Adobe Digital Economy Project – November 2016

© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.
ADOBE DIGITAL ECONOMY PROJECT
NOVEMBER 2016 UPDATE

© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.
Main takeaways: November
2
 Holiday season discounts resulted in steep deflation in November for categories such as televisions (-12.9% MoM), appliances (-6.7%), tablets (-6.2%), toys
(-4.5%) and domestic hotels (-4.5%)
 While international flights saw a 1.9% MoM increase in November, flights to Europe saw 5.1% deflation driven by double-digit MoM deflation for flights to
Madrid’s MAD (-10.3%) and Rome’s FCO (-11.6%)
 In a reversal from October’s DPI, several DPI categories show MoM deflation in November as a result of deep discounts from holiday sales over the
Thanksgiving holiday
 Holiday discounts in 2016 were higher for televisions, tablets, and toys, compared to the holiday season in 2015
 Groceries, a category that represents the largest share of consumer spending in the DPI showed 0.5% deflation MoM
 Sugar and sweets (-0.6%), flour (-0.6%), fruits and vegetables (-0.6%), and meats (-0.4%) saw the largest MoM deflation, while eggs (1.6%), ice cream
(1.2%), and juice (0.7%) saw MoM inflation
 In the U.K., the DPI shows the first MoM increase in the price index for computers (1.0%), an increase in the price of groceries (0.5%), and a slowing of deflation
for TVs (-0.7%), suggesting that Brexit impacts on durable imports coupled with a strong U.S. dollar could be pushing prices upward
 Overall U.S. results signal a slight uptick in inflation, a strong labor market, and a stable housing market:
 The U.S. Job Seeking Index finds that online job searches are down sharply YoY for another month in a row, with November searches down -17.5% YoY,
suggesting continued strength in the U.S. labor market, though momentum maybe slowing
 Our U.S. Digital Housing Index an increase of 11.5% YoY in online housing searches. While a strong increase over the prior year, November’s rise is the the
second lowest YoY increase over the past 6 months

Adobe Digital Insights Background
Based on analysis ofaggregated and anonymous data from Adobe Marketing Cloud:
• Adobe Analytics and Adobe Mobile Services
Thousands of brands worldwide including two thirds of Fortune 50 companies rely on Adobe
Marketing Cloud:
• $7.50ofevery $10spent online with top 500 U.S.retailers go through Adobe Marketing Cloud **
• Adobe Marketing Cloud powers:
• 20 ofthe top 30 U.S.employers
• 9 of10largest hotel groups
• 7of10largest airlines
**Latest IR Top 500 Report 2015
3
Adobe
Analytics
Adobe
Mobile Services

Economist Advisors
4
Austan Goolsbee, University of Chicago
 Robert P. Gwinn Professor of Economics at The University of Chicago's Booth School of Business
 Formerly served as President Obama’s Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
 The youngest member of the cabinet of President Obama
Pete Klenow, Stanford University
 Professor, Department of Economics, Stanford University
 Currently Visiting Scholar, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
 Member of editorial boards for Econometrica, American Economic Review, Quarterly Journal of Economics and others

© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. 5
Digital Price Index
(DPI)
Job Seeking Index
(JSI)
Digital Housing Index
(DHI)

Digital Price Index
(DPI)

Methodology – U.K.
7
Based on analysis of aggregated and anonymous data
• Fisher Ideal Price Index
• $6 of every $10 spent online with top 100 European retailers go through Adobe Marketing Cloud **
• Based on analysis 1 billion website visits and 100k products sold online
ONS: Consumer Price Index Adobe: Digital Price Index
Quantities Sold No Yes
Products/quantities updated Annually Daily
Number of Products 180,000
100k
(currently covered categories)
Data Collection Frequency Monthly Daily
Data Availability Monthly Daily
Offline Prices Yes No
Long history Yes No
All categories of spending Yes No
** Latest IR U.K. Top 500 Report 2015

Adobe DPI in the United Kingdom
8
• Our Digital Price Index in the U.K. for groceries shows that grocery
prices have deflated by 1.6% YoY in October. Prices increased 0.5%
between October and November, the largest MoM increase in food
prices in the U.K over the past 12 months
• For computers, the DPI reveals a YoY deflation of 8.9% while MoM
prices increased by 1.0%, the first time in the past 12 months that prices
have increased MoM
• Similarly TV prices in the UK continue to fall YoY; the DPI shows YoY
deflation of 19.3% between November 2015 to November 2016. Prices
are declining slower this month (down 0.7% in November) than they
were between September and October (down 1.7%) suggesting that
Brexit impacts on durables imports might be beginning to put upward
pressure on prices

Methodology – U.S.
9
Based on analysis of aggregated and anonymous data
• Fisher Ideal Price Index
• Adobe measures 80% of all online transactions from top 100 U.S. retailers **
• $7.50 of every $10 spent online with top 500 U.S. retailers go through Adobe Marketing Cloud **
• Based on analysis of 15 billion website visits and 2.2 million products sold online
BLS: Consumer Price Index
BEA: Personal Consumption
Expenditures
Adobe: Digital Price Index
Quantities Sold No No Yes
Products/quantities updated Every 2 years Monthly Daily
Number of Products 83 thousand (all categories) 83 thousand (all categories)
2.2 million
(currently covered categories)
Data Collection Frequency Bi-Monthly Monthly Daily
Data Availability Monthly Monthly Daily
Offline Prices Yes Yes No
Long history Yes Yes No
All categories of spending Yes Yes No
Index Type Laspeyeres Fisher Ideal Fisher Ideal
** Latest IR Top 500 Report 2015

Big data in DPI decreases uncertainty
10
DPI CPI
Appliances 0.15% 0.46%
Airfare 0.08% 0.51%
Computers 0.28% 0.49%
Furniture and bedding 0.07% 0.31%
Grocery 0.10% 0.12%
Hotels: domestic 0.04% 2.30%
Medical equipment and supplies 0.20% 0.39%
Nonprescription Drugs 0.18% 0.47%
Sporting Goods 0.12% 0.31%
Televisions 0.24% 0.60%
Toys 0.25% 0.59%

Inflation rates by price ranges
11
• Televisions have seen higher-ticket items
deflate faster than lower-ticket items
• In computers, models priced above $1,200
showing the least deflation in the category
*Price bins are determined based on the price the product had when originally launched
(first price).

The Importance of detail: Black Friday
12
• DPI captures the effect of major discount holidays
like Black Friday and Cyber Monday because it
measures quantities and does so in real-time
• Lowest prices for TVs in 2015 & 2016 were
Thanksgiving and Black Friday
• Data demonstrates retailers trying to start sales
earlier – the Sunday and Monday before
Thanksgiving see low prices

Measuring rapidly shifting consumer preferences
13
• Electronics see an average of 77% of online
spend on new* products**
• 17% of monthly online spend for groceries
on new products
* Products that have been available for 1 year or less
** A product is defined as an item for purchase which has an unique identifier (such as a SKU)

October 2016 Recap
14
MoM:
September to
October
MoM:
September to
October
Difference
(percentage)
Same
Sign?
YoY: Cumulative October
2015-2016
YoY: Cumulative October
2015-2016
Difference
(percentage)
Same
Sign?
DPI CPI DPI vs. CPI DPI vs. CPI DPI CPI DPI vs. CPI DPI vs. CPI
Appliances 1.4% -0.8% 2.2% No -6.2% -4.0% -2.2% Yes
Computers 0.5% -0.1% 0.6% No -9.9% -7.2% -2.8% Yes
Domestic Hotels -0.7% -1.1% 0.4% Yes 2.9% 3.9% -1.0% Yes
Flights 1.5% 1.3% 0.2% Yes -2.9% -5.4% 2.5% Yes
Furniture and bedding 0.2% 1.2% -1.0% Yes -3.1% -2.0% -1.1% Yes
Grocery 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% No -0.9% -2.3% 1.4% Yes
Medical equipment and supplies 0.8% -0.1% 0.9% No -1.0% -0.8% -0.2% Yes
Nonprescription Drugs 0.3% -0.8% 1.1% No -0.1% -1.4% 1.3% Yes
Sporting Goods -0.1% 0.2% -0.3% No -4.9% -1.4% -3.5% Yes
Televisions -1.8% -0.5% -1.3% Yes -21.9% -21.6% -0.3% Yes
Toys -1.2% -1.4% 0.2% Yes -6.0% -9.8% 3.8% Yes
Weighted Average Inflation* 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Yes -1.7% -2.6% 0.9% Yes
Weighted Aggregate Inflation, Less
Grocery** 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Yes -1.1% -1.0% -0.1% Yes
* Weighted average inflation is calculated using CPI-U relative component weights (2014-
2015) across the shared categories in the DPI and the CPI
** Grocery is a large component of the CPI weights, so changes in grocery prices drive the
majority of weighted average inflation.

November 2016 Summary
15
• Main deflation in November:
• Televisions, appliances, tablets, sporting goods,
domestic hotels, toys
• Main inflation in November:
• International flights, domestic flights, medical
equipment and supplies
YoY MoM
Appliances -6.0% -6.7%
Computers -8.1% -2.1%
Electronics -11.4% -5.4%
Flights -1.6% 1.6%
Domestic Flights -3.9% 1.6%
Intl Flights 1.1% 1.9%
Furniture and bedding -3.3% -2.4%
Grocery -1.3% -0.5%
Domestic Hotels 4.3% -4.5%
Intl Hotels -2.4% -1.4%
Medical equipment and supplies 0.7% 0.8%
Nonprescription Drugs 0.5% 0.0%
Sporting Goods -5.6% -4.5%
Tablet -21.8% -6.2%
Televisions -23.0% -12.9%
Toys -7.0% -4.5%

2016-2015 Holiday Season* Comparison
16
• Larger discounts in 2016:
• Televisions, tablets, toys
• Larger discounts in 2015:
• Domestic hotels, computers, domestic flights
Holiday 2015 Holiday 2016
Percentage Point
Differential
Appliances -5.59% -5.40% 0.19%
Computers -3.87% -1.59% 2.28%
Electronics -5.51% -6.31% -0.80%
Flights 1.64% 3.21% 1.57%
Domestic Flights 1.23% 3.21% 1.98%
Intl Flights 2.15% 3.28% 1.14%
Furniture and bedding -2.32% -2.21% 0.11%
Grocery -0.13% -0.48% -0.35%
Domestic Hotels -8.11% -5.15% 2.95%
Intl Hotels -5.01% -3.65% 1.35%
Medical equipment and supplies 0.01% 1.57% 1.56%
Nonprescription Drugs 0.04% 0.32% 0.28%
Sporting Goods -4.45% -4.56% -0.10%
Tablet -7.94% -9.58% -1.63%
Televisions -11.95% -14.43% -2.48%
Toys -4.61% -5.64% -1.03%
* October and November for 2015 and 2016

Appliances
17
• Adobe DPI shows cumulative deflation of -6.0% YoY
(November 2015 to November 2016)
• Main YoY price decreases for Appliances priced between
$600 and $1000
• For November 2016, prices decreased -6.7% vs October
2016 MoM between $600 and $1000:-7.2%, between $0
and $200: -3.6%
METHODOLOGY:
• The data used contains transactions for ~110 K products
• Products include large appliances such as fridges, ovens, washers, dryers as well as smaller appliances such as vacuums, mixers, blenders etc.

Airfare
18
• For November 2016, prices increased 1.6% vs October
2016 MoM
METHODOLOGY:
• The data used contains transactions for ~370 K flight routes
• Includes associated fees, where applicable

Airfare: domestic
19
• For November 2016, prices increased 1.6% vs October 2016
MoM
METHODOLOGY:

Airfare: international
20
• Adobe DPI shows cumulative inflation of 1.1% YoY (November
2015 to November 2016)
• Flight prices showed continued decline to Europe (-5.1%
MoM) and Africa (-1.1%)
• Largest price increases continued the second month in a
row to South America (5.6% MoM)
MoM
METHODOLOGY:

Electronics
21
• Main YoY price decreases for Electronics priced greater
than $1500
2016 MoM greater than $1,500: -14.5%, between $0 and
$200:-5.4%
METHODOLOGY:
• The data used contains transactions for ~1 M products
• Products span across dozens of diﬀerent categories such as televisions, laptops, Blu-ray players, desktops, tablets, wearables, headphones, video games,printersetc..

Electronics: computers
22
• Main YoY price decreases for Computers priced between
$700 and $1200
2016 MoM between $700 and $1200: -12.8%, between $0
and $300: -0.5%
METHODOLOGY:

Electronics: televisions
23
• Main YoY price decreases for Televisions priced greater
than $2000
2016 MoM greater than $2000: -32.7%, between $0 and
$300: -14.5%
METHODOLOGY:

Electronics: tablets
24
• Main YoY price decreases for Tablets priced between
$550 and $900
2016 MoM between $550 and $900: -26.8%, between $0
and $250: -7.6%
METHODOLOGY:

Furniture and Bedding
25
• Main YoY price decreases for Furniture and bedding
priced between $150 and $250
2016 MoM between $150 and $250: -4.8%, greater than
$750: -2.2%
METHODOLOGY:
• Products include interior and exterior furniture, mattresses and other bedding products

Groceries
26
2016 MoM
METHODOLOGY:
• Our dataset covers an estimated 30-40% of all online grocery purchases. It contains transactions for ~195k products
• The mix of grocery products bought online is not the same as oﬄine – the top category for online shopping is drinks (nonalcoholic), while for oﬄine shopping it is meat

Hotels: domestic
27
METHODOLOGY:
• The data used contains transactions for ~250 K hotel properties
• Adobe DPI shows cumulative inflation of 4.3% YoY
2016 MoM

Hotels: international
28
METHODOLOGY:
• The data used contains transactions for ~250 K hotel properties
• For November 2016, prices decreased -1.4% vs October 2016
MoM

Medical Equipment and Supplies
29
• Main YoY price decreases for Medical equipment and
supplies priced between $45 and $135
• Main YoY price increases for Medical equipment and
supplies priced between $0 and $10
MoM between $45 and $135: -3.8%, between $0 and $10:
1.5%
METHODOLOGY:
• The data used contains transactions for 6,000 products
• ” includes supportive and convalescent equipment, dressings and first aid kits, and medical equipment for general use

Nonprescription drugs
30
• Main YoY price decreases for Nonprescription Drugs
priced greater than $40
• Main YoY price increases for Nonprescription Drugs
priced between $15 and $25
MoM greater than $40:-0.2%, between $15 and $25: 1.3%
METHODOLOGY:
• The data used contains transactions for 16 K products
• Includes all non-prescription medicines taken by swallowing, applying on your skin (such as topicals), inhaling, as suppositories, or enemas.

Sporting Goods
31
• Main YoY price decreases for Sporting Goods priced
between $40 and $100
2016 MoM between $40 and $100: -7.0%, between $0 and
$40: -4.4%
METHODOLOGY:
• Products include small equipment and accessories (balls, gloves, uniforms) as well as large equipment such as treadmills, weightlifting tools etc.

Toys
32
• Main YoY price decreases for Toys priced between $70
and $200
2016 MoM between $70 and $200:-6.4%, greater than
$300:-1.8%
METHODOLOGY:
• Products include toys, games as well as playground equipment

Job Seeking Index
(JSI)

Online job seeking continues YoY declines
34
METHODOLOGY:
• Based on analysis of aggregated and anonymous data from more than 1 billion visits to U.S. employment-search websites and top employer career pages
• Adobe Marketing Cloud powers 20 of the top 30 U.S. employers**
• US online job seeking is down 17.5% YoY in
November
• Online job seeking sees another month of YoY
decline, reflecting a tightening labor market. Declines
were less steep YoY than the month previous,
however, suggesting that momentum may be
slowing.

Digital Housing Index
(DHI)

Online housing search grows YoY
36
METHODOLOGY:
• Based on analysis of aggregated and anonymous data from more than 2 billion visits to U.S. housing search websites
Online search for purchases and rentals is up 11.5% YoY
in November. While higher than the same month last
year, the figure is the 2nd lowest YoY increase in the last 6
months.

Appendix
37

Digital Price Index: Fisher Ideal Price Index
∑𝑖𝑖=1
𝑛𝑛
𝑃𝑃𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 𝑈𝑈𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖−1
∑𝑖𝑖=1
𝑛𝑛
𝑃𝑃𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖−1 𝑈𝑈𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖−1
∗
∑𝑖𝑖=1
𝑛𝑛
𝑃𝑃𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 𝑈𝑈𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖
∑𝑖𝑖=1
𝑛𝑛
𝑃𝑃𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖−1 𝑈𝑈𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖
• The Fisher Ideal Price Index uses quantities purchased on the current period (month) and a previous period
(previous month) to determine actual consumer’s preferences. Instead of assuming that consumers
preferences for what goods to buy are constant over a certain number of years, it is able to account for the fact
that they are constantly changing what they buy.
𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹 𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹 𝜋𝜋𝑡𝑡 =

Methodology Comparison: Fisher, Laspeyres and Paasche

Adobe Digital Economy Project – November 2016

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