Bass diffusion Model

1. Bass Diffusion Modeling
9 46
Innovation Immitation Universe
0.009 0.46 100000
See how changes in the innovation
and immitation rates affect the
shape of the adoption curves below
New Customers Cumulative Customers
by Period by Period
14000 120000
12000
100000
10000
80000
8000
# Customers
#Customers
60000
6000
40000
4000
2000 20000
0 0
Row 12 Row 16 Row 20 Row 24 Row 28 Row 12 Row 16 Row 20 Row 24 Row 28
Row 10 Row 14 Row 18 Row 22 Row 26 Row 30 Row 10 Row 14 Row 18 Row 22 Row 26 Row 30
Period Period
Sample Categories:
Innovation Imitation
Mean 0.0300 0.3800
B&W TV 0.0280 0.2500
Color TV 0.0050 0.8400
VCR 0.0250 0.6000
Steam Irons 0.0290 0.3300
Electric Blanket 0.0060 0.2400
Microwave oven 0.0020 0.3560
Home PC 0.1210 0.2810
Digital Cameras 0.0020 0.1400
Internet 0.0136 0.3000
Broadband 0.0070 0.5000
Calculators 0.1430 0.5200
Cell Phones 0.0080 0.4210

3. The Stats:
New % of Total
Period Customers Prospects Customers
0 0 0%
1 900 1% 900 1%
2 1302 1% 2202 2%
3 1871 2% 4073 4%
4 2661 3% 6734 7%
mulative Customers
5 3728 4% 10462 10%
by Period
6 5115 5% 15577 16%
7 6809 7% 22386 22%
8 8691 9% 31077 31%
9 10473 10% 41550 42%
10 11698 12% 53247 53%
11 11872 12% 65120 65%
12 10762 11% 75882 76%
13 8636 9% 84518 85%
14 6159 6% 90676 91%
15 3973 4% 94649 95%
16 2378 2% 97027 97%
17 1354 1% 98381 98%
18 747 1% 99128 99%
19 405 0% 99534 100%
20 218 0% 99751 100%
21 116 0% 99868 100%
Row 16 Row 20 Row 24 Row 28 22 62 0% 99930 100%
w 14 Row 18 Row 22 Row 26 Row 30
23 33 0% 99963 100%
Period 24 18 0% 99980 100%
25 9 0% 99989 100%
26 5 0% 99994 100%
27 3 0% 99997 100%
28 1 0% 99998 100%
29 1 0% 99999 100%
30 0 0% 100000 100%
31 0 0% 100000 100%
32 0 0% 100000 100%
33 0 0% 100000 100%
34 0 0% 100000 100%
35 0 0% 100000 100%
36 0 0% 100000 100%
37 0 0% 100000 100%
38 0 0% 100000 100%
39 0 0% 100000 100%
40 0 0% 100000 100%
41 0 0% 100000 100%
42 0 0% 100000 100%
43 0 0% 100000 100%
44 0 0% 100000 100%

4. 45 0 0% 100000 100%
46 0 0% 100000 100%
47 0 0% 100000 100%
48 0 0% 100000 100%
49 0 0% 100000 100%
50 0 0% 100000 100%
51 0 0% 100000 100%
52 0 0% 100000 100%
53 0 0% 100000 100%
54 0 0% 100000 100%
55 0 0% 100000 100%
56 0 0% 100000 100%
57 0 0% 100000 100%
58 0 0% 100000 100%
59 0 0% 100000 100%
60 0 0% 100000 100%