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ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 1
ADOBE DIGITAL ECONOMY PROJECT
MAY 2016
OVERVIEW
Adobe Digital Index background
Based on analysis ofaggregated and anonymous data from Adobe Marketing Cloud:
• Adobe Analytics and Adobe Mobile Services
Thousands ofbrands worldwide including two thirdsofFortune 50 companies rely on Adobe
Marketing Cloud:
• $7.50ofevery $10spent online with top 500 U.S.retailers go through Adobe Marketing Cloud **
• Adobe Marketing Cloud powers:
• 20 ofthe top 30 U.S.employers
• 9 of10largest hotel groups
• 7of10largest airlines
**LatestIR Top 500 Report 2015
Adobe
Analytics
Adobe
Mobile Services
ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 3
Digital Price Index
(DPI)
Job Seeking Index
(JSI)
Digital Housing Index
(DHI)
ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 4
Main takeaways: May
• Our Digital Price Index (DPI) shows strong signs of deflation in the goods and services we currently cover that are bought online
• Categories showing the most month-over-month deflation in May were tablets, televisions and appliances, with hotels and flights
showing month-over-month inflation mainly due to seasonality.
• The only covered category showing inflation in May is toys, with toys priced below $70 showing the most price increases
• In groceries, prices have decreased for three consecutive months
• For computers, we see that in May prices seem to have stabilized after two months of steep declines, with high-end computers
showing the least deflation
• Our Job Seeking Index showed signs that job seeking activity is increasing relative to recent months
• Our Digital Housing Index had the lowest YoY growth in the last 9 months
ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 5
Digital Price Index
(DPI)
ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 6
DIGITAL PRICE INDEX
Economist Advisors
Austan Goolsbee, University of Chicago
 Robert P. Gwinn Professor of Economics at The University of Chicago's Booth School of Business
 Formerly served as President Obama’s Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
 The youngest member of the cabinet of President Obama
Pete Klenow, Stanford University
 Professor, Department of Economics, Stanford University
 Currently Visiting Scholar, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
 Member of editorial boards for Econometrica, American Economic Review, Quarterly Journal of Economics and others
ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 7
DIGITAL PRICE INDEX
Methodology
Based on analysis of aggregated and anonymous data
• Fisher Ideal Price Index
• Adobe measures 80% of all online transactions from top 100 U.S. retailers **
• $7.50 of every $10 spent online with top 500 U.S. retailers go through Adobe Marketing Cloud **
• Based on analysis of 15 billion website visits and 2.2 million online products sold between May 2014 and May 2016
BLS: Consumer Price Index Adobe: Digital Price Index
Quantities Sold No Yes
Products/quantities updated Every 4 years Daily
Number of Products 83 thousand (all categories)
2.2 million
(currently covered categories)
Data Collection Frequency Bi-Monthly Daily
Data Availability Monthly Daily
Offline Prices Yes No
Long history Yes No
All categories of spending Yes No
** Latest IR Top 500 Report 2015
ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 8
DIGITAL PRICE INDEX
• Electronics see an average of 80% of
online spend on new* products**
• 16% of monthly online spend for groceries
on new products
* Products that have been available for 1 year or less
** A product is defined as an item for purchase which has an unique identifier (such as a SKU)
Measuring rapidly shifting consumer preferences
ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 9
DIGITAL PRICE INDEX
• DPI captures the effect of major discount holidays
like Black Friday and Cyber Monday because it
measures quantities and does so in real-time
• Lowest prices for TVs in 2015 were Thanksgiving
and Black Friday
• Data demonstrates retailers trying to start sales
earlier – the Sunday and Monday before
Thanksgiving saw low prices
The Importance of detail: Black Friday
ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 10
DIGITAL PRICE INDEX
Inflation rates by price bins
• Televisions have seem higher-ticket items
deflate faster than lower-ticket items
• In computers, models priced above $1,200
showing the least deflation in the category
• Price bins are determined based on the price the product had when originally
launched (first price).
ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 11
DIGITAL PRICE INDEX
April 2016 Recap
MoM: April vs March MoM: April vs March Difference (percentage) Same Sign? YoY: Cumulative April 2015-2016 YoY: Cumulative April 2015-2016 Difference (percentage) Same Sign?
DPI CPI DPI vs. CPI DPI vs. CPI DPI CPI DPI vs. CPI DPI vs. CPI
Appliances -1.1% -0.3% -0.8% Yes -4.9% -3.7% -1.2% Yes
Computers -2.1% 0.0% -2.1% No -13.9% -7.7% -6.1% Yes
Domestic Hotels 1.6% -0.8% 2.4% No 2.8% -0.01% 2.8% No
Flights -0.9% 4.3% -5.2% No -4.6% 0.4% -4.9% No
Furniture -0.5% -0.2% -0.3% Yes -2.8% -2.6% -0.3% Yes
Grocery -0.2% 0.1% -0.3% No 0.5% -0.3% 0.8% No
Sporting Goods -0.7% 1.6% -2.3% No -5.5% -0.5% -5.0% Yes
Televisions -1.6% -1.8% 0.2% Yes -19.7% -16.1% -3.6% Yes
Toys -1.6% -0.4% -1.2% Yes -7.6% -8.1% 0.5% Yes
ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 12
DIGITAL PRICE INDEX
• Main deflation in May:
• Tablets, Televisions & Appliances
• Main inflation in May:
• Flights, Hotels & Toys
May 2016 Summary
YoY MoM
Appliances -4.5% -1.0%
Computers -12.7% -0.4%
Electronics -10.3% -1.4%
Flights -5.0% 4.1%
Flights: domestic -7.1% 4.1%
Flights: international -1.7% 3.1%
Furniture -3.4% -0.8%
Grocery 0.4% -0.2%
Hotels: domestic 2.6% 0.7%
Hotels: international -0.5% 0.7%
Sporting Goods -5.2% -0.4%
Tablets -21.5% -3.7%
Televisions -18.5% -2.0%
Toys -6.5% 0.4%
ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 13
• The data used contains transactions for~110K products between May 2014 and May 2016
• Products include large appliances such as fridges,ovens, washers, dryers as well as smaller appliances such as
vacuums, mixers, blenders etc.
Appliances
methodology
ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 14
DIGITAL PRICE INDEX
Appliances prices decreased 4.5% YoY, driven by big appliances
* CPI category “Appliances” used for comparison
• Between May 2015 and May 2016, DPI shows
cumulative deflation of 4.5% YoY
• For May, prices decreased 1% vs April MoM
• Main deflation items in May are for high-ticket
appliances (above $600)
ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 15
• The data used contains transactions for~1M products between May 2014and May 2016
• Products span across dozens ofdifferent categories such as televisions, laptops, Blu-ray players,desktops, tablets,
wearables, headphones, video games, printers etc.
Electronics
methodology
ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 16
DIGITAL PRICE INDEX
Cameras and smart watch prices decline in May
• Prices for electronics decreased 10.3% between May
2015 and May 2016 YoY
• For May, prices decreased 1.4% vs April MoM
• Main deflation in May happening in televisions,
tablets, cameras and smart watches
* No CPI category exists for comparison
ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 17
DIGITAL PRICE INDEX
Deflation for computers slows in May, driven by high-end market
• Between May 2015 and May 2016, DPI shows
cumulative deflation of 12.7% YoY
• For May, prices decreased 0.4% vs April MoM
• Main price decreases for computers priced
between $700 and $1,200
• Main price increases for high-end computers
(priced above $1,200)
* CPI category “Personal computers and peripheral equipment” used for comparison
ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 18
DIGITAL PRICE INDEX
High-end televisions drive price decreases in May
* CPI category “Television” used for comparison
• Between May 2015 and May 2016, DPI shows
cumulative deflation of 18.5% YoY
• For May, prices decreased 2% vs April MoM
• Main price decreases in high-end televisions
(above $2,000)
ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 19
DIGITAL PRICE INDEX
Tablets see large price decline in May
• Between May 2015 and May 2016, DPI shows
cumulative deflation of 21.5% YoY
• For May, prices decreased 3.7% vs April MoM
• Main decrease in May for tablets priced between
$350 and $550
• This is an important category not specifically broken
out in the CPI
ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 20
• The data used contains transactions for~370K flight routes between April 2015and May 2016
• Includesassociatedfees,whereapplicable
Flights
methodology
ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 21
DIGITAL PRICE INDEX
Flight prices down 5% YoY
• Between May 2015 and May 2016, DPI shows
cumulative deflation of 5% YoY
• For May, prices increased 4.1% vs April MoM
* CPI category “Airline fare” used for comparison
ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 22
DIGITAL PRICE INDEX
Domestic flight prices down 7.1% YoY
• Between May 2015 and May 2016, DPI shows
cumulative deflation of 7.1% YoY
• For May, prices increased 4.1% vs April MoM
• Main inflation states were Texas, California and
Florida
• Main deflation states were Washington, Georgia
and Hawaii
* No CPI category exists for comparison
ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 23
DIGITAL PRICE INDEX
International flight prices down 1.7% YoY
• Between May 2015 and May 2016, DPI shows
cumulative deflation of 1.7% YoY
• For May, prices increased 3.1% vs April MoM
• Main price increases in May were for North
American and European destinations
• Main price decreases in May were for Asia
* No CPI category exists for comparison
ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 24
• The data used contains transactions for~173K products between May 2014 and May 2016
• Products include interior and exterior furniture, mattresses and other bedding products
Furniture and bedding
methodology
ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 25
DIGITAL PRICE INDEX
Furniture and bedding prices decrease, especially for patio
* CPI category “Furniture and bedding” used for comparison
• Between May 2015 and May 2016, DPI shows
cumulative deflation of 3.4% YoY
• For May, prices decreased 0.8% vs April MoM
• Main deflation items in May are for Patio
Furniture
ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 26
• Our dataset covers an estimated 30-40% ofall online grocery purchases. Itcontains transactions for~195kproducts (2015-
2016)and is heavily comprised ofgroceries bought online and picked-up in store
• The percent ofshoppers buying groceries online is small, but growing by 35% YoY as of February
• The mix ofgrocery products bought online is not the same as offline – the top category foronline shopping is drinks
(nonalcoholic), while foroffline shopping itis meat
• Still, a significant portion of online grocery shopping is dedicated to meats, dairy, fruits and vegetables – more than 50%
• When itcomes to products where there’s little substitution possible and consumer choice is minimal (like milk and eggs), the
DPI tracks almost perfectly with the CPI. This is a good indication that prices online match offline prices well
Groceries
methodology
ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 27
DIGITAL PRICE INDEX
Online Groceries prices down in May, driven by juices & drinks
• Between May 2015 and May 2016, DPI shows
cumulative inflation of 0.4% YoY
• For May, prices decreased 0.2% vs April MoM
• Main deflation in May for juices & nonalcoholic
drinks
* CPI category “Food at Home” used for comparison
ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 28
• The data used contains transactions for~250K hotel properties between April 2015and May 2016
• Includesassociatedfees,whereapplicable
Hotels
methodology
ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 29
DIGITAL PRICE INDEX
Domestic hotel prices increase by 2.6% YoY
* CPI category “Other lodging away from home including hotels and motels” used for comparison
• Between May 2015 and May 2016, DPI shows
cumulative inflation of 2.6% YoY
• For May, prices increased 0.7% vs April MoM
• Main price increases in California, Illinois and
Washington
• Main price decreases in Florida, Arizona &
Louisiana
ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 30
DIGITAL PRICE INDEX
International hotel prices increase 0.7% in May
• Between May 2015 and May 2016, DPI shows
cumulative deflation of 0.5% YoY
• For May, prices increased 0.7% vs April MoM
• Main price increases for hotels in North America
and ANZ
• Main price decreases in Asia and South America
* No CPI category exists for comparison
ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 31
• The data used contains transactions for~300 K products between May 2014and May 2016
• Products include small equipment and accessories (balls, gloves, uniforms) as well as large
equipment such as treadmills, weightlifting tools etc.
Sporting Goods
methodology
ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 32
DIGITAL PRICE INDEX
Sporting goods
• Between May 2015 and May 2016, DPI shows
cumulative deflation of 5.2% YoY
• For May, prices decreased 0.4% vs April MoM
• Main deflation in high-ticket sporting goods
(above $350)
ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 33
• The data used contains transactions for~249 K products between May 2014and May 2016
• Products include toys,games as well as playground equipment
Toys
methodology
ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 34
DIGITAL PRICE INDEX
Toys have inflation in May, driven by products below $70
* CPI category “Toys” used for comparison
• Between May 2015 and May 2016, DPI shows
cumulative deflation of 6.5% YoY
• For May, prices increased 0.4% vs April MoM
• Main price increases for May were for toys priced
below $70
ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 3
5
Job Seeking Index
(JSI)
ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 36
JOB SEEKING INDEX
Methodology
Based on analysis of aggregated and anonymous data from more than 1 billion visits to U.S.
employment-search websites and top employer career pages from May 2015 through May 2016.
 Adobe Marketing Cloud powers 20 of the top 30 U.S. employers**
ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 37
JOB SEEKING INDEX
Online Job Seeking declines
• US online job seeking is down 8.1% YoY in May
• Government reported May Unemployment Rate at
4.5% (down 15.1% YoY), due in large part to a
contraction in the labor force
ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 3
8
Digital Housing Index
(DHI)
ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 39
DIGITAL HOUSING INDEX
Methodology
Based on analysis of aggregated and anonymous data from more than 2 billion visits to U.S. housing search
websites between May 2015 and May 2016.
ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 40
DIGITAL HOUSING INDEX
Online housing search growth slows
• Online search for purchases and rentals up 14.8%
YoY in May
• NAR reports existing home sales increased 1.7%
YoY in April
ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 41
DIGITAL PRICE INDEX
ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 42
Appendix
42
ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 43
DIGITAL PRICE INDEX
Digital Price Index: Fisher Ideal Price Index
∑𝑖𝑖=1
𝑛𝑛
𝑃𝑃𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 𝑈𝑈𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖−1
∑𝑖𝑖=1
𝑛𝑛
𝑃𝑃𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖−1 𝑈𝑈𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖−1
∗
∑𝑖𝑖=1
𝑛𝑛
𝑃𝑃𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 𝑈𝑈𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖
∑𝑖𝑖=1
𝑛𝑛
𝑃𝑃𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖−1 𝑈𝑈𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖
• The Fisher Ideal Price Index uses quantities purchased on the current period (month) and a previous period
(previous month) to determine actual consumer’s preferences. Instead of assuming that consumers
preferences for what goods to buy are constant over a certain number of years, it is able to account for the fact
that they are constantly changing what they buy.
𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹 𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹 𝜋𝜋𝑡𝑡 =
ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 44
DIGITAL PRICE INDEX
Methodology Comparison: Fisher, Laspeyres and Paasche
ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 45
DIGITAL PRICE INDEX
Annual Cumulative Inflation Rates
ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 46
DIGITAL PRICE INDEX
Electronics Deflation in Detail
• The average price paid for an iPad mini (all models) has
decreased by about 40% since the iPad mini 1 was
introduced in November 2012.
• Although the initial price tag of new models remains
constant at around $400, the automatic discount of
previous models causes the average price to consistently
fall: when the iPad mini 3 was introduced at an average
price of $450, the price for the iPad Mini 2 was reduced by
25% to $300.
• This data only includes iPad minis sold in retail websites
ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 47
DIGITAL PRICE INDEX
Inflation Rates by Price Bins, May (MoM)
ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 48
DIGITAL PRICE INDEX
Inflation Rates by Price Bins, May (MoM) – Cont’d
ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 49
DIGITAL PRICE INDEX
Job Seeking Online: Traffic Sources
• Direct traffic to employment-listing websites is
higher than search traffic
• Search ranks second

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Report: Adobe Digital Economy Project May 2016

  • 1. ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 1 ADOBE DIGITAL ECONOMY PROJECT MAY 2016
  • 2. OVERVIEW Adobe Digital Index background Based on analysis ofaggregated and anonymous data from Adobe Marketing Cloud: • Adobe Analytics and Adobe Mobile Services Thousands ofbrands worldwide including two thirdsofFortune 50 companies rely on Adobe Marketing Cloud: • $7.50ofevery $10spent online with top 500 U.S.retailers go through Adobe Marketing Cloud ** • Adobe Marketing Cloud powers: • 20 ofthe top 30 U.S.employers • 9 of10largest hotel groups • 7of10largest airlines **LatestIR Top 500 Report 2015 Adobe Analytics Adobe Mobile Services
  • 3. ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 3 Digital Price Index (DPI) Job Seeking Index (JSI) Digital Housing Index (DHI)
  • 4. ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 4 Main takeaways: May • Our Digital Price Index (DPI) shows strong signs of deflation in the goods and services we currently cover that are bought online • Categories showing the most month-over-month deflation in May were tablets, televisions and appliances, with hotels and flights showing month-over-month inflation mainly due to seasonality. • The only covered category showing inflation in May is toys, with toys priced below $70 showing the most price increases • In groceries, prices have decreased for three consecutive months • For computers, we see that in May prices seem to have stabilized after two months of steep declines, with high-end computers showing the least deflation • Our Job Seeking Index showed signs that job seeking activity is increasing relative to recent months • Our Digital Housing Index had the lowest YoY growth in the last 9 months
  • 5. ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 5 Digital Price Index (DPI)
  • 6. ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 6 DIGITAL PRICE INDEX Economist Advisors Austan Goolsbee, University of Chicago  Robert P. Gwinn Professor of Economics at The University of Chicago's Booth School of Business  Formerly served as President Obama’s Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers  The youngest member of the cabinet of President Obama Pete Klenow, Stanford University  Professor, Department of Economics, Stanford University  Currently Visiting Scholar, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco  Member of editorial boards for Econometrica, American Economic Review, Quarterly Journal of Economics and others
  • 7. ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 7 DIGITAL PRICE INDEX Methodology Based on analysis of aggregated and anonymous data • Fisher Ideal Price Index • Adobe measures 80% of all online transactions from top 100 U.S. retailers ** • $7.50 of every $10 spent online with top 500 U.S. retailers go through Adobe Marketing Cloud ** • Based on analysis of 15 billion website visits and 2.2 million online products sold between May 2014 and May 2016 BLS: Consumer Price Index Adobe: Digital Price Index Quantities Sold No Yes Products/quantities updated Every 4 years Daily Number of Products 83 thousand (all categories) 2.2 million (currently covered categories) Data Collection Frequency Bi-Monthly Daily Data Availability Monthly Daily Offline Prices Yes No Long history Yes No All categories of spending Yes No ** Latest IR Top 500 Report 2015
  • 8. ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 8 DIGITAL PRICE INDEX • Electronics see an average of 80% of online spend on new* products** • 16% of monthly online spend for groceries on new products * Products that have been available for 1 year or less ** A product is defined as an item for purchase which has an unique identifier (such as a SKU) Measuring rapidly shifting consumer preferences
  • 9. ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 9 DIGITAL PRICE INDEX • DPI captures the effect of major discount holidays like Black Friday and Cyber Monday because it measures quantities and does so in real-time • Lowest prices for TVs in 2015 were Thanksgiving and Black Friday • Data demonstrates retailers trying to start sales earlier – the Sunday and Monday before Thanksgiving saw low prices The Importance of detail: Black Friday
  • 10. ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 10 DIGITAL PRICE INDEX Inflation rates by price bins • Televisions have seem higher-ticket items deflate faster than lower-ticket items • In computers, models priced above $1,200 showing the least deflation in the category • Price bins are determined based on the price the product had when originally launched (first price).
  • 11. ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 11 DIGITAL PRICE INDEX April 2016 Recap MoM: April vs March MoM: April vs March Difference (percentage) Same Sign? YoY: Cumulative April 2015-2016 YoY: Cumulative April 2015-2016 Difference (percentage) Same Sign? DPI CPI DPI vs. CPI DPI vs. CPI DPI CPI DPI vs. CPI DPI vs. CPI Appliances -1.1% -0.3% -0.8% Yes -4.9% -3.7% -1.2% Yes Computers -2.1% 0.0% -2.1% No -13.9% -7.7% -6.1% Yes Domestic Hotels 1.6% -0.8% 2.4% No 2.8% -0.01% 2.8% No Flights -0.9% 4.3% -5.2% No -4.6% 0.4% -4.9% No Furniture -0.5% -0.2% -0.3% Yes -2.8% -2.6% -0.3% Yes Grocery -0.2% 0.1% -0.3% No 0.5% -0.3% 0.8% No Sporting Goods -0.7% 1.6% -2.3% No -5.5% -0.5% -5.0% Yes Televisions -1.6% -1.8% 0.2% Yes -19.7% -16.1% -3.6% Yes Toys -1.6% -0.4% -1.2% Yes -7.6% -8.1% 0.5% Yes
  • 12. ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 12 DIGITAL PRICE INDEX • Main deflation in May: • Tablets, Televisions & Appliances • Main inflation in May: • Flights, Hotels & Toys May 2016 Summary YoY MoM Appliances -4.5% -1.0% Computers -12.7% -0.4% Electronics -10.3% -1.4% Flights -5.0% 4.1% Flights: domestic -7.1% 4.1% Flights: international -1.7% 3.1% Furniture -3.4% -0.8% Grocery 0.4% -0.2% Hotels: domestic 2.6% 0.7% Hotels: international -0.5% 0.7% Sporting Goods -5.2% -0.4% Tablets -21.5% -3.7% Televisions -18.5% -2.0% Toys -6.5% 0.4%
  • 13. ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 13 • The data used contains transactions for~110K products between May 2014 and May 2016 • Products include large appliances such as fridges,ovens, washers, dryers as well as smaller appliances such as vacuums, mixers, blenders etc. Appliances methodology
  • 14. ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 14 DIGITAL PRICE INDEX Appliances prices decreased 4.5% YoY, driven by big appliances * CPI category “Appliances” used for comparison • Between May 2015 and May 2016, DPI shows cumulative deflation of 4.5% YoY • For May, prices decreased 1% vs April MoM • Main deflation items in May are for high-ticket appliances (above $600)
  • 15. ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 15 • The data used contains transactions for~1M products between May 2014and May 2016 • Products span across dozens ofdifferent categories such as televisions, laptops, Blu-ray players,desktops, tablets, wearables, headphones, video games, printers etc. Electronics methodology
  • 16. ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 16 DIGITAL PRICE INDEX Cameras and smart watch prices decline in May • Prices for electronics decreased 10.3% between May 2015 and May 2016 YoY • For May, prices decreased 1.4% vs April MoM • Main deflation in May happening in televisions, tablets, cameras and smart watches * No CPI category exists for comparison
  • 17. ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 17 DIGITAL PRICE INDEX Deflation for computers slows in May, driven by high-end market • Between May 2015 and May 2016, DPI shows cumulative deflation of 12.7% YoY • For May, prices decreased 0.4% vs April MoM • Main price decreases for computers priced between $700 and $1,200 • Main price increases for high-end computers (priced above $1,200) * CPI category “Personal computers and peripheral equipment” used for comparison
  • 18. ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 18 DIGITAL PRICE INDEX High-end televisions drive price decreases in May * CPI category “Television” used for comparison • Between May 2015 and May 2016, DPI shows cumulative deflation of 18.5% YoY • For May, prices decreased 2% vs April MoM • Main price decreases in high-end televisions (above $2,000)
  • 19. ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 19 DIGITAL PRICE INDEX Tablets see large price decline in May • Between May 2015 and May 2016, DPI shows cumulative deflation of 21.5% YoY • For May, prices decreased 3.7% vs April MoM • Main decrease in May for tablets priced between $350 and $550 • This is an important category not specifically broken out in the CPI
  • 20. ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 20 • The data used contains transactions for~370K flight routes between April 2015and May 2016 • Includesassociatedfees,whereapplicable Flights methodology
  • 21. ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 21 DIGITAL PRICE INDEX Flight prices down 5% YoY • Between May 2015 and May 2016, DPI shows cumulative deflation of 5% YoY • For May, prices increased 4.1% vs April MoM * CPI category “Airline fare” used for comparison
  • 22. ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 22 DIGITAL PRICE INDEX Domestic flight prices down 7.1% YoY • Between May 2015 and May 2016, DPI shows cumulative deflation of 7.1% YoY • For May, prices increased 4.1% vs April MoM • Main inflation states were Texas, California and Florida • Main deflation states were Washington, Georgia and Hawaii * No CPI category exists for comparison
  • 23. ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 23 DIGITAL PRICE INDEX International flight prices down 1.7% YoY • Between May 2015 and May 2016, DPI shows cumulative deflation of 1.7% YoY • For May, prices increased 3.1% vs April MoM • Main price increases in May were for North American and European destinations • Main price decreases in May were for Asia * No CPI category exists for comparison
  • 24. ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 24 • The data used contains transactions for~173K products between May 2014 and May 2016 • Products include interior and exterior furniture, mattresses and other bedding products Furniture and bedding methodology
  • 25. ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 25 DIGITAL PRICE INDEX Furniture and bedding prices decrease, especially for patio * CPI category “Furniture and bedding” used for comparison • Between May 2015 and May 2016, DPI shows cumulative deflation of 3.4% YoY • For May, prices decreased 0.8% vs April MoM • Main deflation items in May are for Patio Furniture
  • 26. ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 26 • Our dataset covers an estimated 30-40% ofall online grocery purchases. Itcontains transactions for~195kproducts (2015- 2016)and is heavily comprised ofgroceries bought online and picked-up in store • The percent ofshoppers buying groceries online is small, but growing by 35% YoY as of February • The mix ofgrocery products bought online is not the same as offline – the top category foronline shopping is drinks (nonalcoholic), while foroffline shopping itis meat • Still, a significant portion of online grocery shopping is dedicated to meats, dairy, fruits and vegetables – more than 50% • When itcomes to products where there’s little substitution possible and consumer choice is minimal (like milk and eggs), the DPI tracks almost perfectly with the CPI. This is a good indication that prices online match offline prices well Groceries methodology
  • 27. ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 27 DIGITAL PRICE INDEX Online Groceries prices down in May, driven by juices & drinks • Between May 2015 and May 2016, DPI shows cumulative inflation of 0.4% YoY • For May, prices decreased 0.2% vs April MoM • Main deflation in May for juices & nonalcoholic drinks * CPI category “Food at Home” used for comparison
  • 28. ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 28 • The data used contains transactions for~250K hotel properties between April 2015and May 2016 • Includesassociatedfees,whereapplicable Hotels methodology
  • 29. ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 29 DIGITAL PRICE INDEX Domestic hotel prices increase by 2.6% YoY * CPI category “Other lodging away from home including hotels and motels” used for comparison • Between May 2015 and May 2016, DPI shows cumulative inflation of 2.6% YoY • For May, prices increased 0.7% vs April MoM • Main price increases in California, Illinois and Washington • Main price decreases in Florida, Arizona & Louisiana
  • 30. ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 30 DIGITAL PRICE INDEX International hotel prices increase 0.7% in May • Between May 2015 and May 2016, DPI shows cumulative deflation of 0.5% YoY • For May, prices increased 0.7% vs April MoM • Main price increases for hotels in North America and ANZ • Main price decreases in Asia and South America * No CPI category exists for comparison
  • 31. ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 31 • The data used contains transactions for~300 K products between May 2014and May 2016 • Products include small equipment and accessories (balls, gloves, uniforms) as well as large equipment such as treadmills, weightlifting tools etc. Sporting Goods methodology
  • 32. ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 32 DIGITAL PRICE INDEX Sporting goods • Between May 2015 and May 2016, DPI shows cumulative deflation of 5.2% YoY • For May, prices decreased 0.4% vs April MoM • Main deflation in high-ticket sporting goods (above $350)
  • 33. ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 33 • The data used contains transactions for~249 K products between May 2014and May 2016 • Products include toys,games as well as playground equipment Toys methodology
  • 34. ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 34 DIGITAL PRICE INDEX Toys have inflation in May, driven by products below $70 * CPI category “Toys” used for comparison • Between May 2015 and May 2016, DPI shows cumulative deflation of 6.5% YoY • For May, prices increased 0.4% vs April MoM • Main price increases for May were for toys priced below $70
  • 35. ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 3 5 Job Seeking Index (JSI)
  • 36. ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 36 JOB SEEKING INDEX Methodology Based on analysis of aggregated and anonymous data from more than 1 billion visits to U.S. employment-search websites and top employer career pages from May 2015 through May 2016.  Adobe Marketing Cloud powers 20 of the top 30 U.S. employers**
  • 37. ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 37 JOB SEEKING INDEX Online Job Seeking declines • US online job seeking is down 8.1% YoY in May • Government reported May Unemployment Rate at 4.5% (down 15.1% YoY), due in large part to a contraction in the labor force
  • 38. ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 3 8 Digital Housing Index (DHI)
  • 39. ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 39 DIGITAL HOUSING INDEX Methodology Based on analysis of aggregated and anonymous data from more than 2 billion visits to U.S. housing search websites between May 2015 and May 2016.
  • 40. ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 40 DIGITAL HOUSING INDEX Online housing search growth slows • Online search for purchases and rentals up 14.8% YoY in May • NAR reports existing home sales increased 1.7% YoY in April
  • 41. ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 41 DIGITAL PRICE INDEX
  • 42. ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 42 Appendix 42
  • 43. ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 43 DIGITAL PRICE INDEX Digital Price Index: Fisher Ideal Price Index ∑𝑖𝑖=1 𝑛𝑛 𝑃𝑃𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 𝑈𝑈𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖−1 ∑𝑖𝑖=1 𝑛𝑛 𝑃𝑃𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖−1 𝑈𝑈𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖−1 ∗ ∑𝑖𝑖=1 𝑛𝑛 𝑃𝑃𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 𝑈𝑈𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 ∑𝑖𝑖=1 𝑛𝑛 𝑃𝑃𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖−1 𝑈𝑈𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 • The Fisher Ideal Price Index uses quantities purchased on the current period (month) and a previous period (previous month) to determine actual consumer’s preferences. Instead of assuming that consumers preferences for what goods to buy are constant over a certain number of years, it is able to account for the fact that they are constantly changing what they buy. 𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹 𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹 𝜋𝜋𝑡𝑡 =
  • 44. ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 44 DIGITAL PRICE INDEX Methodology Comparison: Fisher, Laspeyres and Paasche
  • 45. ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 45 DIGITAL PRICE INDEX Annual Cumulative Inflation Rates
  • 46. ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 46 DIGITAL PRICE INDEX Electronics Deflation in Detail • The average price paid for an iPad mini (all models) has decreased by about 40% since the iPad mini 1 was introduced in November 2012. • Although the initial price tag of new models remains constant at around $400, the automatic discount of previous models causes the average price to consistently fall: when the iPad mini 3 was introduced at an average price of $450, the price for the iPad Mini 2 was reduced by 25% to $300. • This data only includes iPad minis sold in retail websites
  • 47. ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 47 DIGITAL PRICE INDEX Inflation Rates by Price Bins, May (MoM)
  • 48. ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 48 DIGITAL PRICE INDEX Inflation Rates by Price Bins, May (MoM) – Cont’d
  • 49. ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX |Adobe Digital Economy Project 49 DIGITAL PRICE INDEX Job Seeking Online: Traffic Sources • Direct traffic to employment-listing websites is higher than search traffic • Search ranks second