Effect Based Operation (EBO) is a concept of fighting in peace, in a peaceful way. There are several concepts in strategic Management, that are also usable in EBO

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EFFECT BASED OPERATIONS
AND KNOWLEDGE MOBILIZATION FROM
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT
To respond to the terrorist threat, military force must anticipate the unexpected and be
prepared for unimaginable1
INTRODUCTION
1. The degree of situational uncertainty has continued to increase as military has to
respond in widely changing conditions. Modern militaries of the world are fighting Asymmetric
Warfare2
as the recent evolution. In asymmetric threat for employing modern, networked
system and innovative technique rivals are not presenting any concentrated target, which can
be neutralized or destroyed. Recently developed, Effect Based Operation (EBO) focuses
essentially on gaining desired effect rather than destruction as done in Attrition Based
Operation. EBO provides versatile application potential that ranges from military operational
planning, national policy making, corporate and diplomatic dealings. Bangladesh (BD) army is
in the process of adopting training on Military Operations Other Than War (MOOTW) which is
an otherwise EBO in simple terms.
2. Increasingly being termed as the future of military planning, EBO duels with the
objective based process and allow planners to play with conditions and causal linkages
through which actions lead to objectives. The theory focuses on ‘Shaping the Behavior’ of an
adversary where he is viewed not as a target but a complex adaptive system. It is founded
upon new manifestations of technology and complexity that compel one to think beyond the
linear. Effects-based approach is of as much relevance to 'winning- peace' as it is to winning
war.
3. The essay would attempt to hoist an understanding of broad overview of EBO.
Comprehending EBO would include security environment, definitional features, domain and
complexity of EBO. Real world example, the next segment will talk about a great conquest
without fight, UN system that operates for peace and the position of BD army in EBO. Finally,
the essay will suggest some tools of corporate strategic management for ‘Knowledge
Mobilization’ in favor of EBO, as they always ‘Fight in Peace’.
AIM
1
NATO. 2003, project description: Leader and Team Adoptability in Multinational Coalitions: Cultural Diversity in
Cognition and Teamwork.
2
The US military's recent Joint Staff definition opines that asymmetric warfare consists of ‘unanticipated/ non-
traditional approaches to circumvent or undermine an adversary's strengths while exploiting his vulnerabilities through
unexpected technologies or innovative means’
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4. Aim of this essay is to thrash out the latest strategic development of the most advanced
armies, suggest some tools of corporate strategic management for knowledge mobilization in
support of EBO.
COMPREHENDING EFFECT BASED APPROACH
5. Security Environment. Global security environment today is extensively networked,
interconnected, complex and continually changing. “Today’s global environment consists of a
network of complex interconnected adaptive systems that extend beyond the domain of
historic military operations and geographic battle space. Planning and execution of future
operations must... integrate fully with government and nongovernmental agencies as well as
with multinational partners”3
. For the changed global security scenario, threat can no longer be
viewed as an objective; rather to be analyzed as a compound system having political, military,
social, economic and other dimensions like infrastructure and information systems known as
PMSEII. Effect Based Approach aims at changing the behavior of the opponent in order to
achieve a desired end state. Changing of behavior occurs only when the nodes4
are
influenced through different lines of operations. EBO identifies that national power assets of
diplomacy, information, military and economy (DIME) are to be used to bring in desired
change.
6. Defining the Operation. According to US Joint Forces Command (JFCOM) Glossary,
Effect based operation, is a process for obtaining a desired strategic outcome or “effect” on
the enemy, through the synergistic, multiplicative, and cumulative application of the full range
of military and nonmilitary capabilities at the tactical, operational and strategic levels. E. A.
Smith defines EBO as, "Effect based operations are coordinated sets of actions directed at
shaping the behavior of friends, foes, and neutrals in peace, crisis, and war5
. Davis observed6
that definition of EBO was not commonly agreed upon, but there is a degree of general
understanding of three properties in common, firstly, the aim is primarily to, 'produce desirable
results at all Ievels of conflict in the most effective and efficient way'. Secondly, there is a
focus upon ‘shaping the behavior’, and finally, there is recognition (explicit or implicit) that it is
dealing with a ‘complex and interconnected system’.
6. Defining ‘Effect’. The JFCOM Glossary definition of effect is, “The physical,
functional or psychological outcome, event, or consequence that results from specific military
3
Joint Warfighting Center, Operational Implications of Effects Based Operations (EBO), Pamphlet 7, (Norflok: US joint
Forces Command, 17 Nov,2004), p1.
4
Adversaries’ system of political, military, social, economic, infrastructure and information briefly known as PMSEII,
are interconnected with each other and these junctions are called as nodes.
5
Smith, Edward. A, Effect Based Operations, Appling Network Centric Warfare in Peace, Crisis, and War, Center for
Advance Concepts and Technology, DOD Command and Control Research Program, USA, Nov 2002 p10.
6
David, Paul. K. Effect-Based Operations (EBO): A grand Challenge for the Analytical Community’, RSND, 2001, p7.
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or non-military actions”. Smith's broad definition implies that "effects may be either kinetic or
non-kinetic, and may equally be physical or psychological/ cognitive in nature"7
. Thus effect is
not only the direct impact but also indirect and successive or cumulative impact which might
also embrace cascading or chain impact. JFCOM Glossary definitions, indirect effects are
second and third order systematic effects that are the results created through an intermediate
effects or mechanism to produce the final outcome. Cumulative effects result from the
aggregate of many direct or indirect effects. An example of Cascading Effect is, when an
enemy central headquarters is destroyed the effects cascade down through the enemy
echelons to ultimately disrupt numerous tactical units on the battlefield.
7. The Domains of EBO. Behind every predetermined action there is a planning
process which is mainly influenced by information. So the process can be segregated in clear
three domains, namely, physical domain (action), information domain and cognitive domain
(decision). Adversaries’ actions reactions are observed and reported to higher authority in
information domain, and then decisions are made by commanders. Recent researchers
recognize, the presence of social domain above the cognitive (inclusive in it) domain, which
basically influence 'sense making’. The aim of EBO is to play with the mind of the opponent
commander and influence his behavior by doing some actions. EBO hence can be described
as operations in the cognitive domain; where human beings react to stimuli, come to an
understanding of a situation, and decide on a response8
. But the presence of social domain
only at the top of the cognitive domain is not as simple as described by E. A. Smith. Perhaps it
has much deeper connotations over the information level (as shown in 3rd
box of figure 1).
Because the flow of feedback from down to top, in every stage, it will be customized as the
person perceives the action. So, social domain of all commanders (resides in information
domain) will influence decision making of the highest commanders cognitive domain.
7
Smith, Op Cit, Chapter 3, p111.
8
Asadullah Minhaz, Band of Brothers & the societal debt, The Ad Communications, November 2010, p-77.
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DOMAINS OF EBO
COGNETIVE
DOMAIN
INFORMATION
DOMAIN
ACTION
DOMAIN
SOCIAL
DOMAIN
COGNETIVE
DOMAIN
INFORMATION
DOMAIN
ACTION
DOMAIN
SOCIAL
DOMAIN
COGNETIVE
DOMAIN
INFORMATION
DOMAIN
ACTION
DOMAIN
Figure 1; Presence of social domain up to information domain9
8. Sense Making to Decision Making. Because of the varied perception of human
psychology, actions are interpreted and understood differently. Perceptions varies because of
own prior experience, mental models, culture, and institutional attachments. This perception
will then be translated into a ‘sense’ of the situation. Finally, this sense will be balanced
against the alternatives available by manipulating elements of national power to produce a set
of decisions. These choices then to be weighed out against possible reactions and this action-
reaction cycle to be repeated as many times as possible. In simple terms, the planners, after
analyzing the adversaries action or probable actions, would find out the key nodes which are
important to create an effect in his overall PMESII system and the diplomatic, information,
military and economic elements would be directed after weighing out action reaction cycle. But
this is not as simple as illustrated, rather presents a complex phenomenon of numerous
improbability because of direct, indirect, cumulative and cascading effects.
9. Complexity of EBO. As EBO is all about shaping behavior, it involves all the
complexity of human psychology. The link between action and behavior is complex because it
involves many interdependent variables that are themselves evolving. Thus a given action can
produce outwardly infinite variety of effects, and each of these may produce additional
cascading effects10
. Again it does not merely speak of ‘an action’ creating ‘an effect’, but of
‘coordinated sets of actions’. It also does not produce a single clearly defined effect as the end
state rather sees the actions ‘shaping’ a ‘behavior’ as end state. This is to say it sees both a
process and an end state that are neither precise nor solely the product of the actions.
9
Prepared by Author.
10
Cascading effect are, indirect effects that can ripple through an enemy target system, often influencing other target
systems as well. Most often this cascading of indirect effects flows from higher to lower levels of war.
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REAL LIFE EXAMPLE
Conquest of Mecca without warfighting
10. E. A. Smith have analyzed 400 crisis responses of US since the end of Second World
War and shorted the major ones to apply EBO to observe the effect in the real world. This
essay will evaluate one of the greatest victories of Islam- Conquest of Mecca in 631 AD, in
light of EBO. This operation is chosen because, “The European historians have admitted that,
no conquest was made without bloodshed and no forgiveness was shown like this one
vanquished in the history of the ancient and modern world”11
. One might be wondering, how a
person could device EBO before fourteen hundred years? It was only possible because of
correct assessment of asymmetric threat (personal rivalry or small resistance in any of the four
approaches against a ten thousand troop’s army) and winning the ‘hearts and minds’ strategy.
The story goes like; Mohammed (s) amassed ten thousand troops for this great operation just
opposite of the hills of Mecca (4 to 5 miles away) without any notice of the opposition. To do
so, he moved his main force from Medina in opposite direction and then turned his course and
biffed up the force enroute. To amplify and show a false front he ordered to create camp fire at
night with a greater area which was actually occupied. The opponents (force of Abu Sufyan)
were too scared to put up any resistance, so Muslims entered Mecca without any
confrontation.
11. The background of this victory is not as plain and simple as it was conquered. For
thirteen years Mohammed (s) tried to win the hearts and minds of the people of Mecca, but
could not, as expected and migrated to Medina with some followers. He took over the
leadership, build a spirited team and faced three major engagements within eight years. On
the occasion of violating ‘Hudaiba Treaty’,12
assessing (collecting information) enemies’
weakness, before invading Mecca he developed diplomatic tie with the allies. He also
enforced economic sanction on his enemies by disrupting trade and commerce and
diplomacy. Here we find Mohammed (s) utilized all elements of national power- diplomacy,
information, military and economy (bold).
11
Dr. Majid Ali Khan, Rabitat- al- Alam al- Islam (Mecca) Award Winner, Mohammed the Final Messenger, Prominent
Printer, Dehli-110032, 1980, p-281.
12
Early in A.D. 628 the Holy Prophet along with fourteen hundred companions proceeded to Mecca to perform the
pilgrimage. On the way at a place named Hudaibia Muslims encamped, where Quraish came and barred them to go for
pilgrim. After a lone conversation a treaty was signed name Hudaibia Treaty. Main two conditions of the four are; The Muslims
were to withdraw that year without performing the pilgrimage. They were free to perform the Hajj the following years. There
was to be a truce between the Muslims and the Quraish for a period of ten years.
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12. Some Kuraish leaders including Abu Sufyan were confiscated while reconnoitering the
night before the invasion. After a short conversation, to influence the political leaders
Mohammed (s) said, “All your faults are forgiven, Abu Sufyan! And the one enters your house
shall also be safe”. Returning Mecca Abu Sufyan told the people of the society about the
safety guaranty and also informed them about the great strength of the Muslim Army, pointing
out the utter futility of offering any resistance. Infrastructure like Ka’ba, own home and
Sufyan’s house were declared as safe haven. All elements of opponent’s PMSEII systems
(bold and italic) were found to be addressed by the greatest leader. So, supporting the
argument of Dr. Majid Ali Khan ‘Conquest of Mecca without warfighting’ can be termed as the
most primitive and the most successful Effect Based Operation.
Effect Based Approach in UN Peacekeeping Operations
13. Peacekeeping, post-conflict peacebuilding or peacemaking operations of UN are well
known to most of us; still these will be studied for analyzing the involvement of EBO. Once
Security Council of UN decides to operate in a disturbed country, at first diplomats reaches
the spot. They hold number of dialog and exchange information with the leaders of the
warring factions (leaders are mostly the rebel chives, who fights for a political leadership).
After reaching to an agreement UN diplomats calls for military support to make the factions
separate and bind them with the terms and conditions of the treaty, thus the social security is
ensured. Slowly and gradually as per treaty the fighters surrender arms and ammunitions and
returns to normal life. Under the security arrangement of military, other programs and funds
like, UNDP, WFP, UNHCR, UNICEF starts to pore in the country. Donors finance with the aim
to make the country economically stable and these agencies work in coordination with each
other. After a suitable period of time, electoral commission starts working to make the voter list
and other arrangements for electing the upcoming leaders of the country. Infrastructures are
raised to educate, inform and train the people, mostly the youth to take the country forward.
UN agencies gradually hand over the charges of the institutions to the local and pull back its
activities and peace starts prevailing.
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• DIPLOMACY
• INFORMATION
• MILITARY
• ECONOMY
• POLITICS
• MILITARY
• SOCIAL SECURITY
• ECONOMY
• INFRASTRUCTURE
• INFORMATION
Figure 2; Inbuilt EBO in UN system for peacekeeping operations
14. Above sequence and figure illustrates an Effect Based Operation, behind the scene for
peacekeeping efforts. Here diplomacy deals with leaders who interns subside the militia or
rebels. UN security force confronts militia in peacemaking operations where, only after political
mediation; peace enforcement (use of military muscle) takes place. Normally military ensures
social security and security of UN agencies, where is the prerequisite of economic growth.
Information system of UN plays the most vital role; it has impact in all the elements of PMSEII.
Generally followed, these steps are the product of test and trial since the birth of UN, which
might have been done if EBO could be conceived from the beginning.
KNOWLEDGE MOBILIZATION FROM CORPORATE
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT
17. Smith says, “The task will be to tap the knowledge and expertise whatever it is, to make it
available to the warfighters and the decisionmakers who need it”. Though, “Strategy is the
rational planning process orchestrated by the top management….. reflects the military roots of
strategy”,13
this essay will make an endeavor to examine some corporate strategic
management tools in the realm of psychology and technology, which might be utilized for
successful EBO (Figure 3 shows the relation).
13
Charles and Gareth, Strategic Management an Integrated Approach, Houghton Mifflin, New York, 2001, p5.
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Figure 3: Relation of military strategy and corporate strategic management for EBO14
Realm of Psychology
18. Consumer Behavior. As EBO is all about shaping behavior in war, crisis and
peace so, how corporate shapes the behavior of consumer in peace to fight out the market
share should be scrutinized. Success behind all multinational or local corporate is correctly
identifying the local need. To assess the need, corporate has to play in information domain by
questioner survey and using statistical tools like hypothesis test, Chi-squared test, linear
regression, correlation frequency distribution and so on. Correct recognition of the need of
cognitive domain enables a successfully orchestrated action plan. Examples of these short of
shaping consumer behavior should be studied for EBO and might be adhered to shape the
adversaries behavior. Figure 415
shows how a corporate shapes up a buyer by playing in
cultural, social, personal and finally psychological field.
Figure 4; Factors and sub-factors influences the buyer
19. Study of Psychology in Organizational Behavior. Organizational Behavior is the
study and application of knowledge about how people, individuals, and groups act in
organizations16
. Numerous psychological studies have been conducted to find why people
behave differently in the organization. Human Resource Managers are mainly responsible for
14
Prepared by Author.
15
http://www.sharpastoast.com/marketing/the-relationship-consumer-behavior-segmenting-targeting-and-positioning/
16
http://www.nwlink.com/~donclark/leader/leadob.html
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this field, yet as the subject is taught in the college and university, there persist a lot many
professors and researchers. Successful EBO also needs this knowledge on psychology;
needs specific research on adversaries’ organizational behavior, only then it will be possible to
shape that.
20. Cognitive Dissonance. “Cognitive dissonance is a psychological phenomenon
which refers to the discomfort felt at a discrepancy between what you already know or believe,
and new information or interpretation”17
. Experience can clash with expectations, for example,
buyer's repentance following the purchase of an expensive item. The theory of cognitive
dissonance proposes that people have a motivational drive to reduce dissonance. They do
this by changing the attitudes, beliefs, and actions18
through customer care, after sales
service, promotion of products, etcetera. While corporates try to reduce dissonance, military
wants to increase it with the enemy commenders and the opposite with the own.
Understanding dissonance will be of solemn importance to play in cognitive domain, which will
lead to successful EBO.
21. Cognitive Bias. Cognitive bias is a pattern of divergence in decision that occurs in
particular situations. Bias arises from information-processing shortcuts, motivational factors,
social influence and a mixture of other phenomenon that are sometimes difficult to distinguish.
Some biases affect decision making as deceptive correlation affect how likely something is, or
whether one thing is the cause of another. Consistency bias19
is again opposite form, like
remembering one's past attitudes and behavior as more similar to one's present attitudes.
There are biases specific to groups as well as biases at the individual level. Understanding
and knowledge of all these critical psychological patterns of the opponent will help devising a
soothing strategy.
22. Core Ideology. Like Peters and Waterman a decade earlier, Jerry Porras and James
Collins spent years conducting empirical research on what makes great companies. Six years
of research uncovered a key underlying principle behind the 19 successful companies that
they studied: They all encourage and preserve a core ideology20
that nurtures the company.
Even though strategy and tactics changes, the companies, nevertheless, were able to
17
http://www.learningandteaching.info/learning/dissonance.htm
18
Festinger, L. (1957). A theory of cognitive dissonance. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press,
http://en.wikipedia.org/ wiki/Cognitive_ dissonance# cite_ note-Festinger1957-1
19
Schacter, D.L. (1999). "The Seven Sins of Memory: Insights from Psychology and Cognitive
Neuroscience". American Psychologist 54 (3): 182–203. doi:10.1037/0003-066X.54.3.182. PMID 10199218
20
Jerry Porras and James Collins, Built to Last: Successful Habits of Visionary Companies, HarperCollins, 1994.
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maintain a core set of values. These core values encourage employees to build an
organization that lasts. The same core ideology is found in all the terrorist groups, which is
needed to be reversed then that of corporate.
Dominion of Technology
23. Information Technology Driven Strategy. Today the firms with information know-
how, free from cumbersome physical assets, are changing the competitive landscape and
redefining market segments21
. One demonstration of this phenomenon is Personalized
Marketing22
also called personalization, and sometimes called one-to-one marketing.
Information technology allows marketers to treat each individual as its own market, a market of
one. Traditional ideas of market segments will no longer be relevant if personalized marketing
is successful. This idea will immensely benefit military in handling asymmetric warfare. All we
need is to visualize the theme and customize our own requirement.
24. Quantitative Marketing Research. Marketing is an interactive process in which both
the buyer and seller arrives at a satisfying agreement on the ‘Marketing Mix’- ‘Four Ps’ of
marketing; Product, Price, Place and Promotion. Marketing research makes extensive use
of social science, psychology, sociology, mathematics, statistics, economics, anthropology
and neuroscience23
. Marketers use the information obtained by a survey to understand the
needs of individuals and to create strategies and marketing plan. Military calculates time,
space and resources of enemy and own. Whereas EBO might need quantitative research to
find out the adversaries’ need (product), the level of sacrifice (price) they want to accept, use
of space (place) and feeding the information for manipulating his decisions (promotion24
).
25. Network Society. Manuel Castells, describes a network society characterized by:
globalization, organizations structured as a network, instability of employment, and a social
divide between those with access to information technology and those without25
. Though the
theory talks about a cyber network, Bangladeshi NGOs like Grameen, BRAC, ASA, TMSS and
21
A market segment is a sub-set of a market made up of people or organizations with one or more characteristics that
cause them to demand similar product and/or services based on qualities of those products such as price or function.
22
Personalized marketing is an extreme form of product differentiation. Whereas product differentiation tries to
differentiate a product from competing ones, personalization tries to make a unique product offering for each customer.
23
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marketing
24
Promotion is the business of communication with customer. It will provide information that will assist them in making
a decision to purchase a product or service.
25
Castells Manuel, The Rise of the Network Society, The Information Age: Economy, Society and Culture Vol. I, 2000,
Oxford, UK.
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many others are the perfect examples of physically networked business. Grameen have
already achieved Nobel Peace Prize, BRAC is the 4th
largest SME in the world. These NGOs
are disbursing micro credit through a well developed networked system. These models of
virtual (cyber) and actual (physical) network should be studied and might be incorporated in
EBO to develop network and disrupt adversaries’ one.
26. Intellectual Capital and Horizontal Integration/ Out Sourcing. Thomas A. Stewart
uses the term intellectual capital26
to describe the investment an organization makes in
knowledge. It is composed of firstly, human capital- the knowledge inside the heads of
employees. Secondly, customer capital- the knowledge inside the heads of customers that
decides to buy. Finally, structural capital- the knowledge that resides in the company itself.
Investment for knowledge mobilization is the prerequisite for EBO. There are two options
available, one is outsourcing27
the learned, intellectuals and the other is horizontal
integration28
.
CONCLUSIONS
27. In response to the asymmetric attack in homeland and battle space both in peace and
war, EBO is recently conceptualized by the scholars of the West. It focuses essentially on
gaining desired effect rather than the destruction as done in Attrition Based Operation.
Currently, effect based thinking come to the forefront of world affairs, and thought to be the
future of military planning. EBO also provides a versatile application potential that includes
national policy making, corporate strategy and diplomatic dealings, it is of as much relevance
to 'winning- peace' as it is to winning war.
28. Effect Based Approach aims at changing the behavior of the opponent in order to
achieve a desired end state, which occurs when the nodes are influenced through different
lines of operations. EBO identifies that national power assets of diplomacy, information,
military and economy are to be used to bring in desired change. On the other hand, threat can
no longer be viewed as an objective; rather to be analyzed as a compound system having
political, military, economic, social and other dimensions like infrastructure and information. In
26
Thomas A. Stewart, Intellectual Capital: The New Wealth of Organizations,1997, http://en.wikipedia. org/wiki
27
Outsourcing is the act of one company contracting with another company to provide services that might otherwise be
performed by in-house employees. Outsourcing is done mainly to manage space, time and other resource constrains.
28
The merger of companies at the same stage of production in the same or different industries. Here it is meant to
integrate the learned of different faculty with military for knowledge mobilization.
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these context three domains, namely, physical, information and cognitive domain are identified
by the scholars, where EBO deals with cognitive domain for shaping the behavior. The link
between action and behavior is again complex because it involves numerous interdependent
variables. Thus a given action can produce infinite variety of effects and each of these may
produce additional indirect, cumulative and cascading effects.
29. One of the greatest victories of Islam- Conquest of Mecca in 631 AD is evaluated in
light of EBO. It is no wondering, that Mohammed (s) devised the most primitive and the most
successful EBO before fourteen hundred years. Correct assessment of asymmetric threat and
winning the hearts and minds strategy enabled him to do so. Amazingly UN system is also
found to be following the EBO, just because it is involved in ‘shaping the behavior’ of rebel
rather fighting out. Both the examples speak about true peace psyche of the planner, so we
may conclude peaceful solutions of a conflict drive towards successful EBO. ‘Peacekeepers
BD army’ should also enlist EBO, to keep pace with this modernization, by horizontally
integrating the national power components.
30. Horizontal integration/ out sourcing of intellectuals for knowledge mobilization is the key
to success. After critically analyzing numerous strategies pursued in corporate, many are
found to be adaptable in EBO. In the realm of psychology consumer behavior, organizational
behavior, cognitive dissonance, cognitive bias, and core ideology are found to suitable in
shaping behavior. In dominion of technology used by the corporate strategy driven from
information technology, quantitative marketing research, network society and intellectual
capital might be adopted with necessary modifications to fit the requirement of effect based
operations.
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RECOMMENDATIONS
31. Analyzing the global security scenario and the latest concepts of warfighting this essay
recommends the following:
a. With the drift towards MOOTW training incorporating the civilian counterpart,
strategists of BD army might also think of integrating other national elements of power
for ‘shaping the behavior’ of adversaries in future.
b. Knowledge Mobilization in support of effect based operation is of vital
importance for its success. Corporate strategic management tools on psychology and
technology will be fruitful for understanding of shaping behavior.
Total Words- 4030
Md Wahidul Haque, psc
Major
DAA&QMG
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403 Battle Group
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