Pmp chap 11 - project risk management - Part 2

By: Anand Bobade (nmbobade@gmail.com)
Learn Project Management & prepare for PMP exam:
• Learn visually
• Detailed coverage of all PMP concepts
• Sample Questions
PMBOK Chapter 11 :
Project Risk Management (Part 2)
Monitor & Control Risk
Monitoring
& Control
Planning
Plan Risk
management
Identify Risk
Perform Qualitative
Risk Analysis
Perform Quantitative
Risk Analysis
Plan Risk Response

Learning Objectives – 11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
Definition
Diff. between Qualitative & Quantitative risk Analysis
Why Quantitative Risk Analysis?
Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis: ITTO
Summary
Guidelines for exam questions

Introduction – Risk Management Processes
11.1 Plan Risk Management
• Define how to conduct risk management
activities
11.2 Identify Risks
• Determine & document which risks may
affect the project
11.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis
• Prioritize risks by analyzing their probability
& impact.

Introduction – Risk Management Processes
11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
• Numerically analyze the effect of identified
risks.
11.5 Plan Risk Responses
• How to respond to enhance opportunities &
to reduce threats
11.6 Control Risk
• Track risk, monitor residual risks, identify new
risks, & evaluate effectiveness of risk planning.

Numerically analyzing the effect of identified
risks on overall project objectives.
It produces quantitative risk information to support
decision making.
Prioritized Risk
(Qualitative Analysis)
Quantitative Analysis
Impact on project
objectives

Purpose of this process:
Determine which risk events warrant a response.
Determine overall project risk (risk exposure).
Determine quantified probability of meeting proj. objectives.
Determine cost and schedule reserves.
Identify risks requiring the most attention.
Create realistic & achievable cost, schedule, or scope targets.

This process can be skipped if Risks doesn’t require this
approach
PM may not consider this process due to insufficient
data to develop analysis models
There is no need to perform in depth Risk analysis for
every project.
PM should exercise expert judgment to decide on the
need.
Availability of Time & budget should be consider to
decide

11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis->ITTO
Inputs (6)
• Risk management
plan
• Cost management
plan
• Schedule
management plan
• Risk register
• EEF
• OPA
Tools &
Techniques(3)
• Data gathering and
representation
techniques
• Quantitative risk
analysis & modeling
techniques
• Expert judgment
Outputs
• Project
document
updates

Risk
Management
Plan
Cost
Management
Plan
Schedule
Management
Plan
Risk Register EEF OPA
11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis->Inputs

Risk
Management
Plan
Defines projects Risk Management Roadmap
Proposed processes & Methods
Resource, Schedule & Budget requirements
Stakeholder - Roles & Responsibilities
Risk Categorization
11.4 Perform Quantitative RA->Inputs->RMP

Risk Register
List of Identified Risks
Potential Response
Root Cause
Risk Ranking (from Qualitative analysis)
11.4 Perform Quantitative RA->Inputs->Risk Register

Cost
Management
Plan
Both plans are crucial part of
Project Management Plan.
It contains direction on Cost &
schedule, and how to manage it.
They are crucial inputs to
perform numerical analysis .}}
Schedule
Management
Plan
11.4 Perform Quantitative RA->Inputs->CMP & SMP

EEF
Commercial
Databases
Academic
studies
Published
checklists
Benchmarking
Industry
studies
Risk attitudes
11.4 Perform Quantitative RA->Inputs->EEF

OPA
Categories
Common
Definitions &
terms
Risk statement
format
Templates Lesson learned
11.4 Perform Quantitative RA->Inputs->EEF & OPA

Data gathering &
Representation
Techniques
Quantitative Risk
analysis &
Modeling
Techniques
Expert
Judgment
11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis->T&T

Data gathering &
Representation
Techniques
Key Techniques:
Interviewing Probability Distribution
Sensitivity analysis Expected Monetary Value
(EMV):
11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis->T&T->DG&RT

Data gathering &
Representation
Techniques
Interviewing:
• Experience & Historical data
• Quantify probability & impact of Risk
Data based
on Expert
Opinion
Likelihood of completing the project

Data gathering &
Representation
Techniques
What is Probability?
• Probability is measurement of
likelihood of occurrence of any event.
Example:
• If you toss a coin, it will either show
heads or the tails.
• 50% chance of showing heads & 50%
chance of showing tails.
What is probability?
• The probability of showing heads or
tails is 50% (or 1/2).

Data gathering &
Representation
Techniques
Probability Formula & Example:
• = “Number of favourable events that can
occur” / “Total number of events”
Probability of an
event happening
• = 2 [Coin can either show heads or tail ]
Total number of
events
• = 1
Total number of
favourable events
• = (Number of favourable events)/(Total
number of events)
Probability of
showing heads
• = ½ = 50%
Probability of
showing heads

Data gathering &
Representation
Techniques
Probability Example2:
If you throw a dice, what is the probability of the number
3 coming up.
• = “Number of favourable events
that can occur” / “Total number of
events”
Probability of an
event happening
• = 6
[dice can show 1 or 2 or 3 or 4 or 5
or 6]
Total number of
events
• = 1 [You want dice to show no 3]
Total number of
favourable events
• = 1/6 = 16.67%
Probability of
showing heads

Data gathering &
Representation
Techniques
Probability Example3:
For given project, Probability of completing one Task
on time is 90%. What is probability of completing all
scheduled task on time?
=100*0.90
= 90%
=90*0.90
=81%
=81*0.90
=72%
=72*0.90
=65%
Task 1 Task 2 Task 3 Task 4
Probability of
Individual Tasks
90% 90% 90% 90%
One Task
(90%)
Two Tasks
(90% of prev.)
Three tasks
(90% of prev.)
All tasks
(90% of prev.)

Data gathering &
Representation
Techniques
What is Impact?
• The amount that will have to spend if
any identified risk occurs.
Example:
• During execution, PM identified
Software licenses cost are increased &
will need additional 100 thousand.
• The impact of risk = 100 thousand.

Data gathering &
Representation
Techniques
Probability distribution
• Used to plot range of cost & schedule
associated with a risk.
• Used extensively in
modelling & simulations
• Represent uncertainty in
values such as duration of
schedule activities & cost
of project components
Continuous Distribution:
• Used to represent
uncertain event, such as a
outcome of a test or a
possible scenarios in the
decision tree.
• E.g., Flipping a coin
Discrete Distribution:

Data gathering &
Representation
Techniques
Continuos distribution
Beta Triangular Normal Uniform
Beta distribution
• Describe uncertainty about probability of occurrence
of an event
• Is based on two shaped parameters
• Range from 0 to 1 & can take several types of shapes.
Triangular distribution:
• Uses estimate values based on the 3 point estimates
• Use only 3 values
• Is used to quantify risks for each of the WBS elements

Data gathering &
Representation
Techniques
Normal distribution:
• Is shaped like a bell curve
• The peak of the bell is the Mean/Average
• Used for variables that cluster around
Mean
• Used to show confidence level & variations

Data gathering &
Representation
Techniques
Uniform distribution:
• Simplest form of distributions
• All values of same length (equal
probability)
• Need to know upper & lower limits (range)
• Show scenarios where no obvious value is
more likely to happen than the other

Data gathering &
Representation
Techniques
Discrete distribution
Discrete
Uniform
Binomial Hypergeometric Etc…
Show uncertain events such as outcome of decisions or
tests (Used in Decision Tree analysis)
They represent several possible outcomes
Each outcome is assigned a probability & each bar
represents an outcome
The sum of all these probabilities works out to 1 or 100%

Quantitative Risk
analysis &
Modeling
Techniques
Sensitivity analysis
(Tornado Diagram )
Expected monetary
value (EMV):
11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis->T&T->QRA&MT

Quantitative Risk
analysis &
Modeling
Techniques
Tornado Diagram (Sensitivity Analysis)
Determine impact of risk on just one of
project objectives, while assuming there
is no impact on rest of them.
Determine which risks have most potential impact to project. E.g., Risk1
Provide +ve & -ve impact of each risk & let you choose which risk to take.
Positive
Impact
Negative
Impact

Quantitative Risk
analysis &
Modeling
Techniques
Expected Monetary Value:
It calculates average outcomes when the
future includes scenarios that may or
may not happen.
It is used to convert the risk into a number
Assists PM calculate the contingency reserve
Helps compare a risk with other risks
It helps in selecting the choice which involves less
money to manage the risks. In general, it can be used to
select profitable business scenario or solution.

Quantitative Risk
analysis &
Modeling
Techniques
Below are 3 risks with Probabilities & Impact. What is the total
cost of managing these risks?
Risk Probability (P) Impact (I) EMV (P * I)
Hardware may cost more 10 % - 10,000 - 1,000
Licenses cost may increase 20 % - 6,000 - 1,200
Resource cost may reduce 90 % + 2,000 + 1,800
Total Cost of all Risks: = (-1000)+(-1200)+(1800) - 400
Expected Monetary Value:
= Probability X Impact

Quantitative Risk
analysis &
Modeling
Techniques
Expected monetary value:
Calculate amount based on percentage
Calculate the Net node value
Calculate value of each options by adding all chances
Select the better value as preferred option: EMV
For example, you have a risk and you
have identified two risk response
strategies to manage this risk.
How will you select the best strategy?

Quantitative Risk
analysis &
Modeling
Techniques
Decision Tree & EMV Example 2:
Decide weather to build new CAR manufacturing plant or
upgrade existing based on demand.
1 Cost of Building a new plant 120 M
2 Cost of Upgrading plant 50 M
Chance of Strong Demand: 60%
# Demand scenario Possible Profit
A New plant - Strong Demand 200 M
B New plant - Week Demand 90 M
C Upgrade – Strong Demand 120 M
D Upgrade – Week Demand 60 M
Note: In first example Project costs are not given.

Build /
Upgrade
New Plant
Strong Demand
Week Demand
Upgrade
plant
Strong Demand
Week Demand
Quantitative Risk
analysis &
Modeling
Techniques
60%
40%
Decision Tree example
60%
40%
Investment= 120M
Investment= 50M

Build /
Upgrade
New Plant
Strong Demand
Profit: 200M
Week Demand
Profit: 90M
Upgrade
plant
Strong Demand
Profit: 120M
Week Demand
Profit: 60M
Quantitative Risk
analysis &
Modeling
Techniques
60%
40%
60%
40%
Investment= 120M
Investment= 50M

Build /
Upgrade
New Plant
Strong Demand
Profit: 200M
Week Demand
Profit: 90M
Upgrade
plant
Strong Demand
Profit: 120M
Week Demand
Profit: 60M
Quantitative Risk
analysis &
Modeling
Techniques
60%
40%
60%
40%
Investment= 120M
Investment= 50M
Net path value
= -120+200 = 80M
Net path value
= -120+90 = -30M
Net path value
= -50+120 = 70M
Net path value
= -50+60 = 10M

Build /
Upgrade
New Plant
Strong Demand
Profit: 200M
Week Demand
Profit: 90M
Upgrade
plant
Strong Demand
Profit: 120M
Week Demand
Profit: 60M
Quantitative Risk
analysis &
Modeling
Techniques
60%
40%
60%
40%
Investment= 120M
Investment= 50M
Net path value
= -120+200 = 80M
Net path value
= -120+90 = -30M
Net path value
= -50+120 = 70M
Net path value
= -50+60 = 10M
EMV=0.60 ($80M)
+0.40(-$30) = $36M
EMV =0.60 ($70M)
+0.40($10) =$46M
Upgrade

Quantitative Risk
analysis &
Modeling
Techniques
Decision Tree Benefits
Simple to understand & interpret
Can be combined with other techniques
Can include EMV information

Quantitative Risk
analysis &
Modeling
Techniques
Modeling & simulation:
Uses model that translates specified detailed
uncertainties into their potential impact on
project objectives. Performed using Monte carlo
technique.
A project model is computed many times with input values chosen at random for each iteration.
12% chance - project will complete in 41 million 75% chance - project will complete in 50 million

Quantitative Risk
analysis &
Modeling
Techniques
Sensitivity analysis
• Impact of risk on just one project objectives
• Assume, there is no impact on rest of
objectives.
Expected monetary value (EMV):
• Identify scenario to deal with a risk
• Calculate how much each paths will cost.
Modeling & simulation:
• Developing a model that translates
uncertainties into potential impact on project
objectives. (E.g., Monte carlo technique)
Review

Project
Document
Update
11.4 Perform Quantitative RA->Outputs

Project
Document
Update
Probabilistic analysis of the Project
Probability of Achieving cost & time objectives
Prioritized list of Quantified Risks
Trends in Quantified Risks analysis results
11.4 Perform Quantitative RA->Output->Project Doc. updates

11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis- > Process Flow

Process of developing options & actions to enhance
opportunities & to reduce threats to project
objectives.
It addresses the risks by their priority by updating
budget, schedule & PMP as needed.
11.5 Plan Risk Responses -> Definition

Plan what to do about identified risks.
Document individual plans. Assign risk Owner.
Keep risk response appropriate
based on the importance &
significance of the risk.
Minimize
negative risks.
Enhance
positive risks.
Negative Risk
response
Avoid
Transfer
Mitigate
Accept
Positive Risk
response
Exploit
Enhance
Share
Accept
11.5 Plan Risk Responses -> Introduction

Inputs (2)
• Risk management
plan
• Risk register
Tools &
Techniques(4)
• Strategies for
negative risks or
threats
• Strategies for
positive risks or
opportunities
• Contingent response
strategies
• Expert judgment
Outputs (2)
• PMP update
• Project
document
updates
11.5 Plan Risk Responses->ITTO

Risk
Management
Plan
Risk Register
11.5 Plan Risk Responses->Inputs

Risk
Management
Plan
Defines projects Risk Management Roadmap
Proposed processes & Methods
Resource, Schedule & Budget requirements
Stakeholder - Roles & Responsibilities
Risk Categorization
11.5 Plan Risk Responses->Inputs-> RMP

Risk Register
All identified risks
Root causes
Potential Response
Risk Owners
Risk Categories
Risk Ratings
Risk with near-term response
Trends in qualitative Risk analysis
11.5 Plan Risk Responses->Inputs->Risk Register

Strategies for
Negative Risks or
Threats
Strategies for
Positive Risk or
Opportunities
Contingent
Response
Strategies
Expert Judgment
11.5 Plan Risk Responses->T&T

Strategies for
Negative Risks or
Threats
Mitigate Transfer Avoid Accept
Strategy to manage each Risk should be unique
It should match Risk’s probability & overall impact on
the project objectives
It helps to manage Negative impact on Project
Objectives:
11.5 Plan Risk Responses->T&T->Strategies for NR or Threats
To deal with High Risks To deal with low Risks

Strategies for
Negative Risks or
Threats
Mitigate
• Reduce impact or probability of risk to an
acceptable threshold
• Take early actions to reduce
impact/probability
Project Staging More testing Prototyping
Redundancy
planning
Use more qualified
resources
Examples:

Strategies for
Negative Risks or
Threats
Transfer
• Shift responsibility of risk consequence to
another party. Does NOT eliminate risk.
• Effective in dealing with financial exposure
Buy/subcontract: move liabilities
Selecting type of Procurement contracts: Fixed Price
Insurance: liabilities + bonds + Warranties

Strategies for
Negative Risks or
Threats
Avoid:
• Changing the plan to eliminate a risk by
avoiding the cause/source of risk
• Protect project from impact of risk
Change the implementation strategy
In-house development (no subcontracting)
Reduce scope to avoid high risk deliverables
Clarify requirement
Improve communication
Acquiring expertise
Examples:

Examples:
Strategies for
Negative Risks or
Threats
Accept:
• Risk is acknowledged, response is
planned
• No action taken unless Risk occurs
Commonly used - Contingency allowance/ reserve
Established amount of reserve (time, money)
Amount is decided based on probability & impact
Active Acceptance - Develop a contingency plan to
execute if the risk occur.
Passive Acceptance - Deal with the risks as they
occur (No Plan B prepared)

Strategies for
Positive Risk or
Opportunities
Exploit Enhance Share Accept
PM will seek ways to make positive risks or
opportunities more likely to occur:
11.5 Plan Risk Responses->T&T->Strategies for PR or Oppor.

Strategies for
Positive Risk or
Opportunities
Exploit:
• Ensure opportunity is realized.
• You do not try, but work hard & ensure
opportunity is 100% realized.
Example:
Using new technology may result
in saving 50% of the development
leading organization to complete
another initiative.
To exploit:
Staff will be trained on technology
& relevant technology expert will
be hired.

Strategies for
Positive Risk or
Opportunities
Enhance
• Increase chances of opportunity occurring.
• Take proactive action to enhance
opportunity.
Example:
Using new technology may result
in saving 50% of the development
leading organization to complete
another initiative.
To Enhance:
PM will monitor work closely,
Compress schedule by adding
resources & doing parallel work
etc.

Strategies for
Positive Risk or
Opportunities
Share:
• Not capable of realizing opportunity on your
own.
• Work with other parties to share Benefits
Example:
Lack of technical capability is
not allowing you to bid for a
contract, and you want to
realize this opportunity.
To Enhance:
You will team up with other
company expert in technology
to apply for contract.

Strategies for
Positive Risk or
Opportunities
Accept
• Willing to take advantage of opportunity if it
comes, but not actively pursuing it.

Contingent
Response
Strategies
Reponses plans to the Risk occurrence.
Plan that deals with
events that may or
may not occur.
This is Risk response
plan.
Contingency plans
Plan that gets
Implemented when
the contingency plan
fails or is not fully
effective.
Fall back plans:
11.5 Plan Risk Responses->T&T->Contingent Response Strat.

Contingent
Response
Strategies
Contingency plans:
• Plan that deals with events that may
or may not occur.
Construction project Risk:
There is a risk that rain may
fall, which will damage your
materials lying in the open.
Plan:
If there is an indication of
rain, all materials will be
covered with a plastic sheet.
Also, after rain, you will bring
a blower/vacuum pump to
clean & dry wet materials.

Contingent
Response
Strategies
Fallback plan:
• Plan that gets Implemented when the
contingency plan fails or is not fully
effective.
Construction project Risk:
There is a risk that rain may
fall, which will damage your
materials lying in the open.
Suppose rain continued for a
long time than anticipated,
leading material to be useless.
Plan B:
If material is useless, you will
reorder them from a pre-
identified supplier & start the
work immediately.

Contingent
Response
Strategies
Risk triggers:
• These are indications that a risk has occurred
or is about to occur.
• Also, called as warning signs or risk symptoms
• Engage your Legal team to monitor
the status of this regulation. Inform
PM is change happens.
Risk: Change in
government
regulation
• Establish monitoring mechanism for
CPU & disk usage. Inform PM if limit
is reached.
Risk: Server
capacity is
insufficient to meet
peak demand
Events that trigger the response should be documented & tracked.

Contingent
Response
Strategies
Assigned the
responsibility of
ensuring that risk
response is effective.
Also, he may Plan
additional risk
response if required
Risk Owner
Risk owner depute a
risk action owner in
very large project
where it will be
difficult for risk
owner to manage all
risk on its own.
Risk Action Owner

Expert Judgment
Input from knowledgeable parties
Expertise can be provided by individual or groups
Based on specialized education, knowledge, skills,
experience or training
11.5 Plan Risk Responses->T&T->Expert Judgement

11.5 Plan Risk Responses->Outputs
PMP update
Project
Documents
Updates

Following Plans may get updated:
Schedule Management Plan
Cost Management Plan
Quality Management Plan
Procurement Management Plan
HR management Plan
Scope Baseline
Schedule Baseline
Cost Baseline
PMP update
11.5 Plan Risk Responses->Outputs->PMP update

Project
Documents
Updates
Risk Register
Assumptions log
updates
Technical
Documentation Updates
Change Requests
Project document
Updates
Risk
Register
Updates:
Risk Owner &
responsibiliti
es
Agreed
Response
strategy
Budge &
schedule
activities
Trigger
conditions
Residual Risks
Secondary
Risks
Contingency
plans &
Triggers
Contingency
reserves
11.5 Plan Risk Responses->Outputs->Proj. doc. updates

11.5 Plan Risk Responses-> Process Flow

Definition
Controlling Risk
Control Risk: ITTO
Summary
Guidelines for exam questions
Learning Objectives – 11.6 Control Risk

Implementing risk response plans, tracking identified risks,
monitoring residual risks, identifying new risks, & evaluating
risk process effectiveness throughout the project.
It improves efficiency of risk approach & continuously
optimize risk responses.
Risk Response Plans
Tracking identified
risks
Monitoring residual
risks
Identifying new risks
Implementing
11.6 Control Risks -> Definition

Identify Analyze
Plan Monitor
Key Activities
Triggers Residuals Risk
Secondary Risks
Risk
Effectiveness
Other activities
- Monitoring
11.6 Control Risks -> Introduction

Perform Variance & Trend analysis using performance
information
This process is not about managing or responding to
risks. So, do nothing about the Risk.
Determine
If project assumptions are still valid
If assessed risk has changed or can be retired
If Risk management plan is followed
Alignment of contingency reserves
Choose alternative strategies
(workarounds)
Execute contingency or fallback
plan
Update PMP, OPA (Lesson
learned)
11.6 Control Risks -> Introduction

Inputs (4)
• Risk Management
Plan
• Risk register
• Work
Performance Data
• Work
Performance
Reports
Tools &
Techniques(6)
• Risk Reassessment
• Risk Audits
• Variance & Trend
Analysis
• Technical
Performance
Measurement
• Reserve Analysis
• Meetings
Outputs (5)
• Work
Performance
Information
• Change
Requests
• PMP updates
• Project
Documents
Updates
• OPA updates
11.6 Control Risks->ITTO

Risk
Management
Plan
Risk Register
Work
Performance data
Work
Performance
reports
11.6 Control Risks->Inputs

Risk
Re-assessment Risk Audits
Variance & Trend
Analysis
Technical
Performance
Measurement Reserve Analysis Meetings
11.6 Control Risks->T&T

Risk
Re-assessment
Review Risk Register
Add, Re-assess or close Risks
Identify new
Risks
Register
Risks
Re-assess
current Risks
Close Risks
11.6 Control Risks->T&T->Risk Re-assessment & Audit

Risk Audits
Examine & Document the effectiveness of Risk
Response
Ensure effectiveness of risk management process
Focus is on Risk response & overall Risk Management
11.6 Control Risks->T&T->Risk Re-assessment & Audit

Review project execution trends using performance
information
Trend analysis (e.g., EVM) used for monitoring
overall performance
Analyzed outcome may forecast potential deviation
Performance
Data
Baseline
Variance & Trend
Analysis
11.6 Control Risks->T&T->Variance & Trend Analysis

Reserve Analysis
11.6 Control Risks->T&T-> Reserve Analysis
Planned
Reserves
Actual used
reserves

Technical
Performance
Measurement
Compare technical accomplishments of project milestones to
technical milestones as per the project plan. (Trend analysis using
run charts)
To use this technique, we must have quantifiable objectives that
can be measured on a technical level.
If deviations are identified, they are documented & Risk
Management team could suggest corrective actions.
11.6 Control Risks->T&T->Technical Perf. Measurement
Q1 Q2 Q3
Design
Build - Prototype
Prototype Demo to
Client
Project
Milestone
Technical
Milestone
Technical
Milestone

Work
Performance
Information
Change
Requests
PMP Updates
Project
Documents
Updates
OPA Updates
11.6 Control Risks->Outputs

Work
Performance
Information
Provide mechanism to communicate &
support project decision making.
11.6 Control Risks->Outputs-> WPI

11.6 Control Risks->Outputs->CR
Change
Requests
Implementing contingency plan or
workarounds sometime results in CR.
• Recommended Corrective actions
• Recommended preventive actions

Project
Documents
Updates
Update Risk Register:
Risk assessment
Risk audit
Periodic risk reviews
Risk Response
11.6 Control Risks->Outputs->PDU

OPA Updates
Template for Risk Management plan
RBS
Risk Categories
Lesson Learned
11.6 Control Risks->Outputs->OPA

11.6 Control Risks-> Miscellaneous
Unplanned response (workaround):
• It is a response to a threat that has occurred, for
which a prior response had not been planned or was
not effective.

11.6 Control Risks-> Process Flow

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