Jim Burke

1. HOW DESIGN THINKING CAN MAKE YOU A
MORE INNOVATIVE AND EFFECTIVE FUTURIST
(SELECTED EXTRACTS FROM MASTER CLASS)
San Francisco
World Futures Society Master Class
Jim Burke
July 24, 2015
Reviewed/Approved under export control compliance “EGL-CR00388”

2. AGENDA
Time
Activity
8:00-8:20
§ Overview
8:20-9:00
§ Think about the future in Seven Steps
9:00-9:45
§ Five Steps of Design Thinking
§ Interviews
9:45-10:00
§ Break
10:00-11:15
§ Interviews (Continued)
§ Select business/non-profit/personal scenario topic
11:15-12:00
§ Create scenario as prototype
12:00-12:45
§ Lunch/Break time—on own
12:45-1:00
§ Morning recap
1:00-2:00
§ Share their prototype scenarios
§ “Stress test” scenario against Define requirements
2:00-2:15
§ Break
2:15-3:00
§ Refine the scenarios using the insights from the stress test
§ Conduct a “final” test
3:00-3:30
§ Wrap up and Evaluation
2

3. Innovation
Design
Futures
3

4. OUR PROPOSED ROLES TODAY
Yours
• Leader
• Cooperative, innovative
thinker
• Strategic planner
• Decision maker
• Bold scout on an expedition
into design and the future
• Collaborative, Interactive
Student & Teacher
Will you give you and me
permission to act in those roles?
Mine
• Interactive expedition guide
• Observer
• Teacher and Student
• Time horizon watcher
• Scribe and reporter to you
4

5. AGENDA
Activity
§ Overview
§ Think about the future in Seven Steps
§ Five Steps of Design Thinking
§ Interviews
§ Break
§ Interviews
§ Select business/non-profit/personal scenario topic
§ Create scenario as prototype
§ Lunch/Break time—on own
§ Morning recap
§ Share their prototype scenarios
§ “Stress test” scenario against Define requirements
§ Break
§ Refine the scenarios using the insights from the stress test
§ Conduct a “final” test
§ Wrap up and Evaluation
5

6. SEVEN STEPS TO THE FUTURE
1. Lay the Foundation
2. Change the Frame
3. Challenge the Experts
4. Tell Stories
5. Live and Work in the
Future
6. Walk Back to Today
7. Shape the Future
6

7. Research, synthesize, analyze, baseline
STEP 1: LAYING THE FOUNDATION
• Determine your client’s needs
• Leverage quality futures work
• Avoid duplication of effort
• Identify historic trends,
attractors, and barriers
• Dig deep into specific topics
7

8. STEEP
Identify, collect and analyze information
Categorize stakeholder interests
Identify implications
Understand relationships
SOCIAL
TECHNICAL
ECONOMIC
ENVIRONMENT
POLITICAL
8

9. ANALYZE TRENDS AS POTENTIAL CONVERGENTS
Plan/Trend Social Technical Environmental Economic Political
Organizational
Description
Vision/Goals/
Objectives
Organizational
Needs
Stakeholder
Desires
Early Warning
Monitoring
Can be used to identify forces
that affect needs categories
Replace with your own needs for studying the future
9

10. STEP 2: CHANGE THE FRAME
• Reveal client biases
and assumptions about future
• Organizational
• Technological
• Values
• Establish system
interrelationships
• Move into the future
Open, broaden, challenge, model
10
Source: World Bank

11. STEP 3: CHALLENGE THE EXPERTS
• Expert ≠ Futurist
• Challenge expert assumptions/
biases
• Engage real world complexities
• Paint the range of futures
TRANSITION TO UCAVS
PERMITS RETOOLING
FOR ROBOTIC
PRODUCTION
LARG
E
CO
NSTRUCTIO
N
FULLY
AUTO
M
ATED
Interviews, workshops, surveys
"There will never be a bigger plane built.”
- A Boeing engineer, after the first flight of
the 10-passenger 247
11

12. STEP 4: TELL STORIES
• Develop a range of
scenarios using STEEP
• Radical success/failure
• Probable, preferred,
undesired
• Illustrative
• Explore wild cards (+/-)
Context, relations, immersion
hitchBOT and David Harris Smith, July 16, 2015,
Salem, Mass.
12

13. STEP 5: LIVE AND WORK IN THE FUTURE
• Work through the implications
and impacts of each scenario
• Highlight possible unintended
consequences (+/-)
• Select preferred future (your
vision)
Implications, impacts, vision
13

14. STEP 6: WALK BACK TO TODAY
• Backcast a strategy and
roadmap to your preferred
future
• Don’t abandon your client
(or yourself) in the future
• Futures investment is
wasted if you don’t“walk
back to today”
Milestones, indicators, early warning signals
14
Space Technology and Exploration Directorate
Roadmap

15. BE READY TO ANSWER:
This is great stuff
in 2025, but what
do I do about it
this afternoon?
15

16. STEP 7: SHAPE THE FUTURE
• Keep the momentum
• What should be
done today?
• Reposition, plan, change,
invest
• Monitor the future
as it unfolds
• Process, system, or Center
• Think big, start small,
scale
• Early warning watch on scenarios
Act, implement, invest, monitor, build
Actionable Futures
16

17. Early Warning
and
Action
SENSE
Scanning the globe to sense
clues to the future
ANALYZE
Understanding how the future
could affect clients
SHAPE
Setting the foundation to
arm clients to influence
the future
17

18. AREAS OF INTEREST
Control
Influence
Monitor
Scan
• Watch and explore in the scan area
• Actions increase as signals grow in intensity
• Outside scan are unknown unknowns
Probe
Explore
18

19. AGENDA
Activity
§ Overview
§ Think about the future in Seven Steps
§ Five Steps of Design Thinking
§ Interviews
§ Break
§ Interviews
§ Select business/non-profit/personal scenario topic
§ Create scenario as prototype
§ Lunch/Break time—on own
§ Morning recap
§ Share their prototype scenarios
§ “Stress test” scenario against Define requirements
§ Break
§ Refine the scenarios using the insights from the stress test
§ Conduct a “final” test
§ Wrap up and Evaluation
19

20. DESIGN THINKING STEPS
Diving deep to really understand and meet client needs
Detect insights into human-centered problems
Craft initial solutions—quickly
created, tested, refined and
produced
20

21. FORESIGHT AND DT
DT answers three fundamental questions—What is:
21
desirable? feasible?
viable?
human
perspective
technical viewpoint
business reality

22. FORESIGHT AND DT
Foresight answers three fundamental questions—
What could be:
22
desirable? feasible?
viable?
social trends technical trends
business trends

23. NON-LINEAR, MESSY, BUT DISCIPLINED
23

24. GO WIDE, GO NARROW
24
Be inclusive
Be exclusive
Be inclusive
Be exclusive
Let’s spend some time here

25. “INNOVATION WITHOUT EMOTION IS
UNINTERESTING”
The Designful Company, Marty Neumeier
25

26. BE AN EMPATHETIC INTERVIEWER
26
• You are interviewing for understanding
• Not for sales, marketing, or compliance
26
desirable? feasible?
viable?
human
perspective
technical viewpoint
business reality
• Start here
• Go under the casual
statements

27. 5 WHYS
Client wanted a study of the future of Geographical
Information Systems, Global Positioning Systems,
and Remote Sensing
5 Whys
1. Understand how these three related to each other
2. Identify and understand trends and forces affecting these
3. See how the systems could be hacked, manipulated or misused
4. Understand ways to understand the implications
5. Justify funding to prevent or mitigate against the manipulations
27
Never asked about my needs

28. SOME APPROACHES
28
• Why questions
• Weather conditions questions
• And:
• Short questions (no yes/no),
• Attentive listening
• No arguing
• Acceptance of silence while the interviewee thinks
• Capturing everything (interviewer and a recorder)
• Ensuring anonymity

29. SOME POTENTIAL FRAMING QUESTIONS
29
• Why is the future important to you?
• How do you plan for the future?
• When you think about the future, what kinds of
information do you need?
• How have you used information like this?
• Tell me a story about a time you were surprised by
something important that happened and affected you.
• How could you have known this surprise was coming?
• How did this surprise make you feel?
• So, in looking at the future, what sorts of things do
you think you need to know?

30. AGENDA
Activity
§ Overview
§ Think about the future in Seven Steps
§ Five Steps of Design Thinking
§ Interviews
§ Break
§ Interviews
§ Select business/non-profit/personal scenario topic
§ Create scenario as prototype
§ Lunch/Break time—on own
§ Morning recap
§ Share their prototype scenarios
§ “Stress test” scenario against Define requirements
§ Break
§ Refine the scenarios using the insights from the stress test
§ Conduct a “final” test
§ Wrap up and Evaluation
30

31. AGENDA
Activity
§ Overview
§ Think about the future in Seven Steps
§ Five Steps of Design Thinking
§ Interviews
§ Break
§ Interviews
§ Select business/non-profit/personal scenario topic
§ Create scenario as prototype
§ Lunch/Break time—on own
§ Morning recap
§ Share their prototype scenarios
§ “Stress test” scenario against Define requirements
§ Break
§ Refine the scenarios using the insights from the stress test
§ Conduct a “final” test
§ Wrap up and Evaluation
31

32. MINE THE ANSWERS
32
• What jobs need to be done?
• What does client want to do with insights of the
future?
• What are some key unknowns?
• What are some recurring patterns in the answers?
• What stories of the future would benefit the client?

33. AGENDA
Activity
§ Overview
§ Think about the future in Seven Steps
§ Five Steps of Design Thinking
§ Interviews
§ Break
§ Interviews
§ Select business/non-profit/personal scenario topic
§ Create scenario as prototype
§ Lunch/Break time—on own
§ Morning recap
§ Share their prototype scenarios
§ “Stress test” scenario against Define requirements
§ Break
§ Refine the scenarios using the insights from the stress test
§ Conduct a “final” test
§ Wrap up and Evaluation
33

34. FOR WHOM ARE WE DESIGNING AND
FORESEEING?
• Personas help
focus on the
individual
• Creating a story for
the story
• Generally have
multiple personas
for a project
34

35. WHY SCENARIOS?
• Identify the factors needed for better decisions
• To reframe to see new patterns
• To recognize new combinations and options (like
innovation)
35

36. SCENARIOS ARE
• Stories of the future
• Not predictions
• Future context for future decisions
36

37. SCENARIOS AND STORYTELLING
• A story about the future
• May be useful for forecasting
• Most utility when scenarios span alternative
futures
• Engages stakeholders in dialogue and
decisions
37

38. SCENARIOS AND STORYTELLING
• Two types
• Descriptive—integration and extrapolation of
trends
• What “will” be
• Prescriptive—extrapolation of desires
• What you want it to be
• Two frameworks
• Historical
• Synthetic
• Many possible formats
38

39. PROTOTYPE
Make something tangible that clients can interact with
or use to understand how the future might unfold.
• Low cost, easy to make—demonstrates ideas
• Rudimentary storyboards with cartoons
39

40. PROTOTYPE
• Could be as simple as grouping
post-it notes to capture ideas
into scenario themes
• Group them by:
• STEEP category
• Major drivers, like energy
costs or demographics
• Details can be specific or
metaphorical
40

41. USING YOUR RESEARCH AND INSIGHTS
41
• Empathetic interviewing
• Persona construction
• Design challenge—scenario topic
• 127 Trends
Please build your prototype scenario

42. AGENDA
Activity
§ Overview
§ Think about the future in Seven Steps
§ Five Steps of Design Thinking
§ Interviews
§ Break
§ Interviews
§ Select business/non-profit/personal scenario topic
§ Create scenario as prototype
§ Lunch/Break time—on own
§ Morning recap
§ Share their prototype scenarios
§ “Stress test” scenario against Define requirements
§ Break
§ Refine the scenarios using the insights from the stress test
§ Conduct a “final” test
§ Wrap up and Evaluation
42

43. AGENDA
Activity
§ Overview
§ Think about the future in Seven Steps
§ Five Steps of Design Thinking
§ Select business/non-profit/personal scenario topic
§ Break
§ Interviews
§ Create scenario as prototype
§ Lunch/Break time—on own
§ Morning recap
§ Share their prototype scenarios
§ “Stress test” scenario against Define requirements
§ Break
§ Refine the scenarios using the insights from the stress test
§ Conduct a “final” test
§ Wrap up and Evaluation
43

44. SNAPSHOT SUMMARY
Foresight is the art of:
• Understanding your own assumptions and
biases
• Being willing to look beyond those
• Stepping outside your comfort zones
• Collecting trends information
• Looking for weak signals and clues
• Understanding through stories
• Pulling out the implications
• Identifying action for today
44

45. SNAPSHOT SUMMARY
Design Thinking aids Foresight:
• By helping to better understand client needs
through empathetic interviewing and
listening—human-centered
• Helps overcome foresight practitioner
biases
• Refines client needs
• Offers low-cost, quick ways to get feedback
and align solutions with needs
45

46. AGENDA
Activity
§ Overview
§ Think about the future in Seven Steps
§ Five Steps of Design Thinking
§ Interviews
§ Break
§ Interviews
§ Select business/non-profit/personal scenario topic
§ Create scenario as prototype
§ Lunch/Break time—on own
§ Morning recap
§ Share their prototype scenarios
§ “Stress test” scenario against Define requirements
§ Break
§ Refine the scenarios using the insights from the stress test
§ Conduct a “final” test
§ Wrap up and Evaluation
46

47. STRESS TEST
47
• To prevent infatuation—we often fall in love
with our products
• To make sure we are addressing the real
needs—we often let our biases get in the way
• To save resources—fail early, fail cheaply

48. CONSIDER YES-AND
• When a team member starts to criticize, suggest the
person use the improv technique of “yes-and,” rather
than “yes-but”
• For example:
The person who downgrades the idea of using a
smartphone to create architecture designs (“yes, but it is
too small”) is motivated to say,
“Yes and it could wirelessly connect to a 3-d printer to
see the architecture idea quickly and in 3-d!”
48

49. AGENDA
Activity
§ Overview
§ Think about the future in Seven Steps
§ Five Steps of Design Thinking
§ Interviews
§ Break
§ Interviews
§ Select business/non-profit/personal scenario topic
§ Create scenario as prototype
§ Lunch/Break time—on own
§ Morning recap
§ Share their prototype scenarios
§ “Stress test” scenario against Define requirements
§ Break
§ Refine the scenarios using the insights from the stress test
§ Conduct a “final” test
§ Wrap up and Evaluation
49

50. AGENDA
Activity
§ Overview
§ Think about the future in Seven Steps
§ Five Steps of Design Thinking
§ Select business/non-profit/personal scenario topic
§ Break
§ Interviews
§ Create scenario as prototype
§ Lunch/Break time—on own
§ Morning recap
§ Share their prototype scenarios
§ “Stress test” scenario against Define requirements
§ Break
§ Refine the scenarios using the insights from the stress test
§ Conduct a “final” test
§ Wrap up and Evaluation
50

51. SUMMARY
51
Combining traditional futures techniques with
complementary, creative DT:
• Provides tools for more fidelity in understanding
client desires and needs
• Enables futurists to craft more feasible solutions and
designing more viable business models at reduced
costs
• Allows fast feedback from clients

52. CONTACT INFORMATION
Jim Burke
burkeje@verizon.net
@burkejames
703-585-9328
52

53. REFERENCES AND RESOURCES
• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IDEO
• Korn, Melissa and Silverman, R.E., “Forget B-School, D-School Is Hot: Design Thinking' Concept Gains Traction as More Programs Offer the
Problem-Solving Courses,” Wall Street Journal, June 7, 2012 http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702303506404577446832178537716,
accessed 14/3/15
• http://www.ideo.com/about/ About IDEO, What We Do, accessed 14/3/15
• World Bank. 2015. World Development Report 2015: Mind, Society and Behavior, Washington, DC: World Bank. Doi: 10.1596/978-1-4648-0342-0.
License: Creative Commons Attribution CC by 3.0 IGO, pp. 62-75.
• Coates, J., “How to Do a Futures Study,” undated slide, original provided to author by Coates in January 2000; also available at
www.josephcoates.com
• For example, Baumgartner, Jeffrey “Brainstorming Is Not Very Creative,” http://www.jpb.com/creative/bstormbad.php, undated, accessed 14/3/15
• Experience Design: A Framework for Integrating Brand, Experience and Value, Patrick Newberry and Kevin Farnham
• The Service Innovation Handbook Lucy Kimbell
• The Tao Of Innovation Teng-Kee Tan, Hsien Seow, Sue Tan Toyofuku
• Change by Design, Tim Brown
• The Designful Company Marty Neumeier
• A Fine Line Hartmut Esslinger
• The Design Of Business, Roger Martin
• The Opposable Mind, Roger Martin
• Designing for the Digital Age, Kim Goodwin
• Designing Interactions, Bill Moggridge
• Design Futures in Action, Kelliher and Byrne
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases
• http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/07/150709113201.htm, Graphene gets competition as a semiconductor: Black arsenic-phosphorus
• http://www.gilcommunity.com/blog/does-road-manufacturing-40-begin-here/, Does the Road to Manufacturing 4.0 Begin Here?
• http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/techtank/posts/2015/06/9-future-of-iot-part-2?
cid=00900015020089101US0001-07101&imm_mid=0d527e&cmp=em-iot-na-na-newsltr_20150716, Sketching out the Internet of Things
trendline, Phillip N. Howard
• 2014 Global Go To Think Tank Index Report, James G. McGann
• Stress Testing and Scenario Analysis, International Actuarial Association, July 2013, http://r.search.yahoo.com/
_ylt=A0LEVjTywq9V8AIAaU4nnIlQ;_ylu=X3oDMTE0a3B2azdoBGNvbG8DYmYxBHBvcwMxBHZ0aWQDRkZYVUkzNV8xBHNlYwNzcg--/RV=2/
RE=1437610867/RO=10/RU=http%3a%2f%2fwww.actuaries.org%2fCTTEES_SOLV%2fDocuments%2fStressTestingPaper.pdf/RK=0/
RS=DUqna29ccbUsDqDp1f.pnJa1igo-
• ttp://www.businessinsider.com/false-predictons-2012-5?op=1#ixzz3gduNAxEm
• http://www.scientificcomputing.com/news/2015/07/hitchhiking-robot-embarks-coast-coast-us-tour?
et_cid=4687897&et_rid=745650811&location=top
• Oak tree, http://cdn.morguefile.com/imageData/public/files/d/diannehope/03/l/142728109145mx9.jpg
• Acorn, http://cdn.morguefile.com/imageData/public/files/g/gracey/preview/fldr_2004_09_21/file000908748350.jpg
• 3 people conversing, http://cdn.morguefile.com/imageData/public/files/j/Jusben/10/l/13495898363lfpz.jpg
• STED roadmap, http://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/thumbnails/image/sted-roadmap.jpg
• Framing image, World Bank. 2015. World Development Report 2015: Mind, Society, and Behavior. Washington, DC: World Bank. doi:
10.1596/978-1-4648-0342-0. License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGO
• Funeral, http://www.publicdomainpictures.net/view-image.php?image=40990&picture=my-grandfather-funeral
• Crowd image, http://cdn.morguefile.com/imageData/public/files/s/SDRandCo/05/l/14008730575r9lx.jpg
53

54. REFERENCES AND RESOURCES
• Woman in mirror, http://cdn.morguefile.com/imageData/public/files/p/placardmoncoeur/02/l/13932800226la8x.jpg
54