The Myth of the Hockey Stick, or How Growth Actually Works - Turing Festival 2017

Andy Young // @andyy // andyyoung.co
The myth of the
Hockey Stick
or, how Growth *actually* works
Andy Young
@andyy

Hi, I’m Andy!
@andyy
#fb
PhotobyDanTaylor-dan@heisenbergmedia.com

So what is this about
“Growth” anyways?

What do we mean by Growth?

● Typically growing our active customer/user base
● Growing whatever drives value in our business

● Not necessarily growing revenue $$$

● Not necessarily growing revenue $$$
● Growing whatever’s most strategically important to
us right now

Growth Hacking?

Let’s talk about something REAL

Growth Hacking..? Technical Marketing..?
Call it what you want, teams at high-growth companies
are scaling to millions of users without major use of
traditional mass advertising/marketing techniques.

The myth of the
Hockey Stick
a.k.a. what growth actually looks like..

What people think
hockey-stick growth
looks like..

What people think
hockey-stick growth
looks like..
..what it actually looks like

https://insomanic.me.uk/selective-tweets-3-years-zero-marketing-and-nearly-1m-users-later-now-open-source-851a011f6d5c
Selective Tweets - 1.3 million users
3 years

Selective Tweets
1.3 million users
3 years

http://www.david.blog/blog/the-importance-of-launching-early-and-staying-alive

Which
startup
is this?

https://blog.rjmetrics.com/2012/04/27/airbnb-data-analysis-6-million-users-by-year-end-only-20-active/

http://blog.airdna.co/2015-in-review-airbnb-data-for-the-usa/

Engineering-driven Growth
AirBnB built on top of Craigslist

http://leananalyticsbook.com/analytics-lessons-learned-free-e-book-with-13-case-studies/

Product-driven
Growth
Dropbox succeeded with
a Referral Scheme

Common Theme

Companies are achieving scale in new ways:
● Modern, data-driven online marketing channels
● Growth channels embedded within the product
Common Theme

Companies are achieving scale in new ways:
● Modern, data-driven online marketing channels
● Growth channels embedded within the product
“The best startups grow super fast not because
of traditional marketing or online marketing, but
because they tune the product to drive growth”
- Casey Winters, Pinterest/Greylock
Common Theme

Growth
via the intersection of
Product, Marketing & Engineering

● SEO
● Content Marketing
● Performance Marketing (Paid search & display, retargeting)
● Conversion Optimisation (CRO) & A/B Testing
● User testing & UX
● Viral Loops
● Strategic Pricing
● …
The Growth Toolbox

What Growth is NOT

What Growth is NOT
There are loads of great tips and hacks out there
Subscribe to 500’s “DISTROSNACK” newsletter!
But following all these cool tips will not itself bring
success.

Things with big impact:
● ACQUISITION at top of funnel
○ How to reach HUGE new audiences in a cost-effective way
● CONVERSION at middle of funnel
○ Attracting and drawing people deeper into engaging with you
● REVENUE at bottom of funnel
○ Close to the $$$ - convert higher % and simply make more money!
Things that WILL make a difference

Understand how we grow
so we can
grow more!
Ensure our growth is sustainable
Growth Goals

Growth Marketing is finding growth that is:
● Measurable
● Predictable
● Repeatable & Scalable
Growth is a mindset, and a process.
Growth Truths

How can we grow?

ACQUIRING new customers
vs.
RETAINING existing customers
Ways to grow..

Retention is a SILENT KILLER!
Brian Balfour, Reforge.com

Most important: Retention Flattens

When your retention curve flattens..

Ways to grow
Sustainably:
Growth
Loops & Engines

Paid Engine of Growth
Pay to acquire
new users Monetise those
users
Reinvest profit into acquiring
the next set of users

Viral Engine of Growth
Acquire new users
(initially via
seeding)
Each new user
invites N friends
% of invites convert
to new users

Sticky Engine of Growth
Acquire new users
(any channel)
Users stick
around
Acquisition >> churn
so we grow

http://www.startuplessonslearned.com/2008/09/three-drivers-of-growth-for-your.html
https://www.slideshare.net/Leananalytics/lean-analytics-for-intrapreneurs-lean-startup-conference-dec-2013-public-share

User-Generated Content Growth Loop
New people
discover content
via Google
Users sign up
and create new
content
Content is indexed by Google

B2B Content Growth Loop
New people discover
content via
search & social
Users sign up
and/or follow
Profit is invested in
new content creation
Distributed to existing
followers, who amplify to
new users Brian Balfour, Reforge.com

● Over time, you’ll typically make use of
multiple growth loops - powered by different engines
● But you’ll typically always have
one loop that dominates your growth
Which engine(s) work for you?

● Is your engine of growth coherent?
● Beware attempts to force a user to take
unnatural behaviours
Watch out for
FAILURE!

The Myth of the Hockey Stick, or How Growth Actually Works - Turing Festival 2017

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