2019 in Security

1. This Year in Security2019 was the first year of an administration
which, after two decisively violent years in Brazil, was elected with a
speech heavily focused on public security. To put things into context,
it must be noted that 2017 was the most violent year in the history of
Brazil, with a total 65.602 homicides, equivalent to 31,6 for every
100.000 inhabitants, according to the yearly report Atlas da
Violência, by the Institute for Applied Economic Research (IPEA). For
means of comparison, most European countries have rates of 2-4
homicides per 100.000 inhabitants. However staggering, it is worth
reminding that homicide rates vary greatly across Brazil, between
states, cities and even neighborhoods. São Paulo (ironically the most
populous state) saw the lowest state rate in 2017, 10,5, while Rio
Grande do Norte, in the Northeastern region, saw a 67,2
rate.Consequentially, the 2018 elections were held having public
security as one of the main backdrops, even more so as the Michel
Temer administration undertook a federal military intervention in
the state of Rio de Janeiro. Then-candidate Jair Bolsonaro, who
ultimately emerged victorious, made several promises on the matter,
using the theme as leverage to gain popularity. Among some of his
campaign promises regarding public security,
2019 in Secutity

2. Gun ownership
Long a proponent of loosening gun ownership and open carry rules – an idea which appeals
to those wary of urban violence as well as rural landowners seeking greater guarantees
against land invasion – Bolsonaro introduced Bill 3723/2019, which alters the 2003
Disarmament Statute and could greatly impact security levels in Brazil. In January, Velours
had an interview with Bruno Langeani and Carolina Ricardo, from the Instituto Sou da Paz
think-tank, regarding the likely impact of softening rules on firearms for the larger public. The
researchers claimed that:“The 1990s saw the highest number of weapons legally bought in
Brazil, and were also the period during which the rate of homicides increased the most.
Scientific research in Brazil and around the world is almost unanimous in associating
more firearms with more crime. It is key that people, even those who do not want to own
firearms, know this fact.Weapons in homes do not dissuade robbery and increase the
probability of homicides, suicides, and accidents (especially involving children).”In regards
to violence against women, the researchers highlighted that “Brazil has the fifth highest
figures in the world for women’s violent deaths. In 2016, of the 2.339 such deaths, 560
happened at home. In the State of São Paulo, according to the Prosecutor’s Office Center for
Gender, two out of three women were killed at home, with 85% of perpetrators being victims’
husbands, partners or former cohabitants. The prospect is that this type of crime could
increase, not only because gun ownership will be made easier, but also because the Bill
would extend the validity of gun permits – the period during which owners need not pass
through psychological tests, criminal background checks and the like – from 5 to 10 years”.

3. “Anticrime Package”
The so-called “Anticrime Package” is a bill idealized
by Minister of Justice and Public Security Sergio Moro
which changes several dispositions in Brazil’s Penal
Code. The bill was mainly put together as part of an
effort to combat corruption and organized and
violent crime, and has already been approved by
both Houses of legislature. The project originally
included alterations, such as the possibility of
imprisonment for those convicted in the second
instance by an appellate court (even before a final,
unappealable conviction) and a legal device called
“preclusive unlawfulness”, which would allegedly
preclude trial against policemen who caused
casualties during situations of stress and “violent
emotion”, such as amid intense shootouts – both of
which were altered by Congress, partly due to
revelations which affected Minister Moro’s political
standing.

4. “Anticrime Package”
The so-called “Anticrime Package” is a bill idealized
by Minister of Justice and Public Security Sergio Moro
which changes several dispositions in Brazil’s Penal
Code. The bill was mainly put together as part of an
effort to combat corruption and organized and
violent crime, and has already been approved by
both Houses of legislature. The project originally
included alterations, such as the possibility of
imprisonment for those convicted in the second
instance by an appellate court (even before a final,
unappealable conviction) and a legal device called
“preclusive unlawfulness”, which would allegedly
preclude trial against policemen who caused
casualties during situations of stress and “violent
emotion”, such as amid intense shootouts – both of
which were altered by Congress, partly due to
revelations which affected Minister Moro’s political
standing.

5. “Em Frente, Brasil”
Finally, the “Em Frente, Brasil” program (“Onwards,
Brazil”), which was sanctioned in August and has
been implemented in particularly dangerous cities in
the states of Pará, Pernambuco, Espírito Santo,
Paraná and Goiás, aims to use a holistic approach to
combat insecurity, based on four focal
points: territorial focus, qualified repression, social
prevention, management and governance.The
program has so far been considered successful, as
already some of the towns have seen a decrease in
violent crime. In all, robbery went down by 29% in the
September-to-November period comparison
between 2018 and 2019, and homicides have gone
down by 44.7%, according to a report by the National
Public Security Information System (Sinesp). In case
the medium-to-long term effects of the program are
deemed favorable, its actions and directrices are
expected to be replicated in larger cities and,
eventually, nationwide.

6. Fall in homicides
Although there are still no consolidated datasets for the entire year of
2019, month-on-month data strongly points towards a sensitive fall in
violence (or, more specifically, in homicide figures), in continuation with a
tendency already verified in 2018, in comparison with the bespoke 2017
peak. According to data from Sinesp, Brazil saw 26.232 homicides
between January and August (latest consolidated month), compared to
33.705 during the same period last year, a 22% decrease – up from a 10%
fall in the 2017-18 comparison.Specialists differ in attributing the fall to a
single matter. Some point to factors such as the creation of a National
Public Security Plan in 2018, which for the first time acknowledged the
nationwide (and multinational) character of Brazil’s main drug-trafficking
groups, and aimed to provide guidelines for cooperation between the
federal and state governments. Others mention temporary truces
between large drug groups – such as São Paulo’s First Capital Command
(PCC) and Rio’s Red Command (CV) – which are unstable and could end
at any moment. Governments have also tried to capitalize and take
responsibility for the improvements, although this is disputable. Minister
Moro, for instance, directly attributed the fall in crime figures as a form of
preconizing his “Anticrime Package”

7. Analisys By
The People Behind The
Articles
BIANCA SALÍCIO
Risk Analyst
Risk Analyst
RAPHAEL LAGNADO

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