Our latest look at the mood and spending intentions of Irish consumers. Download the historic database here: https://amarach.com/seven-reasons/economic-recovery-index.html

1. 1
Economic Recovery Index
An Amárach Research Briefing
July 2018

2. 22
We have been reporting our monthly Economic
Recovery Index since April 2009.
We set out nine years ago to assess the psychological
impact of the recession and to chart our ‘emotional
progress’ towards recovery alongside our ‘economic
progress’.
We’ve come along way in terms of the economic and
emotional wellbeing of the nation, as evident in the
data in this month’s report.
This report summarises our Economic Recovery Index
results from April 2009 to July 2018: the most recent
fieldwork was conducted during 15th to 22nd July 2018
inclusive.
See how bad it was nine years ago:
https://www.slideshare.net/amarach/the-economic-
recovery-index-july-results-2009
The Economic Recovery Index

3. 33
The ERI – beginning to improve again?
Source: Amárach Research, July 2018
Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of
recovery’ we have created the Economic Recovery Index,
which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = at
the peak).
The Recovery Index and the Irish people’s views on the
current and future state of the economy have improved
considerably since its lowest point in December 2010.
This month – July 2018 – sees the ERI fall back slightly
from its highest level ever at 47.4 in June 2018.
The surge in the ERI in the past 4-5 months would
suggest some positive momentum in consumer
sentiment overall.
Download the full historic ERI database here:
https://amarach.com/seven-reasons/economic-recovery-index.html0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
Apr-09
Jun-09
Aug-09
Oct-09
Dec-09
Feb-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
Aug-10
Oct-10
Dec-10
Feb-11
Apr-11
Jun-11
Aug-11
Oct-11
Dec-11
Feb-12
Apr-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Oct-12
Dec-12
Feb-13
Apr-13
Jun-13
Aug-13
Oct-13
Dec-13
Feb-14
Apr-14
Jun-14
Aug-14
Oct-14
Dec-14
Feb-15
Apr-15
Jun-15
Aug-15
Oct-15
Dec-15
Feb-16
Apr-16
Jun-16
Aug-16
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
Dec-17
Feb-18
Apr-18
Jun-18
Economic Recovery Index
April 2009 – July 2018

4. 4
Consumer Impact

5. 55
Over these past nine years we have tracked the highs and lows (and very lows) in terms of the mood of the Irish consumer.
Consumer Sentiment
% Agree
I am
optimistic in
spite of the
current
economic
situation
I am more
relaxed
about
spending
money than I
was a few
months ago
I am saving
a lot more
than before
My main
financial
priority is to
pay off my
debts as
quickly as
possible
I would be
happy to
borrow
money from
a bank if I
need to
I always buy
the lowest
price
products or
services
I always buy
Irish when I
can
I think that
now is a
good time to
buy a house
for those
who want to
Jul-09 58 14
Jul-10 55 20 27 62 27 64
Jul-11 48 17 26 59 26 62
Jul-12 45 18 25 56 25 66
Jul-13 47 19 25 56 23 56 53
Jul-14 48 23 24 54 23 58 48
Jul-15 51 28 24 52 27 53 50
Jul-16 50 31 28 55 29 49 53 43
Jul-17 54 34 29 62 40 54 57 40
Jun-18 55 36 38 58 41 56 56 38
Jul-18 53 36 38 59 39 54 59 35

6. 6
Mood of the Nation

7. 77
The Mood of the Nation
When we started measuring and reporting the
Economic Recovery Index we wanted it to be more than just another
‘confidence index’.
We therefore set out to measure the full spectrum of emotions
experienced by Irish consumers – positive as well as negative – in order
to provide a unique insight into the real ‘mood’ of the nation.
Emotions drive buying, saving and investment decisions… and
ultimately drive the wider economy: therefore understanding emotions
gives us insight into the drivers of short run dynamics in terms of
consumer markets and even growth prospects.
One of the more concerning trends in our data is that despite recent
economic improvements, certain measures of the nation’s emotional
wellbeing (the levels of both positive and negative emotions) appear to
be getting worse rather than better – which may mean that the
headline improvements are still not translating into meaningful material
gains for many Irish citizens.

8. 88
The Mood of the Nation April 2009 – July 2018: % Experienced a Lot Yesterday – I
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to July 2018 (boredom and loneliness added 2014)
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
jul
Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry Anxiety

9. 99
The Mood of the Nation April 2009 – July 2018: % Experienced a Lot Yesterday – II
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to July 2018 (Boredom and loneliness added in 2014)
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Sadness Pain Anger Boredom Loneliness

10. 10
Amárach Outlook

11. 1111
There is clearly a renewed buoyancy in
Irish consumer sentiment as measured in
our indicators and in others as well.
Other things being equal, the spending
outlook for Irish consumer markets over
the rest of 2018 is very strong – perhaps
the strongest it has been in 10 years.
As we head into the second half of 2018,
the scene looks set for a benign run over
the remainder of the year.
Outlook – Benign Run to Year End

12. 1212
We survey 1,000 adults every month to
create the Economic Recovery Index
We also track dozens of data series
relating to customer experience,
spending levels, and switching intentions
also as part of the same survey
You can view the full list (as well as a free
dashboard with our latest data and
forecasts) at getPlanR.com
Try out the free version for a one week
trial period
Download our brochure here:
https://www.slideshare.net/amarach/pla
nr-business-intelligence-service
Get PlanR and get Planning

13. 1313
e. info@amarach.com
t. 01 410 5200
w. www.amarach.com
b. www.amarach.com/blog
Tw. twitter.com/AmarachResearch
s. slideshare.net/amarach/