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Adobe Digital Economy Project - December 2016

The Adobe Digital Economy Project’s Digital Price Index finds that the last month of 2016 shows several categories with MoM inflation between November and December, including televisions (7.8%), appliances (6.0%), tablets (5.4%), electronics (2.8%), and toys (2.7%). At the close of the holiday shopping season, prices increased between November and December for all categories (except toys) by a larger margin in 2016 than in 2015 (1.9% average increase in 2015 vs. 3.6% increase in 2016). Despite these large MoM increases, almost all categories show continued cumulative deflation year-over-year, especially in televisions (-19.8%), tablets (-16.1%), electronics (-9.7%), and toys (-6.9%)

The Adobe DPI also introduces three new categories this month: alcoholic beverages, auto parts, and tools & home improvement products. In the U.K., the Adobe DPI shows significant MoM inflation for computers (3.9%), slight inflation for groceries (0.4%) and slowing deflation (0.7%) for televisions. Across the pond, computer prices rose as they did in the U.S. while televisions bucked the U.S. trend and saw MoM price declines in December.

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Adobe Digital Economy Project - December 2016

  1. 1. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. ADOBE DIGITAL ECONOMY PROJECT DECEMBER 2016 UPDATE
  2. 2. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Main takeaways: December 2  The last month of 2016 shows several categories with MoM inflation between November and December, including televisions (7.8%), appliances (6.0%), tablets (5.4%), electronics (2.8%), and toys (2.7%)  The Adobe DPI introduces three new categories this month:  Alcoholic beverages (0.5% YoY inflation, 0.0% inflation MoM). Within alcohol, beer had the highest YoY inflation (2.9%), while spirits and wine both had YoY deflation (-0.6%)  Auto parts (-1.8% deflation YoY, -0.1% deflation MoM)  Tools & home improvement products (-2.1% deflation YoY, 0.7% inflation MoM)  At the close of the holiday shopping season, prices increased between November and December for all categories (except toys) by a larger margin in 2016 than in 2015 (1.9% average increase in 2015 vs. 3.55% increase in 2016)  In the U.K., computer prices rose as they did in the U.S. while televisions bucked the U.S. trend and saw MoM price declines in December, likely reflecting lower purchases of televisions in the U.K. over the same time period  Despite these large MoM increases, almost all categories show continued cumulative deflation year-over-year, especially in televisions (-19.8%), tablets (-16.1%), electronics (-9.7%), and toys (-6.9%)  Groceries, a category that represents the largest share of consumer spending in the DPI showed 0.5% inflation MoM  Contributing to inflation this month in groceries include MoM price increases in ice cream (2.0%), bakery products (1.7%), and milk (1.2%)  In the U.K., the Adobe DPI shows significant MoM inflation for computers (3.9%), slight inflation for groceries (0.4%) and slowing deflation (0.7%) for televisions
  3. 3. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Digital Insights Background Based on analysis ofaggregated and anonymous data from Adobe Marketing Cloud: • Adobe Analytics and Adobe Mobile Services Thousands of brands worldwide including two thirds of Fortune 50 companies rely on Adobe Marketing Cloud: • $7.50 ofevery $10spent online with top 500 U.S.retailers go through Adobe Marketing Cloud ** • Adobe Marketing Cloud powers: • 20 ofthe top 30 U.S.employers • 9 of10largest hotel groups • 7of10largest airlines **LatestIR Top 500 Report 2015 3 Adobe Analytics Adobe Mobile Services
  4. 4. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Economist Advisors 4 Austan Goolsbee, University of Chicago  Robert P. Gwinn Professor of Economics at The University of Chicago's Booth School of Business  Formerly served as President Obama’s Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers  The youngest member of the cabinet of President Obama Pete Klenow, Stanford University  Professor, Department of Economics, Stanford University  Currently Visiting Scholar, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco  Member of editorial boards for Econometrica, American Economic Review, Quarterly Journal of Economics and others
  5. 5. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. 5 Digital Price Index (DPI) Job Seeking Index (JSI) Digital Housing Index (DHI)
  6. 6. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. 6 Digital Price Index Methodology (DPI)
  7. 7. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Methodology – U.K. 7 Based on analysis of aggregated and anonymous data • Fisher Ideal Price Index • $6 of every $10 spent online with top 100 European retailers go through Adobe Marketing Cloud ** • Based on analysis 1 billion website visits and 100k products sold online ONS: Consumer Price Index Adobe: Digital Price Index Quantities Sold No Yes Products/quantities updated Annually Daily Number of Products 180,000 100k (currently covered categories) Data Collection Frequency Monthly Daily Data Availability Monthly Daily Offline Prices Yes No Long history Yes No All categories of spending Yes No ** Latest IR U.K. Top 500 Report 2015
  8. 8. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Methodology – U.S. 8 Based on analysis of aggregated and anonymous data • Fisher Ideal Price Index • Adobe measures 80% of all online transactions from top 100 U.S. retailers ** • $7.50 of every $10 spent online with top 500 U.S. retailers go through Adobe Marketing Cloud ** • Based on analysis of 15 billion website visits and 2.2 million products sold online BLS: Consumer Price Index BEA: Personal Consumption Expenditures Adobe: Digital Price Index Quantities Sold No No Yes Products/quantities updated Every 2 years Monthly Daily Number of Products 83 thousand (all categories) 83 thousand (all categories) 2.2 million (currently covered categories) Data Collection Frequency Bi-Monthly Monthly Daily Data Availability Monthly Monthly Daily Offline Prices Yes Yes No Long history Yes Yes No All categories of spending Yes Yes No Index Type Laspeyeres Fisher Ideal Fisher Ideal ** Latest IR Top 500 Report 2015
  9. 9. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Big data in DPI decreases uncertainty 9 DPI CPI Appliances 0.15% 0.46% Airfare 0.08% 0.51% Computers 0.28% 0.49% Furniture and bedding 0.07% 0.31% Grocery 0.10% 0.12% Hotels: domestic 0.04% 2.30% Medical equipment and supplies 0.20% 0.39% Nonprescription Drugs 0.18% 0.47% Sporting Goods 0.12% 0.31% Televisions 0.24% 0.60% Toys 0.25% 0.59%
  10. 10. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Inflation rates by price ranges 10 • Televisions have seen higher-ticket items deflate faster than lower-ticket items in 2015 • For computers, mid-range models priced between $700 and $1,200 showed the highest deflation last year *Price bins are determined based on the price the product had when originally launched (first price).
  11. 11. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. The Importance of detail: Black Friday discount comparisons 11 • DPI captures the effect of major discount holidays like Black Friday and Cyber Monday because it measures quantities and does so in real-time • Prices online for Televisions dropped later in November 2016 than in 2015, with more discounts during the Black Friday week (Monday 11/21 through Cyber Monday), which accounted for more than half of all Televisions units purchased between November and December • Television prices then increased more in December 2016 than they did in December 2015, a sign that retailers were able to capitalize on later shopping
  12. 12. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Measuring rapidly shifting consumer preferences 12 • Electronics see an average of 77% of online spend on new* products** • 17% of monthly online spend for groceries on new products * Products that have been available for 1 year or less ** A product is defined as an item for purchase which has an unique identifier (such as a SKU)
  13. 13. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. 13 Digital Price Index Findings (DPI)
  14. 14. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe DPI Findings in the United Kingdom 14 • Our Digital Price Index in the U.K. for groceries shows that grocery prices have deflated by 1.9% YoY in December. Prices increased 0.4% between November and December, the second largest MoM increase in food prices in the U.K over the past 12 months • For computers, the DPI reveals a YoY deflation of 4.3% while MoM prices increased by 3.9%, by far the largest (and first double-digit) MoM price increase in the U.K. • Main YoY price increases for computers priced between £1,200 and £1,600 • Main MoM inflation also for computers priced between £1,200 and £1,600 (6.5%) • TV prices continue to fall YoY; the DPI shows YoY deflation of 23.2% between December 2015 and December 2016. Prices are declining slower this month (down 0.7% in December) than they were between October and November (down 6.0%) but still are lower than in November (unlike in the U.S.) Sluggish T.V. sales in the U.K. in December could explain the difference. • Main YoY price declines were for televisions priced over £ 2,000 • Main MoM deflation for TVs priced above £ 2,000 (-3.4%)
  15. 15. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. November 2016 U.S. Recap 15 MoM: October to November MoM: October to November Difference (percentage) Same Sign? YoY: Cumulative November 2015-2016 YoY: Cumulative November 2015-2016 Difference (percentage) Same Sign? DPI CPI DPI vs. CPI DPI vs. CPI DPI CPI DPI vs. CPI DPI vs. CPI Appliances -6.7% -2.1% -4.6% Yes -6.0% -4.1% -1.9% Yes Alcohol*** -0.6% -0.3% -0.3% Yes -0.3% 0.6% -0.9% No Auto Parts*** -0.8% -0.8% 0.0% Yes -2.0% -1.4% -0.6% Yes Computers -2.1% -0.3% -1.8% Yes -8.1% -6.7% -1.4% Yes Flights 1.6% 1.4% 0.2% Yes -1.6% -6.8% 5.2% Yes Furniture and bedding -2.4% -0.7% -1.7% Yes -3.3% -2.7% -0.6% Yes Grocery -0.5% -0.5% 0.0% Yes -1.3% -2.2% 0.9% Yes Hotels -4.5% -7.3% 2.8% Yes 4.3% 1.8% 2.5% Yes Medical equipment and supplies 0.8% 0.3% 0.5% Yes 0.7% -0.2% 0.9% No Nonprescription Drugs 0.0% -0.2% 0.2% No 0.5% -1.4% 1.9% No Sporting Goods -4.5% -0.7% -3.8% Yes -5.6% -1.7% -3.9% Yes Televisions -12.9% -5.5% -7.4% Yes -23.0% -24.8% 1.8% Yes Tools & Home Improvement*** -1.3% 0.1% -1.4% No -2.4% -1.0% -1.4% Yes Toys -4.5% -0.8% -3.7% Yes -7.0% -9.4% 2.4% Yes Weighted Average Inflation* -1.2% -0.8% -0.4% Yes -1.7% -2.5% 0.8% Yes Weighted Aggregate Inflation, Less Grocery** -2.2% -1.3% -1.0% Yes -2.3% -2.9% 0.7% Yes * Weighted average inflation is calculated using CPI-U relative component weights (2014-2015) across the shared categories in the DPI and the CPI ** Grocery is a large component of the current CPI weights, so changes in grocery prices drive the majority of weighted average inflation. As we add more categories (like housing, auto etc.), these aggregate numbers will change. *** New categories introduced in this month’s Adobe DPI
  16. 16. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. December 2016 U.S. Summary 16 • Main deflation in December: • Domestic hotels, international hotels, domestic flights • Main inflation in December: • Televisions, appliances, tablets, electronics, toys, sporting goods YoY MoM Alcohol*** 0.5% -2.1% Appliances -4.6% 6.0% Auto Parts*** -1.8% -0.1% Computers -6.5% 1.2% Electronics -9.7% 2.8% Flights 3.3% -0.7% Domestic Flights 1.8% -1.1% Intl Flights 3.5% 0.6% Furniture and bedding -3.8% 1.7% Grocery -0.7% 0.5% Domestic Hotels 4.1% -1.6% Intl Hotels -2.6% -1.1% Medical equipment and supplies -1.4% -0.2% Nonprescription Drugs -0.2% 0.4% Sporting Goods -5.7% 2.1% Tablet -16.1% 5.4% Televisions -19.8% 7.8% Tools & Home Improvements*** -2.1% 0.7% Toys -6.9% 2.7% Weighted Average Inflation* -1.1% 0.5% Weighted Aggregate Inflation, Less Grocery** -1.7% 0.6% * Weighted average inflation is calculated using CPI-U relative component weights (2014-2015) across the shared categories in the DPI and the CPI ** Grocery is a large component of the current CPI weights, so changes in grocery prices drive the majority of weighted average inflation. As we add more categories (like housing, auto etc.), these aggregate numbers will change. *** New categories introduced in this month’s Adobe DPI
  17. 17. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Alcohol 17 • Adobe DPI shows cumulative inflation of 0.5% YoY (December 2015 to December 2016) • Main price increases for Alcohol priced below $10, with main price decreases for Alcohol priced between $40 and $80 • Prices for Beer show YoY inflation of 2.9% • Prices for Spirits show YoY deflation of -0.6% • Prices for Wine show YoY deflation of -0.6% • For December 2016, prices decreased -2.1% vs November 2016 MoM METHODOLOGY: • The data used reflect transactions for ~150 K products
  18. 18. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Auto Parts 18 • Adobe DPI shows cumulative deflation of -1.8% YoY (December 2015 to December 2016) • Main YoY price decreases for Auto Parts priced greater than $200 • For December 2016, prices decreased -0.1% vs November 2016 MoM METHODOLOGY: • The data used reflect transactions for ~1.3 M products
  19. 19. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Airfare 19 • Adobe DPI shows cumulative inflation of 3.3% YoY (December 2015 to December 2016) • For December 2016, prices decreased -0.7% vs November 2016 MoM METHODOLOGY: • The data used contains transactions for ~370 K flight routes • Includes associated fees, where applicable
  20. 20. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Airfare: domestic 20 • Adobe DPI shows cumulative inflation of 1.8% YoY (December 2015 to December 2016) • Largest price increases in airfare were to Ohio, with YoY inflation of 9.7% • Other large price increases for airfare were to Pennsylvania, with YoY inflation of 8.4% • Other significant price decreases for airfare are to Georgia, with YoY deflation of -0.7% • Largest price decreases are to airfare to Colorado, with YoY deflation of -1.7% • For December 2016, prices decreased -1.1% vs November 2016 MoM METHODOLOGY: • The data used contains transactions for ~370 K flight routes • Includes associated fees, where applicable
  21. 21. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Airfare: international 21 • Adobe DPI shows cumulative inflation of 3.5% YoY (December 2015 to December 2016) • Largest price increases for airfare were to South America, with inflation of 17.7% YoY • Other price increases for airfare include Oceania, with inflation of 2.4% YoY • Largest price decreases were to Europe, with deflation of -5.7% YoY • For December 2016, prices increased 0.6% vs November 2016 MoM METHODOLOGY: • The data used contains transactions for ~370 K flight routes • Includes associated fees, where applicable
  22. 22. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Electronics 22 • Adobe DPI shows cumulative deflation of -9.7% YoY (December 2015 to December 2016) • Main YoY price decreases for Electronics priced greater than $1500 • For December 2016, prices increased 2.8% vs November 2016 MoM METHODOLOGY: • The data used contains transactions for ~1 M products • Products span across dozens of different categories such as televisions, laptops, Blu-ray players, desktops, tablets, wearables, headphones, video games,printersetc..
  23. 23. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Electronics: computers 23 • Adobe DPI shows cumulative deflation of -6.5% YoY (December 2015 to December 2016) • Main YoY price decreases for Computers priced between $700 and $1200 • For December 2016, prices increased 1.2% vs November 2016 MoM METHODOLOGY: • The data used contains transactions for ~1 M products • Products span across dozens of different categories such as televisions, laptops, Blu-ray players, desktops, tablets, wearables, headphones, video games,printersetc..
  24. 24. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Electronics: televisions 24 • Adobe DPI shows cumulative deflation of -19.8% YoY (December 2015 to December 2016) • Main YoY price decreases for Televisions priced greater than $2000 • For December 2016, prices increased 7.8% vs November 2016 MoM METHODOLOGY: • The data used contains transactions for ~1 M products • Products span across dozens of different categories such as televisions, laptops, Blu-ray players, desktops, tablets, wearables, headphones, video games,printersetc..
  25. 25. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Electronics: tablets 25 • Adobe DPI shows cumulative deflation of -16.1% YoY (December 2015 to December 2016) • Main YoY price decreases for Tablets priced between $550 and $900 • For December 2016, prices increased 5.4% vs November 2016 MoM METHODOLOGY: • The data used contains transactions for ~1 M products • Products span across dozens of different categories such as televisions, laptops, Blu-ray players, desktops, tablets, wearables, headphones, video games,printersetc..
  26. 26. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Furniture and Bedding 26 • Adobe DPI shows cumulative deflation of -3.8% YoY (December 2015 to December 2016) • Main YoY price decreases for Furniture and bedding priced between $100 and $150 • For December 2016, prices increased 1.7% vs November 2016 MoM METHODOLOGY: • The data used contains transactions for ~173 K products • Products include interior and exterior furniture, mattresses and other bedding products
  27. 27. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Groceries 27 • Adobe DPI shows cumulative deflation of -0.7% YoY (December 2015 to December 2016) • Prices for eggs show YoY deflation of -28.8% • Prices for meat and meat products show YoY deflation of -1.9% • Prices for bakery products show YoY inflation of 2.2% • For December 2016, prices increased 0.5% vs November 2016 MoM • Prices for ice cream show MoM inflation of 2.0% • Prices for bakery products show MoM inflation of 1.7% • Prices for milk shows MoM inflation of 1.2% METHODOLOGY: • Our dataset covers an estimated 30-40% of all online grocery purchases. It contains transactions for ~195k products • The mix of grocery products bought online is not the same as offline – the top category for online shopping is drinks (nonalcoholic), while for offline shopping it is meat
  28. 28. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Hotels: domestic 28 METHODOLOGY: • The data used contains transactions for ~250 K hotel properties • Includes associated fees, where applicable • Adobe DPI shows cumulative inflation of 4.1% YoY (December 2015 to December 2016) • Prices for hotels in Nevada show the highest inflation among states measured at 11.8% YoY • Prices for hotels in Florida show the lowest inflation among states measured at 1.3% YoY • For December 2016, prices decreased -1.6% vs November 2016 MoM
  29. 29. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Hotels: international 29 METHODOLOGY: • The data used contains transactions for ~250 K hotel properties • Includes associated fees, where applicable • Adobe DPI shows cumulative deflation of -2.6% YoY (December 2015 to December 2016) • Largest prices increases are for hotels in North America, with 5.4% YoY inflation • Largest price decreases are for hotels in Asia, with YoY deflation of -3.6% • For December 2016, prices decreased -1.1% vs November 2016 MoM
  30. 30. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Medical Equipment and Supplies 30 • Adobe DPI shows cumulative deflation of -1.4% YoY (December 2015 to December 2016) • Main YoY price decreases for Medical equipment and supplies priced between $45 and $135 • Prices for diabetes-related medical equipment and supplies shows YoY inflation of 1.9% • For December 2016, prices decreased -0.2% vs November 2016 MoM METHODOLOGY: • The data used contains transactions for 6,000 products • ” includes supportive and convalescent equipment, dressings and first aid kits, and medical equipment for general use
  31. 31. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Nonprescription drugs 31 • Adobe DPI shows cumulative deflation of -0.2% YoY (December 2015 to December 2016) • Main YoY price decreases for Nonprescription Drugs priced between $0 and $10 • Main YoY price increases for Nonprescription Drugs priced between $15 and $25 • For December 2016, prices increased 0.4% vs November 2016 MoM METHODOLOGY: • The data used contains transactions for 16 K products • Includes all non-prescription medicines taken by swallowing, applying on your skin (such as topicals), inhaling, as suppositories, or enemas.
  32. 32. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Sporting Goods 32 • Adobe DPI shows cumulative deflation of -5.7% YoY (December 2015 to December 2016) • Main YoY price decreases for Sporting Goods priced between $40 and $100 • For December 2016, prices increased 2.1% vs November 2016 MoM METHODOLOGY: • The data used contains transactions for ~300 K products • Products include small equipment and accessories (balls, gloves, uniforms) as well as large equipment such as treadmills, weightlifting tools etc.
  33. 33. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Tools & Home Improvement 33 • Adobe DPI shows cumulative deflation of -2.1% YoY (December 2015 to December 2016) • Main YoY price decreases for Tools & Home Improvement priced greater than $600 • For December 2016, prices increased 0.7% vs November 2016 MoM METHODOLOGY: • The data used contains transactions for ~653 K products
  34. 34. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Toys 34 • Adobe DPI shows cumulative deflation of -6.9% YoY (December 2015 to December 2016) • Main YoY price decreases for Toys priced between $70 and $200 • For December 2016, prices increased 2.7% vs November 2016 MoM METHODOLOGY: • The data used contains transactions for ~249 K products • Products include toys, games as well as playground equipment
  35. 35. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. 35 Job Seeking Index (JSI)
  36. 36. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Online job seeking continues YoY declines 36 METHODOLOGY: • Based on analysis of aggregated and anonymous data from more than 1 billion visits to U.S. employment-search websites and top employer career pages • Adobe Marketing Cloud powers 20 of the top 30 U.S. employers** US online job seeking is down 14.5% YoY in December
  37. 37. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. 37 Digital Housing Index (DHI)
  38. 38. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Online housing search grows YoY 38 METHODOLOGY: • Based on analysis of aggregated and anonymous data from more than 2 billion visits to U.S. housing search websites Online search for purchases and rentals is up 13% YoY in December.
  39. 39. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Appendix 39
  40. 40. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Inflation rates by price ranges, cont’d (tablets) 40 • Tablets have seen higher-ticket items deflate faster than lower-ticket items • The greatest price decrease and increase in November and December were for tablets priced between $350 and $600 *Price bins are determined based on the price the product had when originally launched (first price).
  41. 41. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Inflation rates by price ranges, cont’d (televisions) 41 • The highest priced televisions have have seen faster deflation than lower priced items • The greatest price decrease in November and increase in December were for TVs priced between $600 and $1,000 *Price bins are determined based on the price the product had when originally launched (first price).
  42. 42. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Inflation rates by price ranges, cont’d (televisions) 42 • Mid-range computers have seen faster deflation than lower and higher priced models • The greatest price decrease in November were for mid range computers between $700 and $1,200 while the greatest price increase in December were for lower priced models between $300 and $700 *Price bins are determined based on the price the product had when originally launched (first price).
  43. 43. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Digital Price Index: Fisher Ideal Price Index ∑𝑖𝑖=1 𝑛𝑛 𝑃𝑃𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 𝑈𝑈𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖−1 ∑𝑖𝑖=1 𝑛𝑛 𝑃𝑃𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖−1 𝑈𝑈𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖−1 ∗ ∑𝑖𝑖=1 𝑛𝑛 𝑃𝑃𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 𝑈𝑈𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 ∑𝑖𝑖=1 𝑛𝑛 𝑃𝑃𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖−1 𝑈𝑈𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 • The Fisher Ideal Price Index uses quantities purchased on the current period (month) and a previous period (previous month) to determine actual consumer’s preferences. Instead of assuming that consumers preferences for what goods to buy are constant over a certain number of years, it is able to account for the fact that they are constantly changing what they buy. 𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹 𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹 𝜋𝜋𝑡𝑡 =
  44. 44. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Methodology Comparison: Fisher, Laspeyres and Paasche
  45. 45. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.

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