The Whole Equation: The Vice President as Advisor
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This is a continuation of my PhD dissertation that is more focused on the question what kinds of unique advice the VP can provide the president.
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The Whole Equation: The Vice President as Advisor
- 1. The Whole Equation The Vice President as Advisor CISSM Forum Aaron Mannes November 6, 2014 1
- 2. Not half a dozen men have ever been able to keep the whole equation of pictures in their heads. F. Scott Fitzgerald, The Last Tycoon Washington is Hollywood for ugly people. Paul Begala 2
- 3. Outline 1. Dissertation Overview: Why & How has the vice presidency emerged as a top presidential advisor 2. Future Work What kind of advice does the President need? 3
- 4. Part 1: From Throttlebottom to Angler I would a great deal rather be anything, say a professor of history, than Vice-President – Theodore “Teddy” Roosevelt, 25th Vice President of the United States …the most dangerous vice president we’ve probably had in American history – Vice President Joe Biden describing his predecessor, Dick Cheney In just a few decades the vice presidency has shifted from “Constitutional appendage” to the “Imperial Vice Presidency” What Changed? • Why has the vice presidency become a source of influence? • Why have presidents been increasingly willing to follow the advice of the vice president? 4
- 5. Methodology • Influence is defined by Paul Light as “an adviser’s ability to change outcomes from what they would have been.” • Measuring influence by surveying the literature and lots & lots of interviews • Process tracing by examining specific instances of vice presidential influence • Little influence from regular interaction between the President and VP 5
- 6. Modern Presidency H1A: When the president is able to select his vice president, the VP is more likely to exercise influence Finding: absence of this factor makes vice presidential influence unlikely (present for 6 of 7 influential VPs) • Until 1940, running mates were usually selected by the party and were often not known by the president or a political rival • Allowing the nominee to select his running mate created the possibility of choosing him based on his skills and compatibility • Example: Martin Van Buren H1B: As the demands on the president have increased, the vice president will have greater opportunities to exercise influence Finding: absence of this factor makes vice presidential influence unlikely (present for 5 of 7 influential VPs) • Despite the number of influential VPs since the advent of the modern presidency, the strength of this factor was that it created the possibility of the modern outsider president • Insider modern presidents did not rely on their VPs nor did pre-modern outsider presidents 6
- 7. The Semi-Institutional Vice Presidency H2A: Vice presidents with their own staff are better able to exercise influence. Finding: absence of this factor makes vice presidential influence unlikely (present for 5 of 5 influential modern VPs) • In the 1970s, VPs were granted substantial personal staff • Staff allowed the VP to follow issues, attend meetings, develop areas of expertise, and use surrogates for influence Example: Dan Quayle – One of two un-influential vice presidents studied, Quayle attracted extremely capable staffers and expanded the VP’s office – Staff helped him push issues of interest like missile defense identified areas where he could play a role 7
- 8. Carter & Mondale Reshape the Vice Presidency 8 H2C: Vice presidents with regular access to the President, and with access to White House meetings and paper-flow for themselves and their staff are better able to exercise influence Finding: absence of this factor makes vice presidential influence impossible (present for 7 of 7 influential VPs) • Without access to the president, the VP cannot exercise influence • Access to White House meetings and paper-flow is also essential in order to know what decisions are being considered
- 9. H2B: Vice presidents with an office in the West Wing are better able to exercise influence Finding: absence of this factor makes vice presidential influence unlikely (present for 5 of 5 influential modern VPs) • Nothing propinks like propinquity • Essence of vice presidential influence is time with the president, it is much easier to see the president with an office down the hall • Policy is made by a process of osmosis • Important, but not essential factor - Mondale’s successor, Bush Sr., did not spend as much time as in West Wing and during Cheney’s period of greatest influence he was often at an undisclosed location 9
- 10. H2D: Vice presidents who are discreet in advancing their policy preferences and publicly loyal to the president are better able to exercise influence Finding: absence of this factor makes vice presidential influence impossible (present for 7of 7 influential VPs) • After consulting his predecessors, particularly his mentor VP Humphrey, VP Mondale adopted a set of low-key influence strategies • Because VPs cannot be fired, they need to be particularly careful to demonstrate loyalty and discretion • Influential VPs have restricted their advice to the president in private or in small trusted groups and publicly supported presidential decisions Example: John C. Calhoun - NOT a model of vice presidential discretion - Headed a political faction and publicly opposed both presidents he served - Later, when he sought to reach out to Jackson, the president was not amenable 10
- 11. Outsiders & Insiders H3A: Outsider presidents are more likely to select running mates for personal and political compatibility, increasing the likelihood that the President will include the VP as a top advisor Finding: Presence of this factor makes vice presidential influence probable (present for 4 of 5 modern influential VPs) H3B: Outsider presidents are more likely to be inexperienced in areas such as national security affairs and not have strong national security teams, thus creating opportunities for vice presidential influence Finding: Presence of this factor makes vice presidential influence probable (present for 7 of 7 influential VPs) • Outsider presidential candidates often recognize their unfamiliarity with Washington politics and national security issues and select running mates for their expertise • When national security challenges (inevitably) confront outsider presidents, experienced VPs can help the president make decisions and understand options 11
- 12. H3C: Outsider presidents are more likely to seek their vice presidents’ input in the appointments process, which increases the VP’s opportunities for influence • Finding: Presence of this factor makes vice presidential influence probable • This factor was split into two components: - cabinet & bureaucracy allies present for 4 of 7 influential VPs - White House allies present for 4 of 5 modern influential VPs • Allies in cabinet and bureaucracy less frequent for modern VPs • Allies in White House are helpful as sources of information and as alternative voices advancing the VP’s position Example: George H. W. Bush - Bush was not selected for his expertise and, having been a campaign rival, was distrusted by Reaganites - Reagan recognized the need for DC experience on his staff and appointed Bush advisor Jim Baker as White House chief of staff - With Baker as chief of staff, Bush could not be cut out of policy process and had alternate means to reach president 12
- 13. Vice Presidential Needs Opportunity Capability Access • Without access the VP cannot influence policy • Given access, the VP needs the capability to influence policy • Even if these elements are present, the president has to give the vice president the opportunity to give advice • Opportunities exist when outsider presidents encounter unfamiliar issues
- 14. Part II: The President’s Needs E l e c t o ra l Advantage TRUST 1. First and foremost, Presidents want to get elected – the Vice President is chosen for political reasons 2. Presidents need VPs that can be trusted (that aren’t pains in the ass). 3. Finally, when both of these conditions are satisfied, the President may turn to the Vice President for advice 14
- 15. Areas & Modes of VP Influence Areas • Big decisions, particularly life & death issues • Balancing politics and policy, particularly with Congress • Tools and institutions of national security • Insight into foreign governments Modes • Advice on these different elements • Activity, the vice president can take on some of the President’s burden – liaising with Congress, visiting foreign countries, chairing commissions • Personnel, vice presidents have insider staffers who can help President’s staff get things done 15
- 16. Advice Activity Personnel Life & Death • Gore on Bosnia • Biden on Afghanistan • Bush on Terrorism • Bush on Grenada • Bush on Terrorism Politics & Congress • Mondale on China • Mondale on Mid-East peace process • Cheney on Expanded Surveillance • Biden on Afghanistan • Gore on Bosnia • Gore on NAFTA • Mondale on Defense Authorization Veto Tools & Bureaucracy • Cheney on the surge • Biden on Afghanistan • Bush on Terrorism • Cheney on expanded surveillance • Bush on Terrorism • Biden on Afghanistan • Gore on Bosnia • Cheney on Expanded Surveillance • Mondale on Intelligence Reform Foreign Governments • Bush on Gorbachev • Mondale on Mid-East Peace Process • Biden on Afghanistan • Gore on Bosnia • Mondale on Mid- East peace process • Bush on Gorbachev • Quayle on Asia & Latin America 16
- 17. Concluding Thoughts: What vs. How Wheels within Wheels Gordian Knots 17
Editor's Notes
- Constitutional appendage – Schlesinger 1973
- We are measuring influence – how do we know if a VP is influential? This turns out to be a tough problem – like interpreting the world through shadows on the walls of the cave – VPs are tight-lipped about what they tell the president Best I could do was survey the literature – memoirs, analyses by long-time Washington observers - and on the whole the results were consistent Many said Gore, Mondale, and Cheney were influential – no one said Quayle was influential Unique technique I used was to employ process tracing on specific instances of vice presidential influence to see what factors made their influence possible I read everything I could – memoirs, journalist accounts, Bob Woodward – but at the core were a series of interviews – almost every National security advisor to the vice president – five national security advisors to the president, three chiefs of staff to the vice president, many, many other staffers from the NSC & OVP – and one vice president Little influence – it is possible that the instances of influence are all there is – but one staffer observed that through interacting almost daily over years, the President and Vice President are almost bound to have some influence on one another – but it will be subtle and on small things
- Explains an increase in VP activity, but not necessarily influence
- Staff included William Kristol, Carnes Lord, Karl Jackson, Spencer Abraham Increased foreign policy staff from 2 to 5, functional differentiation including first international economics advisor to VP FSO with expertise in Latin America encouraged Quayle’s activity there 2nd VPNSA, Karl Jackson, said he took the job to better push Asian issues
- Griffith Bell cited Mondale’s West Wing office as a great cause of administration’s problems Osmosis - Accounts of Mondale frequently and informally checking with key advisors and the president – and vice versa Nothing propinks like propinquity: Office created an appearance of power, which made others more likely to consult with and appeal to the VP For pre-modern VPs White House office wasn’t as essential since access to the White House was far less restricted – but the two influentials made it a point to have living spaces near White House
- Griffith Bell cited Mondale’s West Wing office as a great cause of administration’s problems Osmosis - Accounts of Mondale frequently and informally checking with key advisors and the president – and vice versa Nothing propinks like propinquity: Office created an appearance of power, which made others more likely to consult with and appeal to the VP For pre-modern VPs White House office wasn’t as essential since access to the White House was far less restricted – but the two influentials made it a point to have living spaces near White House
- VPs must be loyal, discreet in policy deliberations, not force Presidents to choose between them and cabinet members, and not leak Mention Humphrey Mention exchange through newspapers under John Quincy Adams Eaton affair contrast with Van Buren – who “rowed to his object with muffled oars”
- H3A – Cheney is perfect example, Biden also – choice based on competence and experience was also politically smart Often factor in running mates experience for political reasons Carter relied heavily on Mondale for Congress, Gore on Congress, environment, arms control, telecommunications, Cheney on energy, Congress, and national security overall, Biden on foreign affairs – particularly Iraq and Congress
- Mondale, Bush, and Biden don’t really have allies in bureaucracy Cheney’s allies in White House limited
- Opportunity appears to exist most prominently with outsider presidents – so what is it that outsiders need In other words – I want to peel off a couple more layers of the onion – what is this insider knowledge
- Life & Death – Gore (Iraq & Bosnia), Cheney (Afghanistan, Iraq, intel), Biden (Afghanistan) Politics & Policy – Hobart (gold standard), Mondale (Defense veto), Cheney (intel) National security institutions – Bush (Poland sanctions, Grenada), Gore (Bosnia), Cheney (Iraq surge, intell), Biden (Afghanistan) Other countries – Van Buren (France), Mondale (Israel), Bush (Japan, France), Gore (Russia, Egypt, South Africa), Biden (Afghanistan-Pakistan, Iraq)