1. DAX-DAILY
Postives:
Market is making higher high and higher low formation.
DAX is holding above its 200 DMA.
Negatives:
Volume spike occurred during downtrend.
If a market repeatedly tests its 200 DMA within a short span of 1 year it does raise
questions about the strength of the trend.
Momentum oscillators are well into negative zone for the index…
2. CAC- DAILY
The chart structure is worse than DAX, a clear sign of topping having completed and
breakdown occurred on very high volume. Retest and resumption of downtrend occurred
last week.
FTSE: DAILY
Similar story like DAX…
3. NASDAQ: DAILY
Though the structure of Nasdaq remains bullish but a very high volume decline followed
by a low volume bounce last week has raised the first red flag. Nasdaq needs to hold the
trend line support for the bull structure to remain intact.
DOW
Trendline needs to hold…
4. HANGSENG:DAILY
Topping action evident in HANGSENG and the tipping point remains 19,000…
NIKKEI:DAILY
Volume spike during a decline but still holding above key levels…
5. AUSTRALIAN STOCK INDEX: DAILY
Holding key level but topping action evident…
NIFTY: DAILY
Nifty continues to trade in a rising channel, however the following observations to be
noted:
Since the bull market began in 2009, nifty has never paid much respect to any
resistance level. But it is only last week that we saw the immediate resistance level of
5200 held so formidably. Inspite of 3 attempts of incursion into the zone, heavy
volume sell-off took the market down.
Three sectors that were instrumental in taking the market higher over the past year viz.,
IT, Bank and Auto are showing strain on their respective charts.
7. BSE AUTO INDEX
CONCLUSION:
Global equity market rally is for the first time raising quite a few red
flags. Though markets of Hong Kong, China and Europe look weak
but US and India are yet to confirm that. However, this can be said
that the global equity markets have entered a “TOPPING OUT
PARADE” phase, where two possibilities emerge for the next 3
months.
(1) US and India both the markets breakdown.
(2) A final move higher lead by US and India occur over May- July,
where some markets register new highs and others either fail at
their old highs or just make a lower high… Therefore, it can be
concluded that the equity bull market of last 14 months has entered
the final phase…
@ Anindya Banerjee : anindya1979@gmail.com