Alcune riflessioni sui recenti risultati elettorali che mettono in evidenzia i rischi dalla personalizzazione del voto.

1. IAPC's Rome Conference
17th November 2014
Do Italians represent an emerging trend in political and voting behavior?
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2. Italian political scenario
The Italian political system has always been characterized by:
•
high voter turnout
•
a “conflict” between two blocks, left-wing and right- wing parties (or coalitions), with the right-wing often ahead of left-wing one
•
a limited electoral volatility These three factors have made Italian political system a stable system. 2

3. 92%
94%
94%
93%
93%
93%
93%
91%
88%
89%
87%
86%
83%
81%
84%
81%
75%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
1948
1953
1958
1963
1968
1972
1976
1979
1983
1987
1992
1994
1996
2001
2006
2008
2013
- 5,3%
Voter turnout in general elections 1948- 2013
Voter Turnout in European Election 2014
35%
43%
41%
45%
43%
65%
36%
43%
44%
46%
48%
59%
UK
UE 28
France
Spain
Gemany
Italy
2009
2014
3

4. 4
First Republic VS Second Republic: nothing changes
Source: Demos 2008
Areas of strength for Democratic Party and his predecessors
Continuity between First and Second Republic
DC+PSI+MSI 1992
Area of strength
PDL Area of strength
DC 1992 Area of strength
Lega Nord 2008 Area of strength
PD 2008
PDS 1996
PDS 1992
PCI 1953

5. 4
Results of European and general elections 1994- 2014
35%
43%
36%
36%
41%
32%
36%
37%
35%
24%
17%
Pol 1994
Eur 1994
Pol 1996
Eur 1999
Pol 2001
Eur 2004
Pol 2006
Pol 2008
Eur 2009
Pol 2013
Eur 2014
+
31%
29%
28%
29%
31%
31%
31%
33%
26%
25%
41%
Pol 1994
Eur 1994
Pol 1996
Eur 1999
Pol 2001
Eur 2004
Pol 2006
Pol 2008
Eur 2009
Pol 2013
Eur 2014
+
PDL + Fratelli d’Italia

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Global Trends Survey | July 2014
6
General and European elections marked a big change in Italian politics
2013 General Election: An “outsider movement” obtains a formidable success and emerges as the most voted single party in Italy.
M5S 25,6%

7. Electoral volatility 1948-2013
23,0
14,1
5,2
8,5
7,8
5,3
9,1
5,3
8,3
9,1
19,0
36,7
13,0
22,4
9,5
9,7
39,1
0
10
20
30
40
50
1948
1953
1958
1963
1968
1972
1976
1979
1983
1987
1992
1994
1996
2001
2006
2008
2013
(index of electoral volatility – Source: CISE) 7

8. 8
48,7
40,5
39,1
36,7
30
29,6
26,7
23,9
23,3
23,2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Greece 2012
Spaign 1982
Italy 2013
Italy 1994
Netherlands
2002
Ireland
2011
France 1958
France 2012
Greece 1981
Portugal
1987
The third most volatile general election in Europe since 1945

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General and European elections marked a big change in Italian politics
2014 European election: Democratic Party, led by Matteo Renzi, obtains the 40,8%. It is the best result ever achieved by an Italian centre-left party
2013 General Election: An “outsider movement” obtains a formidable success and emerges as the most voted single party in Italy.
M5S 25,6%

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What happened??

11. Trust in political parties
6%
7%
8%
15%
17%
30%
89%
92%
89%
79%
78%
64%
Italy
Spain
France
UK
UE 28
Gemany
I trust
I do not trust
Source: Eurobarometro 2014 11

12. 12
Current economic situation
71%
69%
64%
64%
62%
46%
40%
36%
34%
33%
31%
31%
30%
24%
24%
21%
21%
20%
8%
6%
6%
29%
31%
36%
36%
38%
54%
60%
64%
66%
67%
69%
69%
70%
76%
76%
79%
79%
80%
92%
94%
94%
Sweden
Germany
Canada
China
Australia
Turkey
India
Belgium
Total
US
Argentina
Russia
Brazil
Japan
GB
Poland
S Africa
S Korea
France
Italy
Spain
Good
DK
Bad
Now, thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in…?
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor

13. 13
My voice counts in the EU
Source: Eurobarometro 2014

14. 14
68
70
81
61
75
51
40
34
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
May-08
May-09
May-11
May-11
May-12
Jun-13
Jul-14
Sep-14
Cattolic
Church
President
of Republic
European
Union
Labour
Union
Trust in political and social institutions
Source: Ipsos POLIMETRO

15. Rise of independent voters: people who are not able to deal with the traditional axis left vs right
11,8
16,1
15,6
19,6
18,0
23,2
21,6
22,5
18,4
19,8
22,1
0
10
20
30
Jan-08
Jun-08
Jan-09
Jun-10
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
mar-13
Jun-14
15
Source: Ipsos POLIMETRO

16. 16
The lack of trust in political parties, in political and social institutions, the weakening of political bonds brought emotions to play a central role in politics. Voting choices are no longer based on a specific political affiliation, they appear to be based on emotions.
Strategic or economic vote don’t fit with Italian political tradition.
Every leader builds his/her narrative plot and uses some specific emotions in order to connect with the electorate: this connection is created by means of “stories”.
Often, in the narrative plots proposed by leaders, the personal biography acquires a central function: it becomes a story among stories, and, at the same time, it turns its protagonist into the most authentic testimonial of the general vision proposed.
From political affiliation to emotions

17. 17
During the European political campaigns, Renzi stimulates emotions through the power of images and his own vision of future and change.
He insists, above all, on the necessity to build a new narrative of the leftish parties, in Italy as well as in Europe, based on a sort of new deal and new hopes.
On the other side, Beppe Grillo bases his campaign on emotions such as anger and hatred. This approach, very successful on general elections, becomes a ‘boomerang’ during European election.
The role of emotions in European political campaigns: anger VS hope

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The leadership in the mass parties used to a collective leadership – a function of the organizational pyramid, while the new generation of parties is a post-ideological organization based on the leader’s appeal. The postmodern Italian leadership is:
•
post-ideological
•
anti-establishment
•
personal
•
innovative
•
sometimes disruptive…
Postmodern leadership

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30% says the first explanation for vote has been the leader
51% agree that “democracy can work without political parties”
Although the Italian political system does not provide for the direct election of the Prime Minister, the vote becomes personal. The electorate votes for the leader, no longer for the parties. .
Source: indagine Demos

20. 20
Tying the party to its leader’s fate could be a huge risk. Often, the leader’s fall undermines the party’s existence itself.
The modern political parties need to reinvent themselves in order to become independent institutions, able to overcome the leader’s fall.
Warning
Forza Italia
Apr 2008 37,4%
Nov 2014 15,8%
Italia dei Valori
Jun 2009 10%
Nov 2014 0,5%
Scelta Civica
Gen 2013 10%
Nov 2014 0,5%
Italy is progressively reaching the US political model: low turnout level, personalization, etc.
In my opinion, Italy doesn’t really represent a new political trend (or model), but it could disclose the issues of politics personalization.

21. THANK YOU
Aldo Cristadoro
Research Director -Ipsos Public Affairs aldo.cristadoro@ipsos.com
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