The document discusses the potential and limits of bargaining power between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia over sharing the waters of the Nile River. It notes that while Ethiopia and Sudan's upstream locations and growing economies could challenge Egypt's historical dominance over the river, reaching an equitable agreement that satisfies all parties may be difficult given Egypt's reluctance to cede control, challenges implementing any deal, and geopolitical factors that have historically favored Egypt's interests.

1. Potential and Limits of Bargaining Power on the Nile . Hydro-Hegemony Workshop 5 London, 8-9 May 2010 Ana Elisa Cascão

2. EGYPT (HH) SUDAN ETHIOPIA + Upstream Block Geography Geography Geography Material power Material power Material power Bargaining power Bargaining power Bargaining power Ideational power Ideational power Ideational power Adapted from Zeitoun and Warner, 2006 Hydro-Hegemony in the Nile Basin

3. Deadlock situation

4. Negotiations on the Nile and potential for collective bargaining power

5. Negotiating a new Nile agreement: ‘what is in there for me?’ New Nile Agreement Egypt Ethiopia

6. What are the negotiations about? 10 years

7. Shifts in bargaining power Cascão and Zeitoun, 2010

8. Can bargaining power trump hard power? POTENTIAL Collective bargaining power Challenge/Pressure Balance of power Changes in the status quo Framework for ‘equitable utilisation’ (institutionalisation) LIMITS Agreement without hegemon? Implementation challenges Egypt’s response Geopolitics Donors behaviour Access to investment

9. Thanks! [email_address]