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  1. 1. Climate variability and food security in the Nile Basin region: challenges and opportunities 3rd Nile Basin Basin Development Forum (NBDF) Kigali – Rwanda 27 October 2011 Ana Elisa Cascão Stockholm International Water Institute Rwanda
  2. 2. Current agriculture-related challenges <ul><li>Agriculture: backbone of Nile political economy </li></ul><ul><li>Agriculture: main source of livelihoods and employment (and often GDP) </li></ul><ul><li>Generalised food insecurity </li></ul><ul><li>Dependence on food aid/agriculture exports </li></ul><ul><li>Low level of inter-basin agricultural trade </li></ul><ul><li>National-based agricultural agendas </li></ul><ul><li>Agriculture at regional level: extremely politicised issue! </li></ul>Sudan
  3. 3. Current climate-related challenges <ul><li>Existing </li></ul><ul><li>climate variability: </li></ul><ul><li>Uneven rainfall patterns </li></ul><ul><li>Drought-prone regions </li></ul><ul><li>Inefficient agriculture practices </li></ul><ul><li>Weak infrastructure (reservoirs, irrigation systems,...) </li></ul><ul><li>Blue water: enough for all? </li></ul><ul><li>Green water: great potential, but how to quantify and manage? </li></ul>Kenya
  4. 4. [Future] climate change and its impacts on agriculture <ul><li>More rainfall variability?/ Less water availability?  IMPACTS? </li></ul><ul><li>Rainfed agriculture and livestock – at risk! </li></ul><ul><li>Irrigated agriculture – underdeveloped potential </li></ul><ul><li>Solution: improved rainfed + supplementary irrigation + livestock management? </li></ul><ul><li>Solutions: </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>- produce less... </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>- produce differently... </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>- trade more... </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Regional division of labour;? </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Cash-crops for food-crops? </li></ul></ul></ul></ul>Ethiopia
  5. 5. Huge agricultural opportunities: production + trade <ul><li>Regional/Global ‘breadbasket’ potential </li></ul><ul><li>Fertile land and water resources availability </li></ul><ul><li>Attractive for cash-crop investors </li></ul><ul><li>Increasing foreign land acquisitions (pros and cons) </li></ul><ul><li>Potential for regional agricultural market </li></ul><ul><li>Regional ‘virtual water’ market </li></ul><ul><li>Division of labour: where and when to produce and buy/sell? </li></ul>South Sudan
  6. 6. Regional cooperation on agriculture:what future? <ul><li>Past: relevance of agriculture in the NBI agenda and projects on-the-ground (SAPs)? </li></ul><ul><li>Present: agriculture development is still a politically sensitive issue </li></ul><ul><li>Short-term future: what will be the agricultural functions of the future Nile Basin Commission? </li></ul><ul><li>Long-term future: how to incorporate growing climate variability in the Nile Basin region? </li></ul>Uganda
  7. 7. ‘ Institutionalising’ agriculture at the regional level <ul><li>Role and functions of the future Nile Basin Commission? </li></ul><ul><li> (based on the CFA) </li></ul><ul><li>Role: </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Providing guidelines? </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Regulator? Watchdog? </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Developmental? </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Functions (what priority?): </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Policy Formulation and Cooperation </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Knowledge Management </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Basin Planning </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Market Development </li></ul></ul></ul>Egypt Should it be the NBC or a REC performing these functions?
  8. 8. Thanks for your attention! [email_address] Tanzania