Breaking Waters: the birth of a new Nile state

Breaking Waters: The Birth of a New Nile State . STEPS Centre Water Seminar Brighton, 22 February 2011 Ana Elisa Cascão Stockholm International Water Institute – SIWI (Sweden) Center of African Studies – ISCTE (Portugal)

Nile River Basin THE REGION 10 riparian states 160 million inhabitants Underdeveloped economies Conflict-stricken region Low levels of regional integration

Nile Basin Hydropolitics SECURITISATION HYDRO-SOVEREIGNTY COOPERATION ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Nile Basin Political Economy pre-2011 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Nile Basin Political Economy pre-2011 Changing realpolitik : new geopolitical actors, corridors, dynamics, ... ‘ Land grabbing’: Growing economic interest for Nile natural resources Regional integration: Towards economic multilaterism Unilateralism: Unilateral hydraulic development

Hydropolitics pre-2011 Official ‘ diad’ UpstreamBloc

2010: Cooperation and changing power relations Trojan Horse of upstreamers

2011: ‘Revolutions’ in the making in the Nile Basin Velvet divorce in Sudan Popular uprising in Egypt

Southern Sudan: the 11th Nile riparian Border demarcation (as 1956)

Southern Sudan: the political process the post-referendum negotiations

Nile Waters: What is in it for Southern Sudan?

A midstream or an upstream riparian? Jonglei Canal

When Oil or Water politics mix

Meanwhile.... in northern Sudan ,[object Object],[object Object]

Egypt, revolution and Nile ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Egypt vs. Upstream: power is relational ,[object Object],[object Object]

Crystal Ball ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Breaking Waters: the birth of a new Nile state

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Breaking Waters: the birth of a new Nile state