1. The Sudans and the NilesThe Sudans and the Niles
Ana Elisa Cascao, SIWIAna Elisa Cascao, SIWI
Addis Ababa, 11 June 2013Addis Ababa, 11 June 2013

2. Map: the Sudans and the NilesMap: the Sudans and the Niles
Not upstream,
not downstream
but midstream

3. The ‘hidden’ maps: the trianglesThe ‘hidden’ maps: the triangles

4. Sudans: key players in the Nile hydropoliticsSudans: key players in the Nile hydropolitics
North Sudan:North Sudan: the riparian state that can utilise
more Nile water resources
South Sudan:South Sudan: the riparian state can (potentially)
increase the Nile water resources
King-makersKing-makers in the complex hydropolitical Nile
game (multilateral, trilateral and bilateral)

5. North Sudan:North Sudan:
the wild hydropolitical cardthe wild hydropolitical card
• Current and future uses of the Nile waters
• Water consumption:
the nexus between irrigation, livestock & energy
• Water diplomacy:
looking down (dyad) & looking up (potential)

7. North Sudan: the irrigation potentialNorth Sudan: the irrigation potential

8. North Sudan:North Sudan:
the irrigationthe irrigation
potentialpotential

9. North Sudan: the livestock potentialNorth Sudan: the livestock potential

10. North Sudan:North Sudan:
the livestockthe livestock
potentialpotential
Source: Sudan Central Bureau of Statistics (unpublished data); In Pastoralism
Briefing Papers, part of UNEP Sudan Integrated Environment Project

11. North Sudan: current and futureNorth Sudan: current and future
hydro-economic strategy?hydro-economic strategy?
• Oil or agriculture/livestock
• Back to the breadbasket idea?
• Sugar/Ethanol ambitions
• Is there water enough?

12. South Sudan: the new Nile riparianSouth Sudan: the new Nile riparian
• 11th Nile riparian state
• Part of the two Nile regions
• Prospects for agriculture, livestock & hydropower
• Current and future hydro-economic strategy?
• Hydropolitical positionality?

13. South Sudan:South Sudan:
Resource-basedResource-based
developmentdevelopment
• The rise and fall of an oil economy
• Back to the basics…Agriculture
and Livestock
• Trade-offs and social conflicts
• Increasing energy demands

14. South Sudan and the Nile in theSouth Sudan and the Nile in the
post-independence periodpost-independence period
Alignment:
1959 Agreement
or CFA?
• Foreign Policy
• Negotiations
• Water Allocations
• Jonglei Canal

15. Pre and Post-Referendum NegotiationsPre and Post-Referendum Negotiations
Hydropolitical
implications of South
Sudan’s secession?
Nile discussions in 2 folders:
• International Agreements
and
• Natural Resources

16. Scenarios: South Sudan vis-à-vis the NileScenarios: South Sudan vis-à-vis the Nile

17. South Sudan: Up the Nile, Down the Nile?South Sudan: Up the Nile, Down the Nile?
• Political and econonic
calculations
• Political and economic
relations with Egypt
and Sudan
• Political and economic
relations with African
neighbours (Ethiopia,
Uganda, Kenya, and other
EAC countries)

18. Jonglei Canal:Jonglei Canal:
yes or not
(or maybe)?

19. Jonglei Canal: the creation of a new border?Jonglei Canal: the creation of a new border?
Jonglei Canal: a symbol of colonialism and a symbol of war
Impacts: hydrological, environmental, social, political, ...
Technical engineering or social-political engineering?
?
JongleiCanal

20. Nile: the bridge between the two Sudans?Nile: the bridge between the two Sudans?
Agriculture
Energy
Hydropolitics

21. New book
Resource-based conflict and
cooperation in South Sudan
and Gambella (Ethiopia):
When Water, Land and Oil
Mix With Politics

22. Thanks for your
attention!
ana.cascao@siwi.org