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Creative Thinking Steps
in Policy Development
• John Schmidt
• Patricia Sommerville
World Future Society
July 12, 2014
• Policy, Planning, Intelligence & Foresight
• Creative Tools
− Creative Questioning
− Organizational Effectiveness
− Change Management
• Keys to Presenting to Senior Leaders
Topics
About YOU and Your Experiences
Have you worked with or for an
organization that has formally attempted
to set up a foresight unit or to add a
foresight function to an existing unit?
•How was it mandated and configured,
especially in relation to other units?
•How well did it perform?
•Was it successful (did it survive)?
What are you looking for here?
Policy, Planning,
Intelligence & Foresight
• Anticipatory Governance
• Solving Complicated Problems
• An Interactive System
Policy, Planning, Intelligence,
Foresight
The U.S. Government operates using institutions
designed for an era gone by.
The consequences are an increasing number of
collisions with “unforeseeable events” and
opportunities lost.
In chaotic circumstances, small actions can powerfully
influence ultimate outcomes.
We cannot rely indefinitely on crisis management, no
matter how adroit. We need to get ahead of events.
Anticipatory Governance:
Not an easy sell, even if there is broad agreement on
the need.
Near-term emergencies always distract from the
longer-term challenges.
The question is how to achieve strategic coherence.
The systems of government for dealing with major
issues are outmoded for today’s kind of problems,
which are “complex” rather than “complicated.”
Anticipatory Governance:
Anticipatory Governance, Practical Upgrades, L. Fuerth, p.4
Foresight is:
Planning
Policy, Planning, Intelligence
The Futures Cone
Dr Joseph Voros (adapted from Henchey, 1978)
Science Fiction
Science Fiction
Foresight
Foresight
Description & ExplanationIntelligence
Policy &
Planning
What is.
What if?
What if?
Assessment, Forecasting & Warning
Assessment, Forecasting & Warning
Reality Space Decision SpaceInformation/Analysis Space
What is
likely.
What is
likely.
•Possible/Imaginable
•Plausible
•Probable/Predictable
•Past/Present
Policy, Planning, Intelligence,
Foresight
Plausible
Predictable
Foresight
Intelligence/
Research
• Emerging trends
• Scenarios/what-ifs
• Weak signals
• Outliers, Black swans
• Resiliency factors
• Drivers & Signposts
• Current/Operational
• Tactical forecast
• Strategic forecast
• Current trends
• Statistical predictions
• Monitoring/Alerts
Planning
& Policy
Decisions
Actions
HorizonNear Far
Range of interest
Requirements
& Tasking
Outcomes:
•Intended
•Unintended
Feedback
Feedback
Feedback
Feedback
A Complete and Interactive System
? Planning
Policy, Planning, Intelligence,
Foresight
Intelligence
+Foresight
?
Policy
+Foresight
Planning
+Foresight
Policy, Planning, Intelligence,
Foresight
Planning
Policy, Planning, Intelligence,
Foresight
Intelligence
Policy
Planning
Foresight
Intelligence
Policy
Planning
Foresight Intelligence
Policy
Planning
Foresight
Intelligence
Policy
Planning
Foresight
Intelligence
Policy
Planning
Foresight
Intelligence
Policy
Planning
Foresight
Intelligence
Policy
Planning
Foresight
Intelligence
Policy
Planning
Foresight
External Foresight SMEs External Foresight SMEs
Policy, Planning, Intelligence,
Foresight
Creative Tools
How to Create Engagement
• Understanding Your Organizational
Effectiveness
• Change Management: Moving from
No to Yes
• Creative Questioning
Organizational
Effectiveness
Vision….
Future…
Intuitive….
Horizon
Detailed…
Concrete…
Observable…
Specific
Practical…
Face-to-Face…
Measurable…
Inspiration…
Investment…
Contribution…
Communication
The Organizations Alive! Model
Change Management
• Awareness
• Desire
• Knowledge
• Ability
• Reinforcement
• Awareness of the need for change
• Desire to participate and support
the change
• Knowledge on how to change
• Ability to implement required skills
and behaviors
• Reinforcement to sustain the
change
ADKAR
© Prosci.com
Employee morale fluctuates during each phaseEmployee morale fluctuates during each phase
Current State Transition Period Future StateCurrent State Transition Period Future State
Morale
Time
Human Impact
Denial or
False Hope

Immobilized

Anger or
Panic
Depression

Letting Go/Accepting Reality
Testing

Merging past
and present

Internalization/
Commitment

Change Management Stages
Integrate Change Management and
Project Management
© Prosci.com
The Change Management Team
Change
Senior
leaders
Senior
leaders
Project
team
Project
team
EmployeesEmployeesManagers &
supervisors
Managers &
supervisors
Change
management
© Prosci.com
Creative Questioning
Creative Questioning
• Ask the audience questions that :
− make assumptions explicit
− enable action
− address issues
• Use a tool to anticipate questions, create
action
− Starburst
− Spiral
Starburst Questioning
Issue
Why? What?
W
hen?
How
?
W
h
o
?
Spiral ‘Call to Action’
Tool
IssueTiming
Steps
Success
Keys to Unlocking Senior Leaders
• Know your audience
− ‘What’s in it for me?’
• Enthuse, with evidence
− Inspire, connect, persuade
• Anticipate resistance
− Make mitigation part of the strategy
• Open strong, finish stronger
The Four Domains
Contextual
Organizational
Interpersonal
Personal
“If the person you are talking to
doesn't appear to be listening,
be patient. It may simply be
that he has a small piece of fluff
in his ear.”
A.A. Milne, Winnie-the-Pooh
Testing Engagement
• What did you get from this?
• What is your key ‘takeaway’?
• What will you do with it?
• What else did you want to get?
- Contact -
John Schmidt
jjjs@rogers.com
Patricia Sommerville
patricia.j.sommerville@gmail.com

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Creative Thinking Steps In Policy Development