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The New Economy
Saudi Arabia 2020 | 6 -9 July 2020
Live Online Event
Agenda• Introduction
• Post-Covid-19 World
• Recovery Scenarios
• Policies and Decision Making trends
• New World Order
• Key Traits of New Global Economy
• Digital Transformation
• Concluding Remarks
Agenda• Introduction
• Post-Covid-19 World
• Recovery Scenarios
• Policies and Decision Making trends
• New World Order
• Key Traits of New Global Economy
• Digital Transformation
• Concluding Remarks
Covid-19 outbreak exposed unprecedented socio-
economic threats and the long-term impact still
remains indeterminate.
The global economy is literally in
'free fall' amid COVID-19 pandemic.
Covid-19 coined as the 'Great Lockdown'
crisis – seems to be the greatest global
economic crisis in a century.
Current crisis is likely to be push
the world to a 'new normal', a new
shape and order.
Agenda• Introduction
• Post-Covid-19 World
• Recovery Scenarios
• Policies and Decision Making trends
• New World Order
• Key Traits of New Global Economy
• Digital Transformation
• Concluding Remarks
Lockdown and social distances policies are likely to
create significant socio-economic effects.
Covid-19 pushed half the world’s workforce on
the edge where hundreds of millions of people
worldwide have lost their jobs.
The impact of the
pandemic is felt across all
industries due to supply
chain disruptions and
reduction in demand…
leading to historic climbing
of unemployment rates.
COVID-19 is likely to push 71-100 million people
into extreme poverty (World Bank )
A historic wave of bankruptcies are projected
over the next 18 months, with enormous pile of
accumulating corporate debt.
could be set back by $82 trillion in
damages due coronavirus pandemic
over the next five years.
The global economy
Agenda• Introduction
• Post-Covid-19 World
• Recovery Scenarios
• Policies and Decision Making trends
• New World Order
• Key Traits of New Global Economy
• Digital Transformation
• Concluding Remarks
Economic recovery scenarios are dependent
on successful control of the virus spread and
the actions taken by governments.
The dilemma of public
health and economy?
Agenda• Introduction
• Post-Covid-19 World
• Recovery Scenarios
• Policies and Decision Making Trends
• New World Order
• Key Traits of New Global Economy
• Digital Transformation
• Concluding Remarks
Advanced and emerging economies
adopted Keynesian economic approach
with historic rescue packages.
Agenda• Introduction
• Post-Covid-19 World
• Recovery Scenarios
• Policies and Decision Making Trends
• New World Order
• Key Traits of New Global Economy
• Digital Transformation
• Concluding Remarks
Covid-19
Oil prices
Cold wars
Global debt
Covid-19
Oil prices
Cold wars
Global debt
Global economy outlook highly remains
uncertain, keeping policymakers and businesses
on the edge.
Agenda• Introduction
• Post-Covid-19 World
• Recovery Scenarios
• Policies and Decision Making Trends
• New World Order
• Key Traits of New Global Economy
• Digital Transformation
• Concluding Remarks
1. Growing role of the State
Governments will be under
tremendous pressure to play a more
active role in their economies; to
promote economic stability and
growth.
This would require radical reformation
and restructuring of government
systems in order to revitalize their
economies.
2. Rise of Digital Economy
The digital economy will act as the vehicle through which
national and global markets and economies will operate and
produce the added value.
4th industrial revolution technologies, such as artificial
intelligence, machine learning, robotics, and big data, will
redefine and restructure the economic and social structures.
Governments would need to be at the forefront of the
change, and proactively set the pace of transformation
through alignment of national goals and development
initiatives.
3. Policies will focus on Employment issues
Government policies will pay more attention to reduce
unemployment rates besides the focus on economic
growth, and help increase aggregate demand.
Enterprises on the other hand, will race to ensure
optimal use of available resources as jobs gets changed
by automation and higher emphasis is placed on skills.
4. Re-conceptualization of Economic Value
The concept of “value” will emerge as a
primary measure for exchanges and in
stimulating economic growth.
As value will be associated with intellectual
property, this will raise political and
economical tensions between countries.
5. Reduced Interest Rates
Interest rates will drop to near zero
to help spur spending on business
capital, investments and household
expenditures.
This is likely to lead to increase in
inflation, the impact of which may
take the global economy into the
unknown.
6. Disconnecting Financial Exchanges
from the Economy
The new global economy is likely to trend
towards a declining interdependence on
financial exchanges, and will likely have
modern alternatives for mobilization of
savings, and the creation of liquidity for
investments.
It is unreasonable to rely on an economic
pillar that gets affected by rumors and
causes stagnation and losses in trillions.
7. Continuing Globalization
Despite calls for introverted economic models
along with justifications of dangers associated
with dependence on the outside, the world is
likely to see a new form of globalization.
This would entail new geopolitical maps in
which countries will make ties with each other
based on their national and security needs
and as a counterweight to sudden changes
and crises that may arise as a result of
conflicts, epidemics, etc.
8. Individual ownership
The new economy will prompt new
models of ownership, that will reshape
how the economy works and for whom.
Ownership of capital will become ever-
more pivotal.
9. Reduced Space for Individual Freedom
The Corona crisis has produced a
fundamental change in relation to
individual freedom rights; something that
constitutions have consistently emphasized
over history.
The future will reduce these rights and are
likely to be replaced by many crippling
societal restrictions.
10. Immunity of Societies
This is an axis that would change
economic practices. People's health, levels
of immunity, and capabilities of health
systems will be one of the most important
economic resources and enablers, where
governments will attempt to allocate
higher budgets and commensurate with
their goals.
Agenda• Introduction
• Post-Covid-19 World
• Recovery Scenarios
• Policies and Decision Making Trends
• New World Order
• Key Traits of New Global Economy
• Digital Transformation
• Concluding Remarks
Digital transformation is the only means to
bridge the gap brought by the pandemic crisis
Digital operation has become a necessity in light
of current need to remain physically distant.
Dimensions of Arab Digital
Transformation Framework
Proposed Framework of the Arab Digital Economy Strategy
Arab Vision for Digital Economy serves as a distinctive
blueprint for regional transformation and competitiveness.
Traditional economy methods
won’t survive the storm brought by
the 4th industrial revolution age.
1870: GDP $1.94T
1870
1993
2019 World's Economic GDP Timeline
1870: GDP $1.94T
1870 1993: GDP $40T
1993
120 years
2019
$38T
World's Economic GDP Timeline
1870: GDP $1.94T
1870 1993: GDP $40T
1993
120 years
2019
2019: GDP $142T
$38T
27 years $102T
World's Economic GDP Timeline
Agenda• Introduction
• Post-Covid-19 World
• Recovery Scenarios
• Policies and Decision Making Trends
• New World Order
• Key Traits of New Global Economy
• Digital Transformation
• Concluding Remarks
Covid-19 epidemic is likely to speedup the
acceleration of digital transformation needed to
achieve socio-economic and competitiveness goals.
Governments need to address unemployment
and economic growth with more innovative
mindset in order to transform vital sectors like
health, education, work, retail, …
Economy diversification
Uplifting Productivity
Production Capabilities
Competitiveness
Unemployment
Healthcare
Work and Labour Market
Retail and Commerce
Entertainment/Tourism
Education
Re-defined
Government
that is run by
innovation
and result
orientation
Email: alkhouriali@gmail.com
Slide Share: www.slideshare.net/alkhouri
Academia: http://independent.academia.edu/DrAliAlKhouri
@DrAliAlKhouri
Professor Dr. Ali M. Al-Khouri
Advisor, Arab Economic Unity Council
Chairman – Arab Federation for Digital Economy
League of Arab States
www.arab-digital-economy.org

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The New Global Economy Post-Covid-19

  • 1. The New Economy Saudi Arabia 2020 | 6 -9 July 2020 Live Online Event
  • 2. Agenda• Introduction • Post-Covid-19 World • Recovery Scenarios • Policies and Decision Making trends • New World Order • Key Traits of New Global Economy • Digital Transformation • Concluding Remarks
  • 3. Agenda• Introduction • Post-Covid-19 World • Recovery Scenarios • Policies and Decision Making trends • New World Order • Key Traits of New Global Economy • Digital Transformation • Concluding Remarks
  • 4. Covid-19 outbreak exposed unprecedented socio- economic threats and the long-term impact still remains indeterminate.
  • 5. The global economy is literally in 'free fall' amid COVID-19 pandemic.
  • 6. Covid-19 coined as the 'Great Lockdown' crisis – seems to be the greatest global economic crisis in a century.
  • 7. Current crisis is likely to be push the world to a 'new normal', a new shape and order.
  • 8. Agenda• Introduction • Post-Covid-19 World • Recovery Scenarios • Policies and Decision Making trends • New World Order • Key Traits of New Global Economy • Digital Transformation • Concluding Remarks
  • 9. Lockdown and social distances policies are likely to create significant socio-economic effects.
  • 10. Covid-19 pushed half the world’s workforce on the edge where hundreds of millions of people worldwide have lost their jobs.
  • 11. The impact of the pandemic is felt across all industries due to supply chain disruptions and reduction in demand… leading to historic climbing of unemployment rates.
  • 12. COVID-19 is likely to push 71-100 million people into extreme poverty (World Bank )
  • 13. A historic wave of bankruptcies are projected over the next 18 months, with enormous pile of accumulating corporate debt.
  • 14. could be set back by $82 trillion in damages due coronavirus pandemic over the next five years. The global economy
  • 15. Agenda• Introduction • Post-Covid-19 World • Recovery Scenarios • Policies and Decision Making trends • New World Order • Key Traits of New Global Economy • Digital Transformation • Concluding Remarks
  • 16. Economic recovery scenarios are dependent on successful control of the virus spread and the actions taken by governments.
  • 17. The dilemma of public health and economy?
  • 18. Agenda• Introduction • Post-Covid-19 World • Recovery Scenarios • Policies and Decision Making Trends • New World Order • Key Traits of New Global Economy • Digital Transformation • Concluding Remarks
  • 19. Advanced and emerging economies adopted Keynesian economic approach with historic rescue packages.
  • 20. Agenda• Introduction • Post-Covid-19 World • Recovery Scenarios • Policies and Decision Making Trends • New World Order • Key Traits of New Global Economy • Digital Transformation • Concluding Remarks
  • 21. Covid-19 Oil prices Cold wars Global debt Covid-19 Oil prices Cold wars Global debt
  • 22. Global economy outlook highly remains uncertain, keeping policymakers and businesses on the edge.
  • 23.
  • 24. Agenda• Introduction • Post-Covid-19 World • Recovery Scenarios • Policies and Decision Making Trends • New World Order • Key Traits of New Global Economy • Digital Transformation • Concluding Remarks
  • 25. 1. Growing role of the State Governments will be under tremendous pressure to play a more active role in their economies; to promote economic stability and growth. This would require radical reformation and restructuring of government systems in order to revitalize their economies.
  • 26. 2. Rise of Digital Economy The digital economy will act as the vehicle through which national and global markets and economies will operate and produce the added value. 4th industrial revolution technologies, such as artificial intelligence, machine learning, robotics, and big data, will redefine and restructure the economic and social structures. Governments would need to be at the forefront of the change, and proactively set the pace of transformation through alignment of national goals and development initiatives.
  • 27. 3. Policies will focus on Employment issues Government policies will pay more attention to reduce unemployment rates besides the focus on economic growth, and help increase aggregate demand. Enterprises on the other hand, will race to ensure optimal use of available resources as jobs gets changed by automation and higher emphasis is placed on skills.
  • 28. 4. Re-conceptualization of Economic Value The concept of “value” will emerge as a primary measure for exchanges and in stimulating economic growth. As value will be associated with intellectual property, this will raise political and economical tensions between countries.
  • 29. 5. Reduced Interest Rates Interest rates will drop to near zero to help spur spending on business capital, investments and household expenditures. This is likely to lead to increase in inflation, the impact of which may take the global economy into the unknown.
  • 30. 6. Disconnecting Financial Exchanges from the Economy The new global economy is likely to trend towards a declining interdependence on financial exchanges, and will likely have modern alternatives for mobilization of savings, and the creation of liquidity for investments. It is unreasonable to rely on an economic pillar that gets affected by rumors and causes stagnation and losses in trillions.
  • 31. 7. Continuing Globalization Despite calls for introverted economic models along with justifications of dangers associated with dependence on the outside, the world is likely to see a new form of globalization. This would entail new geopolitical maps in which countries will make ties with each other based on their national and security needs and as a counterweight to sudden changes and crises that may arise as a result of conflicts, epidemics, etc.
  • 32. 8. Individual ownership The new economy will prompt new models of ownership, that will reshape how the economy works and for whom. Ownership of capital will become ever- more pivotal.
  • 33. 9. Reduced Space for Individual Freedom The Corona crisis has produced a fundamental change in relation to individual freedom rights; something that constitutions have consistently emphasized over history. The future will reduce these rights and are likely to be replaced by many crippling societal restrictions.
  • 34. 10. Immunity of Societies This is an axis that would change economic practices. People's health, levels of immunity, and capabilities of health systems will be one of the most important economic resources and enablers, where governments will attempt to allocate higher budgets and commensurate with their goals.
  • 35. Agenda• Introduction • Post-Covid-19 World • Recovery Scenarios • Policies and Decision Making Trends • New World Order • Key Traits of New Global Economy • Digital Transformation • Concluding Remarks
  • 36. Digital transformation is the only means to bridge the gap brought by the pandemic crisis
  • 37. Digital operation has become a necessity in light of current need to remain physically distant.
  • 38. Dimensions of Arab Digital Transformation Framework Proposed Framework of the Arab Digital Economy Strategy Arab Vision for Digital Economy serves as a distinctive blueprint for regional transformation and competitiveness.
  • 39. Traditional economy methods won’t survive the storm brought by the 4th industrial revolution age.
  • 40. 1870: GDP $1.94T 1870 1993 2019 World's Economic GDP Timeline
  • 41. 1870: GDP $1.94T 1870 1993: GDP $40T 1993 120 years 2019 $38T World's Economic GDP Timeline
  • 42. 1870: GDP $1.94T 1870 1993: GDP $40T 1993 120 years 2019 2019: GDP $142T $38T 27 years $102T World's Economic GDP Timeline
  • 43. Agenda• Introduction • Post-Covid-19 World • Recovery Scenarios • Policies and Decision Making Trends • New World Order • Key Traits of New Global Economy • Digital Transformation • Concluding Remarks
  • 44. Covid-19 epidemic is likely to speedup the acceleration of digital transformation needed to achieve socio-economic and competitiveness goals.
  • 45. Governments need to address unemployment and economic growth with more innovative mindset in order to transform vital sectors like health, education, work, retail, …
  • 46. Economy diversification Uplifting Productivity Production Capabilities Competitiveness Unemployment Healthcare Work and Labour Market Retail and Commerce Entertainment/Tourism Education Re-defined Government that is run by innovation and result orientation
  • 47. Email: alkhouriali@gmail.com Slide Share: www.slideshare.net/alkhouri Academia: http://independent.academia.edu/DrAliAlKhouri @DrAliAlKhouri Professor Dr. Ali M. Al-Khouri Advisor, Arab Economic Unity Council Chairman – Arab Federation for Digital Economy League of Arab States www.arab-digital-economy.org