Conference given at University Paris-Saclay / AgroParisTech on 16 November 2020 as part of Master CLUES (Sequence "Everyone Eating Well within Environmental Limits")
3. www.agroparistech.fr
A small quizzโฆ
โข How many extremely poor (< 1.6 โฌ/day) on our planet ? How
many poor (< 4.7 โฌ/day) ?
โข In which environment do the extremely poor live ?
โข How many overweight ? How many suffering from obesity?
โข One child dies from undernourishment every
5 hours ? 5 minutes ? 5 seconds ?
โข One adult dies from obesity every 10 hours ? 10 minutes ? 10
seconds ?
5. www.agroparistech.fr
Global challenges to
food security and poverty alleviation
โข A global food and nutrition crisis
โข Food (and nutrition) security needs
more than increased productivity
โข Received wisdom vs. facts on rural
poverty
โข 2 examples in Africa and Asia
7. www.agroparistech.fr
A food crisis in the developing world
โข 3.2 billion poor < 4.7 โฌ/day*
โข 0.7 billion extremely poor < 1.6 โฌ/day*
โข 820 million undernourished
โข Mostly in Africa and South Asia
โข 80% are rural poor
โข Combating hunger starts with
reducing rural poverty
* World Bank, 2017 - WB poverty lines: 1.9 US$/day (lower
income countries), 3.2 US$/day (lower-middle income), 5.5
US$/day (upper-middle-income)
8. www.agroparistech.fr
COVID-19 is making things worseโฆ
Not only in the Lower Income Countriesโฆ
โThe new poorโ probably will
โข Be more urban than the chronic poor
โข Be more engaged in informal services &
manufacturing and less in agriculture
โข Live in middle-income countries (82%)
โข Live in congested urban settings and
work in the sectors most affected by
lockdowns and mobility restrictions
12. www.agroparistech.fr
Food (and nutrition) security
Food security "exists when all people, at all times,
have physical, social and economic access
to sufficient, safe and nutritious* food
to meet their dietary needs and food preferences
for an active and healthy life"
(UN World Food Summit, 1996)
* nutrition security refers to essential vitamins and minerals required for a
healthy development, esp. of children
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The causes of the global food crisis
โข Long term trendsโฆ
โข Increasing demand โ Increasing incomes and shifts in diets,
globalization and urbanization
โข Decreasing supply โ Insufficient growth of crop yields, low stocks,
shocks on food products supply, climate change, high energy costs
โข โฆcombined with emerging short-term effects that exacerbate
long term trends
โข Speculation and biofuels production hit the poorest disproportionately
โข Uncertainties due to economic instability
โข And of courseโฆ COVID-19 disrupting food value chains, esp. in cities
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Demography is the main driver
Source : UN Population
2 words of caution (Le Bras, 2017)
โข Overall โpoliticalโ projections (eg China vs
USA)
โข Valid only between two crises (cf Sauvy
before WW2)
18. www.agroparistech.fr
More meat in China, more dairy in India
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
10 100 1000 10000 100000
GDP per capita (2000 constant dollars per year)
meatconsumption
(kg/cap/yr)
Meat
China
India
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
10 100 1000 10000 100000
GDP per capita (2000 constant dollars per year)
milkconsumption
(kg/cap/yr)
Milk
China
India USA
USA
21. www.agroparistech.fr
Climate variability will impact on food production
Source: Socioeconomic Data and
Applications Center (SEDAC)
Crop yields drop by
2050 under BAU
๏ Maize 16%
๏ Rice 21%
๏ Wheat 42%
๏ Average - 5% per 1ยฐC
increase
25. www.agroparistech.fr
ยซ To achieve food securityโฆ
โฆletโs produce more ยป
โข A simple (yet simplistic) received
wisdom, still dominating an
โengineeringโ supply vision of the
world
โข Once the response of agribusiness
during the 2007 food crisis, and
again this year with COVID-19
27. www.agroparistech.fr
An evolving discourse,
yet intertwinned with the โoldโ one
โข ยซ Achieving food security requires adequate food availability, access, and
use ยป
โข ยซ Access to water and irrigation is a major determinant of land
productivity and the stability of yields ยป
World Bank World Development Report, 2008
โข ยซ New systems must be built for growing and urbanizing populations,
changing consumption and income patterns, and food and energy security
demands ยป
World Bank Paper on Investing in Water Infrastructures, 2012
29. www.agroparistech.fr
Alleviating rural poverty starts with increasing /
securing yields
โข Not always true - farming is ever less the main source of income, around 50%
Source : IFAD Rural Poverty Report 2011
30. www.agroparistech.fr
The rural poor produce enough to feed their family
โข False - A majority of the rural poor are not net sellers of
tradable food staples (but are buyers or self-sufficient)
Source : World Bank Development Report 2008
31. www.agroparistech.fr
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500
ContributionofagriculturetoGDPgrowth(%)
Per capita GNI (US$)
Burkina Faso
Bangladesh
Bolivia
Brazil
India
Ethiopia
Ethiopia and
Burkina Faso in
agricultural phase
of development
India and
Bangladesh
transitioning to
higher value
activities
Bolivia emerging
slowly after decades
of low growth
Brazil strong growth in the
60โs and in recent years to
emerge as an industrial
economy
General
direction
Rural poverty and development trajectories
37. www.agroparistech.fr
Innovation platforms in Zimbabwe
create local markets for goats
โข Established around local specific production and
marketing systems (auctions)
โข Markets raise the value of one goat
from US$10 to $60
โข Virtuous circle where more money flows to the
producer - an incentive for growing stock feed
and improving rangeland management
"Everyone seems to be operating under the assumption that increasing
production will increase profitability, but the reverse is actually true. If
you increase profitability, then production will go up." (BMGF report on
Innovation Platforms)
38. www.agroparistech.fr
A virtuous circle that triggers change
to a more resilient state
S
S
Recurrent droughts,
increasing climate
variability, poor
connection to markets
Local markets
Producers self-
esteem
Improved rangeland
production replacing
US$15 / goat of
stock feed value
Improved
livestock:
US$ 50 per goat
Goat mortality
down to 10%
Rainfed maize cropping: US$16/ha
Livestock: US$10 per goat
40. www.agroparistech.fr
Among the worldโs poorest
BBS / WorldBank / WFP (2009)
Poverty, food insecurity, vulnerability
๏ฎ 75% of households (HH) with 0.2-0.6 ha
๏ฎ HH income US$700/year
๏ฎ 80% of population below national poverty line
Too much water in rainy season
Salinity and lack of fresh water in dry season
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Untapped potential but growing
pressure from salinity
โข Huge potential to improve food
security and livelihoods
โข Salinity not a constraint
everywhere โ even an
opportunity if water properly
controlled
Soil salinity
None
Very slight
Slight
Strong
Very strong
42. www.agroparistech.fr
Sustainable intensification of polders:
technical and institutional challenges
Lots of viable
cropping systems possible with
crop diversification, fish and
shrimp
Need for political changes at national and local levels
Canal maintenance and management
Shifting from rice monoculture rebalancing powers
Rice Shrimp
Upper threshold limit of salinity -
Rice
Date
Watersalinity(ppt)
Lower threshold limit of salinity - ShrimpDaily water salinity
44. www.agroparistech.fr
Know whom you work for
โข Responding to the
specific needs of various
farmers categories
โข Investment capacity
โข Access to information,
inputs, technology,
knowledge, finance
โข Policy influence
โข Privilege inclusive โ ๏ธ
approaches
Source: FAO
45. www.agroparistech.fr
Donโt content yourself with simple
solutions when facing a complex problemโฆ
From an activist discourse (ETC,
2009) to a more commonly
accepted reality (FAO, 2016)
48. www.agroparistech.fr
References and links
โข CGIAR Challenge Program on Water and Food (CPWF)
โข waterandfood.cgiar.org
โข International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
โข www.ifpri.org
โข Global Nutrition Report (yearly) https://globalnutritionreport.org/
โข The World Bank
โข www.worldbank.org
โข www.worldbank.org/en/topic/poverty
โข World Development Report 2008 on Agriculture
โข Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO)
โข www.fao.org
โข International Fund for Agriculture Development (IFAD)
โข www.ifad.org
โข Rural Poverty Reports 2011 and 2016