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Agile Estimation
Zeist, 10 juni 2013
Sid B. Dane
2By Sid B. Dane | Copyright © Capgemini 2012. All Rights Reserved
Agile Estimation | june 2013
Contents
Cone of Uncertainty
Yesterday’s Weather
Principles of Agile Estimation
Lean Software Development
Reaching Consensus
References
Contact information
3By Sid B. Dane | Copyright © Capgemini 2012. All Rights Reserved
Agile Estimation | june 2013
Cone of Uncertainty
Lessgood
Better
4By Sid B. Dane | Copyright © Capgemini 2012. All Rights Reserved
Agile Estimation | june 2013
Yesterday’s weather
Principles of Agile Estimation
6By Sid B. Dane | Copyright © Capgemini 2012. All Rights Reserved
Agile Estimation | june 2013
7By Sid B. Dane | Copyright © Capgemini 2012. All Rights Reserved
Agile Estimation | june 2013
8By Sid B. Dane | Copyright © Capgemini 2012. All Rights Reserved
Agile Estimation | june 2013
9By Sid B. Dane | Copyright © Capgemini 2012. All Rights Reserved
Agile Estimation | june 2013
10By Sid B. Dane | Copyright © Capgemini 2012. All Rights Reserved
Agile Estimation | june 2013
11By Sid B. Dane | Copyright © Capgemini 2012. All Rights Reserved
Agile Estimation | june 2013
12By Sid B. Dane | Copyright © Capgemini 2012. All Rights Reserved
Agile Estimation | june 2013
13By Sid B. Dane | Copyright © Capgemini 2012. All Rights Reserved
Agile Estimation | june 2013
14By Sid B. Dane | Copyright © Capgemini 2012. All Rights Reserved
Agile Estimation | june 2013
15By Sid B. Dane | Copyright © Capgemini 2012. All Rights Reserved
Agile Estimation | june 2013
Lean Software Development
17By Sid B. Dane | Copyright © Capgemini 2012. All Rights Reserved
Agile Estimation | june 2013
Origin
Lean software
development is a translation
of lean
manufacturing and lean
IT principles and practices to
the software development
domain. Adapted from
the Toyota Production
System, a pro-lean subculture
is emerging from within
the Agile community. Bron: Wikipedia
18By Sid B. Dane | Copyright © Capgemini 2012. All Rights Reserved
Agile Estimation | june 2013
Lean Software Dev: 7 principles and 22 tools
 Eliminate Waste
 Seeing Waste, Value Stream Mapping
 Amplify Learning
 Feedback, Iterations, Synchronization,
Set-Based Development
 Decide as Late as Possible
 Options Thinking, The Last
Responsible Moment, Making
Decisions
 Deliver as Fast as Possible
 Pull Systems, Queuing Theory, Cost of
Delay
 Empower the Team
 Self-Determination, Motivation,
Leadership, Expertise
 Build Integrity In
 Perceived Integrity, Conceptual
Integrity, Refactoring, Testing
 See the Whole
 Measurements, Contracts
"Think big, act small, fail fast; learn
rapidly“ --- Mary and Tom Poppendieck
Reaching consensus
21By Sid B. Dane | Copyright © Capgemini 2012. All Rights Reserved
Agile Estimation | june 2013
Five requirements of consensus decision-making
 Inclusion. As many community members as possible should be involved in the
process. Nobody should be excluded or left out (unless they ask to be
excluded).
 Participation. Not only is every person included, but each and every person is
also expected to participate by contributing opinions and suggestions. While
there are various roles that others may have, each person has an equal share
(and stake) in the final decision.
 Co-operation. All the people involved collaborate and build upon each other's
concerns and suggestions to come up with a decision or solution that will satisfy
everyone in the group, rather than just the majority (while the minority is
ignored).
 Egalitarianism. Nobody's input is weighed more or less than anyone else's.
Each has equal opportunity to amend, veto, or block ideas.
 Solution-mindedness. An effective decision-making body works towards a
common solution, despite differences. This comes through collaboratively
shaping a proposal until it meets as many of the participants' concerns as
possible.
22By Sid B. Dane | Copyright © Capgemini 2012. All Rights Reserved
Agile Estimation | june 2013
I.N.V.E.S.T. in your Stories
Independent
Negotiable
Valuable
Estimable
Small enough
Testable
23By Sid B. Dane | Copyright © Capgemini 2012. All Rights Reserved
Agile Estimation | june 2013
So many stories, so little time…
“Don’t spend too much time on estimating.
The goal of the estimates is to gain a
general understanding of the cost of the
system or product. This is used to
determine whether it is economic to
develop it. Be aware of diminishing returns.
Do enough, but not too much.”
24By Sid B. Dane | Copyright © Capgemini 2012. All Rights Reserved
Agile Estimation | june 2013
Timebox per story estimate
An egg timer can be used to
ensure that discussion is
structured; the Moderator
may at any point turn over
the egg timer and when it
runs out all discussion must
cease and another round of
poker is played. The
structure in the conversation
is re-introduced by the soap
boxes.
25By Sid B. Dane | Copyright © Capgemini 2012. All Rights Reserved
Agile Estimation | june 2013
Different opinions: average or max?
What happens to the sprint if…
• The 5’s got it and it turned out to be an 8?
• The 8’s got it and it turned out to be a 5?
26By Sid B. Dane | Copyright © Capgemini 2012. All Rights Reserved
Agile Estimation | june 2013
Questions?
Questions?
27By Sid B. Dane | Copyright © Capgemini 2012. All Rights Reserved
Agile Estimation | june 2013
References
Dr. Christoph Steindl (IBM): Estimation in Agile projects
Ken Schwaber: Scrum Methodology
Mike Cohn: Agile Estimation and Planning
Gunther Verheijen: Scrum Kickstart
Wikipedia:
 Planning Poker
 Lean Software Development
WikiHow: How to Reach a Consensus
Mary and Tom Poppendieck: Lean Software Development
Sid B. Dane: Optimization has no Business Value
28By Sid B. Dane | Copyright © Capgemini 2012. All Rights Reserved
Agile Estimation | june 2013
Contact information
• Capgemini Nederland B.V.
Reykjavikplein 1
3543 KA Utrecht
• Sid B. Dane
sid.dane@capgemini.com
@SidOnAgile
http://nl.linkedin.com/in/siddane/
The information contained in this presentation is proprietary.
© 2012 Capgemini. All rights reserved.
www.capgemini.com
About Capgemini
With more than 120,000 people in 40 countries, Capgemini is one
of the world's foremost providers of consulting, technology and
outsourcing services. The Group reported 2011 global revenues
of EUR 9.7 billion.
Together with its clients, Capgemini creates and delivers
business and technology solutions that fit their needs and drive
the results they want. A deeply multicultural organization,
Capgemini has developed its own way of working, the
Collaborative Business ExperienceTM
, and draws on Rightshore ®
,
its worldwide delivery model.
Rightshore®
is a trademark belonging to Capgemini

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Agile Estimation

  • 1. Agile Estimation Zeist, 10 juni 2013 Sid B. Dane
  • 2. 2By Sid B. Dane | Copyright © Capgemini 2012. All Rights Reserved Agile Estimation | june 2013 Contents Cone of Uncertainty Yesterday’s Weather Principles of Agile Estimation Lean Software Development Reaching Consensus References Contact information
  • 3. 3By Sid B. Dane | Copyright © Capgemini 2012. All Rights Reserved Agile Estimation | june 2013 Cone of Uncertainty Lessgood Better
  • 4. 4By Sid B. Dane | Copyright © Capgemini 2012. All Rights Reserved Agile Estimation | june 2013 Yesterday’s weather
  • 5. Principles of Agile Estimation
  • 6. 6By Sid B. Dane | Copyright © Capgemini 2012. All Rights Reserved Agile Estimation | june 2013
  • 7. 7By Sid B. Dane | Copyright © Capgemini 2012. All Rights Reserved Agile Estimation | june 2013
  • 8. 8By Sid B. Dane | Copyright © Capgemini 2012. All Rights Reserved Agile Estimation | june 2013
  • 9. 9By Sid B. Dane | Copyright © Capgemini 2012. All Rights Reserved Agile Estimation | june 2013
  • 10. 10By Sid B. Dane | Copyright © Capgemini 2012. All Rights Reserved Agile Estimation | june 2013
  • 11. 11By Sid B. Dane | Copyright © Capgemini 2012. All Rights Reserved Agile Estimation | june 2013
  • 12. 12By Sid B. Dane | Copyright © Capgemini 2012. All Rights Reserved Agile Estimation | june 2013
  • 13. 13By Sid B. Dane | Copyright © Capgemini 2012. All Rights Reserved Agile Estimation | june 2013
  • 14. 14By Sid B. Dane | Copyright © Capgemini 2012. All Rights Reserved Agile Estimation | june 2013
  • 15. 15By Sid B. Dane | Copyright © Capgemini 2012. All Rights Reserved Agile Estimation | june 2013
  • 17. 17By Sid B. Dane | Copyright © Capgemini 2012. All Rights Reserved Agile Estimation | june 2013 Origin Lean software development is a translation of lean manufacturing and lean IT principles and practices to the software development domain. Adapted from the Toyota Production System, a pro-lean subculture is emerging from within the Agile community. Bron: Wikipedia
  • 18. 18By Sid B. Dane | Copyright © Capgemini 2012. All Rights Reserved Agile Estimation | june 2013 Lean Software Dev: 7 principles and 22 tools  Eliminate Waste  Seeing Waste, Value Stream Mapping  Amplify Learning  Feedback, Iterations, Synchronization, Set-Based Development  Decide as Late as Possible  Options Thinking, The Last Responsible Moment, Making Decisions  Deliver as Fast as Possible  Pull Systems, Queuing Theory, Cost of Delay  Empower the Team  Self-Determination, Motivation, Leadership, Expertise  Build Integrity In  Perceived Integrity, Conceptual Integrity, Refactoring, Testing  See the Whole  Measurements, Contracts "Think big, act small, fail fast; learn rapidly“ --- Mary and Tom Poppendieck
  • 20.
  • 21. 21By Sid B. Dane | Copyright © Capgemini 2012. All Rights Reserved Agile Estimation | june 2013 Five requirements of consensus decision-making  Inclusion. As many community members as possible should be involved in the process. Nobody should be excluded or left out (unless they ask to be excluded).  Participation. Not only is every person included, but each and every person is also expected to participate by contributing opinions and suggestions. While there are various roles that others may have, each person has an equal share (and stake) in the final decision.  Co-operation. All the people involved collaborate and build upon each other's concerns and suggestions to come up with a decision or solution that will satisfy everyone in the group, rather than just the majority (while the minority is ignored).  Egalitarianism. Nobody's input is weighed more or less than anyone else's. Each has equal opportunity to amend, veto, or block ideas.  Solution-mindedness. An effective decision-making body works towards a common solution, despite differences. This comes through collaboratively shaping a proposal until it meets as many of the participants' concerns as possible.
  • 22. 22By Sid B. Dane | Copyright © Capgemini 2012. All Rights Reserved Agile Estimation | june 2013 I.N.V.E.S.T. in your Stories Independent Negotiable Valuable Estimable Small enough Testable
  • 23. 23By Sid B. Dane | Copyright © Capgemini 2012. All Rights Reserved Agile Estimation | june 2013 So many stories, so little time… “Don’t spend too much time on estimating. The goal of the estimates is to gain a general understanding of the cost of the system or product. This is used to determine whether it is economic to develop it. Be aware of diminishing returns. Do enough, but not too much.”
  • 24. 24By Sid B. Dane | Copyright © Capgemini 2012. All Rights Reserved Agile Estimation | june 2013 Timebox per story estimate An egg timer can be used to ensure that discussion is structured; the Moderator may at any point turn over the egg timer and when it runs out all discussion must cease and another round of poker is played. The structure in the conversation is re-introduced by the soap boxes.
  • 25. 25By Sid B. Dane | Copyright © Capgemini 2012. All Rights Reserved Agile Estimation | june 2013 Different opinions: average or max? What happens to the sprint if… • The 5’s got it and it turned out to be an 8? • The 8’s got it and it turned out to be a 5?
  • 26. 26By Sid B. Dane | Copyright © Capgemini 2012. All Rights Reserved Agile Estimation | june 2013 Questions? Questions?
  • 27. 27By Sid B. Dane | Copyright © Capgemini 2012. All Rights Reserved Agile Estimation | june 2013 References Dr. Christoph Steindl (IBM): Estimation in Agile projects Ken Schwaber: Scrum Methodology Mike Cohn: Agile Estimation and Planning Gunther Verheijen: Scrum Kickstart Wikipedia:  Planning Poker  Lean Software Development WikiHow: How to Reach a Consensus Mary and Tom Poppendieck: Lean Software Development Sid B. Dane: Optimization has no Business Value
  • 28. 28By Sid B. Dane | Copyright © Capgemini 2012. All Rights Reserved Agile Estimation | june 2013 Contact information • Capgemini Nederland B.V. Reykjavikplein 1 3543 KA Utrecht • Sid B. Dane sid.dane@capgemini.com @SidOnAgile http://nl.linkedin.com/in/siddane/
  • 29. The information contained in this presentation is proprietary. © 2012 Capgemini. All rights reserved. www.capgemini.com About Capgemini With more than 120,000 people in 40 countries, Capgemini is one of the world's foremost providers of consulting, technology and outsourcing services. The Group reported 2011 global revenues of EUR 9.7 billion. Together with its clients, Capgemini creates and delivers business and technology solutions that fit their needs and drive the results they want. A deeply multicultural organization, Capgemini has developed its own way of working, the Collaborative Business ExperienceTM , and draws on Rightshore ® , its worldwide delivery model. Rightshore® is a trademark belonging to Capgemini

Editor's Notes

  1. Say you’ll do as much today (in the next iteration) as you actually got done yesterday (in the last iteration). 􀂃 Emergent properties of this rule: – We won’t habitually overestimate our abilities. We have to use actual accomplishment. If we overestimate once, we won’t be able to the next time. – If we are overcommitted, we will tend to try to finish some items in any given time period instead of half finishing them all. It is so embarrassing to tell the customer they can have zero features next time. – On the other hand, if we have a disastrous period, we are guaranteed a little breathing space to recover. – Everyone learns to trust our numbers because they are so easy to explain. – Our estimates automatically track all kinds of changes – changes to the team, new technology, dramatic changes in product direction, etc. 􀂃 The first estimate (at the beginning of the project, when there is no yesterday) is the hardest and least accurate. Fortunately you only have to do it once.
  2. Eliminate waste : Everything not adding value to the customer is considered to be waste ( muda ). Amplify learning : Software development is a continuous learning process Decide as late as possible : As software development is always associated with some uncertainty, better results should be achieved with an options-based approach, delaying decisions as much as possible until they can be made based on facts and not on uncertain assumptions and predictions. Deliver as fast as possible : In the era of rapid technology evolution, it is not the biggest that survives, but the fastest. The sooner the end product is delivered without major defects, the sooner feedback can be received, and incorporated into the next iteration. Empower the team : There has been a traditional belief in most businesses about the decision-making in the organization – the managers tell the workers how to do their own job. In a Work-Outtechnique, the roles are turned – the managers are taught how to listen to the developers, so they can explain better what actions might be taken, as well as provide suggestions for improvements. Build integrity in : The customer needs to have an overall experience of the System – this is the so-called perceived integrity: how it is being advertised, delivered, deployed, accessed, how intuitive its use is, price and how well it solves problems. See the whole : Software systems nowadays are not simply the sum of their parts, but also the product of their interactions. Defects in software tend to accumulate during the development process – by decomposing the big tasks into smaller tasks, and by standardizing different stages of development, the root causes of defects should be found and eliminated.