6.2) (13.8) (16.3)
Minorities/Assoc./Prefs 0.3 (7.9) (9.4) (5.5)
NPAT 39.3 7.3 26.0 32.6
Non recurring items (18.8) (21.4) 1.0 0.0
Reported profit 20.6 (14.1) 27.0 32.6
NPAT add Goodwill & Pref 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Adjusted profit 39.3 7.3 26.0 32.6
Cashflow summary 2006A 2007A 2008F 2009F
EBITDA 71.7 70.1 67.9 72.7
Working capital changes 108.8 65.1 (87.7) 0.7
Interest and tax (21.8) (29.6) (12.7) (15.1)
Other operating items (70.2) (69.8) 0.1 (3.1)
Operating cashflow 88.5 35.8 (32.3) 55.2
Required capex (18.3) (23.6) (19.3) (19.9)
Maintainable cashflow 70.2 12.1 (51.6) 35.3
Dividends (33.5) (7.7) 0.0 (19.3)
Acq/Disp 21.0 3.1 9.5 1.0
Other investing items (29.1) 5.4 1.0 0.0
Free cashflow 28.7 12.9 (41.2) 17.0
Equity 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Debt inc/(red'n) (18.7) (33.4) 41.2 (17.0)
Balance sheet 2006A 2007A 2008F 2009F
Cash & deposits 36.1 16.1 0.0 0.0
Inventories 251.1 301.0 347.1 343.6
Trade debtors 212.0 148.3 182.7 180.9
Other curr assets 3.0 23.4 23.4 23.4
Total current assets 502.3 488.8 553.2 547.9
Prop., plant & equip. 72.6 77.3 69.2 69.6
Non-curr intangibles 212.9 208.6 208.6 208.6
Non-curr investments 30.0 23.8 19.0 16.2
Other non-curr assets 59.3 109.6 109.6 109.6
Total assets 877.0 908.3 959.7 951.9
Trade creditors 412.6 464.0 456.7 452.2
Curr borrowings 6.5 8.7 8.7 8.7
Other curr liabilities 18.7 17.6 20.0 20.8
Total current liab. 437.9 490.2 485.4 481.7
Borrowings 4.8 2.9 28.0 11.0
Other non-curr liabilities 5.5 8.0 12.3 12.2
Total liabilities 448.2 501.1 525.7 504.9
Minorities/Convertibles 0.9 0.0 (0.2) (0.4)
Shareholders equity 428.9 407.2 434.0 447.0
Ratio analysis 2006A 2007A 2008F 2009F
Revenue growth (%) (13.7) 22.9 (15.7) 1.9
EBITDA growth (%) (4.6) (2.3) (3.2) 7.1
EPS growth (%) (9.8) (81.5) 257.0 25.2
EBITDA/Sales margin (%) 2.5 2.0 2.2 2.4
EBIT/Sales margin (%) 2.1 1.4 1.6 1.8
Tax rate (%) 16.6 28.8 28.0 30.0
Net debt/equity (%) (5.8) (1.1) 8.5 4.4
Net debt/net debt + equity (%) (6.1) (1.1) 7.8 4.2
Net interest cover (x) 4.5 1.8 80.7 n/a
Payout ratio (%) 60.6 0.0 24.7 75.0
Capex to deprec'n (%) 163.3 111.8 107.2 107.2
NTA per share ($) 0.84 0.77 0.88 0.93
ROA (%) 5.5 5.2 5.2 5.4
ROE (%) 8.9 1.8 6.2 7.4
Multiple analysis 2006A 2007A 2008F 2009F
Market cap (M) 472
Net debt ($M) (4.5)
Peripheral assets ($M) (0.0)
Enterprise value ($M) 467.8
EV/EBIT (x) 7.8 9.5 9.4 8.6
EV/EBITDA (x) 6.5 6.7 6.9 6.4
EV/EBITDA All Ind (x) 10.3 9.3 8.2 7.6
EV/EBITDA rel All Ind (x) 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8
P/E (x) 11.9 64.1 17.9 14.3
P/E rel All Ind (x) 0.5 3.2 1.1 0.9
P/E rel All Ind ex banks (x) 0.5 3.2 1.1 0.9
P/E sector (x) 37.0 30.3 25.6 21.7
P/E rel sector (x) 0.3 2.1 0.7 0.7
Assumptions 2006A 2007A 2008F 2009F
GDP growth (%) 4.17 2.41 2.87 3.58
Interest Rates (%) 5.65 6.27 6.36 6.30
Inflation (%) 2.82 3.56 2.36 2.50
Notes To Accounts
Note: API changed its year end from April to August from 1-Sep-07.
The company reported results for the four month interim period from
May-07 to Aug-07 in October, and we have restated our FY07
financials to cover the 16 month period from May-06 to Aug-07.
Copyright © 2000 - 2007 Aegis Equities Holdings Pty Limited. All rights reserved.
This information must be read in conjunction with the Legal Notice which can be located at http://www.aegis.com.au/public/disclaimer.aspx.
Utilities
Alan Stuart
ASX: BBI Bloomberg: BBI AU Reuters: BBI.AX 08 December 2007
Babcock & Brown Infrastructure Group
BBI pursues its port consolidation
strategy
Event
BBI announced that it has acquired interests in three port operators
located in Germany, Belgium and the US. BBI subsidiary Benelux Port
Holdings has acquired 43% of the Westerlund Group (Belgium) with
negotiations on the remaining 57% still underway. BBI acquired 50% of
Seehafen Rostock Umschlagsgesellchaft GmbH (Germany) with pre-
emptive rights over the remaining 50%. Lastly, BBI has entered an
agreement to acquire 50% of ICS Logistics Inc (US). The acquisitions
have an EV of ~A$616.5M.
Implications
We have made no adjustments to our EPS forecasts at this time.
We shall be having discussions with management to confirm some of
our model assumptions before updating our financial forecasts. That
said, from a broad overview of the transaction, it looks positive.
Following our discussions with management we shall provide an
update. We retain our bullish view on both 12-month and long-term
investment horizons.
Investment Opinion
BBI is a diversified utility and infrastructure vehicle with an aggressive
asset growth profile, having acquired $6B+ of assets since listing in
2002. BBI's long-life, long concession, monopolistic underlying assets
produce strong and stable cash flows, secured by regulated tariff
regimes or contracted revenues. We expect continued success via its
relationship with BNB, which identifies, secures and finances BBI's
acquisitions. We have a positive long-term view on the stock.
Our BBI forecasts reflect improved cash flows derived from its wholly
owned Dalrymple Bay Coal Terminal and moderate growth from its
utilities portfolio. We favour the proposed acquisition of the AAN assets
and expect the deal to be earnings accretive. BBI offers an attractive
yield, given its moderate growth outlook. Overall, we have a positive
12-month view on the stock.
Key Information
Price Performance
Market Statistics
Key Assumptions
Share Price $1.64
12 month view BUY
12 month target return (%) 32.1
12 month target price $2.02
Long Term View BUY
Long Term Target Return (% pa) 20.0
3 year target price n/a
Market Cap (M) $3,597
Shares (M) 1,745.8
% of Market 0.17
% of Sector 10.23
12 Month Range $1.42 - $2.03
Company Risk
Share Price Risk
Ethical rating
Performance against indices (%)
3 Months 6 Months 12 Months
BBI (0.6) (11.1) (9.1)
Sector (4.5) (7.8) 4.3
Market 8.1 7.3 24.0
Beta: 1.3
Market risk premium (%): 5.5
Risk free rate (%): 6.1
WACC (%): 8.8
Forecast cashflow (years): 10
Residual value % of total valuation: 60.5
Nominal terminal growth rate (%): 3.0
Earnings Summary
1 NPAT and EPS are adjusted by removing non-recurring items. All the above statistics are derived from normalised earnings.
Yr to Jun NPAT
Rep $M
NPAT1
Adj $M
EPS1
c
EPS chg
%
PER
x
PER rel
All Ords x
PER rel
Sector x
DPS
c
Yield
%
Franking
%
Deferred Tax
%
2006A 82.7 13.5 1.2 n/a >99 6.3 4.5 13.3 8.1 0 100
2007A 106.8 47.7 3.1 158.2 53.3 2.7 2.1 14.3 8.7 0 100
2008F 113.7 163.5 7.8 153.0 21.1 1.3 1.1 15.0 9.1 0 100
2009F 134.3 193.9 8.7 12.3 18.8 1.3 1.1 16.0 9.8 0 100
Babcock & Brown Infrastructure Group
Year end Jun. All figures in A$M
Notes: 1. The 12M recommendation rates stocks on a 12 month, absolute basis based on the total return (capital and dividends). BUY denotes an expectation of 15% or
more total return; SELL 5% or less; HOLD within the range of 5-15%. ACCEPT OFFER relates to a situation where there is a public offer for shares and our view is to
accept that offer.
2. The Long Term Recommendation rates stocks on a long term, absolute basis based on the average total return per annum (capital and dividends). BUY denotes a long
term expectation of 1% or more above the cost of equity (also known as the required return, which measures the the return required by investors given the company's risk);
HOLD within the range of 1% above and 3% below the cost of equity; SELL more than 3% below the cost of equity but above a total forecast annual return for the stock of
0%; AVOID denotes a long term expectation of a total annual return below 0%. ACCEPT OFFER relates to a situation where there is a public offer for shares and our view
is to accept that offer.
12M Recommendation1: BUY 12M Target: $2.02 Long Term Recommendation 2: BUY Long Term Target Return: 20.0% pa
Profit & loss summary 2006A 2007A 2008F 2009F
Operating revenue 787.7 1,239.3 1,617.4 1,700.7
Invest & other income (18.4) 0.0 (44.5) (45.6)
EBITDA 358.7 485.2 736.4 776.9
Depreciation/Amort (123.8) (181.0) (260.3) (265.5)
EBIT 234.9 304.2 476.1 511.4
Net Interest (236.1) (301.7) (214.4) (217.4)
Pre-tax profit (1.2) 2.5 261.7 294.0
Tax expense 15.6 51.3 (87.0) (88.2)
Minorities/Assoc./Prefs (0.9) (6.1) (61.0) (71.5)
NPAT 13.5 47.7 113.7 134.3
Non recurring items 69.2 59.1 0.0 0.0
Reported profit 82.7 106.8 113.7 134.3
NPAT add Goodwill & Pref 0.0 0.0 49.8 59.6
Adjusted profit 13.5 47.7 163.5 193.9
Cashflow summary 2006A 2007A 2008F 2009F
EBITDA 358.7 485.2 736.4 776.9
Working capital changes 181.1 105.1 25.5 6.5
Interest and tax (199.8) (284.4) (246.2) (288.0)
Other operating items (32.8) (90.5) (17.7) 1.7
Operating cashflow 307.2 215.5 498.0 497.0
Required capex (326.9) (581.8) (108.9) (114.3)
Maintainable cashflow (19.6) (366.3) 389.1 382.7
Dividends (62.9) (204.0) (312.8) (403.9)
Acq/Disp (1,257.5) (56.2) (823.2) (550.0)
Other investing items 6.8 (219.0) 0.0 0.0
Free cashflow (1,333.3) (845.4) (746.9) (571.2)
Equity 682.7 562.1 1,520.2 0.0
Debt inc/(red'n) 665.3 204.3 (773.3) 571.2
Balance sheet 2006A 2007A 2008F 2009F
Cash & deposits 309.1 227.9 50.0 50.0
Inventories 14.9 14.9 18.8 19.7
Trade debtors 225.4 185.3 233.9 246.2
Other curr assets 74.0 235.7 235.7 235.7
Total current assets 623.4 663.7 538.3 551.6
Prop., plant & equip. 4,390.0 5,026.4 5,718.2 6,147.1
Non-curr intangibles 1,967.1 2,113.3 2,113.3 2,113.3
Non-curr investments 391.8 382.5 382.5 382.6
Other non-curr assets 150.2 210.3 172.2 144.7
Total assets 7,522.5 8,396.2 8,924.6 9,339.2
Trade creditors 232.4 297.3 375.4 395.1
Curr borrowings 130.1 37.7 37.7 37.7
Other curr liabilities 53.0 86.7 166.2 170.4
Total current liab. 415.5 421.7 579.2 603.2
Borrowings 4,452.4 4,640.2 3,689.0 4,260.2
Other non-curr liabilities 719.0 864.6 825.6 825.6
Total liabilities 5,586.9 5,926.5 5,093.8 5,689.0
Minorities/Convertibles 136.4 122.5 933.8 945.7
Shareholders equity 1,935.8 2,469.7 3,830.8 3,650.3
Ratio analysis 2006A 2007A 2008F 2009F
Revenue growth (%) 117.1 57.3 30.5 5.2
EBITDA growth (%) 95.1 35.3 51.8 5.5
EPS growth (%) n/a 158.2 153.0 12.3
EBITDA/Sales margin (%) 45.5 39.2 45.5 45.7
EBIT/Sales margin (%) 29.8 24.5 29.4 30.1
Tax rate (%) >1000 (<1000) 33.2 30.0
Net debt/equity (%) 237.5 189.6 126.9 157.1
Net debt/net debt + equity (%) 70.4 65.5 55.9 61.1
Net interest cover (x) 1.0 1.0 2.2 2.4
Payout ratio (%) >1000 463.3 192.6 183.2
Capex to deprec'n (%) 264.0 321.4 41.8 43.1
NTA per share ($) (0.11) 0.13 0.35 0.27
ROA (%) 4.7 3.8 5.5 5.6
ROE (%) 1.1 2.5 4.0 4.8
Multiple analysis 2006A 2007A 2008F 2009F
Market cap (M) 3,597
Net debt ($M) 4,450.0
Peripheral assets ($M) (377.2)
Enterprise value ($M) 7,669.8
EV/EBIT (x) 32.8 25.2 16.1 15.0
EV/EBITDA (x) 21.4 15.8 10.4 9.9
EV/EBITDA All Ind (x) 10.3 9.3 8.2 7.6
EV/EBITDA rel All Ind (x) 2.1 1.7 1.3 1.3
P/E (x) >99 53.3 21.1 18.8
P/E rel All Ind (x) 5.9 2.7 1.3 1.2
P/E rel All Ind ex banks (x) 5.5 2.7 1.3 1.2
P/E sector (x) 30.5 25.0 19.2 16.7
P/E rel sector (x) 4.5 2.1 1.1 1.1
Assumptions 2006A 2007A 2008F 2009F
GDP growth (%) 2.92 2.50 3.02 3.64
Interest Rates (%) 5.73 6.38 6.34 6.30
Inflation (%) 3.20 3.09 2.47 2.50
Notes To Accounts
All P&L items (except Reported profit) now exclude Goodwill
Amortisation as per the new IFRS requirements. Our adjusted NPAT
represents returns to both ordinary unit holders and preference share
holders.
Copyright © 2000 - 2007 Aegis Equities Holdings Pty Limited. All rights reserved.
This information must be read in conjunction with the Legal Notice which can be located at http://www.aegis.com.au/public/disclaimer.aspx.
Andrew Black Neil Verringer
General Manager, St George Private Bank Head of BSA Private Bank
BLACKA@STGEORGE.COM.AU VERRINGERN@BANKSA.COM.AU
Phone +61 2 9236 3056 Phone + 61 088424 5487
St.George Private Bank & BankSA Private Bank
Locations
Sydney
Level 4, 182 George Street, Sydney, NSW 2000
Phone (02) 9236 1882
Melbourne
Level 8, 530 Collins Street, Melbourne, VIC 3000
Phone (03) 9274 4850
Brisbane
Central Plaza, Level 4, 345 Queen Street,
Brisbane, QLD 4000
(07) 3232 8888
Perth
152-158 St Georges Terrace, Perth, WA 6000
Phone (08) 9265 7510
Adelaide
BankSA Private Bank
Level 1, 97 King William Street
Adelaide, SA 5000
(08) 8424 4141
Staff Directory
Private Bank Directors
Warren Acworth Brisbane acworthw@stgeorge.com.au
Richard Battifuoco Adelaide battifuocor@banksa.com.au
David Gray Sydney grayda@stgeorge.com.au
David Scannell Sydney scannelld@stgeorge.com.au
David Wyndham Sydney wyndhamd@stgeorge.com.au
Private Bank Relationship Managers – Financial Advice
Peter Coulthard Melbourne coulthardp@stgeorge.com.au
Andrew Smith Sydney smitha@stgeorge.com.au
Damien Ferguson Brisbane fergusond@stgeorge.com.au
Gerry Duffy Sydney duffyg@stgeorge.com.au
ROXANNE GORMAN SYDNEY GORMANR@STGEORGE.COM.AU
Sharyn Besch Brisbane BESCHS@STGEORGE.COM.AU
Darren Carr Perth CARRDA@STGEORGE.COM.AU
Private Bank Relationship Managers – Banking
Jeanette McCann Sydney mccannj@stgeorge.com.au
Brett Edwards Sydney edwardsbr@stgeorge.com.au
Anne Fraser Sydney frasera@stgeorge.com.au
Scott Heyes Melbourne heyess@stgeorge.com.au
Andrew Horsnell Adelaide horsnella@banksa.com.au
Bruce Kleem Sydney kleemb@stgeorge.com.au
Lisa Marks Melbourne marksl@stgeorge.com.au
Kishore Mudaliar Sydney mudaliark@stgeorge.com.au
Richard Northey Sydney northeyr@stgeorge.com.au
Josie Prasad Sydney prasadj@stgeorge.com.au
Geoffrey Bell Sydney bellge@stgeorge.com.au
Josephine Prasad Sydney prasadjo@stgeorge.com.au
Disclaimer and Disclosure of Interest
This publication has been prepared by Aegis Equities Research Pty Limited (ACN 085 293 910) (“Aegis”), an
Australian Financial Services Licensee . St.George Wealth Management Pty Limited (ABN 28 006 929 004),
St.George Bank Limited (ABN 92 055 513 070), trading as BankSA (SGB Entities) has not had any involvement in
the research for or preparation of any part of this publication. Whilst the information contained in this publication has
been prepared with all reasonable care from sources, which Aegis believes are reliable, no responsibility or liability is
accepted by Aegis or SGB Entities for any errors or omissions or misstatements however caused. Any opinions,
forecasts or recommendations reflects the judgement and assumptions of Aegis as at the date of publication and
may change without notice. Aegis and SGB Entities, their officers, agents and employees exclude all liability
whatsoever, in negligence or otherwise, for any loss or damage relating to this document to the full extent permitted
by law. This publication is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase
or subscribe for any investment. Any securities recommendation contained in this publication is unsolicited general
information only. Aegis and SGB Entities are not aware that any recipient intends to rely on this publication and are
not aware of the manner in which a recipient intends to use it. In preparing our information, it is not possible to take
into consideration the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any individual recipient.
Investors must obtain individual financial advice from their investment advisor to determine whether
recommendations contained in this publication are appropriate to their personal investment objectives, financial
situation or particular needs before acting on any such recommendations. This publication is not for public circulation
or reproduction whether in whole or in part and is not to be disclosed to any person other than the intended recipient,
without obtaining the prior written consent of Aegis. Aegis and/or SGB Entities, their officers, employees, consultants
or its related bodies corporate may, from time to time hold positions in any securities included in this report and may
buy or sell such securities or engage in other transactions involving such securities. Aegis and SGB Entities, their
Directors and associates declare that from time to time they may hold interests in and/or earn brokerage, fees or
other benefits from securities mentioned in this publication.
Aegis, its officers, employees, consultants and its related bodies corporate have not and will not receive, whether
directly or indirectly, any commission, fee, benefit or advantage, whether pecuniary or otherwise in connection with
making any recommendation contained in this report and/or on this web site. Aegis discloses that from time to time, it
or its officers, employees, consultants and its related bodies corporate may have an interest in the securities, directly
or indirectly, which are the subject of these recommendations or may perform paid services for the companies that
are the subject of such recommendations. HOWEVER, UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES, HAS AEGIS BEEN
INFLUENCED, EITHER DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY, IN MAKING ANY RECOMMENDATION CONTAINED IN
THIS REPORT AND/OR ON THIS WEB SITE.
This information must be read in conjunction with the Legal Notice which can be located at
http://www.aer.com.au/disclaimer.asp

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11 Dec 2007 Bulletin

  • 1. Tuesday, 11 December 2007 Topic Page Number Overnight Summary 2 US Equities 3 US Bonds 3 Commodities 3 International Markets 4 US Economic Action 4 Australian Market Summary 5 Australian Equity Market Movers (Sector) 5 Australian Equity 5 Best / Worst Stocks 5 Australian Companies Ex-Dividend 6 Australian Equity Snapshots 7 Summary of Daily Research Reports 8 ST GEORGE BANK LIMITED SHARE PRICE AS AT 10 December 2007 Last Sale $35.35 Changes -$0.24 Total Volume 1,965,461 Web Address: www.stgeorge.privatebank.com.au www.banksa.privatebank.com.au PRIVATEBANKPORTFOLIOSERVICES DAILYBULLETIN
  • 2. Daily Bulletin 11 December 2007 Overnight Markets US stocks rallied in late afternoon trade, thanks to large cash infusions into battered financial firms and stronger than expected pending home sales. Investors are also eagerly awaiting tomorrow’s expected interest rate cut. Australian Market Summary The Australian market opened the week with a decline in the early morning trading. The All Ordinaries quickly bounced back but lost traction in the early afternoon to loose further ground and end 28 points down. Flashnotes Macquarie Office Trust (MOF) - Offical opening of 2 Market Street redevelopment Goodman Group (GMG) - GMG announces $835M five year debt facility Macarthur Coal Ltd (MCC) - Enters into a trading halt Macquarie Media Group (MMG) - MMG not to proceed with rural radio station acquisition Symbion Health Limited (SYB) - Primary snares 30% interest as Healthscope increases stake to 11% Fairfax Media (FXJ) - To retain radio stations acquired in merger with Rural Press Healthscope (HSP) - Increases interest in SYB to 11%, as Primary moves to 30% Pacific Brands (PBG) - Sells NZ Foams, Flooring and Bedding businesses Commander Communications (CDR) - New commander takes the helm Dyno Nobel (DXL) - Trading Halt SP AusNet (SPN) - Cancellation of the Alinta assets acquisition ANZ Bank (ANZ) - ANZ achieves advanced accreditation under regulatory capital changes Babcock & Brown (BNB) - Assicurazioni Generali Group invests in BNB Development Fund Nufarm (NUF) - Acquisition proposal fails to meet deadline Macquarie Group Limited (MQG) - Macquarie Bank receives Basel II accreditation from APRA Downer EDI Limited (DOW) - Appoints Geoff Knox as CEO Commonwealth Bank (CBA) - CBA achieves advanced accreditation under regulatory capital changes BHP Billiton Limited (BHP) - Kilpspruit Coal Project approved Westpac (WBC) - WBC achieves advanced accreditation under regulatory capital changes Hills Industries (HIL) - Trading halt Foreign Equities Index/Security Close Chg %Chg Dow Jones (US) 13,727 +101.5 +0.7 S&P 500 1,516 +11.3 +0.8 NASDAQ 2,719 +12.8 +0.5 FTSE 100 (UK) 6,565 +10.5 +0.2 DAX 30 (Germany) 8,033 +39.3 +0.5 CAC 40 (France) 5,751 +32.2 +0.6 Nikkei (Japan) 15,924 -32.0 -0.2 Figures as at 11/12/2007 8:30 AM AEST Australian Market Summary Index/Security Close Chg %Chg All Ordinaries 6,686 -28.0 -0.4 ASX 200 6,625 -29.6 -0.4 ASX Small Ords 4,034 -0.5 0.0 Industrials 7,013 -52.4 -0.7 Fin.-x-Prop Trusts 7,457 -26.4 -0.4 Materials 15,817 +39.9 +0.3 Cons. Staple 9,084 -109.2 -1.2 Telecom Serv. 1,659 -23.0 -1.4 10y Bond Yield 6.05 +0.04 +0.7 Figures as at 10/12/2007 4:30 PM AEST Commodities Index/Security Close Chg %Chg Units Base Metals CRB Index 343.5 +0.53 +0.2 Aluminium 2,404 -21.3 -0.9 USD/t Copper 6,766 -92.5 -1.3 USD/t Lead 2,539 -128.5 -4.8 USD/t Nickel 25,945 -1,100.0 -4.1 USD/t Tin 16,513 +23.0 +0.1 USD/t Zinc 2,369 -47.5 -2.0 USD/t Precious Metals Gold 809 +14.4 +1.8 USD/Oz Silver 14.7 +0.3 +2.2 USD/Oz Energy Oil (West Texas) 87.9 -0.4 -0.5 USD/Bar Figures as at 11/12/2007 8:30 AM AEST Currencies Index/Security Close Chg %Chg Units AUD / USD 0.885 +0.008 +0.9 $US AUD / Euro 0.601 +0.003 +0.6 $A AUD / STG 0.432 -0.002 -0.4 GBP AUD / Yen 97.9 +0.0 +0.0 Yen USD / Yen 112 +0.4 +0.3 Yen Euro / USD 1.47 +0.00 +0.1 $US Figures as at 10/12/2007 4:30 PM AEST
  • 3. Private Bank Daily Bulletin Daily Research Reports ResMed (RMD) - Model changes...we HOLD our view SP AusNet (SPN) - Cancellation of the Alinta assets acquisition Alumina Ltd (AWC) - Recommendation upgrade Aust Pharmaceutical (API) - Model changes...no change to view Babcock & Brown Infrastructure Group (BBI) - BBI pursues its port consolidation strategy Page 3
  • 4. Private Bank Daily Bulletin US Equities US stocks rallied in late afternoon trade, thanks to large cash infusions into battered financial firms and stronger than expected pending home sales. Investors are also eagerly awaiting tomorrow’s expected interest rate cut. UBS managed to secure US$11.5B in new equity to help it offset its shocking US$10B writedown due to the credit market turmoil. While investors were initially put off by the profit warning, they cheered the fact that the Swiss investment bank could still raise substantial amounts of new capital, most of which came from the Singapore government. UBS was not the only one to celebrate a cash injection. Troubled bond insurer MBIA surged over 11% after announcing that it had received a US$1B investment from buyout firm Warburg Pincus amid concerns that MBIA might be facing a liquidity crisis. Others in the sector also rose as analysts had been speculating that the downtrodden financial sector would receive more investment inflows after Abu Dhabi’s investment in Citigroup last month. JP Morgan gained over 3% on reports that the Investment Corporation of Dubai had held talks with the third largest US bank on ways to “cooperate”. Still on corporate activity, MGI Pharma soared almost 20% after it agreed to be takenover by Japanese drug company Eisai for US$3.9B in cash. Meanwhile, a surprise rise in pending home sales for October lifted the S&P Homebuilders index by over 3%. However, the National Association of Relators, which complied the report, is warning of more pain ahead as home sales are expected to fall again next year. Elsewhere, McDonald’s hit fresh record highs after the company said its same-store sales jumped 8.2%, well above expectations. Another notable gainer was Cisco Systems on news that AT&T had placed a large order for its routers to upgrade the US phone giant’s Internet backbone. Market breadth was positive with all NYSE indices finishing up. Even the Energy sector managed to overcome early weakness from the lower crude oil price. US Bonds US Treasuries extended yesterday’s losses as confidence returned to equity markets ahead of the expected 0.25% interest rate cut tomorrow. The yields on the two- and five-year notes rose to 3.17% (+0.07) and 3.54% (+0.05) respectively. The 30-year bond is providing a yield of 4.60% (+0.04). US EQUITIES US BONDS Page 4
  • 5. Private Bank Daily Bulletin Commodities Crude oil prices slipped after warm weather forecasts and lingering concerns about an economic slowdown knocked prices off early highs. Crude jumped by more than US$1 in early trade on news that shipping was halted along the fog-shrouded Houston Ship Channel and by the waning US dollar. Gold ignored oil and hit a 10-day high thanks to heavy fund buying as prices hit a technical support and the US dollar weakened. However, copper prices eased on profit taking as traders were reluctant to open fresh positions ahead of the US interest rate decision tomorrow. COPPER & NICKEL OIL GOLD Page 5
  • 6. Private Bank Daily Bulletin International Markets European stocks gained for the fourth consecutive session, hitting a five-week high, as investors bet that the worse of the sub- prime crisis might be over for the banks after UBS announced a US$10B writedown. In a move similar to Citigroup, UBS said that it would issue US$11.5B worth of new capital. Most of the fresh funds would come from the Singapore government’s investment arm and the remainder from an unnamed Middle East investor. The Swiss investment bank will also sell treasury shares and replace its 2007 cash dividend with stock dividend. These initiatives will add US$17.2B to its capital base. However, UBS said that it would record a loss for the quarter, its first in nine years. Nonetheless, investors jumped back into the stock, sending UBS up 2.4%, on the belief that all the sub-prime skeletons have now been cleared from its closet. Others in the sector also advanced, with Credit Suisse and Commerzbank adding 2.4% and 1.8% respectively. In M&A news, the world’s largest cement maker Lafarge has agreed to buy Egypt’s Orascom Cement for 8.8B euros. Lafage said that the acquisition would give it a leading position in the fast-growing markets of the Middle East and Mediterranean. Shares in the French cement company surged over 13%. Meanwhile, Dutch electronics giant Philips jumped 3.6% after two US activist hedge funds said they wanted to talk to the company about its operating performance and capital structure. Among the leading exchanges, France’s CAC led advancers with a 0.6% gain. The FTSE 100 and DAX finished 0.2% and 0.5 higher. The US dollar lost ground against the euro as traders nervously eye the massive writedown by UBS and tomorrow’s US interest rate decision. Markets have fully priced in a 0.25% cut, but the odds for a more generous 0.5% cut have fallen to 20% from over 40% a week ago. In early AEST trade, the British pound jumped 0.78% to US$2.0465 as traders took profit from their short positions, while the Australian dollar has jumped by almost one US cent, thanks to rising risk appetite and broad weakening of the US dollar. Australian Stock Prices Overnight In New York, News Corp fell by US$0.10 to US$21.88, equivalent to A$24.74, A$0.16 below its last close on the ASX. ResMed was unchanged at US$48.08, equivalent to A$5.44, A$0.04 above its last close on the ASX. In London, Rio Tinto rose 38.0 pence to £57.84, A$0.88 higher in Australian currency terms. BHP-Billiton rose 1.0 pence to £16.77, A$0.02 higher in Australian currency terms. Henderson Group Plc fell 5.25 pence to £1.42, A$0.12 lower in Australian currency terms. FTSE EURO TOP 100 $US/$A VS EUR/$A Page 6
  • 7. Private Bank Daily Bulletin US Economic Action According to the National Association of Realtors, Pending Home Sales rose 0.6% for October, versus expectations of further 1% contraction. However, the association is warning that homes sales are likely to decline in 2008, for the third consecutive year. Pending Home Sales (for October, released Tue AEST, Prior: 0.2%) Wholesale Inventories (for October, released Wed AEST, F/cast: 0.5%, Prior: 0.8%) FOMC Policy Statement (for October, released Wed AEST) Export Prices excluding agriculture (for November, released Thur AEST, Prior: 0.5%) Import Prices excluding oil (for November, released Thur AEST, Prior: 0.5%) Trade Balance (for October, released Thur AEST, F/cast: -US$57.0B, Prior: -US$56.5B) Crude Inventories (for week of 07 December, released Thur AEST, Prior: -7913K) Treasury Budget (for November, released Thur AEST, F/cast: -US$75B, Prior: -US$75.6B) Retail Sales (for November, released Fri AEST, F/cast: 0.5%, Prior: 0.2%) Retail Sales excluding auto (for November, released Fri AEST, F/cast: 0.6%, Prior: 0.2%) PPI (for November, released Fri AEST, F/cast: 1.5%, Prior: 0.1%) Core PPI (for November, released Fri AEST, F/cast: 0.2%, Prior: 0.0%) Initial Claims (for week of 08 December, released Fri AEST, F/cast: 335K, Prior: 338K) Business Inventories (for October, released Fri AEST, F/cast: 0.3%, Prior: 0.4%) CPI (for November, released Sat AEST, F/cast: 0.6%, Prior: 0.3%) Core CPI (for November, released Sat AEST, F/cast: 0.2%, Prior: 0.2%) Industrial Production (for November, released Sat AEST, F/cast: 0.1%, Prior: -0.5%) Utility Utilisation (for November, released Sat AEST, F/cast: 81.7%, Prior: 81.7%) Page 7
  • 8. Private Bank Daily Bulletin Australian Market Summary: As at 10 December 2007 Overview AUSTRALIAN EQUITIES MARKET: The Australian market opened the week with a decline in the early morning trading. The All Ordinaries quickly bounced back but lost traction in the early afternoon to loose further ground and end 28 points down. The S&P/ASX 200 ended 30 points lower with selling in Financials, Energy and Consumer Staples outweighing gains by Materials. Financials were pulled down by selling in NAB (-$0.34), ANZ (-$0.18) and Commonwealth Bank (-$0.22), while Suncorp (+$0.15) bucked the trend. Woodside Petroleum (-$1.03) and Origin (-$0.26) dragged on the Energy sector, while within Consumer Staples we saw declines in Wesfarmers (-$0.98) and Fosters (-$0.13). Meanwhile, Materials were propped up by buying in Rio Tinto (+$1.22) and Fortescue Metals (+$1.98). In market news, Healthscope (-$0.03) announced it had varied the terms of its equity swap agreement with Goldman Sachs JBWere to now have an economic interest in 10.96% of Symbion (unchanged). This interest is now large enough for Healthscope to prevent Primary Health Care (unchanged) from moving to a compulsory acquisition of Symbion. SP Ausnet (+$0.10) decided not to proceed with the proposed acquisition of the Alinta assets and businesses from its majority security holder Singapore Power International. Management confirmed it had incurred a portion of the costs of the transaction, estimated at $26M but maintained its FY08 full year distribution guidance of 11.55 cps. Shares in Nufarm (-$2.02) fell after a potential bidder ended takeover talks. AUSTRALIAN BOND MARKET: The yields on Australian government bonds rose between 8 to 12 basis points through Monday trade. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR: The Australian dollar witnessed volatile trade against the greenback but rallied in the afternoon to end higher at US$0.878. AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC STATISTICS: ABS AUSTRALIAN HOME LOAN APPROVALS: The ABS reported the number of home loans granted fell 0.7 percent in October, contrary to the expected 1% growth forecast by analysts. ANZ JOB ADVERTISEMENTS: Growth in Australian job advertisements eased to 0.7% growth in November. Market Movers SECTOR PERFORMANCE 5 BEST / WORST STOCKS Page 8
  • 9. Private Bank Daily Bulletin Companies Ex-Dividend Ex Date Sub Type Security Div Amt (cents) Franking 24-Dec-07 First Quarter Result AMP Capital China Growth Fund (AGF) 24-Dec-07 Special Event Coates Hire Limited (COA) 53 100 23-Dec-07 First Quarter Result Generator Income Trust ginha (GINHA) 21-Dec-07 Half Yearly Result Aspen Group (APZ) 3.875 0 21-Dec-07 Half Yearly Result Ale Property Group (LEP) 16.75 21-Dec-07 Half Yearly Result Macquarie Communications Infrastructure Group (MCG) 23 0 21-Dec-07 Half Yearly Result Orchard Industrial Property Fund (OIF) 21-Dec-07 Third Quarter Result CBA Perpetual Exchangeable Repurchaseable Listed Shares (PERLS III) (PCAPA) 5.5697 0 21-Dec-07 Half Yearly Result Thakral Holdings Group (THG) 2.75 0 20-Dec-07 First Quarter Result Gunns Frankable Optionally Redeemable Equity Settleable Transferable Securities (FORESTS) (GNSPA) 166.20 100 20-Dec-07 Half Yearly Result RR Australia Limited (RRA) 1.78 100 18-Dec-07 Special Event Futuris Hybrids (FCLPA) 159.85 100 18-Dec-07 Half Yearly Result PaperlinX Step-up Preference Securities (PXUPA) 452.19 0 17-Dec-07 Special Event Contango Microcap Limited (CTN) 5 100 14-Dec-07 Final Year Result Ruralco Holdings Limited (RHL) 13 100 13-Dec-07 Half Yearly Result Singapore Telecommunications Limited (SGT) 0 12-Dec-07 Special Event Crusade Global Trust No. 1 of 2006 - Class A-3 Notes (CTJ) 12-Dec-07 Half Yearly Result Envirozel Limited (EVZ) .5 100 12-Dec-07 First Quarter Result Timbercorp Orchard Trust 9% Debenture (TODHA) 2.27 0 11-Dec-07 Half Yearly Result Van Eyk Three Pillars Limited (VTP) 5 100 Page 9
  • 10. Private Bank Daily Bulletin Flashnotes MOF announced the official opening of its redevelopment at 2 Market St, Sydney. The $46M co-venture project with Allianz Australia Ltd was completed in 19 months with a return of over 30%. The redevelopment has repositioned the property as an A- grade office building and is targeting a 5 star ABGR. The property's office space is 100% occupied with a WALE of 9.2 years and an expected average annual rental growth of over 4%. The retail space is almost fully let with one tenancy remaining vacant. GMG announced it has successfully secured a new $835M (€500 million with ability to draw a further €25M) debt facility for a term of five years. The debt facility will be used to refinance a smaller expiring facility with the remainder of the funds to be used for general corporate purposes. The ranking of this facility will be equal with GMG’s existing unsecured debt. The terms, conditions and pricing are also consistent with GMG’s existing unsecured debt of similar tenor. MCC has requested that the company be placed in trading halt, pending the release of an announcement. The company will remain suspended until the release of the announcement, which is expected on or before 12 December, 2007. MMG announced that together with Fairfax Media (FXJ), it has agreed that the previously announced acquisition by MMG from FXJ of nine commercial radio licenses, will not proceed. The nine licenses serving five regional areas in South Australia and Queensland and were conditional on a number of issues including regulatory approval. FXJ will retain the radio stations in the above mentioned areas, which were acquired in merger with Rural Press. Macquarie Office Trust (MOF) - Offical opening of 2 Market Street redevelopment 10-Dec-07 14:47 Goodman Group (GMG) - GMG announces $835M five year debt facility 10-Dec-07 13:46 Macarthur Coal Ltd (MCC) - Enters into a trading halt 10-Dec-07 13:43 Macquarie Media Group (MMG) - MMG not to proceed with rural radio station acquisition 10-Dec-07 13:11 Page 10
  • 11. Private Bank Daily Bulletin HSP has varied the terms of its equity swap agreement with GS JBWere so that it now has an economic interest in 10.96% of Symbion at a notional price of $4.09 per share. This interest is now large enough for HSP to prevent Primary Health Care from moving to a compulsory acquisition of Symbion should its $4.10 cash offer for SYB gain further traction. Primary, meanwhile, has advised today that it has gained institutional acceptances for 9.72% of SYB, bringing its total interest in SYB to 29.73%. FXJ announced that together with Macquarie Media Group (MMG), it has agreed that the previously announced acquisition by MMG from Fairfax Media of nine commercial radio licenses, will not proceed. The nine licenses serving five regional areas in South Australia and Queensland and were conditional on a number of issues including regulatory approval. FXJ will retain the radio stations in the above mentioned areas, which were acquired in merger with Rural Press. HSP has varied the terms of its equity swap agreement with GS JBWere so that it now has an economic interest in 10.96% of Symbion at a notional price of $4.09 per share. This interest is now large enough for HSP to prevent Primary Health Care from moving to a compulsory acquisition of Symbion should its $4.10 cash offer for SYB gain further traction. Primary, meanwhile, has advised today that it has gained institutional acceptances for 9.72% of SYB, bringing its total interest in SYB to 29.73%. PBG announced it has entered into a conditional agreement to sell its New Zealand Foams, Flooring and Bedding businesses to Vita New Zealand Limited. Final details will be released once approvals are given and the transaction is complete. The parties anticipate that the transaction will completed early in 2008. CDR has announced the appointment of Ms Amanda Lacaze as Managing Director and CEO from 7 January 2008. Mr Coote tendered his resignation as CEO and director today. The CDR chairman stated that CDR will continue to look at options to recapitalise and will not contemplate any break up of its core elements. Ms Lacaze has over 20 years experience in management and marketing with key roles within Telstra, Orion Telecom and AOL|7. Shane Allan also joins the company as a non-executive director. Symbion Health Limited (SYB) - Primary snares 30% interest as Healthscope increases stake to 11% 10-Dec-07 13:00 Fairfax Media (FXJ) - To retain radio stations acquired in merger with Rural Press 10-Dec-07 12:59 Healthscope (HSP) - Increases interest in SYB to 11%, as Primary moves to 30% 10-Dec-07 12:46 Pacific Brands (PBG) - Sells NZ Foams, Flooring and Bedding businesses 10-Dec-07 12:43 Commander Communications (CDR) - New commander takes the helm 10-Dec-07 12:32 Page 11
  • 12. Private Bank Daily Bulletin DXL has been placed in a trading halt at the request of the company. The securities will remain in pre-open until the earlier of the commencement of trading on Wednesday, 12 December 2007 or when the announcement is released to the market. DXL has not disclosed the reason behind the trading halt. SPN has decided not to proceed with the proposed acquisition of the Alinta assets and businesses from its majority securityholder Singapore Power International Pte Ltd. It is due to the ongoing deterioration in capital markets, in particular debt capital markets after the release of the Explanatory Memorandum. SPN has incurred a portion of the costs of the transaction, estimated at approximately $26M. SPN will maintain its FY08 full year distribution guidance of 11.55 cps. ANZ advised that it has received advanced accreditation under the new Basel Capital Accord (i.e. Basel II) from the prudential regulator, APRA. The net effect is that ANZ expects some reduction in the minimum allowable regulatory capital requirements, however the net impact is still being finalised. APRA has placed a cap of 10% in 2008 and 2009 on any reduction in capital from the Basel II changes. The approval is effective from 1 Jan 08. BNB announced the placement of two-thirds of the equity capital in BNB Development Fund (BBDF) to Assicurazioni Generali group of Italy. BBDF is a 9 year closed end Italian real estate investment fund established and managed by BBSGR, the licensed Italian asset management company of BNB. Its initial portfolio comprises three developments in Northern Italy with a value in excess of €300M. BNB through BBSGR will retain management responsibility over the Fund following the sell down. Dyno Nobel (DXL) - Trading Halt 10-Dec-07 11:57 SP AusNet (SPN) - Cancellation of the Alinta assets acquisition 10-Dec-07 11:47 ANZ Bank (ANZ) - ANZ achieves advanced accreditation under regulatory capital changes 10-Dec-07 11:25 Babcock & Brown (BNB) - Assicurazioni Generali Group invests in BNB Development Fund 10-Dec-07 11:05 Page 12
  • 13. Private Bank Daily Bulletin On the 5-Nov-07, an acquisition proposal was put forward by China National Chemical Corp, The Blackstone Group and Fox Paine Management III to acquire NUF. NUF have advised today that there has been no formalised proposal received and that discussions between NUF and the consortium have ceased. Management stated that NUF will continue with its expansion plans in the context of a very positive environment and future outlook for companies involved in agricultural industries. MQG announced that Macquarie Bank Ltd (MBL) has received accreditation from the Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority (APRA) to adopt the advanced approach under Basel II from credit risk and operational risk. MQG does not expect any material reduction in MBL’s regulatory capital as a result of the implementation of Basel II. DOW has announced the appointment of Mr Geoff Knox as its CEO. He will commence duties on 1 February 2008 and succeeds Brent Waldron, who was appointed on an interim basis. Prior to accepting the CEO role with DOW, Mr Knox was Global executive director, Hatchcos Holdings; Executive Chairman, Hatch Associates; and Global Managing Director, Hatch Infrastructure. He was also the former President of BHP Engineering and VP of BHP Project Management. From 1 Jan 08 CBA has received advanced accreditation under the new Basel Capital Accord (i.e. Basel II) from the prudential regulator, APRA. CBA expects its total regulatory capital ratio to rise above 10%, however it does not anticipate a material change in capital management until the net impact is finalised. APRA has placed a cap of 10% in 2008 and 2009 on any reduction in capital from the Basel II changes. CBA also noted it is considering applying for Financial Holding Company status. BHP has approved the Kilpspruit Energy Coal Project in South Africa. The Kilpspruit mine currently has a capacity of 4.8Mtpa, this will be expanded to 8Mtpa at a cost of US$450M. The project includes the development of a 16Mtpa coal processing plant called Phola Coal, a 50:50 JV with Anglo Coal. The plant will process 8Mtpa from each JV partner. The increased production is expected to commence in 2H CY09. The mine is expected to have a 20 year life with current reserves. WBC advised that it has received advanced accreditation under the new Basel Capital Accord (i.e. Basel II) from the prudential regulator, APRA. The net effect is that WBC expects to see an increase in its regulatory capital ratios, though the net impact is still being finalised. APRA has placed a cap of 10% in 2008 and 2009 on any reduction in capital from the Basel II changes. The approval is effective from 1 Jan 08. HIL has been placed in a pre-open trading halt. HIL securities will remain in pre-open until 12 Dec 07. Management has requested this halt while capital is raised to fund the recent proposed acquisition of BSA, as well as further growth. The funding is expected to take the form of a $50M placement and a $50M Share Purchase Plan. Further details will be released to the market in due course. Nufarm (NUF) - Acquisition proposal fails to meet deadline 10-Dec-07 11:01 Macquarie Group Limited (MQG) - Macquarie Bank receives Basel II accreditation from APRA 10-Dec-07 10:52 Downer EDI Limited (DOW) - Appoints Geoff Knox as CEO 10-Dec-07 10:15 Commonwealth Bank (CBA) - CBA achieves advanced accreditation under regulatory capital changes 10-Dec-07 09:49 BHP Billiton Limited (BHP) - Kilpspruit Coal Project approved 10-Dec-07 09:32 Westpac (WBC) - WBC achieves advanced accreditation under regulatory capital changes 10-Dec-07 09:19 Hills Industries (HIL) - Trading halt 10-Dec-07 09:00 Page 13
  • 14. Private Bank Daily Bulletin Daily Research Reports Following RMD's recent recovery in share price, we have reviewed our modelling assumptions. Given the early stage and potential size of RMD's sleep disordered breathing market, we have assigned a higher growth rate than the 3% GDP level for a further 10 years beyond the standard 10-year forecast period. As a result of making this adjustment to our perpetuity value, our 12-month target price for RMD has increased by 17%. We remain neutral on RMD on both 12-month and 3-year investment horizons. SPN has decided not to proceed with the proposed acquisition of the Alinta assets and businesses from its majority security holder, Singapore Power International Pte Ltd (SPI). This is due to the ongoing deterioration in support from capital markets, in particular debt capital markets, after the release of the Explanatory Memorandum. SPN has incurred a portion of the costs of the transaction, estimated at approximately $26M. SPN will maintain its FY08 full-year distribution guidance of 11.55cps. We have reviewed our AWC model in light of its recent share price decline, and we consider it necessary to change our recommendation. In light of the recent fall in share price, we have reviewed our model. We have increased expected working capital requirements, which increased forecast interest expense and lowered forecast earnings. We also note that API's recent ejection from the ASX200 index is likely to be associated with declining institutional interest in the stock, and therefore weaker investor sentiment to the stock going forward. We retain our neutral view on 12-month and long-term investment horizons. BBI announced that it has acquired interests in three port operators located in Germany, Belgium and the US. BBI subsidiary Benelux Port Holdings has acquired 43% of the Westerlund Group (Belgium) with negotiations on the remaining 57% still underway. BBI acquired 50% of Seehafen Rostock Umschlagsgesellchaft GmbH (Germany) with pre-emptive rights over the remaining 50%. Lastly, BBI has entered an agreement to acquire 50% of ICS Logistics Inc (US). The acquisitions have an EV of ~A$616.5M. ResMed (RMD) - Model changes...we HOLD our view SP AusNet (SPN) - Cancellation of the Alinta assets acquisition Alumina Ltd (AWC) - Recommendation upgrade Aust Pharmaceutical (API) - Model changes...no change to view Babcock & Brown Infrastructure Group (BBI) - BBI pursues its port consolidation strategy Page 14
  • 15. Health Care John Kessell ASX: RMD Bloomberg: RMD AU Reuters: RMD.AX 10 December 2007 ResMed Model changes...we HOLD our view Event Following RMD's recent recovery in share price, we have reviewed our modelling assumptions. Our standard model methodology involves 10 years of forecast cash flows followed by a perpetuity value based on an assumption that earnings growth in the long term revert to an average GDP growth rate of 3%. Given the early stage and potential size of RMD's sleep disordered breathing market, we have modelled out a higher growth rate than the 3% GDP level for a further 10 years beyond the standard 10-year forecast period. By the end of this period, we drop the growth rate to 3%. Implications As a result of making this adjustment to our perpetuity value, our 12- month target price for RMD has increased by 17% to $5.93. Our basic recommendation on RMD remains HOLD for both 12-month and 3-year investment horizons. Investment Opinion ResMed remains the global leader in the Sleep Disordered Breathing (SDB) market, although CY07's product recall and loss of sales momentum to competitor Respironics is concerning. Management is experienced and stable. The SDB market is in its infancy, with studies increasingly showing links of SDB to serious medical conditions such as heart disease and diabetes. Our long-term view is neutral. We continue to like RMD's long-term market opportunity in sleep disordered breathing, as well as its high quality product suite. However, we would like to see a reversal of the downward trend in sales growth and margins, and consider earnings risks to be to the downside. At current prices, RMD appears fairly valued. Key Information Price Performance Market Statistics Key Assumptions Share Price $5.40 12 month view HOLD 12 month target return (%) 9.8 12 month target price $5.93 Long Term View HOLD Long Term Target Return (% pa) 11.3 3 year target price n/a Market Cap (M) $4,226 Shares (M) 782.5 % of Market 0.20 % of Sector 7.23 12 Month Range $4.34 - $7.04 Company Risk Share Price Risk Ethical rating Performance against indices (%) 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months RMD 6.1 3.8 (14.7) Sector 5.1 14.8 32.7 Market 7.7 6.8 23.5 Beta: 1.1 Market risk premium (%): 5.5 Risk free rate (%): 6.1 WACC (%): 11.3 Forecast cashflow (years): 10 Residual value % of total valuation: 61.2 Nominal terminal growth rate (%): 3.0 Earnings Summary 1 NPAT and EPS are adjusted by removing non-recurring items. All the above statistics are derived from normalised earnings. Yr to Jun NPAT Rep $M NPAT1 Adj $M EPS1 c EPS chg % PER x PER rel All Ords x PER rel Sector x DPS c Yield % Franking % ROE % 2006A 119.5 129.9 17.3 39.6 31.2 1.4 0.8 0.0 0.0 0 17.0 2007A 83.2 139.2 18.3 5.5 29.6 1.5 1.0 0.0 0.0 0 13.4 2008F 135.3 140.5 18.3 0.2 29.5 1.9 1.2 0.0 0.0 0 12.5 2009F 170.8 176.1 22.7 23.9 23.8 1.7 1.1 0.0 0.0 0 13.2
  • 16. ResMed Year end Jun. All figures in A$M Notes: 1. The 12M recommendation rates stocks on a 12 month, absolute basis based on the total return (capital and dividends). BUY denotes an expectation of 15% or more total return; SELL 5% or less; HOLD within the range of 5-15%. ACCEPT OFFER relates to a situation where there is a public offer for shares and our view is to accept that offer. 2. The Long Term Recommendation rates stocks on a long term, absolute basis based on the average total return per annum (capital and dividends). BUY denotes a long term expectation of 1% or more above the cost of equity (also known as the required return, which measures the the return required by investors given the company's risk); HOLD within the range of 1% above and 3% below the cost of equity; SELL more than 3% below the cost of equity but above a total forecast annual return for the stock of 0%; AVOID denotes a long term expectation of a total annual return below 0%. ACCEPT OFFER relates to a situation where there is a public offer for shares and our view is to accept that offer. 12M Recommendation1: HOLD 12M Target: $5.93 Long Term Recommendation 2: HOLD Long Term Target Return: 11.3% pa Profit & loss summary 2006A 2007A 2008F 2009F Operating revenue 821.6 883.6 945.0 1,127.4 Invest & other income 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 EBITDA 223.4 237.1 229.9 276.3 Depreciation/Amort (35.9) (39.8) (44.2) (47.7) EBIT 187.5 197.3 185.8 228.7 Net Interest 1.7 6.0 16.6 26.6 Pre-tax profit 189.2 203.3 202.4 255.3 Tax expense (59.3) (64.1) (61.9) (79.1) Minorities/Assoc./Prefs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 NPAT 129.9 139.2 140.5 176.1 Non recurring items (4.8) (50.3) 0.0 0.0 Reported profit 119.5 83.2 135.3 170.8 NPAT add Goodwill & Pref 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Adjusted profit 129.9 139.2 140.5 176.1 Cashflow summary 2006A 2007A 2008F 2009F EBITDA 223.4 237.1 229.9 276.3 Working capital changes (55.8) (85.2) (25.7) (58.4) Interest and tax (66.8) (54.5) (19.6) (44.4) Other operating items 25.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 Operating cashflow 126.4 97.4 184.6 173.6 Required capex (138.8) (32.1) (31.1) (33.6) Maintainable cashflow (12.4) 65.3 153.4 140.0 Dividends 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Acq/Disp (14.2) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other investing items (8.9) (71.8) 0.0 0.0 Free cashflow (35.4) (6.5) 153.4 140.0 Equity 59.4 0.0 0.0 67.2 Debt inc/(red'n) 71.6 (29.7) (153.4) (207.2) Balance sheet 2006A 2007A 2008F 2009F Cash & deposits 295.4 334.2 371.8 593.0 Inventories 156.3 189.2 199.2 239.0 Trade debtors 185.9 202.0 204.6 245.5 Other curr assets 49.0 77.8 72.2 77.3 Total current assets 686.5 803.2 847.8 1,154.9 Prop., plant & equip. 330.1 373.7 342.6 340.2 Non-curr intangibles 329.0 304.9 284.9 289.3 Non-curr investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other non-curr assets 9.5 23.2 22.1 22.9 Total assets 1,355.1 1,505.0 1,497.4 1,807.2 Trade creditors 60.6 63.8 64.7 77.7 Curr borrowings 6.6 34.1 32.5 33.6 Other curr liabilities 106.4 144.0 162.8 176.5 Total current liab. 173.6 241.9 260.0 287.7 Borrowings 156.3 105.5 0.0 0.0 Other non-curr liabilities 32.1 37.0 35.2 36.4 Total liabilities 362.0 384.4 295.2 324.2 Minorities/Convertibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Shareholders equity 993.1 1,120.6 1,202.2 1,483.0 Ratio analysis 2006A 2007A 2008F 2009F Revenue growth (%) 48.4 7.5 7.0 19.3 EBITDA growth (%) 38.3 6.1 (3.0) 20.2 EPS growth (%) 39.6 5.5 0.2 23.9 EBITDA/Sales margin (%) 27.2 26.8 24.3 24.5 EBIT/Sales margin (%) 22.8 22.3 19.7 20.3 Tax rate (%) 31.3 31.6 30.6 31.0 Net debt/equity (%) (13.3) (17.4) (28.2) (37.7) Net debt/net debt + equity (%) (15.4) (21.0) (39.3) (60.6) Net interest cover (x) n/a n/a n/a n/a Payout ratio (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Capex to deprec'n (%) 387.7 80.6 70.5 70.5 NTA per share ($) 0.88 1.09 1.19 1.50 ROA (%) 15.9 14.1 12.9 13.9 ROE (%) 17.0 13.4 12.5 13.2 Multiple analysis 2006A 2007A 2008F 2009F Market cap (M) 4,226 Net debt ($M) (199.6) Peripheral assets ($M) (0.0) Enterprise value ($M) 4,026.1 EV/EBIT (x) 21.5 20.4 21.7 17.6 EV/EBITDA (x) 18.0 17.0 17.5 14.6 EV/EBITDA All Ind (x) 10.3 9.2 8.2 7.6 EV/EBITDA rel All Ind (x) 1.8 1.8 2.1 1.9 P/E (x) 31.2 29.6 29.5 23.8 P/E rel All Ind (x) 1.3 1.5 1.8 1.6 P/E rel All Ind ex banks (x) 1.2 1.5 1.8 1.6 P/E sector (x) 36.8 30.1 25.6 21.6 P/E rel sector (x) 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.1 Assumptions 2006A 2007A 2008F 2009F US$/A$ ($) 0.74 0.79 0.87 0.86 Euro/A$ ($) 0.61 0.60 0.59 0.58 Inflation (%) 3.20 3.09 2.47 2.50 Notes To Accounts All P&L items (except Reported profit) now exclude Goodwill Amortisation as per the IFRS requirements. Note: RMD reports in USD but all data are translated into AUD in this table. Copyright © 2000 - 2007 Aegis Equities Holdings Pty Limited. All rights reserved. This information must be read in conjunction with the Legal Notice which can be located at http://www.aegis.com.au/public/disclaimer.aspx.
  • 17. Utilities Wilbur Tong ASX: SPN Bloomberg: SPN AU Reuters: SPN.AX 10 December 2007 SP AusNet Cancellation of the Alinta assets acquisition Event SPN has decided not to proceed with the proposed acquisition of the Alinta assets and businesses from its majority security holder, Singapore Power International Pte Ltd (SPI). SPN's decision is due to the ongoing deterioration in support from capital markets, in particular the debt capital markets, after the release of the Explanatory Memorandum. SPN has incurred a portion of the costs of the transaction, estimated at approximately $26M. SPN will maintain its FY08 full-year distribution guidance of 11.55cps. Implications Since the announcement of the potential acquisition of Alinta assets on 20 September 2007, the market has reacted unfavourably to the news. Our recommendation to security holders in our last report to vote against the acquisition is consistent with the market view that the transaction is not value-accretive to SPN. The decision by SPN not to proceed with the proposed acquisition from its parent, SPI, will improve the company's outlook in our view. We believe SPN's 12-month price target will revert back to our original forecast of $1.43, based on its existing businesses, after allowing for adjustment of the incurred transaction costs. In our opinion, the market has been sold down since the pre-announcement high at $1.39. We are reverting both our short- and long-term recommendations from Hold back to BUY. Investment Opinion We view SPN as a solid income-type investment. We like SPN's portfolio of strong cash flow Victorian-based energy transmission and distribution assets, which offer scope for moderate electricity and gas distribution volume growth. The extension into other business streams is clearly within SPN's strategy as it identified an interest in non- regulated revenue streams. SPN is backed by Singapore Power Ltd, which has significant experience in both transmission and distribution operations. SPN's immediate outlook is for steady cash flow generation derived from its utility assets. While it will report negative free cash flow, there is sufficient debt capacity to support CPI-like growth in the distributions. We feel SPN is a stable reliable infrastructure player providing a good dividend yield. Key Information Price Performance Market Statistics Key Assumptions Share Price $1.29 12 month view BUY 12 month target return (%) 20.5 12 month target price $1.43 Long Term View BUY Long Term Target Return (% pa) 13.6 3 year target price n/a Market Cap (M) $2,689 Shares (M) 2,092.7 % of Market 0.13 % of Sector 7.63 12 Month Range $1.16 - $1.55 Company Risk Share Price Risk Ethical rating Performance against indices (%) 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months SPN (7.6) (7.2) (4.1) Sector (4.8) (8.1) 3.9 Market 7.7 6.8 23.5 Beta: 0.8 Market risk premium (%): 5.5 Risk free rate (%): 6.1 WACC (%): 7.7 Forecast cashflow (years): 10 Residual value % of total valuation: 68.9 Nominal terminal growth rate (%): 3.0 Earnings Summary 1 NPAT and EPS are adjusted by removing non-recurring items. All the above statistics are derived from normalised earnings. Yr to Mar NPAT Rep $M NPAT1 Adj $M EPS1 c EPS chg % PER x PER rel All Ords x PER rel Sector x DPS c Yield % Franking % Deferred Tax % 2006A 367.6 136.9 6.5 n/a 19.6 0.9 0.6 3.3 2.5 5 68 2007A 178.5 161.5 7.7 18.0 16.7 0.9 0.7 11.3 8.8 9 64 2008F 158.6 176.8 8.4 9.5 15.2 1.0 0.8 11.6 9.0 9 60 2009F 158.4 158.4 7.6 (10.4) 17.0 1.2 1.0 11.8 9.2 9 59
  • 18. SP AusNet Year end Mar. All figures in A$M Notes: 1. The 12M recommendation rates stocks on a 12 month, absolute basis based on the total return (capital and dividends). BUY denotes an expectation of 15% or more total return; SELL 5% or less; HOLD within the range of 5-15%. ACCEPT OFFER relates to a situation where there is a public offer for shares and our view is to accept that offer. 2. The Long Term Recommendation rates stocks on a long term, absolute basis based on the average total return per annum (capital and dividends). BUY denotes a long term expectation of 1% or more above the cost of equity (also known as the required return, which measures the the return required by investors given the company's risk); HOLD within the range of 1% above and 3% below the cost of equity; SELL more than 3% below the cost of equity but above a total forecast annual return for the stock of 0%; AVOID denotes a long term expectation of a total annual return below 0%. ACCEPT OFFER relates to a situation where there is a public offer for shares and our view is to accept that offer. 12M Recommendation1: BUY 12M Target: $1.43 Long Term Recommendation 2: BUY Long Term Target Return: 13.6% pa Profit & loss summary 2006A 2007A 2008F 2009F Operating revenue 737.5 1,019.3 1,069.9 1,093.7 Invest & other income 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 EBITDA 492.2 624.7 675.9 710.1 Depreciation/Amort (148.6) (200.0) (209.7) (232.9) EBIT 343.6 424.7 466.2 477.1 Net Interest (166.1) (219.2) (238.8) (273.6) Pre-tax profit 177.5 205.5 227.4 203.5 Tax expense (40.6) (44.0) (50.6) (45.1) Minorities/Assoc./Prefs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 NPAT 136.9 161.5 176.8 158.4 Non recurring items 230.7 17.1 (18.2) 0.0 Reported profit 367.6 178.5 158.6 158.4 NPAT add Goodwill & Pref 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Adjusted profit 136.9 161.5 176.8 158.4 Cashflow summary 2006A 2007A 2008F 2009F EBITDA 492.2 624.7 675.9 710.1 Working capital changes 112.6 16.1 13.0 0.4 Interest and tax (175.2) (251.8) (298.4) (310.0) Other operating items (251.8) 1.4 (2.8) 0.7 Operating cashflow 177.9 390.4 387.7 401.1 Required capex (294.8) (320.4) (327.3) (300.5) Maintainable cashflow (117.0) 70.0 60.4 100.6 Dividends 0.0 (185.9) (238.8) (244.8) Acq/Disp 2,046.1 (80.0) 0.4 0.0 Other investing items (0.6) 2.3 (26.0) 0.0 Free cashflow 1,928.6 (193.6) (204.0) (144.1) Equity 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Debt inc/(red'n) (1,974.8) 194.0 203.8 144.1 Balance sheet 2006A 2007A 2008F 2009F Cash & deposits 8.7 9.1 9.0 9.0 Inventories 6.5 5.9 6.2 6.2 Trade debtors 132.0 140.9 135.7 137.3 Other curr assets 194.6 34.2 186.7 186.7 Total current assets 341.8 190.1 337.6 339.2 Prop., plant & equip. 6,227.1 6,312.2 6,437.0 6,504.6 Non-curr intangibles 354.5 354.5 354.5 354.5 Non-curr investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other non-curr assets 23.7 75.5 87.1 87.1 Total assets 6,947.0 6,932.3 7,216.1 7,285.4 Trade creditors 140.3 165.7 173.8 175.8 Curr borrowings 644.4 619.9 619.9 619.9 Other curr liabilities 196.4 95.3 34.5 43.8 Total current liab. 981.2 880.9 828.2 839.5 Borrowings 2,870.4 2,940.3 3,021.5 3,165.6 Other non-curr liabilities 516.9 457.7 781.0 781.2 Total liabilities 4,368.4 4,278.9 4,630.7 4,786.3 Minorities/Convertibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Shareholders equity 2,581.6 2,652.6 2,585.4 2,499.1 Ratio analysis 2006A 2007A 2008F 2009F Revenue growth (%) 109.6 38.2 5.0 2.2 EBITDA growth (%) 104.9 26.9 8.2 5.1 EPS growth (%) n/a 18.0 9.5 (10.4) EBITDA/Sales margin (%) 66.7 61.3 63.2 64.9 EBIT/Sales margin (%) 46.6 41.7 43.6 43.6 Tax rate (%) 22.9 21.4 22.3 22.2 Net debt/equity (%) 135.8 133.9 140.5 151.1 Net debt/net debt + equity (%) 57.6 57.2 58.4 60.2 Net interest cover (x) 2.1 1.9 2.0 1.7 Payout ratio (%) 49.7 146.0 136.8 156.4 Capex to deprec'n (%) 198.4 160.2 156.1 129.0 NTA per share ($) 1.06 1.10 1.07 1.02 ROA (%) 5.0 6.0 6.5 6.6 ROE (%) 7.3 6.1 6.7 6.2 Multiple analysis 2006A 2007A 2008F 2009F Market cap (M) 2,689 Net debt ($M) 3,632.4 Peripheral assets ($M) (0.0) Enterprise value ($M) 6,321.5 EV/EBIT (x) 18.4 14.9 13.6 13.2 EV/EBITDA (x) 12.8 10.1 9.4 8.9 EV/EBITDA All Ind (x) 10.3 9.2 8.2 7.6 EV/EBITDA rel All Ind (x) 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 P/E (x) 19.6 16.7 15.2 17.0 P/E rel All Ind (x) 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.1 P/E rel All Ind ex banks (x) 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.1 P/E sector (x) 30.7 25.1 19.3 16.8 P/E rel sector (x) 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 Assumptions 2006A 2007A 2008F 2009F GDP growth (%) 4.17 2.41 2.87 3.58 Interest Rates (%) 5.65 6.19 6.85 7.50 Inflation (%) 2.82 3.56 2.36 2.50 Copyright © 2000 - 2007 Aegis Equities Holdings Pty Limited. All rights reserved. This information must be read in conjunction with the Legal Notice which can be located at http://www.aegis.com.au/public/disclaimer.aspx.
  • 19. Materials Gaius King ASX: AWC Bloomberg: AWC AU Reuters: AWC.AX 10 December 2007 Alumina Ltd Recommendation upgrade Event We have reviewed our AWC model in light of its recent share price decline, and we consider it necessary to change our recommendation. Implications Given recent turmoil in global markets and negative sentiment associated with the general slowdown expected in the US economy, especially in the area of housing, it is not surprising that aluminium consumption has declined 6% in the US. Aluminium consumption growth elsewhere flourished, from a modest 3% increase in Europe to 45% increase in Chinese demand. Although we expect aluminium prices to moderate by 7% in 2008, aluminium demand is expected to double by 2020. To reach this target, annual production growth would have to increase at a global compound rate of 6% per annum over the next 12 years. At its current share price, we have adopted a positive view on AWC, forecasting a total 12-month return of 22% on the stock. Hence, we are changing our 12-month recommendation for AWC from Hold to BUY. The current difference between our IRR and its cost of equity is 1.74%. Therefore, we are also changing our long-term recommendation on AWC from Hold to BUY. Investment Opinion AWC is a 40% partner in Alcoa World Alumina & Chemicals (AWAC), a globally dominant, low-cost bauxite mining and alumina refining company. Earnings tend to be cyclical, with the alumina price linked through long-term contracts to the LME aluminium price, typically in the 12.5%–13.0% range; this increases in periods of high demand. Alcoa may decide at some stage to bid for Alumina and move to 100% of AWAC. The aluminium market is in the midst of flux, with rapid growth in production from China, which now accounts for 33% of the global output. This is closely matched with China's growth in consumption, estimated by AWC to be above 20% per annum. We anticipate that AWC's strong business fundamentals will continue into 2008. Increased productive capacity coming on-stream and a relatively strong aluminium market will result in solid earnings. Key Information Price Performance Market Statistics Key Assumptions Share Price $6.48 12 month view BUY 12 month target return (%) 21.3 12 month target price $7.55 Long Term View BUY Long Term Target Return (% pa) 16.1 3 year target price n/a Market Cap (M) $7,337 Shares (M) 1,129 % of Market 0.36 % of Sector 1.05 12 Month Range $5.90 - $8.88 Company Risk Share Price Risk Ethical rating Performance against indices (%) 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months AWC (4.7) (18.5) 0.2 Sector 15.9 23.4 49.0 Market 8.1 7.3 24.0 Beta: 1.5 Market risk premium (%): 5.5 Risk free rate (%): 6.1 WACC (%): 11.7 Forecast cashflow (years): 10 Residual value % of total valuation: 51.9 Nominal terminal growth rate (%): 3.0 Earnings Summary 1 NPAT and EPS are adjusted by removing non-recurring items. All the above statistics are derived from normalised earnings. Yr to Dec NPAT Rep $M NPAT1 Adj $M EPS1 c EPS chg % PER x PER rel All Ords x PER rel Sector x DPS c Yield % Franking % ROE % 2006A 569 511 43.8 36.7 14.8 0.7 0.8 22.0 3.4 100 34.5 2007F 469 469 41.5 (5.2) 15.6 0.8 0.9 20.0 3.1 100 27.9 2008F 517 517 45.8 10.3 14.2 0.9 1.0 31.0 4.8 100 28.2 2009F 553 553 49.0 6.9 13.2 0.9 1.1 30.5 4.7 100 27.1
  • 20. Alumina Ltd Year end Dec. All figures in A$M Notes: 1. The 12M recommendation rates stocks on a 12 month, absolute basis based on the total return (capital and dividends). BUY denotes an expectation of 15% or more total return; SELL 5% or less; HOLD within the range of 5-15%. ACCEPT OFFER relates to a situation where there is a public offer for shares and our view is to accept that offer. 2. The Long Term Recommendation rates stocks on a long term, absolute basis based on the average total return per annum (capital and dividends). BUY denotes a long term expectation of 1% or more above the cost of equity (also known as the required return, which measures the the return required by investors given the company's risk); HOLD within the range of 1% above and 3% below the cost of equity; SELL more than 3% below the cost of equity but above a total forecast annual return for the stock of 0%; AVOID denotes a long term expectation of a total annual return below 0%. ACCEPT OFFER relates to a situation where there is a public offer for shares and our view is to accept that offer. 12M Recommendation1: BUY 12M Target: $7.55 Long Term Recommendation 2: BUY Long Term Target Return: 16.1% pa Profit & loss summary 2006A 2007F 2008F 2009F Operating revenue 3,048 2,819 3,007 3,072 Invest & other income (2) 1 (14) (15) EBITDA 928 852 946 1,007 Depreciation/Amort (115) (126) (138) (152) EBIT 812 726 808 855 Net Interest (14) (45) (69) (66) Pre-tax profit 798 681 738 790 Tax expense (287) (213) (222) (237) Minorities/Assoc./Prefs 0 0 0 0 NPAT 511 469 517 553 Non recurring items 58 0 0 0 Reported profit 569 469 517 553 NPAT add Goodwill & Pref 0 0 0 0 Adjusted profit 511 469 517 553 Cashflow summary 2006A 2007F 2008F 2009F EBITDA 928 852 946 1,007 Working capital changes (76) (332) (29) (6) Interest and tax (16) (326) (255) (296) Other operating items (169) 293 44 20 Operating cashflow 667 488 705 726 Required capex (259) (77) (86) (98) Maintainable cashflow 408 411 619 628 Dividends (233) (276) (265) (350) Acq/Disp 0 (614) (384) (92) Other investing items 16 0 0 0 Free cashflow 190 (479) (30) 186 Equity 10 (250) 0 0 Debt inc/(red'n) 139 589 30 (186) Balance sheet 2006A 2007F 2008F 2009F Cash & deposits 169 0 0 0 Inventories 0 109 119 120 Trade debtors 0 222 242 246 Other curr assets 2 2 2 2 Total current assets 171 332 363 368 Prop., plant & equip. 0 360 677 700 Non-curr intangibles 0 0 0 0 Non-curr investments 2,186 2,402 2,402 2,402 Other non-curr assets 0 0 0 0 Total assets 2,358 3,094 3,442 3,471 Trade creditors 13 11 12 12 Curr borrowings 380 576 581 589 Other curr liabilities 2 109 159 169 Total current liab. 395 696 752 770 Borrowings 208 546 571 377 Other non-curr liabilities 0 162 177 180 Total liabilities 603 1,405 1,501 1,327 Minorities/Convertibles 0 0 0 0 Shareholders equity 1,755 1,690 1,941 2,144 Ratio analysis 2006A 2007F 2008F 2009F Revenue growth (%) 22.9 (7.5) 6.7 2.1 EBITDA growth (%) 42.0 (8.1) 11.0 6.5 EPS growth (%) 36.7 (5.2) 10.3 6.9 EBITDA/Sales margin (%) 30.4 30.2 31.4 32.8 EBIT/Sales margin (%) 26.6 25.8 26.8 27.8 Tax rate (%) 36.0 31.2 30.0 30.0 Net debt/equity (%) 23.9 66.4 59.3 45.0 Net debt/net debt + equity (%) 19.3 39.9 37.2 31.1 Net interest cover (x) 56.8 16.2 11.7 13.0 Payout ratio (%) 50.3 48.2 67.7 62.3 Capex to deprec'n (%) 224.7 60.8 62.2 64.6 NTA per share ($) 1.55 1.50 1.72 1.90 ROA (%) 29.8 28.2 24.7 24.8 ROE (%) 34.5 27.9 28.2 27.1 Multiple analysis 2006A 2007F 2008F 2009F Market cap (M) 7,337 Net debt ($M) 768 Peripheral assets ($M) 0 Enterprise value ($M) 8,105 EV/EBIT (x) 10.0 11.4 10.0 9.5 EV/EBITDA (x) 8.7 9.7 8.6 8.0 EV/EBITDA All Ind (x) 10.3 9.3 8.2 7.6 EV/EBITDA rel All Ind (x) 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.1 P/E (x) 14.8 15.6 14.2 13.2 P/E rel All Ind (x) 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 P/E rel All Ind ex banks (x) 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 P/E sector (x) 19.1 17.6 14.0 11.9 P/E rel sector (x) 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 Assumptions 2006A 2007F 2008F 2009F US$/A$ ($) 0.75 0.84 0.87 0.84 Aluminium (US$/lb) 1.18 1.21 1.13 1.05 GDP growth (%) 2.66 2.63 3.47 3.49 Copyright © 2000 - 2007 Aegis Equities Holdings Pty Limited. All rights reserved. This information must be read in conjunction with the Legal Notice which can be located at http://www.aegis.com.au/public/disclaimer.aspx.
  • 21. Alumina Ltd Aluminium Supply Unlike many other commodities, Aluminium has not displayed the spectacular price increases (see Figure 2). We expect that average aluminium price will drop by 7.2% to $2,481/t next year from an expected $2,673/t this year. Production is expected to exceed consumption for a second successive year, leading to a build in stocks to around 5.4 weeks’ consumption by the end of 2008 from 4.6 weeks’ consumption at the end of this year. TABLE 2: ALUMINIUM PRODUCTION, CONSUMPTION AND FORECAST 2008 PRICE Source: ABARE/Aegis Equities * CY2007 over CY2008 FIGURE 2: ALUMINIUM LME STOCKPILE AND PRICE Source: Bloomberg/Aegis Equities ABARE expects average alumina prices to fall by 10% to an average US$296/t in 2008 from around $330/t this year. This year’s expected average already represents a 24% reduction from 2006 prices. Despite the strong increase in global aluminium production this year - and thus in alumina consumption - alumina production growth in the likes of China, Australia, Brazil and Russia is expected to exceed consumption growth in the short-term. According to the International Aluminium Institute, global aluminium production has increased a staggering 12.7% on a pcp basis, primarily from China, as well as contributions from Argentina, Brazil, Iceland, India, Iran, Russia and the United Arab Emirates. This production growth is, however, expected to moderate dramatically, as the impact of increasing power costs makes some existing facilities uneconomic, such as those that have recently closed in France, Germany and Norway. Aluminium Demand As mentioned previously (see "Updated currency assumptions", released on 4 July 2007), aluminium is a potential substitute for copper (although it only has 65% of copper's conductivity). For example, aluminium can be used for electrical transformers and long-distance electricity transmission cabling. Since June 2002, aluminium prices have declined relative to copper and, currently, aluminium is approximately 30% to 40% of copper prices. Despite a 6% decline in consumption by North America, consumption has grown 3.2% in Europe, 5.2% in Asia (without China), 7.8% in Latin America, 9.9% in Russia and 10% for the rest of the world (Alcoa, 2007). 2006a 2007f 2008f % Change* Production kt 33,967 37,730 40,440 7.2% Consumption kt 33,970 37,218 39,599 6.4% Closing Stocks kt 2,764 3,277 4,118 25.7% Weeks consumption 4.2 4.6 5.4 17.4% Price US$/t 2,570 2,673 2,481 -7.2% Usc/lb 116.6 1.21 1.13 -7.2% Copyright © 2000 - 2007 Aegis Equities Holdings Pty Limited. All rights reserved. This information must be read in conjunction with the Legal Notice which can be located at http://www.aegis.com.au/public/disclaimer.aspx.
  • 22. Alumina Ltd Aluminium Demand (cont.) The key driver, however, is Chinese aluminium consumption, which has increased by 45% over the pcp, driven by strong growth in building construction, expansion of electrical power grids, and growing output of consumer household products and motor vehicles. In the first nine months of 2007, investment in fixed assets, such as factories and housing, increased by around 26% over the pcp, while light motor vehicle production increased by 20%. Over the same period, both electricity production and the production of major white goods increased by 14% (ABARE 2007). In 2008, ABARE expects Chinese consumption of aluminium to increase by 13% to almost 13.6Mt as a result of continued strong economic and industrial production growth, with global aluminium demand forecast to double by 2020 (WBMS, 2007). Aluminium production is forecast to rise by more than 7% to 40.4Mt, largely as a result of continued strong production growth in China. Both 3-month and 15-month futures are in contango (i.e., future expected prices are higher than those at present). FIGURE 3: ALUMINIUM PRICE AND FUTURES DIFFERENTIAL Source: Bloomberg/Aegis Equities Outlook Given recent turmoil in global markets and negative sentiment associated with the general slowdown expected in the US economy, especially in the area of housing, it is not surprising that aluminium consumption has declined 6% in the US only. We believe that this is predominately the reason why there has been negative sentiment towards AWC. Global aluminium demand is forecast to double by 2020. To reach this target, annual production growth would have to increase at a compound rate of 6% per annum over the next 12 years. Chinese consumption of aluminium is forecast to increase by 13% to almost 13.6Mt as a result of continued strong economic and industrial production growth. As a result of increased capacity coming online in 2007, we expect average aluminium price will drop by 7.2% to $2,481/t next year from an expected $2,673/t this year. Production is expected to exceed consumption for a second successive year, leading to a build in stocks to around 5.4 weeks’ consumption by the end of 2008 from 4.6 weeks’ consumption at the end of this year. At its current share price, we have adopted a positive view on AWC, forecasting a total 12-month return of 22% on the stock. Hence, we are changing our 12-month recommendation for AWC from Hold to BUY. The current difference between our IRR and its cost of equity is 1.74%. Therefore, we are also changing our long-term recommendation on AWC from Hold to BUY. Copyright © 2000 - 2007 Aegis Equities Holdings Pty Limited. All rights reserved. This information must be read in conjunction with the Legal Notice which can be located at http://www.aegis.com.au/public/disclaimer.aspx.
  • 23. Health Care John Kessell ASX: API Bloomberg: API AU Reuters: API.AX 10 December 2007 Aust Pharmaceutical Model changes...no change to view Event In light of the recent fall in share price, we have reviewed our model. We have increased expected working capital requirements as we consider the levels at which API ended their 16-month transitional period to be unsustainably low. We also note that API's recent ejection from the ASX200 index is likely to be associated with declining institutional interest in the stock and, therefore, weaker investor sentiment to the stock going forward. Implications The net effect of the increased forecast working capital has been a requirement for increased debt with some increase in interest expense and consequent decrease in EPS in FY08 and FY09 by around 6%. Our 12-month target price has fallen by 11% to $2.01. We maintain our HOLD recommendations on 12-month and long-term investment horizons. Investment Opinion API is Australia's largest pharmacy distributor and has a large group of loyal banner-brand pharmacy members (Soul Pattinson, ChemWorld, Pharmacist Advice). The company's reputation suffered further damage in FY07 from a poor operational result following the financial embarrassment suffered in FY06. The Alphapharm partnership is a coup for API. Our long-term view for API is neutral. The FY07 result showed both Pharmacy and Retail businesses have a long way to go to recover, but the interim 4-month result post-FY07 showed that the CEO is making good headway in improving the business. The risk to earnings forecasts is diminishing. Nevertheless, continued uncertainty surrounds the new generics-related regulatory changes to the PBS, to be introduced in 2H CY08. HOLD. Key Information Price Performance Market Statistics Key Assumptions Share Price $1.82 12 month view HOLD 12 month target return (%) 12.0 12 month target price $2.01 Long Term View HOLD Long Term Target Return (% pa) 12.5 3 year target price n/a Market Cap (M) $472 Shares (M) 257.3 % of Market 0.02 % of Sector 0.80 12 Month Range $1.65 - $2.48 Company Risk Share Price Risk Ethical rating Performance against indices (%) 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months API (6.4) (22.9) (26.3) Sector 5.8 15.6 33.6 Market 8.1 7.3 24.0 Beta: 1.3 Market risk premium (%): 5.5 Risk free rate (%): 6.1 WACC (%): 12.2 Forecast cashflow (years): 10 Residual value % of total valuation: 49.9 Nominal terminal growth rate (%): 3.0 Earnings Summary 1 NPAT and EPS are adjusted by removing non-recurring items. All the above statistics are derived from normalised earnings. Yr to Apr NPAT Rep $M NPAT1 Adj $M EPS1 c EPS chg % PER x PER rel All Ords x PER rel Sector x DPS c Yield % Franking % ROE % 2006A 20.6 39.3 15.3 (9.8) 11.9 0.5 0.3 9.3 5.1 100 8.9 2007A (14.1) 7.3 2.8 (81.5) 64.1 3.3 2.1 0.0 0.0 0 1.8 2008F 27.0 26.0 10.1 257.0 17.9 1.1 0.7 2.5 1.4 100 6.2 2009F 32.6 32.6 12.7 25.2 14.3 1.0 0.7 9.5 5.2 100 7.4
  • 24. Aust Pharmaceutical Year end Apr. All figures in A$M Notes: 1. The 12M recommendation rates stocks on a 12 month, absolute basis based on the total return (capital and dividends). BUY denotes an expectation of 15% or more total return; SELL 5% or less; HOLD within the range of 5-15%. ACCEPT OFFER relates to a situation where there is a public offer for shares and our view is to accept that offer. 2. The Long Term Recommendation rates stocks on a long term, absolute basis based on the average total return per annum (capital and dividends). BUY denotes a long term expectation of 1% or more above the cost of equity (also known as the required return, which measures the the return required by investors given the company's risk); HOLD within the range of 1% above and 3% below the cost of equity; SELL more than 3% below the cost of equity but above a total forecast annual return for the stock of 0%; AVOID denotes a long term expectation of a total annual return below 0%. ACCEPT OFFER relates to a situation where there is a public offer for shares and our view is to accept that offer. 12M Recommendation1: HOLD 12M Target: $2.01 Long Term Recommendation 2: HOLD Long Term Target Return: 12.5% pa Profit & loss summary 2006A 2007A 2008F 2009F Operating revenue 2,919.6 3,589.3 3,025.7 3,082.4 Invest & other income 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 EBITDA 71.7 70.1 67.9 72.7 Depreciation/Amort (11.7) (21.1) (18.0) (18.5) EBIT 60.1 49.0 49.9 54.2 Net Interest (13.3) (27.6) (0.6) 0.2 Pre-tax profit 46.8 21.4 49.3 54.4 Tax expense (7.8) (6.2) (13.8) (16.3) Minorities/Assoc./Prefs 0.3 (7.9) (9.4) (5.5) NPAT 39.3 7.3 26.0 32.6 Non recurring items (18.8) (21.4) 1.0 0.0 Reported profit 20.6 (14.1) 27.0 32.6 NPAT add Goodwill & Pref 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Adjusted profit 39.3 7.3 26.0 32.6 Cashflow summary 2006A 2007A 2008F 2009F EBITDA 71.7 70.1 67.9 72.7 Working capital changes 108.8 65.1 (87.7) 0.7 Interest and tax (21.8) (29.6) (12.7) (15.1) Other operating items (70.2) (69.8) 0.1 (3.1) Operating cashflow 88.5 35.8 (32.3) 55.2 Required capex (18.3) (23.6) (19.3) (19.9) Maintainable cashflow 70.2 12.1 (51.6) 35.3 Dividends (33.5) (7.7) 0.0 (19.3) Acq/Disp 21.0 3.1 9.5 1.0 Other investing items (29.1) 5.4 1.0 0.0 Free cashflow 28.7 12.9 (41.2) 17.0 Equity 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Debt inc/(red'n) (18.7) (33.4) 41.2 (17.0) Balance sheet 2006A 2007A 2008F 2009F Cash & deposits 36.1 16.1 0.0 0.0 Inventories 251.1 301.0 347.1 343.6 Trade debtors 212.0 148.3 182.7 180.9 Other curr assets 3.0 23.4 23.4 23.4 Total current assets 502.3 488.8 553.2 547.9 Prop., plant & equip. 72.6 77.3 69.2 69.6 Non-curr intangibles 212.9 208.6 208.6 208.6 Non-curr investments 30.0 23.8 19.0 16.2 Other non-curr assets 59.3 109.6 109.6 109.6 Total assets 877.0 908.3 959.7 951.9 Trade creditors 412.6 464.0 456.7 452.2 Curr borrowings 6.5 8.7 8.7 8.7 Other curr liabilities 18.7 17.6 20.0 20.8 Total current liab. 437.9 490.2 485.4 481.7 Borrowings 4.8 2.9 28.0 11.0 Other non-curr liabilities 5.5 8.0 12.3 12.2 Total liabilities 448.2 501.1 525.7 504.9 Minorities/Convertibles 0.9 0.0 (0.2) (0.4) Shareholders equity 428.9 407.2 434.0 447.0 Ratio analysis 2006A 2007A 2008F 2009F Revenue growth (%) (13.7) 22.9 (15.7) 1.9 EBITDA growth (%) (4.6) (2.3) (3.2) 7.1 EPS growth (%) (9.8) (81.5) 257.0 25.2 EBITDA/Sales margin (%) 2.5 2.0 2.2 2.4 EBIT/Sales margin (%) 2.1 1.4 1.6 1.8 Tax rate (%) 16.6 28.8 28.0 30.0 Net debt/equity (%) (5.8) (1.1) 8.5 4.4 Net debt/net debt + equity (%) (6.1) (1.1) 7.8 4.2 Net interest cover (x) 4.5 1.8 80.7 n/a Payout ratio (%) 60.6 0.0 24.7 75.0 Capex to deprec'n (%) 163.3 111.8 107.2 107.2 NTA per share ($) 0.84 0.77 0.88 0.93 ROA (%) 5.5 5.2 5.2 5.4 ROE (%) 8.9 1.8 6.2 7.4 Multiple analysis 2006A 2007A 2008F 2009F Market cap (M) 472 Net debt ($M) (4.5) Peripheral assets ($M) (0.0) Enterprise value ($M) 467.8 EV/EBIT (x) 7.8 9.5 9.4 8.6 EV/EBITDA (x) 6.5 6.7 6.9 6.4 EV/EBITDA All Ind (x) 10.3 9.3 8.2 7.6 EV/EBITDA rel All Ind (x) 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 P/E (x) 11.9 64.1 17.9 14.3 P/E rel All Ind (x) 0.5 3.2 1.1 0.9 P/E rel All Ind ex banks (x) 0.5 3.2 1.1 0.9 P/E sector (x) 37.0 30.3 25.6 21.7 P/E rel sector (x) 0.3 2.1 0.7 0.7 Assumptions 2006A 2007A 2008F 2009F GDP growth (%) 4.17 2.41 2.87 3.58 Interest Rates (%) 5.65 6.27 6.36 6.30 Inflation (%) 2.82 3.56 2.36 2.50 Notes To Accounts Note: API changed its year end from April to August from 1-Sep-07. The company reported results for the four month interim period from May-07 to Aug-07 in October, and we have restated our FY07 financials to cover the 16 month period from May-06 to Aug-07. Copyright © 2000 - 2007 Aegis Equities Holdings Pty Limited. All rights reserved. This information must be read in conjunction with the Legal Notice which can be located at http://www.aegis.com.au/public/disclaimer.aspx.
  • 25. Utilities Alan Stuart ASX: BBI Bloomberg: BBI AU Reuters: BBI.AX 08 December 2007 Babcock & Brown Infrastructure Group BBI pursues its port consolidation strategy Event BBI announced that it has acquired interests in three port operators located in Germany, Belgium and the US. BBI subsidiary Benelux Port Holdings has acquired 43% of the Westerlund Group (Belgium) with negotiations on the remaining 57% still underway. BBI acquired 50% of Seehafen Rostock Umschlagsgesellchaft GmbH (Germany) with pre- emptive rights over the remaining 50%. Lastly, BBI has entered an agreement to acquire 50% of ICS Logistics Inc (US). The acquisitions have an EV of ~A$616.5M. Implications We have made no adjustments to our EPS forecasts at this time. We shall be having discussions with management to confirm some of our model assumptions before updating our financial forecasts. That said, from a broad overview of the transaction, it looks positive. Following our discussions with management we shall provide an update. We retain our bullish view on both 12-month and long-term investment horizons. Investment Opinion BBI is a diversified utility and infrastructure vehicle with an aggressive asset growth profile, having acquired $6B+ of assets since listing in 2002. BBI's long-life, long concession, monopolistic underlying assets produce strong and stable cash flows, secured by regulated tariff regimes or contracted revenues. We expect continued success via its relationship with BNB, which identifies, secures and finances BBI's acquisitions. We have a positive long-term view on the stock. Our BBI forecasts reflect improved cash flows derived from its wholly owned Dalrymple Bay Coal Terminal and moderate growth from its utilities portfolio. We favour the proposed acquisition of the AAN assets and expect the deal to be earnings accretive. BBI offers an attractive yield, given its moderate growth outlook. Overall, we have a positive 12-month view on the stock. Key Information Price Performance Market Statistics Key Assumptions Share Price $1.64 12 month view BUY 12 month target return (%) 32.1 12 month target price $2.02 Long Term View BUY Long Term Target Return (% pa) 20.0 3 year target price n/a Market Cap (M) $3,597 Shares (M) 1,745.8 % of Market 0.17 % of Sector 10.23 12 Month Range $1.42 - $2.03 Company Risk Share Price Risk Ethical rating Performance against indices (%) 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months BBI (0.6) (11.1) (9.1) Sector (4.5) (7.8) 4.3 Market 8.1 7.3 24.0 Beta: 1.3 Market risk premium (%): 5.5 Risk free rate (%): 6.1 WACC (%): 8.8 Forecast cashflow (years): 10 Residual value % of total valuation: 60.5 Nominal terminal growth rate (%): 3.0 Earnings Summary 1 NPAT and EPS are adjusted by removing non-recurring items. All the above statistics are derived from normalised earnings. Yr to Jun NPAT Rep $M NPAT1 Adj $M EPS1 c EPS chg % PER x PER rel All Ords x PER rel Sector x DPS c Yield % Franking % Deferred Tax % 2006A 82.7 13.5 1.2 n/a >99 6.3 4.5 13.3 8.1 0 100 2007A 106.8 47.7 3.1 158.2 53.3 2.7 2.1 14.3 8.7 0 100 2008F 113.7 163.5 7.8 153.0 21.1 1.3 1.1 15.0 9.1 0 100 2009F 134.3 193.9 8.7 12.3 18.8 1.3 1.1 16.0 9.8 0 100
  • 26. Babcock & Brown Infrastructure Group Year end Jun. All figures in A$M Notes: 1. The 12M recommendation rates stocks on a 12 month, absolute basis based on the total return (capital and dividends). BUY denotes an expectation of 15% or more total return; SELL 5% or less; HOLD within the range of 5-15%. ACCEPT OFFER relates to a situation where there is a public offer for shares and our view is to accept that offer. 2. The Long Term Recommendation rates stocks on a long term, absolute basis based on the average total return per annum (capital and dividends). BUY denotes a long term expectation of 1% or more above the cost of equity (also known as the required return, which measures the the return required by investors given the company's risk); HOLD within the range of 1% above and 3% below the cost of equity; SELL more than 3% below the cost of equity but above a total forecast annual return for the stock of 0%; AVOID denotes a long term expectation of a total annual return below 0%. ACCEPT OFFER relates to a situation where there is a public offer for shares and our view is to accept that offer. 12M Recommendation1: BUY 12M Target: $2.02 Long Term Recommendation 2: BUY Long Term Target Return: 20.0% pa Profit & loss summary 2006A 2007A 2008F 2009F Operating revenue 787.7 1,239.3 1,617.4 1,700.7 Invest & other income (18.4) 0.0 (44.5) (45.6) EBITDA 358.7 485.2 736.4 776.9 Depreciation/Amort (123.8) (181.0) (260.3) (265.5) EBIT 234.9 304.2 476.1 511.4 Net Interest (236.1) (301.7) (214.4) (217.4) Pre-tax profit (1.2) 2.5 261.7 294.0 Tax expense 15.6 51.3 (87.0) (88.2) Minorities/Assoc./Prefs (0.9) (6.1) (61.0) (71.5) NPAT 13.5 47.7 113.7 134.3 Non recurring items 69.2 59.1 0.0 0.0 Reported profit 82.7 106.8 113.7 134.3 NPAT add Goodwill & Pref 0.0 0.0 49.8 59.6 Adjusted profit 13.5 47.7 163.5 193.9 Cashflow summary 2006A 2007A 2008F 2009F EBITDA 358.7 485.2 736.4 776.9 Working capital changes 181.1 105.1 25.5 6.5 Interest and tax (199.8) (284.4) (246.2) (288.0) Other operating items (32.8) (90.5) (17.7) 1.7 Operating cashflow 307.2 215.5 498.0 497.0 Required capex (326.9) (581.8) (108.9) (114.3) Maintainable cashflow (19.6) (366.3) 389.1 382.7 Dividends (62.9) (204.0) (312.8) (403.9) Acq/Disp (1,257.5) (56.2) (823.2) (550.0) Other investing items 6.8 (219.0) 0.0 0.0 Free cashflow (1,333.3) (845.4) (746.9) (571.2) Equity 682.7 562.1 1,520.2 0.0 Debt inc/(red'n) 665.3 204.3 (773.3) 571.2 Balance sheet 2006A 2007A 2008F 2009F Cash & deposits 309.1 227.9 50.0 50.0 Inventories 14.9 14.9 18.8 19.7 Trade debtors 225.4 185.3 233.9 246.2 Other curr assets 74.0 235.7 235.7 235.7 Total current assets 623.4 663.7 538.3 551.6 Prop., plant & equip. 4,390.0 5,026.4 5,718.2 6,147.1 Non-curr intangibles 1,967.1 2,113.3 2,113.3 2,113.3 Non-curr investments 391.8 382.5 382.5 382.6 Other non-curr assets 150.2 210.3 172.2 144.7 Total assets 7,522.5 8,396.2 8,924.6 9,339.2 Trade creditors 232.4 297.3 375.4 395.1 Curr borrowings 130.1 37.7 37.7 37.7 Other curr liabilities 53.0 86.7 166.2 170.4 Total current liab. 415.5 421.7 579.2 603.2 Borrowings 4,452.4 4,640.2 3,689.0 4,260.2 Other non-curr liabilities 719.0 864.6 825.6 825.6 Total liabilities 5,586.9 5,926.5 5,093.8 5,689.0 Minorities/Convertibles 136.4 122.5 933.8 945.7 Shareholders equity 1,935.8 2,469.7 3,830.8 3,650.3 Ratio analysis 2006A 2007A 2008F 2009F Revenue growth (%) 117.1 57.3 30.5 5.2 EBITDA growth (%) 95.1 35.3 51.8 5.5 EPS growth (%) n/a 158.2 153.0 12.3 EBITDA/Sales margin (%) 45.5 39.2 45.5 45.7 EBIT/Sales margin (%) 29.8 24.5 29.4 30.1 Tax rate (%) >1000 (<1000) 33.2 30.0 Net debt/equity (%) 237.5 189.6 126.9 157.1 Net debt/net debt + equity (%) 70.4 65.5 55.9 61.1 Net interest cover (x) 1.0 1.0 2.2 2.4 Payout ratio (%) >1000 463.3 192.6 183.2 Capex to deprec'n (%) 264.0 321.4 41.8 43.1 NTA per share ($) (0.11) 0.13 0.35 0.27 ROA (%) 4.7 3.8 5.5 5.6 ROE (%) 1.1 2.5 4.0 4.8 Multiple analysis 2006A 2007A 2008F 2009F Market cap (M) 3,597 Net debt ($M) 4,450.0 Peripheral assets ($M) (377.2) Enterprise value ($M) 7,669.8 EV/EBIT (x) 32.8 25.2 16.1 15.0 EV/EBITDA (x) 21.4 15.8 10.4 9.9 EV/EBITDA All Ind (x) 10.3 9.3 8.2 7.6 EV/EBITDA rel All Ind (x) 2.1 1.7 1.3 1.3 P/E (x) >99 53.3 21.1 18.8 P/E rel All Ind (x) 5.9 2.7 1.3 1.2 P/E rel All Ind ex banks (x) 5.5 2.7 1.3 1.2 P/E sector (x) 30.5 25.0 19.2 16.7 P/E rel sector (x) 4.5 2.1 1.1 1.1 Assumptions 2006A 2007A 2008F 2009F GDP growth (%) 2.92 2.50 3.02 3.64 Interest Rates (%) 5.73 6.38 6.34 6.30 Inflation (%) 3.20 3.09 2.47 2.50 Notes To Accounts All P&L items (except Reported profit) now exclude Goodwill Amortisation as per the new IFRS requirements. Our adjusted NPAT represents returns to both ordinary unit holders and preference share holders. Copyright © 2000 - 2007 Aegis Equities Holdings Pty Limited. All rights reserved. This information must be read in conjunction with the Legal Notice which can be located at http://www.aegis.com.au/public/disclaimer.aspx.
  • 27. Andrew Black Neil Verringer General Manager, St George Private Bank Head of BSA Private Bank BLACKA@STGEORGE.COM.AU VERRINGERN@BANKSA.COM.AU Phone +61 2 9236 3056 Phone + 61 088424 5487 St.George Private Bank & BankSA Private Bank Locations Sydney Level 4, 182 George Street, Sydney, NSW 2000 Phone (02) 9236 1882 Melbourne Level 8, 530 Collins Street, Melbourne, VIC 3000 Phone (03) 9274 4850 Brisbane Central Plaza, Level 4, 345 Queen Street, Brisbane, QLD 4000 (07) 3232 8888 Perth 152-158 St Georges Terrace, Perth, WA 6000 Phone (08) 9265 7510 Adelaide BankSA Private Bank Level 1, 97 King William Street Adelaide, SA 5000 (08) 8424 4141 Staff Directory Private Bank Directors Warren Acworth Brisbane acworthw@stgeorge.com.au Richard Battifuoco Adelaide battifuocor@banksa.com.au David Gray Sydney grayda@stgeorge.com.au David Scannell Sydney scannelld@stgeorge.com.au David Wyndham Sydney wyndhamd@stgeorge.com.au Private Bank Relationship Managers – Financial Advice Peter Coulthard Melbourne coulthardp@stgeorge.com.au Andrew Smith Sydney smitha@stgeorge.com.au Damien Ferguson Brisbane fergusond@stgeorge.com.au Gerry Duffy Sydney duffyg@stgeorge.com.au ROXANNE GORMAN SYDNEY GORMANR@STGEORGE.COM.AU Sharyn Besch Brisbane BESCHS@STGEORGE.COM.AU Darren Carr Perth CARRDA@STGEORGE.COM.AU Private Bank Relationship Managers – Banking Jeanette McCann Sydney mccannj@stgeorge.com.au Brett Edwards Sydney edwardsbr@stgeorge.com.au Anne Fraser Sydney frasera@stgeorge.com.au Scott Heyes Melbourne heyess@stgeorge.com.au Andrew Horsnell Adelaide horsnella@banksa.com.au Bruce Kleem Sydney kleemb@stgeorge.com.au Lisa Marks Melbourne marksl@stgeorge.com.au Kishore Mudaliar Sydney mudaliark@stgeorge.com.au Richard Northey Sydney northeyr@stgeorge.com.au Josie Prasad Sydney prasadj@stgeorge.com.au Geoffrey Bell Sydney bellge@stgeorge.com.au Josephine Prasad Sydney prasadjo@stgeorge.com.au
  • 28. Disclaimer and Disclosure of Interest This publication has been prepared by Aegis Equities Research Pty Limited (ACN 085 293 910) (“Aegis”), an Australian Financial Services Licensee . St.George Wealth Management Pty Limited (ABN 28 006 929 004), St.George Bank Limited (ABN 92 055 513 070), trading as BankSA (SGB Entities) has not had any involvement in the research for or preparation of any part of this publication. Whilst the information contained in this publication has been prepared with all reasonable care from sources, which Aegis believes are reliable, no responsibility or liability is accepted by Aegis or SGB Entities for any errors or omissions or misstatements however caused. Any opinions, forecasts or recommendations reflects the judgement and assumptions of Aegis as at the date of publication and may change without notice. Aegis and SGB Entities, their officers, agents and employees exclude all liability whatsoever, in negligence or otherwise, for any loss or damage relating to this document to the full extent permitted by law. This publication is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment. Any securities recommendation contained in this publication is unsolicited general information only. Aegis and SGB Entities are not aware that any recipient intends to rely on this publication and are not aware of the manner in which a recipient intends to use it. In preparing our information, it is not possible to take into consideration the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any individual recipient. Investors must obtain individual financial advice from their investment advisor to determine whether recommendations contained in this publication are appropriate to their personal investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs before acting on any such recommendations. This publication is not for public circulation or reproduction whether in whole or in part and is not to be disclosed to any person other than the intended recipient, without obtaining the prior written consent of Aegis. Aegis and/or SGB Entities, their officers, employees, consultants or its related bodies corporate may, from time to time hold positions in any securities included in this report and may buy or sell such securities or engage in other transactions involving such securities. Aegis and SGB Entities, their Directors and associates declare that from time to time they may hold interests in and/or earn brokerage, fees or other benefits from securities mentioned in this publication. Aegis, its officers, employees, consultants and its related bodies corporate have not and will not receive, whether directly or indirectly, any commission, fee, benefit or advantage, whether pecuniary or otherwise in connection with making any recommendation contained in this report and/or on this web site. Aegis discloses that from time to time, it or its officers, employees, consultants and its related bodies corporate may have an interest in the securities, directly or indirectly, which are the subject of these recommendations or may perform paid services for the companies that are the subject of such recommendations. HOWEVER, UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES, HAS AEGIS BEEN INFLUENCED, EITHER DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY, IN MAKING ANY RECOMMENDATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT AND/OR ON THIS WEB SITE. This information must be read in conjunction with the Legal Notice which can be located at http://www.aer.com.au/disclaimer.asp