Presented by John Schmidt and Patricia Sommerville
The traditional linear model of policy making isn't serving government or affiliated organizations in this complex and complicated time. Building on the successful incorporation of foresight methodologies into the policy-making process at last year's Public Service Foresight Network meeting, Patricia and John present a range of creative thinking possibilities to promote engagement, make better, more robust policies, and explore the practical aspects of integrating foresight into the existing policy context of one or a group of organizations.
3. About YOU and Your Experiences
Have you worked with or for an
organization that has formally attempted
to set up a foresight unit or to add a
foresight function to an existing unit?
•How was it mandated and configured,
especially in relation to other units?
•How well did it perform?
•Was it successful (did it survive)?
What are you looking for here?
5. • Anticipatory Governance
• Solving Complicated Problems
• An Interactive System
Policy, Planning, Intelligence,
Foresight
6.
7. The U.S. Government operates using institutions
designed for an era gone by.
The consequences are an increasing number of
collisions with “unforeseeable events” and
opportunities lost.
In chaotic circumstances, small actions can powerfully
influence ultimate outcomes.
We cannot rely indefinitely on crisis management, no
matter how adroit. We need to get ahead of events.
Anticipatory Governance:
8. Not an easy sell, even if there is broad agreement on
the need.
Near-term emergencies always distract from the
longer-term challenges.
The question is how to achieve strategic coherence.
The systems of government for dealing with major
issues are outmoded for today’s kind of problems,
which are “complex” rather than “complicated.”
Anticipatory Governance:
13. Science Fiction
Science Fiction
Foresight
Foresight
Description & ExplanationIntelligence
Policy &
Planning
What is.
What if?
What if?
Assessment, Forecasting & Warning
Assessment, Forecasting & Warning
Reality Space Decision SpaceInformation/Analysis Space
What is
likely.
What is
likely.
•Possible/Imaginable
•Plausible
•Probable/Predictable
•Past/Present
Policy, Planning, Intelligence,
Foresight
14. Plausible
Predictable
Foresight
Intelligence/
Research
• Emerging trends
• Scenarios/what-ifs
• Weak signals
• Outliers, Black swans
• Resiliency factors
• Drivers & Signposts
• Current/Operational
• Tactical forecast
• Strategic forecast
• Current trends
• Statistical predictions
• Monitoring/Alerts
Planning
& Policy
Decisions
Actions
HorizonNear Far
Range of interest
Requirements
& Tasking
Outcomes:
•Intended
•Unintended
Feedback
Feedback
Feedback
Feedback
A Complete and Interactive System
25. Employee morale fluctuates during each phaseEmployee morale fluctuates during each phase
Current State Transition Period Future StateCurrent State Transition Period Future State
Morale
Time
Human Impact
Denial or
False Hope
Immobilized
Anger or
Panic
Depression
Letting Go/Accepting Reality
Testing
Merging past
and present
Internalization/
Commitment
Change Management Stages
32. Keys to Unlocking Senior Leaders
• Know your audience
− ‘What’s in it for me?’
• Enthuse, with evidence
− Inspire, connect, persuade
• Anticipate resistance
− Make mitigation part of the strategy
• Open strong, finish stronger
34. “If the person you are talking to
doesn't appear to be listening,
be patient. It may simply be
that he has a small piece of fluff
in his ear.”
A.A. Milne, Winnie-the-Pooh
35. Testing Engagement
• What did you get from this?
• What is your key ‘takeaway’?
• What will you do with it?
• What else did you want to get?
36. - Contact -
John Schmidt
jjjs@rogers.com
Patricia Sommerville
patricia.j.sommerville@gmail.com