Charting Thailand's Economy Monthly Brief Sep 2015

ISSN: 2286-6132
Charting Thailand’s Economy
MONTHLY
September 2015

About This Report
This report is designed to chart out the economic
outlook of Thailand on a monthly basis. It is ideal
for corporate management, investors as well as
anyone interested in the second largest economy
in ASEAN.
2
DISCLAIMER
All Rights Reserved.
No part of this publication may be reproduced without the prior permission of the publisher,
ChartingASEAN™.
The facts of this report are believed to be correct at the time of publication but cannot be
guaranteed. Please note that the findings, conclusions and recommendations that
ChartingASEAN™ delivers will be based on information gathered in good faith from both
primary and secondary sources, whose accuracy we are not always in a position to guarantee.
As such ChartingASEAN™ can accept no liability whatever for actions taken based on any
information that may subsequently prove to be incorrect.
ASK THE EDITOR
ChartingASEAN™ team consists of editors, analysts, and researchers. For any questions and
comments about this report, you can contact the chief editor directly at
editor@chartingasean.com.
Charting Thailand’s Economy Monthly Brief, September 2015
Publication Date: September 3rd, 2015
Number of pages: 69
Copyright © ChartingASEAN™. All rights reserved.
© ChartingASEAN™
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

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Reading This Report
This report is designed to be read like a
corporate presentation. Readers can easily
follow the content point by point with detailed
charts for each point. Explanation for chart(s) is
provided on the right side bar of each page.
5
• Thailand GDP grew only 2.8% in 2Q15, a rather slow pace compared to last quarter
• Tourism was by far the main driver of growth on the expenditure side
• Service was the main driver, while agriculture and manufacturing were the main
drags
• Manufacturing production continues to lag behind last year’s level
• Private consumption lags behind last year’s level while and Private Investment recovered
• Import declined faster than Export. Tourist arrivals grew impressively.
• Unemployment decreased and stayed below 1%
• Policy interest rate remains on the downward trend to boost growth
• Businesses, Industries as well as Consumers were more pessimistic in July
• Consensus growth forecast is now 3.0‐3.5% for 2015 and 4.1% for 2016
• Thai economy is still in deflation state in August, with both CPI and PPI lowered than
they were a year ago
• Bank’s loan is still growing, although slowly, and liquidity is slightly squeezed. Bank’s
capital ratio decreased but still remained high. NPL increased.
• Budget deficit in 2015 has so far doubled those of last year. Public debt also increased
but not too worrying yet
• Positive Balance of Payment so far in 2015, thanks to trade surplus. External debt has
been decreasing. THB depreciated more than 1% in August.
CONTENT SUMMARY
GrowthStability
© ChartingASEAN™

Real GDP growth
This chart gives the long-term perspective of
the historical GDP growth of Thailand. It
also gives the latest annual growth during
the last four quarters. It shows the real
growth, which already excludes the effect
from inflation. GDP calculations are
prepared by Office of The National
Economic and Social Development Board
and released quarterly.
Historical growth for the Thai
economy
The cumulative annual growth rate between
2003-2014 was 3.4%. During the last 10
years, only one year (2009) that registered a
negative growth. Growth in 2010 and 2012
were exceptionally high, representing the V-
shape recovery from the global sub-prime
debt and the country’s flood crisis
respectively. Thailand GDP grew only 2.8%
in 2Q15.
Slower pace of growth in 2Q15
Chart 1.05 – Historical Real GDP growth rate
Annual growth, percent
Source: NESDB; ChartingAsean analysis
7.2%
6.3%
4.2%
5.0%
5.4%
1.7%
-0.7%
7.5%
0.8%
7.3%
2.8%
0.9% 0.9% 1.0%
2.1%
3.0%
2.8%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15
Note: (*) Cumulative Annual Growth Rate 6© ChartingASEAN™
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.comCopyright © ChartingASEAN™. All rights reserved.
Last 5 Quarters

Source of Growth – Production
side
Chart A shows the real growth rate of value
added from each production sector. Chart B
shows each sector’s contribution to the
overall GDP growth. The contribution from
each sector must add up to the overall
growth. GDP calculations are prepared by
Office of The National Economic and Social
Development Board and released quarterly.
Most contributing sectors for the
Thai economy in 2Q15
Chart A says that Hotel & Restaurant have
grown most from 2Q14 to 2Q15, while
Agriculture dropped the most. Chart B looks
at the contributions to total growth from all
sectors. Most sectors contributed positively
to 2Q15 growth, except Agriculture,
Manufacturing and Mining.
Service was the main driver in 2Q15, while agriculture and
manufacturing were the main drags on the economy
Chart 1.06a – Real growth by sector, 2Q15
Year‐on‐Year percentage change
18.7
17.3
8.6
8.6
6.3
5.5
5.5
3.7
2.8
2.7
2.5
2.2
1.3
-0.7
-1.6
-3.9
-6.3
Hotel&Res
Construction
Financial
Transport
Other social
Health&Social
Private HH
Trading
GDP
Utilities
RealEstate
Education
PublicAdmin
Manufacture
Fishing
Mining
Agriculture
Chart 1.06b – Sectoral contributions, 2Q15
Contributions to total Real GDP growth
2.8
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.5
GDP
Transport
Hotel&Res
Financial
Trading
Construction
RealEstate
Other social
Utilities
Health&Social
Education
PublicAdmin
Private HH
Fishing
Mining
Manufacture
Agriculture
Stat diff
7© ChartingASEAN™

Source of Growth – Expenditure
side
Chart A shows the real growth rate of each
expenditure. Chart B shows each
expenditure’s contribution to the overall
GDP growth. The contribution from each
sector must add up to the overall GDP
growth. GDP calculations are prepared by
Office of The National Economic and Social
Development Board and released quarterly.
Growth drivers for the Thai
economy in 2Q15
Chart A shows that Tourism (X of services)
grew the most in 2Q15. Chart B shows that
it also contributed the most to the overall
growth in 2Q15. Decreasing in export of
goods was the main drag on the overall
growth.
Tourism was by far the main driver of growth in 2Q15
Chart 1.08a – Real growth by expenditure, 2Q15
Year‐on‐Year percentage change
25.1
4.6
2.8
2.5
1.9
1.5
-0.2
-0.3
-4.0
X (services)
G
GDP
I (capital)
I
C
M (services)
M (goods)
X (goods)
Chart 1.08b – Expenditure Contributions, 2Q15
Contributions to total Real GDP growth
2.8
3.3
3.0
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.1
0.0
-0.2
-2.5
GDP
X (services)
Discrpncy
C
G
I (capital)
M (goods)
M (services)
I (Inventory)
X (goods)
Note: (*) C = Private consumption, I = Investment which includes I (capital) = Capital formation and I (inventory) = Change in inventory
G = Government consumption, X = Export of goods and services, M = Import of goods and services 8© ChartingASEAN™

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CONTENT SUMMARY
GrowthStability
© ChartingASEAN™

Manufacturing Production Index
(MPI)
Manufacturing Production Index is a
composite index calculated by the Office of
Industrial Economics, Ministry of Industry.
The composite includes all industries and
weighted by their value added. The year
2000 is used as the base year and the figure
is released monthly.
Latest development
Manufacturing production decreased more
5% year-on-year in July 2015, continuing to
lag behind last year’s level.
Manufacturing production continues to lag behind last year’s level
Chart 1.10 – Manufacturing Production Index
(2000=100)
Source: The Office of Industrial Economics
152.1
161.1
174.6
182.9
170.0
194.2
177.6 181.6
175.7
167.7
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Monthly Average
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
200.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
2014
2015

MPI by sectors
Chart A shows the year-on-year change in
Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) by
sector, that is comparing the MPI for the
latest month with the MPI for the same
month of the previous year. Chart B shows
the month-on-month change in MPI by
sector, that is comparing the MPI for the
latest month with the MPI for the previous
month.
Latest development
Most sectors had their production decreased
from a year ago.
Most sectors had their production decreased from a year ago
Chart 1.11a – Y‐on‐Y change in MPI by sector
July 2015, percent
Source: The Office of Industrial Economics; ChartingAsean analysis
29.2
9.6
6.1
3.7
3.0
2.1
2.0
-0.2
-2.4
-2.5
-2.8
-4.3
-4.6
-5.7
-5.8
-6.5
-6.9
-7.7
-11.0
-17.8
-27.6
Petroleum
Chemical
Vehicles
Paper
Metal products
Food & Bev
Tobacco
Furniture
Apparel
Rubber&Plastic
Machineries
Mineral
Wood products
Precision instru
Leather
Electrical
Textiles
Basic Mat
Transport Equip
Electronic
Office automate
Chart 1.11b – M‐on‐M change in MPI by sector
July 2015, percent
13.3
10.0
8.8
8.5
7.6
5.8
5.1
3.2
2.9
2.6
2.6
2.0
1.6
0.4
-3.2
-3.4
-8.4
-10.3
-10.5
-12.2
-14.1
Chemical
Electrical
Electronic
Vehicles
Metal products
Apparel
Precision instru
Food & Bev
Paper
Leather
Furniture
Rubber&Plastic
Basic Mat
Petroleum
Mineral
Textiles
Wood products
Office automate
Machineries
Tobacco
Transport Equip

Capacity Utilization rate
Capacity utilization rate is a composite index
of the capacity utilization rate of all major
industries. The index is prepared by the
Office of Industrial Economics, Ministry of
Industry and released monthly. Chart A
shows the composite Capacity Utilization
rate in the last 6 months. Chart B shows the
Capacity Utilization rate of the last month by
industries.
Latest development
Seasonally adjusted Capacity utilization rate
has stabilized at 58.7% in July. Rubber and
Plastic has the highest utilization rate at 89
while Apparel has the lowest at 26%.
Higher capacity utilization rate in July
Source: The Office of Industrial Economics
Chart 1.12a – Overall Capacity Utilization Rate
Percent
Chart 1.12b – Capacity utilization rate by sector
July 2015, percent
89%
83%
80%
79%
78%
74%
69%
68%
66%
64%
59%
49%
48%
47%
46%
45%
43%
42%
39%
31%
26%
Rubber&Plastic
Electronic
Textiles
Wood products
Electrical
Furniture
Basic Mat
Metal products
Leather
Office automate
Food & Bev
Precision instru
Paper
Chemical
Vehicles
Transport Equip
Machineries
Mineral
Petroleum
Tobacco
Apparel
50%
52%
54%
56%
58%
60%
62%
64%
66%
68%
70%
Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15
Normal
Seasonally
adjusted

Change in MPI in the world
Year-on-year change in Manufacturing
Production Index from the latest period
across major economies. The chart shows
the current state of manufacturing
production in the world. The figures are
compiled by The Economist magazine.
Latest development
7 out of 18 major economies had negative
MPI growth during the last period reported.
Thailand’s negative growth of -5% was the
second lowest on the list.
Thailand’s MPI negative growth of ‐5% was the second lowest on
the list
Chart 1.13 – Manufacturing Production Index
Latest, percent change on year ago
Source: The Economist
9.0
6.0
5.8
4.4
3.9
3.8
2.8
2.3
1.3
1.2
1.2
-1.6
-3.0
-3.2
-3.6
-4.6
-5.3
-6.1
Vietnam ‐ Aug
China ‐ Jul
Indonesia ‐ Jun
Malaysia ‐ Jun
Pakistan ‐ Jun
India ‐ Jun
Australia ‐ Q1
Japan ‐ Jun
US ‐ Jul
Euro Area ‐ Jun
South Korea ‐ Jun
Hong Kong ‐ Q1
Taiwan ‐ Jul
Brazil ‐ Jun
Philippines ‐ Jun
Russia ‐ Jul
Thailand ‐ Jul
Singapore ‐ Jul

Reading This Report
15
drags
CONTENT SUMMARY
GrowthStability
© ChartingASEAN™

Composite Private Consumption
Index
A composite index representing private
consumption conditions. It comprises of 5
components including Non-durables Index,
Semi-durables Index, Durables Index,
Services Index, and Non-residents
expenditure Index. Prepared by the Bank of
Thailand using 2010 as the base year and is
released monthly and each component was
seasonally adjusted. Chart A shows the
Composite Index movement over the latest
2 years. Chart B shows the annual change
of each component.
Latest development
Private consumption in overall is lagging
behind last year’s level despite big surge in
tourist spending.
Private consumption in overall is lagging behind last year’s level
despite big surge in tourist spending
Chart 1.14a – Composite Private Consumption Index
(2010=100)
Source: Bank of Thailand
53.1
8.6
4.0
0.1
-2.1
-13.0
Non‐resident
Services
Non‐durables
Semi‐durables
Composite Index
Durables
Chart 1.14b – Y‐on‐Y change
Jul 2015 vs 2014, percent
80.0
85.0
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
115.0
120.0
125.0
2014
2015

Composite Private Investment
Index
A composite index representing private
investment conditions. It is constructed from
5 components including Construction Area
Permitted in Municipal Zone (9-month
moving average), Construction Material
Sales Index (3-month moving average),
Imports of Capital Goods at 2010 Prices,
Domestic Machinery Sales at 2010 Prices,
Domestic Car Sales Index for investment (3-
month moving average.). The index is
prepared by the Bank of Thailand, using
2010 as the base year. Chart A shows the
Composite Index movement over the latest
2 years. Chart B shows the annual change
of each component.
Latest development
Private Investment started to pick up and
has been above last year’s level.
Private Investment started to pick up and has been above last
year’s level
Chart 1.15a – Private Investment Index
(2010=100)
17
Chart 1.15b – Y‐on‐Y change
Jun 2015 vs 2014, percent
13.8
0.5
0.4
-0.2
-6.0
-12.8
Domestic Machinery sales*
(2010 prices, Baht)
Composite Index
Construction Area
permitted (sqm)
Construction Material Sales
Index
Import of Capital Goods
(2010 prices, Baht)
Domestic Commercial Car
Sales Index
© ChartingASEAN™
114.0
115.0
116.0
117.0
118.0
119.0
120.0
121.0
2014
2015
Note: (*) figures are 1‐month delayed

Foreign Direct Investment
Foreign direct investment (FDI) reflects the
lasting interests of Non-residents of an
economy in a resident entity. A direct
investor may invest in equity capital, lending
to affiliates, or reinvested earnings.
Investment in equity is treated as a direct
investment when the direct investors own 10
per cent or more of the voting shares for an
enterprise or the equivalent for an
unincorporated enterprise. Data is compiled
by BOT. The left chart shows the annual
figures. The right chart shows the
cumulative monthly figures for the current
year and the year before.
Latest development
FDI value increased 57% in the first 6
months of 2015.
FDI value increased 57% in the first 6 months of 2015
Chart 5.14 – Foreign Direct Investment
Million USD
Source: BOT
8,547
4,853
9,112
2,474
12,899
14,416
12,728
08FY 09FY 10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY
Monthly cumulative FDI*
(*) Preliminary figures
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2014
2015

BOI net application
Value is derived from total investment of all
projects which have foreign equity
participation (shown by registered capital
amount) of one particular nation or the sum
of all foreign registered capital from more
than two nations of at least 10%. The chart
shows the value of BOI net application for
projects defined as FDI.
Latest development
BOI’s net application almost doubled in
2014, but for the first 5 months of 2015, it
has almost been wiped out, registering only
THB 14 billion.
BOI’s net application almost doubled in 2014, but for the first 5
months of 2015, it has almost been wiped out
Chart 5.15 – BOI net application of foreign direct investment*
Billion Baht
Source: Board of Investment
236
396
648
525
1,023
230
14
10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY 2014/5M 2015/5M
Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%)

BOI net application by country
BOI net application of foreign direct
investment projects breakdown by country.
FDI from Japan, the biggest source, has
declined sharply in 2014.
FDI from Japan, the biggest source, has declined sharply in 2014
Chart 5.16 – BOI net application of FDI* breakdown by country group
Percent of total
Source: Board of Investment; ChartingAsean analysis
49%
58% 54%
29%
38%
7%
10%
7%
17%
5%
8%
7%
10%
10%
2%
7%
10%
6%
7%
21%
2%
4%
2%
13% 1%
27%
11%
21%
25%
34%
11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY 2015/5M
Europe
Japan
ASEAN
ANIEs
USA
Others
Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%)
(**) ANIEs: Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea

Key property indicators
Chart A compares key property indicators
during this year to the current month to
those in the same period of the previous
year. Chart B compares key property
indicators in the current month to those of
the previous month.
Latest development
Property indicators have largely declined so
far this year.
Property indicators have largely declined so far this year
Chart 1.16a – Y‐on‐Y change
First 6 months of 2015 vs those of 2014, percent
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingAsean analysis
13.0
-2.9
-9.1
-10.8
Condo unit registered
New housing unit
Constr. Area in municipal
Value of land transaction
Chart 1.16b – M‐on‐M change
Jun vs May 2015, percent
-19.5
-38.2
5.6
17.2

Reading This Report
22
drags
CONTENT SUMMARY
GrowthStability
© ChartingASEAN™

Trade balance
Foreign trade statistics refer to transactions
involving movements of goods out of or into
the Kingdom of Thailand over a specific time
period. It is not equal to the one shown on
the Balance of Payment chart due to a few
adjustments. The charts show the
breakdown of Trade Balance into Export
and Import.
Latest development
Improved trade balance in both THB and
USD terms in the first 7 months of 2015.
This is the case of import declining more
than export.
Improved trade balance so far in 2015 is the case of import
declining more than export
Chart 5.03a – Trade balance* in THB
First 7 months, Billion Baht
Note: (*) Not equal to the one in Balance of Payment decomposition due to few adjustments
(**) Excluding Electricity and aircraft export, adjustment for Balance of payment and exchange rate conversion
(***) Excluding Electricity and military import, adjustment for Balance of payment and exchange rate conversion
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
Export Import Trade
balance
2014
2015
– = -20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Export Import Trade balance– =
Chart 5.03b – Trade balance* in USD
First 7 months, Billion USD
-7.4% -4.7% -8.6%
-3.4%

YTD change in Export by product
The left chart shows the year-to-date
change in Baht term of export value by
product group. The right chart shows each
group’s contribution to the total export
growth.
Latest development
Export, in THB, decreased 3.4% in the first 7
months of 2015. The increase in Automotive
and Machinery export were the growth
drivers while Petroleum, Chemicals and
Agriculture were the main drags to total
export growth.
Export declined 3.4% in the first 4 months of 2015, with
Petroleum, Chemicals and Agriculture the main drags
Chart 5.05a – YTD annual change in Export in Baht
-3.4
12.4
6.4
3.7
2.9
2.5
2.4
0.9
0.2
0.1
-0.5
-3.5
-5.9
-6.7
-6.7
-7.0
-8.9
-9.0
-9.6
-14.3
-14.4
-19.2
-20.3
-27.7
-52.0
Total export
Optical instru
Jewellery
Photo instru
Machinery
Other manufacturing
Automotive
Forestry
Metal
Electrical
Electronics
Agro products
Apparels
Footware
Agriculture
Toiletries
Furniture
Aircrafts
Petro‐chemical
Other export
Fishery
Petroleum
Chemicals
Re‐exports
Mining
Chart 5.05b – Sectoral contributions
Contributions to total export growth
-3.4
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.3
-0.4
-0.5
-0.6
-0.8
-0.9
Total export
Automotive
Machinery
Jewellery
Optical instru
Other manufacturing
Photo instru
Metal
Forestry
Electrical
Footware
Re‐exports
Furniture
Electronics
Toiletries
Aircrafts
Fishery
Apparels
Mining
Other export
Agro products
Agriculture
Petro‐chemical
Chemicals
Petroleum

Export destinations
The left chart shows Export value (in Baht
term) broken down by country of destination.
The right chart shows change in export
value to each destination.
Latest development
NAFTA is the only growing markets for Thai
export in the first 6 months of 2015. Middle
East was the hardest hit market with export
declining 14% from a year ago.
NAFTA is the only growing markets for Thai export so far in 2015
Chart 5.07a – Export by country
Percent of total export in THB term
23.0 24.3 24.6 25.9 26.1
20.4 21.0 21.0 21.2 20.3
11.7 11.1 11.4 11.5 12.0
11.3 10.9 9.5 9.8 10.3
10.5 10.7 10.2 9.7 9.6
5.0 4.7 5.1 5.1 5.2
18.1 17.4 18.1 16.7 16.5
10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY
ASEAN
NAFTA
East Asia
ex‐Japan
EU
Japan
Middle East
Rest of
the world
100% = (Trillion)
7.2%
-3.3%
-3.5%
-5.7%
-6.2%
-7.0%
-13.8%
NAFTA
ASEAN
Rest of the world
Japan
EU
East Asia ex Japan
Middle East
Chart 5.07b – Change in Export
In THB term, First 7 months of 2015 vs those of 2014
฿ 6.1 ฿ 6.7 ฿ 7.1 ฿ 6.9 ฿ 7.3

YTD change in Import by product
class
The left chart shows the year-to-date
change (in Baht term) of import value by
product group. The right chart shows each
group’s contribution to the total import
growth.
Latest development
Import has decreased 7% in the first 7
months of 2015, due mainly to the decrease
in Fuel import.
Big decrease in Import so far in 2015 due mainly to decrease in
fuel import
Chart 5.09a – YTD annual change in Import in Baht
Chart 5.09b – Sectoral contributions
Contributions to total import growth
-7.4
7.7
5.0
-0.2
-4.2
-33.3
Total import
Others
Consumer goods
Intermediate ‐ Non fuel
Capital goods
Intermediate ‐ Fuel
-7.4
0.6
0.4
-0.1
-1.0
-7.3
Total import
Others
Consumer goods
Intermediate ‐ Non fuel
Capital goods

Import composition
Import value (in Baht term) breakdown by
economic classification into Consumer
goods, Intermediate goods, Capital goods
and Others.
Latest development
Intermediate is the major class in Thailand’s
import, implying major portion of import is for
reproduction. It has gained more share so
far this year.
Intermediate goods has gained more share this year
Chart 5.08 – Import by economic classification
Percent of total import in Baht term
7.5 7.5 7.8 8.0 8.7 9.6
17.4 18.9 18.9 20.8 20.8 15.8
44.0 40.0 37.5 35.7 38.3
40.7
20.9
21.3 24.4 23.3
24.2 25.1
10.2 12.4 11.4 12.2 8.1 8.8
10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY 15/7MO
Others
Capital goods
Consumer goods
100% = (Trillion)฿ 5.9 ฿ 7.0
Intermediate –
Non‐Fuel
฿ 7.8 ฿ 7.4฿ 7.7
฿ 4.0

Tourist arrivals
Number of the international tourist arrivals
into Thailand. Prepared by Department of
Tourism using data from Immigration
Bureau, Police Department.
Latest development
Tourist arrivals bounced back in the 7
months, increasing 30% from last year’s
level.
10.0
11.7 11.5
14.5 14.1
15.9
19.2
22.4
26.5
24.8
05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY
Tourist arrivals bounced back in the 7 months, increasing 30%
from last year’s level
Chart 5.18 – International Tourist Arrivals
Million visits
Source: Department of Tourism
Monthly arrivals
Million visits
CAGR
10.6%
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2014
2015

Tourist arrivals by nationality
Chart A shows the composition of
international tourist arrivals by their
nationalities grouped by region. Chart B
shows the top 10 highest change in arrivals
by country and the percent of total arrival
change.
Latest development
Structure of tourist nationalities has changed
a bit over the years. East Asia has been the
largest group in the last six years and the
figure is increasing every year. China and
Malaysia have been the two highest growing
markets for tourists in 2015.
China and Malaysia have been the two highest growing markets
for tourists in 2015
Chart 5.19a
International Tourist Arrivals
by country of nationality
Percent of total
Source: Department of Tourism; ChartingAsean analysis
51.2 53.8 56.0
59.9 58.8
27.9
26.5 25.3
23.8 24.8
5.3 5.0 4.8
4.4 4.5
15.6 14.7 13.8 11.9 11.9
10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY
East
Asia
Europe
Americas
Rest of
world
Chart 5.19b
10 Highest Change in International Tourist Arrivals
by country of nationality
First 7 months of 2015 vs those of 2014, Thousands
2,458.2
765.8
191.8
155.2
141.6
131.6
131.3
112.1
95.2
57.6
China
Malaysia
Hong Kong
Taiwan
Korea
Vietnam
Singapore
Japan
India
USA

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drags
CONTENT SUMMARY
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© ChartingASEAN™

Unemployment rate
Unemployment rate calculated from labor
Force Survey conducted and compiled by
the National Statistical Office (NSO).
Unemployment rate equals unemployed
persons divided by total labor force.
Unemployed persons is defined as persons
with the age of 15 years and over who
during the week in which the survey is
conducted, do not work, have no job,
business enterprise or farm of their own.
Persons in this category include those who
are looking for a job, applying for a job or
waiting to be called to work during the past
30 days prior to the interview date and those
who are not looking for work during the past
30 days prior to the interview date, but are
otherwise available for work during the 7
days prior to the interview date. Total labor
force comprises current labor force and
seasonally inactive labor force.
Latest development
Unemployment rate decreased to 0.8% in
June.
Unemployment rate decreased to 0.8% in June
Chart 2.08 – Unemployment rate
Percent
Source: National Statistical Office, Bank of Thailand
1.83
1.51
1.38 1.38
1.49
1.04
0.68 0.66
0.72
0.84
05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 11-Avg 12-Avg 13-Avg 14-Avg
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
Monthly Average
2014
2015

Unemployment rates in the world
A comparison of unemployment rates across
different countries (economies) compiled by
The Economist magazine.
Latest development
Thailand’s unemployment rate is the lowest
among leading economies. Euro area still
has the highest unemployment rate,
followed by Brazil.
Thailand’s unemployment rate is lowest comparing to other
leading economies
Chart 2.09 – Unemployment rate
Latest, percent
0.8
2.0
3.1
3.3
3.3
3.4
3.7
3.7
4.0
4.9
5.3
5.3
5.8
6.0
6.3
6.4
7.5
11.1
Thailand ‐ Jun
Singapore ‐ Q2
Malaysia ‐ Jun
Hong Kong ‐ Jul
Japan ‐ Jul
Vietnam ‐ 2014
Taiwan ‐ Jul
South Korea ‐ Jul
China ‐ Q2
India ‐ 2013
US ‐ Jul
Russia ‐ Jul
Indonesia ‐ Q1
Pakistan ‐ 2014
Australia ‐ Jul
Philippines ‐ Q2
Brazil ‐ Jul
Euro Area ‐ Jun

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© ChartingASEAN™

Interest rates
Chart A shows the Bank of Thailand’s policy
rate (1-day repo rate) over the last 12
months. Chart B shows the Inter bank
overnight rate over the last 12 months. Chart
C shows the minimum and maximum of the
saving deposit rate over the last 12 months.
Chart D shows the minimum and maximum
of commercial bank’s MLR over the last 12
months.
Latest development
No change in interest rates in the market in
August. It’s worth noting that the BOT’s
policy rate is at 1.50%, which is quite low.
This could limit the option to further
stimulate growth through monetary policy
(by lowering interest rate further).
No change in interest rates in the market in August
Chart 3.01a – BOT’s policy rate
Chart 3.01b – BIBOR overnight rate
Chart 3.01c – Saving deposit rate* Chart 3.01d – Commercial bank MLR*
Note: (*) All Commercial Banks registered in Thailand, excluding foreign branches 34© ChartingASEAN™
1.25%
1.50%
1.75%
2.00%
2.25%
2.50%
Sep-14 Aug-15
0.00%
2.50%
5.00%
7.50%
10.00%
Sep-14 Aug-15
0.00%
2.50%
5.00%
7.50%
10.00%
Sep-14 Aug-15
Max
Min
Min
Max
1.25%
1.50%
1.75%
2.00%
2.25%
2.50%
Sep-14 Aug-15

Government Spending
The current government is trying to boost
the economy by fiscal spending. In the first 7
months of 2015, government spending
increased 12% from the same period last
year. While the effectiveness of such
program is still in doubt, we see bigger
spending from the government in the
calendar year of 2015.
Government spending in the first 7 months of 2015 increased 12%
35
Chart – Monthly cumulative Fiscal expenditure
Billion Baht
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
D J F M A M J J A S O N D
2014
2015
© ChartingASEAN™

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© ChartingASEAN™

Business and Thai Industries
Sentiment Indices
Chart A shows Business Sentiment Index
has been compiled with BOT survey data of
1,500 businesses. Index = 50 indicates that
business sentiment remains stable. Index >
50 indicates that business sentiment has
improved. Index < 50 indicates that business
sentiment has worsened. Chart B shows
Thai Industries Sentiment Index, from The
Federation of Thai Industries survey of more
than 1,000 industrial enterprises. Index =
100 indicates that industries sentiment
remains stable. Index > 100 indicates that
industries sentiment has improved. Index <
100 indicates that industries sentiment has
worsened.
Latest development
Businesses and Industries were more
pessimistic in July 2015. Business
Sentiment Index dropped to 46.4 and the
Thai Industries Sentiment Index dropped to
83.0.
Businesses and Industries were more pessimistic in July
Source: Bank of Thailand, The Federation of Thai Industries
Chart 1.18a – Business Sentiment Index*
Note: (*) Below is the interpretation of the index:
Index = 50 indicates that business sentiment remains stable
Index > 50 indicates that business sentiment has improved
Index < 50 indicates that business sentiment has worsened
Chart 1.18b – Thai Industries Sentiment Index**
Note: (*) Below is the interpretation of the index:
Index = 100 indicates that industries sentiment remains stable
Index > 100 indicates that industries sentiment has improved
Index < 100 indicates that industries sentiment has worsened
49.4
52.4
45.2
50.3 49.1
46.4
0
50
100
Better
Worse
88.9 87.7 86.2 85.4 84.0 83.0
0
100
200
Better
Worse

Consumer Confidence Index
Prepared by Ministry of Commerce through
monthly consumer survey nationwide. The
index ranges from 0 to 100. 50 means
consumer confidence is equal to those of
the prior month. Over 50 means consumer
confidence is better than those of the prior
month. Under 50 means consumer
confidence is worse than those of the prior
month.
Latest development
Consumer Confidence nosedived in July
with overall Consumer confidence index
dropping deep to 33.7.
Consumer Confidence nosedived in July
Source: Ministry of Commerce
Chart 1.17 – Consumer Confidence Index
Note: (*) The index ranges from 0 to 100
50 means consumer confidence is equal to those of the prior month
Over 50 means consumer confidence is better than those of the prior month
Under 50 means consumer confidence is worse than those of the prior month
0
50
100
Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15
0
50
100
0
50
100
Overall On job
Better
Worse
On future income
Better
Worse
Better
Worse

Reading This Report
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CONTENT SUMMARY
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© ChartingASEAN™

Real GDP growth projections
Real GDP growth projections from Bank of
Thailand, National Economic and Social
Development Board (NESDB), Fiscal Policy
Office (FPO) and the weekly poll conducted
by the Economist magazine. The charts also
show growth projections as of past dates,
which highlight any significant change in
projections from each of the forecasters.
The changes in projections normally reflect
the economic outlook as seen by each
forecaster.
Growth projections for the Thai
economy
FPO revised down its projected growth for
2015 to 3.0%. Consensus growth forecast is
now 3.0-3.5% for 2015 and 4.1% for 2016.
GDP growth projections are likely to be revised down further after
the Bangkok bomb
Chart 1.03a – Real GDP growth projections
For 2015, Annual percentage change
Source: NESDB, Fiscal Policy Office, Bank of Thailand, The Economist
Chart 1.03b – Real GDP growth projections
For 2016, Annual percentage change
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
5.50
6.00
J-15 F-15 M-15 A-15 M-15 J-15 J-15 A-15
Forecast as of, month ending
BOT
FPO
The Economist
poll
NESDB
Forecast as of, month ending
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
5.50
6.00
J-15 F-15 M-15 A-15 M-15 J-15 J-15 A-15
BOT
The Economist
poll

International real GDP growth
projections
Real GDP growth projection consensus for
major economies in the world as a result of
a weekly survey by the Economist
magazine. It offers a good comparison
across economies in the world.
Growth outlook for the Thai
economy
According to the Economist poll, Thailand’s
GDP growth is expected to be 3.5% for 2015
and 4.1% for 2016, around the middle when
compared to other major and emerging
economies.
Growth for Thailand is projected to be around the middle of the
pack
Chart 1.04a – Real GDP growth projections
2015, Annual % change, as of Aug 31st 2015
Chart 1.04b – Real GDP growth projections
2016, Annual % change, as of Aug 31st 2015
7.6
6.9
6.6
6.3
5.7
5.5
4.9
3.5
3.4
3.1
2.8
2.4
2.4
2.3
1.4
0.9
-1.7
-3.6
India
China
Philippines
Vietnam
Pakistan
Malaysia
Indonesia
Thailand
Taiwan
Singapore
South Korea
Australia
US
Hong Kong
Euro Area
Japan
Brazil
Russia
7.8
6.7
6.5
6.4
5.6
5.5
4.7
4.1
3.3
3.2
2.8
2.7
2.7
2.1
1.7
1.6
0.6
0.4
India
China
Vietnam
Philippines
Malaysia
Indonesia
Pakistan
Thailand
South Korea
Singapore
Australia
Taiwan
US
Hong Kong
Euro Area
Japan
Brazil
Russia

Reading This Report
42
drags
CONTENT SUMMARY
GrowthStability
© ChartingASEAN™

Consumer Price Index
CPI is the general price level of goods and
services purchased by consumers.
Prepared by Bureau of Trade and Economic
Indices, Ministry of Commerce. Available in
various definitions and by product groups.
Change in CPI is normally used as main
indicator for inflation.
Latest development
In August 2015, Core inflation was slightly
lower while Headline CPI was still lower
than a year ago, suggesting a deflation.
Thai economy is still in deflation state in August
Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; ChartingAsean analysis
Chart 3.07a – Y‐o‐Y change in CPI
Percent
Chart 3.07b – Y‐o‐Y change in CPI by product
Aug 2015, percent
Note: (*) exclude raw food and energy
8.5
2.0
1.8
1.3
0.7
0.7
0.5
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
-0.7
-2.6
-7.6
-17.0
Veg & fruit
Tobacco & alcohol
Food away from home
Recreation & Education
Medical care
Prepared food at home
Apparel and footware
Rice
Seasoning
Housing & furnishing
Non alcoholic beverage
Meat
Eggs & milk
Transport & Commu
Energy
-1.50%
-1.00%
-0.50%
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15
Head line
Core*

Inflation in the world
Change in Consumer Price Index across
major economies in the world. Also the
projected CPI change for the full year by the
Economist poll.
Latest development
Along with Taiwan and Singapore, Thailand
is in deflation state.
Along with Taiwan and Singapore, Thailand is in deflation state
Chart 3.08 – Consumer Price Index
Annual percentage change
Latest 2015*
Note: (*) The Economist Poll
14.8
8.7
6.3
5.4
2.6
3.1
4.1
1.5
1.7
2.6
1.0
2.8
0.7
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.8
15.6
9.6
7.2
3.8
3.3
2.5
1.8
1.6
1.5
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.3
0.2
0.2
-0.4
-0.7
-1.2
Russia ‐ Jul
Brazil ‐ Jul
Indonesia ‐ Aug
India ‐ Jul
Malaysia ‐ Jul
Hong Kong ‐ Jul
Pakistan ‐ Jul
China ‐ Jul
Australia ‐ Q2
Philippines ‐ Jul
South Korea ‐ Aug
Vietnam ‐ Aug
Japan ‐ Jul
Euro Area ‐ Aug
US ‐ Jul
Singapore ‐ Jul
Taiwan ‐ Jul
Thailand ‐ Aug

Producer Price Index
Inflation at the producer level is measured
by a change in Producer Price Index.
Prepared by Bureau of Trade and Economic
Indices, Ministry of Commerce. The chart
shows the changes of the overall PPI and
also the PPI of each industry.
Latest development
Producer price level dropped from a year
ago, resulting in deflation. In August, the PPI
dropped 3.8% from a year ago. PPI of
Petroleum products dropped 30.6%.
Deep deflation at the producer level
Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; ChartingAsean analysis
Chart 3.09a – Y‐o‐Y change in PPI
Percent
Chart 3.09b – Y‐o‐Y change in PPI by product
Aug 2015, percent
5.9
1.5
0.4
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.4
-0.5
-1.1
-2.2
-3.5
-3.8
-4.1
-4.4
-5.4
-30.6
Crop
Pulp & paper
Textile
Non‐metallic mineral
Mechinery
Mechinery
Forestry
Leather & footware
Wood
Other manu goods
Metal
Food
Energy
Electrical equip
Chemical
Livestocks
Basic metals
Rubber & plastic
Fishing
Petroleum products
-6.0%
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%

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© ChartingASEAN™

Bank’s Loan and Loan-to-deposit
ratio
Commercial banks take deposits and give
out loans. Chart A shows the outstanding
loan by commercial banks in Thailand. Chart
B shows the commercial banks’ loan to
deposit ratio, a liquidity indicators in the
banking system.
Latest development
Bank’s loan increased 0.5% in June 2015.
Liquidity in the system remained abundant
despite the Loan-to-Deposit ratio increasing
to 96.5%.
Bank’s loan is still growing and liquidity is slightly squeezed
Chart 3.02b – Commercial Banks’ Loan/Deposit* ratio
Percent
Chart 3.02a – Commercial Banks’ Loan
THB billion
97.7% 97.8%
97.2%
96.4%
95.7% 95.7%
94.9% 94.8% 94.5% 94.5%
95.4%
96.5%
90%
95%
100%
Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15
10,600
10,800
11,000
11,200
11,400
11,600
Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15
Y-o-Y
+4.6%
M-o-M
+0.5%

Non-performing loan
Gross NPLs: the outstanding amount of
loans classified as substandard, doubtful,
doubtful of loss, and loss. The chart shows
Gross Non-performing loan from all
Financial Institutions in Thailand, both in the
absolute and percentage of total terms.
Latest development
Gross NPL continued to rise in 2Q15. The
absolute value increased from THB 299
billion to THB 312 billion or 2.29% to 2.38%
of the total loan.
Gross NPL continued to rise in both absolute value and
percentage of total loan in the 2Q15
Chart 3.03a – Total Financial Institutions’ Gross NPLs Outstanding
Billion Baht
458 401 380
317 270 256 267 278 299 312
07YE 08YE 09YE 10YE 11YE 12YE 13YE 14YE 2015/Q1 2015/Q2 2015/Q3
7.31%
5.29% 4.85%
3.60%
2.75%
2.26% 2.16% 2.16% 2.29% 2.38%
07YE 08YE 09YE 10YE 11YE 12YE 13YE 14YE 2015/Q1 2015/Q2 2015/Q3
Chart 3.03b – Total Financial Institutions’ Gross NPLs Outstanding
Percentage of Total Loans

Capital ratio of all commercial
banks
Capital funds of commercial banks mean
stockholders’ equity. Risk assets mean
summary of all risk-weighted assets
including contingent liabilities converted into
assets and weighted by risk ratio. The
higher the ratio the safer and more stability
in the banking system.
Latest development
Banks’ capital ratio decreased slightly to
16.6% in June but still remained high.
Banks’ capital ratio decreased slightly in June but still remained
high
Chart 3.04 – Capital ratio of all commercial banks*
% of risk assets, at year end
Note: (*) All Commercial Banks registered in Thailand, excluding foreign branches
12.4%
13.3%
13.9%
14.9%
14.0%
15.8%
16.1%
14.8%
16.2%
15.7%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
14.5%
15.0%
15.5%
16.0%
16.5%
17.0%
17.5%
Month End
2014
2015

Real interest rates in the world
Chart shows one way to calculate real
interest rates across different currencies and
economies in the world. Today’s Real
interest rates = Nominal interest rates
(represented here by 3-month risk free
interest rates) – expected inflation.
Latest development
There are quite a few countries with
negative real interest rates. Countries with
negative real interest rates seems to have
low nominal interest rates to begin with.
Thailand’s real interest rate is around 1%.
Thailand’s real interest rate is around 1%
Chart 3.05 – Real interest rates
Percent, as of Aug 31st 2015
3M risk‐free interest rates Expected 2015 inflation* Real interest rates─ =
Note: (*) The Economist Poll 50© ChartingASEAN™
14.2
12.5
7.5
7.4
7.0
4.6
3.7
3.1
2.3
1.8
1.7
1.6
0.9
0.4
0.3
0.1
0.0
Brazil
Russia
Indonesia
India
Pakistan
Vietnam
Malaysia
China
Australia
Philippines
Thailand
South Korea
Taiwan
Hong Kong
US
Japan
Euro Area
5.5
-2.3
1.2
2.0
2.9
1.8
1.1
1.6
0.6
-0.8
0.9
0.6
0.7
-2.7
-0.1
-0.6
-0.2
8.7
14.8
6.3
5.4
4.1
2.8
2.6
1.5
1.7
2.6
0.8
1.0
0.2
3.1
0.4
0.7
0.2

Stock market performance
Chart A shows the monthly performance of
the SET index. Chart B shows the
performance, change in the index level, of
key stock markets in the world, since the
end of last year.
Latest development
SET index decreased 4% in August amid
another round of big foreign sell out. Along
with other markets in the region and the
world, SET has declined heavily year-to-
date.
SET index decreased 4% in August amid another round of big
foreign sell out
Chart 3.06c – Change since Dec 31st 2014
Percent, as of Aug 26th 2015
Source: SET, The Economist; ChartingAsean analysis
5.3%
5.3%
4.4%
2.0%
1.8%
-0.8%
-0.8%
-1.1%
-3.9%
-5.8%
-6.5%
-8.6%
-8.9%
-9.5%
-10.3%
-10.7%
-11.9%
-14.6%
-17.1%
-18.9%
France (CAC 40)
Japan (Nikkei 225)
Pakistan (KSE)
Germany (DAX)
Euro Area (FTSE Euro 100)
China (SSEB, $ terms)
US (NAScomp)
S Korea (KOSPI)
Australia (All Ord.)
US (S&P 500)
India (BSE)
US (DJIA)
UK (FTSE 100)
China (SSEA)
Malaysia (KLSE)
HK (Hang Seng)
Thailand (SET)
Singapore (STI)
Taiwan (TWI)
Indonesia (JSX)
Chart 3.06a – Monthly performance of SET index
Percent change from prior month, at month end
-5.1%
1.4%
-2.0%
0.6%
-4.3% -4.0%
Chart 3.06b – Cumulative net foreign fund flow
SET & MAI, Billion Baht, Month end
-100.0
-80.0
-60.0
-40.0
-20.0
0.0
J-15 F-15 M-15 A-15 M-15 J-15 J-15 A-15 S-15 O-15 N-15 D-15

Contact Information
FinAdvice Department – Private Fund
Tel 02-635-1700 ext. 757, 771, 777
pfadmin@phillip.co.th , fa@phillip.co.th
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Budget balance vs GDP
Overall Cash balances are the sum of
budget and non budget cash balances.
Budget cash balances are the government
revenues net of the government
expenditures. Non budget cash balances
include changes in governmental agencies’
deposit accounts and net positions of
government’s revolving funds. The chart
shows both Overall Cash balances and
Budget cash balances as percentage of
nominal GDP.
Latest development
Government budget and cash balances
have been in deficit in 7 of the last 10 years.
The magnitude of the deficits in the past 5
years have been huge. The worst deficits in
relative to GDP were in 2009 (calendar
year), with budget deficit of 4%. Huge
government budget deficit in 2012, only
slightly better than in 2009. Higher budget
and cash deficit as percentage of GDP in
2014.
Higher government deficit as percentage of GDP in 2014
Chart 4.1 – Government budget and cash balance as percentage of nominal GDP
Percent
-0.5%
1.4%
-2.0%
-1.1%
-4.0%
-0.7%
-0.3%
-3.6%
-2.2%
-2.4%
-0.6%
1.1%
-1.7%
-1.1%
-4.4%
-2.6%
-0.9%
-4.1%
-2.0%
-2.5%
Budget cash balance
Overall Cash balance (including non-budgetary deficit/ surplus)

Budget balance
Budget balances are the government
expenditures. The left chart shows
government revenue, government
expenditure and budget balance (line). The
right chart shows monthly cumulative of
budget balance of the last two years.
Latest development
Government budget balances have been in
deficit in 9 of the last 10 years. The
magnitude of the deficits in the past 5 years
have been huge. The worst deficits in
absolute term were in 2012 (calendar year),
with budget deficit of 414 Billion Baht. In
2014, Budget deficit increased from 2013.
Budget deficit in 2015 has so far doubled
those of last year.
Budget deficit in 2015 has so far doubled those of last year
Chart 4.2 – Government budget balance
Billion Baht
1,241
1,390 1,455 1,498 1,484
1,751
1,902
2,075 2,158 2,076
-1,277 -1,280
-1,629 -1,598
-1,849 -1,825
-1,930
-2,489 -2,424 -2,371
-36
110
-174 -100
-364
-75 -27
-414
-267 -296
Revenue
Expenditure
Budget
balance
Monthly cumulative Budget balance
(Billion Baht)
-350.0
-300.0
-250.0
-200.0
-150.0
-100.0
-50.0
0.0
50.0
2014
2015

Budget and Cash balance
Overall Cash balances are the sum of
budget and non budget cash balances.
Budget cash balances are the government
expenditures. Non budget cash balances
include changes in governmental agencies’
deposit accounts and net positions of
government’s revolving funds. The chart
shows both Overall Cash balances and
Budget cash balances in absolute term.
Latest development
2012 saw the biggest budget and cash
deficit in THB term. Apart from 2010, Budget
cash balance and Overall cash balance are
typically in line with each other. Sizable
budget and cash deficit in the first 7 months.
Sizable budget and cash deficit in the first 7 months
Chart 4.3 – Government cash balance
Billion Baht
-36
110
-174
-100
-364
-75
-27
-414
-267
-296
-97
-45
88
-144
-96
-401
-266
-95
-466
-242
-305
-148
05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY '15/7mo
Budget cash balance
Overall Cash balance (including non-budgetary deficit/ surplus)

Budget balance in the world
Consensus projection of Government
budget balance as percentage of GDP
across major countries in the world for the
current year. The data is compiled by the
Economist poll.
Latest development
Most governments in the world are expected
to have budget deficits in 2013, except
South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore and
Russia. The magnitude of the expected
budget deficits are greatest in US and
Japan, the leading economies in the world.
Thailand budget deficit is expected to be
around 2% of GDP.
Thailand’s budget deficit is expected to be around 2% of GDP
Chart 4.4 – Government Budget balance as percentage of GDP
2015*, percent
0.4
0.0
-0.7
-1.1
-1.9
-2.0
-2.0
-2.1
-2.4
-2.6
-2.7
-2.8
-4.1
-4.1
-4.2
-5.1
-5.8
-6.8
South Korea
Hong Kong
Singapore
Taiwan
Philippines
Indonesia
Thailand
Euro Area
Australia
US
China
Russia
India
Malaysia
Vietnam
Pakistan
Brazil
Japan

Composition of Public debt
Public debt includes direct government debt,
Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss, Debt
Prefunding, Non-Financial State Enterprise
Debt, Special Financial Institutions
Guaranteed Debt, and others. Chart A
shows the level of debt in THB. Chart B
shows the level as percentage of nominal
GDP.
Latest development
Public debt as percentage of GDP increased
significantly since 2009 then dropped
slightly in 2011 before increasing again.
Public debt increased in absolute term and
relative to GDP in 2012 and 2013, due
largely to direct government debt. A slight
increase in Public debt so far in 2015, at
THB 5.7 trillion, or 42% of GDP. Majority of
the public debt is domestic based.
A slight increase in Public debt so far in 2015
Source: Public Debt Management Office
Chart 4.5a – Composition of Public debt
THB Trillion
Chart 4.5b – Composition of Public debt
As percentage of nominal GDP
8% 8% 7% 7% 6%
External debt
as percent of total
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 Jun-15
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2011 2012 2013 2014 Jun-15
Direct Government debt
Direct Government debt
Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss
& Prefunding debt
Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss
& Prefunding debt
Public debt from
State Enterprises
Public debt from
State Enterprises

Public debt in the world
Public debt as percentage of nominal GDP,
data is compiled by CIA.
Latest development
High public debt ratio in most developed
countries. Thailand’s public debt ratio, at
49% of GDP in 2014, is below international
rule of thumb of 60%. Japan has the highest
public debt level compared to GDP, at
228%. Majority of countries with high public
debt level comes from Europe, leading by
Greece, Italy, Portugal and Ireland.
Thailand’s public debt is not high compared to international
standard
Chart 4.6 – Public debt in the world
Percentage of GDP, 2014 est.
Source: CIA fact book
228
181
175
142
134
132
131
119
119
110
107
102
101
101
98
96
94
94
94
93
92
90
89
87
86
1 Japan
2 Zimbabwe
3 Greece
4 Lebanon
5 Italy
6 Jamaica
7 Portugal
8 Cyprus
9 Ireland
10 Grenada
11 Singapore
12 Belgium
13 Eritrea
14 Barbados
15 Spain
16 France
17 Iceland
18 Egypt
19 Puerto rico
20 Canada
21 Bhutan
22 Jordan
23 Antigua and barbuda
24 UK
25 Cabo verde
71
70
67
65
64
59
54
51
49
48
46
46
41
40
38
37
37
37
30
30
24
22
13
12
2
39 United states
40 Croatia
43 Israel
48 Uruguay
50 Pakistan
56 Brazil
63 Malaysia
67 India
71 Thailand
72 Philippines
78 Laos
80 Vietnam
93 Mexico
96 Sweden
101 Argentina
103 South Korea
105 Hong kong
108 Turkey
126 Nepal
129 Norway
133 Indonesia
137 China
147 Russia
149 Nigeria
164 Saudi arabia
Int’l rule of
thumb
<60% of
GDP

Balance of payment
decomposition
Balance of Payments is a summary of
economic transactions between residents and
nonresidents that takes place during a specific
time period. Balance of Payments include
Trade balance, Net services income &
transfers, Capital and financial account and
Net errors & omissions. Trade balance refers
to net export (export less import) of goods. Net
Services are the net result of foreign trade
related to services, defined as the net export
(export less import) of services. Income
consists of compensation of employees,
investment income, and donation and grant.
Capital Account encompasses receipts and
payments pertaining to (1) transfers in cash or
in kind, and (2) acquisition and disposal of
non-produced, non-financial assets. Financial
Account refers to net flows of financial
transactions between residents and
nonresidents. Net errors & omissions reflects
the discrepancy between the overall balance
and the sum of each sub-account of the
balance of payments.
Latest development
Positive Balance of Payment so far in 2015
of USD 5.6 billion, thanks to trade surplus.
Positive Balance of Payment so far in 2015, thanks to trade
surplus
Chart 5.01 – Balance of Payment decomposition
Billion USD
Trade Balance (F.O.B)
Net service income & transfer
Net Capital Movement + errors and omissions
+
31.3
1.2
5.3
-5.0
-1.2
5.6
10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY 15/7mo
29.8
17.0
6.0 6.7
24.6
18.0
10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY 15/7mo
-19.7
-8.1 -7.5 -9.1 -10.4
-3.5
10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY 15/7mo
21.3
-7.7
6.7
-2.6
-15.4
-8.9
10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY 15/7mo

Current Account Balance
Current Account represents the net sum of
trade in goods and services, primary income
and secondary income. The left chart shows
the consensus projection of 2012 Current
Account Balance as percentage of GDP by
the Economist poll. The right chart shows
last 12-month Current Account Balance of
major economies in the world, in absolute
dollar term
Latest development
Countries that are expected to have huge
Current Account surplus are mostly from
Emerging Asian economies. US is still
expected to be net spenders. Thailand’s
Current Account balance in 2015 is
expected to be 2.4% of GDP.
Strong Asian export engines reflecting in huge current account
surplus
Chart 5.02 – Current Account balance
21.3%
12.8%
7.6%
5.0%
4.1%
3.4%
3.0%
2.8%
2.7%
2.6%
2.5%
2.4%
-0.6%
-1.2%
-2.6%
-2.6%
-3.1%
-4.1%
Singapore ‐ Q2
Taiwan ‐ Q2
South Korea ‐ Jun
Russia ‐ Q2
Philippines ‐ Mar
Malaysia ‐ Q2
China ‐ Q2
Hong Kong ‐ Q1
Vietnam ‐ 2013
Japan ‐ Jun
Euro Area ‐ Jun
Thailand ‐ Q1
Pakistan ‐ Q2
India ‐ Q1
US ‐ Q1
Indonesia ‐ Q2
Australia ‐ Q1
Brazil ‐ Jul
69.5
72.8
102.2
68.7
14.5
8.8
291.4
5.9
9.5
97.1
317.6
16.1
-2.2
-27.5
-406.4
-21.6
-41.9
-89.4
Last 12 months, USD BillionAs % of 2015 GDP*

External Debt
External debt refers to the remaining
outstanding portion of liabilities (excluding
equity) which residents have over
nonresidents of an economy. Prepared by
the Bank of Thailand and released quarterly.
Chart A shows external debt level in USD
term. Chart B shows external debt level as
percentage of GDP.
Latest development
External debt level decreased slightly to
USD 138 Billion at the end of 1Q15.
External debt as percentage of GDP
decreased slightly to 33.7%.
External debt decreased slightly so far in 2015
Chart 5.10a – External Debt Level
Billion USD
69.0 74.4 76.1 75.3
100.6 104.3
130.7 139.9 140.7 138.0
06YE 07YE 08YE 09YE 10YE 11YE 12YE 13YE 14YE 15/1Q
38.5%
35.4%
31.4% 28.8%
35.2% 33.7%
38.0% 38.2%
34.5% 33.7%
06YE 07YE 08YE 09YE 10YE 11YE 12YE 13YE 14YE 15/1Q
Chart 5.10b – External Debt as % of GDP

External debt composition
Breakdown of external debt. Chart A shows
the external debt breakdown by borrowers.
Chart B shows the external debt breakdown
by maturity.
Latest development
External debt structure has continued to shift
toward more long-term debt, which lowers
the risk of not having enough foreign
exchange to service external debt.
External debt structure has continued to shift toward more long‐
term debt
84%
80% 82% 82% 82%
16%
20% 18% 18% 18%
11YE 12YE 13YE 14YE 15/1Q
Chart 5.11a – External debt breakdown
Private vs Public
Chart 5.11b – External debt breakdown
Long‐Term vs Short‐Term
Private
Public = General Government and Monetary Authorities
55% 56% 57% 60% 61%
45% 44% 43% 40% 39%
11YE 12YE 13YE 14YE 15/1Q
Long term
Short term

External Debt repayment
capability
A look at the country’s capabilities of
servicing the external debt. Chart A shows
the country’s international reserves as
percentage of short-term external debt.
Chart B shows the external debt service
ratio (Debt service payment / Export of
goods and services).
Latest development
International reserves (as % of ST external
debt) is still at healthy level (292%). Debt
service ratio increased to 4.9% in 1Q15. All
in all, capability to repay external debt is not
yet a concern at the moment.
340%
370%
312%
279% 277%
292%
10YE 11YE 12YE 13YE 14YE 15/1Q
Chart 5.12a – International reserves
As % of ST external debt
Chart 5.12b – Debt service ratio*
Percent
Note: (*) Debt service payment / Export of goods and services
4.7%
3.4%
4.2%
4.0%
4.7%
4.9%
10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY 15/1Q
Capability to repay external debt improved slightly so far in 2015

International reserves
International reserve assets refer to external
assets that are held or controlled by central
bank and are readily available for immediate
uses, for instance, in financing payment
imbalances or in implementing exchange
rate policy. The figures also include the net
forward position (future assets/liabilities
arising from currency forward contracts
between BOT and the market). Chart A
shows international reserves level in US$
term. Chart B shows as number of months
that it can finance import.
Latest development
International reserves in US$ term have
been decreasing since its peak in 2011. So
far in 2015, the reserves decreased slightly
but the number of months that it can finance
import remained at 9.7 months, which is
considered excessive.
Net International reserves decreased slightly in 2015 but still
considered excessive
Chart 5.13a – International reserves level*
At the end of period, Billion USD
6.9
9.1
7.9
13.8
12.6
10.8
9.9
9.1 9.5 9.7
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Jul-15
Chart 5.13b – International reserves as number of months of import**
Note: (*) Including Net Forward position
(**) For the last period using average monthly import value during the last 12 months
73.9
106.5 118.0
154.1
191.7 206.4 205.8 190.2 180.2 174.6
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Jul-15

Exchange rates
Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER)
has been constructed from the weighted
average of bilateral exchange rates of the
baht vis-à-vis Thailand’s 23 major trading
partners and trade competitors. The weight
of each currency varies according to how
important the country is as a trading partner
and trade competitor. An increase in NEER
refers to an appreciation. Chart B shows the
year-on-year change of average selling
rates of selected currencies.
Latest development
Nominal Effective Exchange Rate
decreased 1.4% in August. Over the last 12
months THB appreciated 2% against key
currencies.
THB depreciated 1.4% in August
Chart 5.17a – Nominal Effective Exchange Rate
2007=100
Chart 5.17b – Y‐o‐Y change in FX rate*
Percentage change in avg. selling rate as of Aug 31st 2015
18.1
15.7
14.0
8.5
4.4
4.0
3.6
0.6
-1.9
-3.6
-4.3
-4.7
-6.3
-7.3
-10.9
MYR ‐ 8.7172
AUD ‐ 26.0602
MXN ‐ 2.1507
IDR ‐ 2.7164
EUR ‐ 40.6272
JPY ‐ 29.908
KRW ‐ 0.0305
SGD ‐ 25.6825
INR ‐ 0.5759
TWD ‐ 1.1134
GBP ‐ 55.7311
PHP ‐ 0.7816
VND ‐ 0.0016
CNY ‐ 5.6752
USD ‐ 36.0277
Note: (*) Positive numbers mean the Baht has been depreciated against
those currencies, the opposite applies to negative numbers
USD = US$, GBP = Pound Sterling, EUR = Euro, JPY = Yen (per
100), CNY = Yuan Renminbi, SGD = Singapore $,
MYR = Malaysia Ringgit, PHP = Philippines Peso,
IDR = Indonesia Rupiah (per 1,000), INR = India Rupee,
KRW = Korea Won, TWD = Taiwan $, VND = Vietnam Dong,
MXN = Mexico Peso, AUD = Australia $
100.0
102.0
104.0
106.0
108.0
110.0
112.0
114.0
Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15
M‐o‐M
‐1.4%
Y‐o‐Y
+2.0%
Baht appreciates
Baht depreciates
Baht depreciates Baht appreciates

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without the prior permission of the publisher, ChartingASEAN™.
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cannot be guaranteed. Please note that the findings, conclusions and
recommendations that ChartingASEAN™ delivers will be based on information
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we are not always in a position to guarantee. As such ChartingASEAN™ can accept
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Charting Thailand's Economy Monthly Brief Sep 2015

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