2020 was a year like no other. Instead of a big year for climate action and progress on other sustainability issues, the world was disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic fallout. As we look ahead, there are signs of hope. We look to the big moments, trends and people that will shape the world in 2021. For the 18th annual Stories to Watch, WRI President and CEO Andrew Steer shared insights into why 2021 could set a foundation for a cleaner, sustainable and more equitable future. Event Page: https://www.wri.org/events/2021/01/stories-watch-2021 Twitter Moment: https://twitter.com/i/events/1349378807036334081

3. Image: Wikimedia Commons/San Salvatore

4. Image: Wikimedia/Us Air National Guard - Crystal Housman

5. Image: Associated Press

6. Image: Alamy

7. Image: Associated Press

8. Image: Wikimedia Commons

9. Image: Associated Press

10. Image: Alamy

11. Image: Flickr/ Paul Kagame

12. Image: Associated Press

13. Image: Associated Press

14. Image: Alamy

15. Image: Alamy

16. Image: Lisa Ferdinando, DOD

18. Historically, pandemics have forced humans to
break with the past and imagine their world
anew. This one is no different. It is a portal, a
gateway between one world and the next.
- Arundhati Roy,
Indian Author and Activist

19. We’ve Been Here Before: 1920
A Return to Normalcy
Our need is not heroics ... but normalcy;
not revolution ... but adjustment;
not the dramatic, but equipoise.
– President Warren Harding
Image: Wikimedia Commons

20. What the Pandemic Has Taught Us
We are vulnerable
We have failed to address social justice
We need to cooperate
We need science
We can adapt
We need community

21. A New Era?
1945–1980: The Era of the State
1980–2020: The Era of the Market
2021– The Era of …
Community Cooperation Resilience
Tribalism Deglobalization

23. Photo: Flickr/Illinois Springfield
This is a special moment in our
history. Just as people of all faiths
and no faiths, and all backgrounds,
creeds and colors banded together
decades ago to fight for equality
and justice in a peaceful, orderly,
nonviolent fashion, we must do
so again.
- Rep. John Lewis (1940-2020)

24. Equality and Social Justice
Photo: Johnny Miller/Unequal Scenes
71% of the world’s
population live in
countries where
inequality has grown
since 1990

25. COVID-19 Has Exposed Racial and Social Injustice
Black, Indigenous &
Latino Americans
2.7X more likely to
have died from
COVID than White
Americans
Image: Associated Press

26. What Shape For the Recovery?
Adapted from US Chamber of Commerce
WHAT TO WATCH

27. Who Will Get the Vaccine? And When?
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, as of December 18, 2020.
WHAT TO WATCH

28. How Will Companies Change?
From Shareholder to
Stakeholder Capitalism?
Image: Flickr/ Colt International Unlimited
WHAT TO WATCH

29. World Trade: Will it Unify or Divide Us?
Photo: Flickr/Overseas Development Initiative
• WTO Director-General
Selection
• Global Supply Chains
• Onshoring, Nearshoring
WHAT TO WATCH

30. Will Multilateralism Rebound?
G7: Summer
G20: October
UNSG 75th Report: September
Photo: Flickr/Palácio do Planalto
WHAT TO WATCH

33. $13 Trillion in Stimulus Already, More on the Way
83% from G20
Source: IMF, WRI, Oct 2020

34. Stimulus Funds Are Deeply Unbalanced
Source: IMF, WRI, Oct 2020

35. Emissions Fell in 2020; Not For the Right Reasons
Source: the Global Carbon Project

36. Deeper Reductions Needed to Hit Net Zero
Source: the Global Carbon Project

37. What we do now will not
only reshape our economies
and societies; it will also
reshape humanity's future
on this planet…
– Kristalina Georgieva
Managing Director, IMF
Image: Flickr/IMF

38. Green Investments Can Be a Better Job Creator
Source: IEA, IMF

39. Will More Countries Embrace Green Growth?
Source: Vivid Economics Updated as of mid-Dec
WHAT TO WATCH

40. Will Others Follow EU's Landmark Green Deal?
30% of $900B to be climate-friendly
$21.5B for Just Transition Fund
Image: Wikimedia/Diliff
WHAT TO WATCH

41. What Happens to Development Assistance?
• Bilateral aid?
• Multilateral: A Special IDA?
Image: Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security
WHAT TO WATCH

44. Big Opportunities…
Prioritized Climate in Campaign:
• $2 trillion in clean infrastructure
• 100% clean electricity by 2035
• Net Zero emissions by 2050
• Commitment to environmental justice
Image: Alamy

45. From This…

46. …to This

47. What Will Biden Do in the 1st 100 Days?
• Rejoin Paris Agreement
• Reinstate Environmental
Regulations
• Grant California Waiver to Set
Clean Car Standards
• Issue Environmental Justice
Executive Order
• Suspend New Fossil Fuel
Leases on Federal Land
WHAT TO WATCH

48. What Will Be in the New US Climate Commitment?
• Emissions reduction target: 45-50% by 2030?
• Role of federal, state and local governments
• Adaptation measures
Image: Caleb Perez/Unsplash
WHAT TO WATCH

49. Can Climate Breakthrough the Gridlock?
2021 Potential legislation:
• Another stimulus bill
• Infrastructure
• Research and development
• Natural climate solutions
• GCF Funding
WHAT TO WATCH

50. Will Biden Deliver on Environmental Justice?
Committed 40% of clean energy
investment to benefit
disadvantaged communities.
Image: Istockphoto
WHAT TO WATCH

51. Will US Climate Diplomacy Strengthen
Ties with Other Countries?
• Reset relations with EU & UK?
• A climate deal with India?
• Improve ties with Canada and Mexico?
• Confrontation or cooperation with China?
Image: Alamy
WHAT TO WATCH

52. Will US Inspire Ambition on Road to Glasgow?
• What happens at Global Climate Summit in
1st 100 Days?
• Will US step up its climate finance?
• Will other countries re-engage?
Image: istockphoto
WHAT TO WATCH

55. From Patient One to Recovery
2021: China’s
projected growth 8.2%
Source: WRI and OECD

56. Progress on Extreme Poverty
Extreme poverty in China has
decreased by nearly
100 million from 2012 to 2020
Image: Unsplash/Max van den Oetelaar

57. Raising the Bar on Climate Change

58. How China Benefits From Accelerating to Net-Zero
Source: WRI China

59. Will China Strengthen Targets?
Image: Jason Chao/Unsplash
March: National People’s Congress
14th Five Year Plan (2021-25)
• Carbon intensity
• Energy intensity
• Energy use
• Other environmental protections
Updated NDC…?
• Peak emissions year
• A cap on coal
• Extend to non-CO2 gases
WHAT TO WATCH

60. Will China's National Carbon Market Take Off?
Image: Freeman Zhou/Unsplash
WHAT TO WATCH
Launching in February; starting with power sector
• How strong will the cap be?
• How quickly will it expand to other sectors?

61. Will China Shift its BRI Strategy in 2021?
BRI International Forum: April
• New metrics
for environmental impact?
• What scale? What mix?
Source: International Institute for Green Finance
WHAT TO WATCH
138+ countries

62. Will China Lead by Example at the Biodiversity COP?
WHAT TO WATCH
Biodiversity COP 15 in Kunming

63. Can Climate Be a Bridge in Tense Times?
Challenges:
• Trade
• Carbon-border adjustments
• Overseas finance
Images: Wikimedia
President Xi
China
President
von der Leyen
European Union
President Biden
USA
WHAT TO WATCH

66. Nature Rising in 2021…
September
Autumn? NovemberOctober
January
TBD
September

67. Nature Is Key to Fighting Climate Change…
• Eliminate emissions from
land use
• Maximize carbon removal
from the atmosphere
Image: Flickr/World Bank Photo Collection

68. …Feeding a Growing Population…
Need to close 56% food
gap to feed 10 billion
people by 2050
Image: Unsplash/Deepak Kumar

69. …And Strengthening Economies
Transitioning to a
“Nature-Positive
Economy” could
create 395M jobs &
$10T in business
opportunities by
2030
Image: Shutterstock

70. But We Are Speeding in the Wrong Direction
• 1 million species at risk
• Annual tropical primary forest
loss increased 41% since 2014
Image: Unsplash/Marcus Kauffman

71. A Four-Pronged Strategy to Realize the Value of Nature

72. Will New Plans Balance Nature
With Food?
• EU’s “Farm to Fork” strategy
• Biden’s agriculture plan
• Agriculture in COP26
commitments
• Double funding for CGIAR?
Image: Unsplash/Ricardo Gomez Angel
WHAT TO WATCH

73. Will Nations Commit to Protect 30% of All
Land and Sea?
UN Conference
on Biodiversity
Kunming, China
Image: Flickr/Rod Waddington
WHAT TO WATCH

74. Will Nature Goals Include Indigenous
Peoples’ Land Rights?
~50% of world's
land is indigenous
and community
land; yet only 10% is
legally recognized
Image: Flickr/Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security
WHAT TO WATCH

75. Will Countries Accelerate Action to
Reduce Food Waste?
• China's “Clean Plate”
Campaign
• Denmark and the UK are
over halfway to reducing
food waste by 50%
Image: istockphoto
WHAT TO WATCH

76. Will Breakthroughs in Monitoring
Spur Restoration?
Source: Global Restoration Initiative
Bonn Challenge:
210M ha committed
14M ha in progress
Coming Soon:
Restoration Watch
WHAT TO WATCH
61 countries

77. Sorting out Net Zero, Compensation and Offsets?
Image: Koekoes/Flickr
WHAT TO WATCH
Billions of dollars at stake.
But what rules of the game?

80. 2020: Ridership Fell Off a Cliff
Source: WRI analysis through Google Mobility Index 2020

81. Transit Systems Near Bankruptcy
In 2020:
• EU $50B shortfall in
public transit
• Brazil lost $1.3B
in rail service revenue
• India lost $7B
in bus revenue/mo
• NYC needs $12B
to stay afloat
Image: AP

82. An Issue of Equity
In the US…
• Black households are 3X more
likely to be without access to a
vehicle than white households
Image: Flickr/International Monetary Fund

83. Low Income Transit Users Hit Hardest
In Africa, public transport cuts helped
push an additional 9% of population into
extreme poverty since COVID
Image: Zahara Milele

84. Will More Cities Put Public Transit Ahead of Cars?
• Nigeria committed ~$200M to informal transport operators
• Austin, TX voted for a $7B tax to improve public transit
• London set to expand Ultra Low Emissions Zone
Image: Flickr/International Monetary Fund
WHAT TO WATCH

85. Will the Stimulus Create Green Transport Jobs?
Image: Alamy
Green recovery
could create
52M jobs; with
20% in the
transport sector
WHAT TO WATCH

86. Will Electrification of Public Transport Take Hold?
Electric bus market may
grow by 50% in 2021
Image: Flickr/hans-johnson
WHAT TO WATCH

87. Will Cities Seize the Opportunity to Reimagine Streets?
400+ bicycle and pedestrian
interventions in 218 cities
since March 2020
Bogota, Kampala & Paris
Image: WRI Ross Center for Sustainable Cities
WHAT TO WATCH

88. A New Era for Cities?
June: World Resources Report
Towards a More Equal City
Image: Flickr/C40
WHAT TO WATCH

91. Net Zero Targets Taking Off
Source: CAT; Climate Watch; World Resources Institute
61 countries
representing
53% of global
GHG emissions

92. Corporate Momentum Building
Source: World Resources Institute
1,100+ Companies Committed to
Science Based Targets

93. So Too in Cities
Image: WRI/Flickr
Over 10,500 cities, representing
1 billion people, have joined the
Global Covenant of Mayors

95. We Need to Accelerate the Acceleration

96. What’s Needed
1. NDCs: Plans for the 2020s
2. Negotiating Rules of the Game
3. Finance
4. Race to Zero
Photo: World Resources Institute/Flickr

97. Plans for the 2020s: How Ambitious Are the NDCs?
Source: WRI analysis
WHAT TO WATCH
70 updated NDCs so far.
43 are more ambitious

98. Plans for the 2020s: How Ambitious Are the NDCs?
Source: WRI analysis
WHAT TO WATCH
What year will
China peak?
Will US commit to
45-50% emission
reduction by 2030?

99. Plans for the 2020s: How Ambitious Are the NDCs?
Source: WRI analysis
WHAT TO WATCH
Will Japan, South Korea,
New Zealand and Canada align
their 2030 and net zero targets?

100. Plans for the 2020s: How Ambitious Are the NDCs?
Source: WRI analysis
WHAT TO WATCH
Will India, South Africa
and Indonesia step up?

101. Plans for the 2020s: How Ambitious Are the NDCs?
Source: WRI analysis
WHAT TO WATCH
What about the laggards?

102. The Negotiations: What Must be Agreed?
Image: iStock
• Article 6 on carbon markets
• Common timelines for NDCs
• Rules for the Global Stocktake
• Finance and solidarity package
WHAT TO WATCH
November
COP26
Glasgow, Scotland

103. How Will Development Finance Respond?
• $100 Billion delivered?
• Debt forgiveness?
• Paris alignment of MDBs?
Image: Flickr/World Bank Photo Collection
WHAT TO WATCH

104. Will Adaptation Get the Attention It Deserves?
Image: Shutterstock.
WHAT TO WATCH
January
Climate Adaptation Summit
The Netherlands
Half of all climate
finance for adaptation?

105. Will the Financial System Truly Become Part
of the Solution?
Image: Bank of England/Flickr
WHAT TO WATCH
• More Commitments to Net Zero?
• Mandatory Reporting of Climate Risk?

106. Will the Race to Zero Deliver Sector Breakthroughs?
Source: Race to Zero | Photo: World Resources Institute/Flickr
• Elimination of internal combustion engine
• Zero carbon shipping
• Zero carbon buildings
WHAT TO WATCH

107. Will Commitments in 2021 Add Up?
Source: World Resources Institute, CAT, Climate Watch
WHAT TO WATCH

108. Image: Chris Yakimov/Flickr

110. AFTER THE PANDEMIC | How Will the World Reset?
BIGGEST ECONOMIC STIMULUS IN HISTORY | Will It Be Green? Will It Be Fair?
GAME ON | Will the Biden-Harris Administration Recharge Climate Action?
THE ROAD AHEAD FOR CHINA | What Will It Prioritize in 2021?
NATURE POSITIVE | A Breakthrough Year?
TRANSPORTATION DISRUPTION | Will Public Transit Survive?
THE ROAD TO GLASGOW | 2021: The Inflection Point?