Comment on the geopolitical scenario after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. New scenarios that can open up for Russia and China

1. Andrea Mennillo
The USA and Afghanistan: a change of leadership or a change of strategy?
Article
23rd
September, 2021
www.andreamennillo.org

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The climax of the dramatic events that took place in recent weeks in Afghanistan has deeply
shaken public opinion and created strong concerns within the international community. The
news and images coming from the Afghan territory and, in particular, from Kabul, the capital
quickly reconquered by the Taliban, deeply saddened me, with a deja-vu of scenarios
unfortunately experienced already in the past, of violence, fear and mass exodus.
The future of millions of Afghans is now uncertain, but especially for women, who in all
likelihood will watch any hope for the emancipation won with so much sacrifice and
determination in the last 20 years fade away. Nothing foreshadowed such an epilogue,
specifically, that just three months from the withdrawal of Western forces, in particular, as
the leader, the USA, the Taliban would regain the land wrested from their control, thereby
nullifying the effects of the military and humanitarian efforts in the area in a flash.
This operation is causing a change in the global geopolitical order, which could destabilize
the Middle East and cause important economic-political and humanitarian repercussions in
Europe and the USA also. At this point, one wonders for what reason Biden decided to
authorize the withdrawal of American troops from Afghan territory, and why right now,
triggering the escalation of events which sadly we all know. Several hypotheses are possible.
Is this a sign of weakness or a US abdication from its international leadership as some are
claiming? Probably not at all.
From the White House, in a speech to the nation, Biden declared that he did not want to
repeat the mistakes of the past, formally attributing the reasons for his operation to a very
onerous military commitment for American taxpayers, both in economic and financial terms
as well as human lives lost in a civil war that was not its own, which seemed to never end.
However, it is reasonable to think that the US move is part of a broader strategy, which is
worth questioning.
I have already stressed several times how the historic international leadership of the USA
today is threatened by newly emerging powers, above all China, which, unlike the Americans,
"at least formally" seems not to privilege military campaigns, but to favor strategic diplomacy
to make the most of the economic return. One method of action that China will certainly
also use with Afghanistan serves the countless interests linked to the New Silk Road, which
could bring great benefits, from opening new trade borders with the countries of Central Asia
to improving relations with Russia and Iran. Additionally, China would get access to new
mineral resources, such as gold, precious stones, copper, uranium, lithium etc. (with an
estimated value of potentially 3 trillion dollars) essential for its own economy, and also for
the Taliban, which would see huge gains stemming from mining and related commercial
activities.
What is certain is that the American military occupation had represented, also for Russia, a
guarantee of stability in that region of the Middle East adjacent to other small states

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considered potentially unstable, which line the southern border of the former Soviet empire,
still considered by the Russians within its own sphere of influence. China and Russia, at this
juncture, potentially have a lot to gain but they must get it while confronting a highly unstable
counterpart, whose Islamic fundamentalism worries both superpowers. The exit from the
Middle Eastern team of the USA and NATO, in this articulated geopolitical rearrangement,
leaves "an open door", behind which, however, there might be many pitfalls.
Andrea Mennillo
Founder and Managing Director, International Development Advisory
Chairman Fordham University London Centre Advisory Board