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CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES
FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
IN AGRICULTURE
DR MUHAMMAD ANJUM ALI
MEMBER PLANT SCIENCES DIVISION
PARC ISLAMABAD PAKISTAN
OVERVIEW OF AGRICULTURE
Source: Statistical Supplement of Pakistan Economic Survey 2016-17
Labor force
Employed
42.3%
Contribution
to GDP
19.5%
Provides
Livelihood
to rural
Population
59.5%
Average
growth rate
in last 5 years
2.2%
Share of
Agriculture
in total exports
57.5%
2
Sectorial Share in Agri.GDP
2016-17
Contribution of Different Sectors in
GDP (%) 2016-17
Source: Statistical Supplement of Pakistan Economic Survey 2016-17
Agriculture
19.5%
Industrial,
20.9%
Services
59.6%
Agriculture sector Industrial sector
Services sector
Livestock
58%
Crops
40%
Fishing
1%
Forestry
1%
Livestock Crops Fishing Forestry
OVERVIEW OF AGRICULTURE
3
Note: GDP and Agri GDP Growth Rates at Constant Factor Cost
Source: Pakistan Economic Surveys
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2010-17
Growth%
Years
GDP Agriculture
HISTORICAL GROWTH
TREND 1960-2017
2016-17 Agri. GDP Growth Rate 3.4%
4
Source: FAO STATS & WTO Pakistan (USDA 2016)
PAKISTAN’S POSITION
IN THE WORLD
 Population – 6th Most populated in the world (207 million now, 230 & 260
million by 2030 & 2050, respectively; shall be 5th largest
country by 2050)
 Cotton – 4th Position in the world;
 Sugarcane – 5th Position in the world;
 Wheat – 9th Position in the world (14.1% value added)
 Rice – 12th Position in the world (4.4% value added) used to have
edge/comparative advantage for Basmati rice
 Maize – 14th Position in the world;
 Livestock – 2nd in buffalo; 13th in cattle; 9th sheep; 3rd in goat
 Milk – 5th Position in the world;
 Fruits – Comparative advantage in mango, citrus and dates
5
Source: Economic Wing M/o NFS&R
Crops Production Demand Surplus/Deficits
Wheat 25.75 25.1 0.65*
Rice 6.85 3.0 3.85
Maize 6.13 5.0 1.13
Sugar 5.6 5.1 0.5
Potato 3.8 3.5 0.3
Pulses 0.63 0.89 -0.26
Edible Oil 0.462 2.772 -2.310
Citrus 2.34 1.92 0.42
Mango 1.78 1.6 0.18
CROP PRODUCTION
2016-17
Million Tons
6
(4 MT carry over stock*) (3.85 MT export)**
CHALLENGES
Yield Gap, Low pace of technology adoption,
Horizontal expansion especially in Thal, Cholistan,
Riverine and Pothohar , Climatic change, Transition
towards high value crops, Provision and efficient
use of quality inputs, Rehabilitation of degraded
resources, Regional competitiveness, Obsolete/
unfair market mechanism, Surplus/shortage
syndrome, Increasing production costs, Shrinking
agriculture land
• Hard working farmers
• Fertile land
• Suitable climate for year round cropping
• Strong R&D system
• Largest canal irrigation network with good quality
aquifer
• Proximity to international market
OPPORTUNITIES
8
10
SEED TECHNOLOGY, (Hybrid, Drought, Submergence, Nutrition,
Genomics, CRISPR, N Efficient, Biotic Resistance, C3 to C4, Super
Plants), INFORMATION & COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY
Internet, Computer, Android, Whattsapp, Training Aid, F/B,
TRANSFER OF TECHONOLGY, MECHANIZATION, Scale Specific
Machines, Flying Machines, FERTLIZER (Micronutrients, Hormones,
Enzymes, Nano technologies, Solubility's etc) IRRIGATION Salt
Water, Waste Water, HEIS, Rainwater, Laser, B&F,
DIVERSIFICATION, INTENSIFICATION, PLANTING SYSTEMS
(Density, C/System. Types) , VALUE ADDITION (Farm to Hightech),
MARKET CONNECTVITY, (PP System, Cluster, Corporate, Contract,
Cooperative), CLIMATE/WEATHER (Remote Sensing, LAWS/
REGULATIONS, INTERNATIONAL COMPLIANCES
LATEST
DEVELOPMENTS
Achieving Agriculture Growth at 4% Per Annum,
Increase Horticultural Exports By 5% Every Year, Make
Agriculture Profitable, Luring Maximum Investment in
Agriculture, Import Substitution/Supporting Pulses &
Oilseed Production, Development of Hybrid Seed
Industry, Controlling trans-boundary Pest & Diseases,
Incentive for Halal Food Industry, Agri Business
opportunities at CPEC, Processing/Value Addition at
Farm Level to reduce Postharvest Losses, Development
of Agriculture Service Providers, Dissemination of
Technology for Waste Water Reuse, Harvesting of Un-
tapped Potential of Rain Water & Hill Torrents
FUTURE VISION
Thank You
1 Livestock, Dairy products
2 Fish Farming/Feed
3 Cereals & Products
4 Vegetables, Fresh & Processed
5 Poultry/Feed
6 Fruits Fresh, Dried & Processed
7 Sugar, Gur & Molasses
8 Cut Flower Production
9 Spices
10 Animal Feed & Fodder
11 Tobacco Industry
12 Animal Skin Processing
13 Seeds Production
14 Pulses
15 Cotton Processing
16 Wool Cleaning & Processing
17 Plants, Nurseries,& Products
18 Veg.oil, Essential oils etc
19 Olive Production/Processing
20 Honey
CBC
DMC
SIC
NIC
SBC
PC
TC
WMC
HMC
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)
Agricultural Commodities
in Different Agro-Ecologies
1. Northern Dry Mountains High Mountain Corridor (HMC)
2. Wet Mountains Wet Mountain Corridor (WMC)
3. Barani Lands Potowar Corridor (PC)
4. Sandy Desert Thal Corridor (TC)
5. Northern Irrigated Plain. Northern Irrigated Corridor (NIC)
6. Southern Irrigated Plain Southern Irrigated Corridor (SIC)
7. Sulaiman Piedmont Sulaiman Belt Corridor (SBC)
8. Western Dry Mountains Dry Mountain Corridor (DMC)
9. Dry Western Plateau (Coastal Belt Corridor) CBC
10.Indus Delta
1,2,4,6,12,17,20
1,2,4,5, 6,8,17,19,20
1,2,4,5, 6,8,17,19,20
1,3,4,5,6,7,10,11,
12,13,14,15,17,18
1,3,6,9,10,16,17,19,20
1,3,10,14
1,2,3,4,6,7,8,10,13,15,17
1,3,4,6,10,17
1,4,6,9,10,13,16
13

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CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE

  • 1. CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN AGRICULTURE DR MUHAMMAD ANJUM ALI MEMBER PLANT SCIENCES DIVISION PARC ISLAMABAD PAKISTAN
  • 2. OVERVIEW OF AGRICULTURE Source: Statistical Supplement of Pakistan Economic Survey 2016-17 Labor force Employed 42.3% Contribution to GDP 19.5% Provides Livelihood to rural Population 59.5% Average growth rate in last 5 years 2.2% Share of Agriculture in total exports 57.5% 2
  • 3. Sectorial Share in Agri.GDP 2016-17 Contribution of Different Sectors in GDP (%) 2016-17 Source: Statistical Supplement of Pakistan Economic Survey 2016-17 Agriculture 19.5% Industrial, 20.9% Services 59.6% Agriculture sector Industrial sector Services sector Livestock 58% Crops 40% Fishing 1% Forestry 1% Livestock Crops Fishing Forestry OVERVIEW OF AGRICULTURE 3
  • 4. Note: GDP and Agri GDP Growth Rates at Constant Factor Cost Source: Pakistan Economic Surveys 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2010-17 Growth% Years GDP Agriculture HISTORICAL GROWTH TREND 1960-2017 2016-17 Agri. GDP Growth Rate 3.4% 4
  • 5. Source: FAO STATS & WTO Pakistan (USDA 2016) PAKISTAN’S POSITION IN THE WORLD  Population – 6th Most populated in the world (207 million now, 230 & 260 million by 2030 & 2050, respectively; shall be 5th largest country by 2050)  Cotton – 4th Position in the world;  Sugarcane – 5th Position in the world;  Wheat – 9th Position in the world (14.1% value added)  Rice – 12th Position in the world (4.4% value added) used to have edge/comparative advantage for Basmati rice  Maize – 14th Position in the world;  Livestock – 2nd in buffalo; 13th in cattle; 9th sheep; 3rd in goat  Milk – 5th Position in the world;  Fruits – Comparative advantage in mango, citrus and dates 5
  • 6. Source: Economic Wing M/o NFS&R Crops Production Demand Surplus/Deficits Wheat 25.75 25.1 0.65* Rice 6.85 3.0 3.85 Maize 6.13 5.0 1.13 Sugar 5.6 5.1 0.5 Potato 3.8 3.5 0.3 Pulses 0.63 0.89 -0.26 Edible Oil 0.462 2.772 -2.310 Citrus 2.34 1.92 0.42 Mango 1.78 1.6 0.18 CROP PRODUCTION 2016-17 Million Tons 6 (4 MT carry over stock*) (3.85 MT export)**
  • 7. CHALLENGES Yield Gap, Low pace of technology adoption, Horizontal expansion especially in Thal, Cholistan, Riverine and Pothohar , Climatic change, Transition towards high value crops, Provision and efficient use of quality inputs, Rehabilitation of degraded resources, Regional competitiveness, Obsolete/ unfair market mechanism, Surplus/shortage syndrome, Increasing production costs, Shrinking agriculture land
  • 8. • Hard working farmers • Fertile land • Suitable climate for year round cropping • Strong R&D system • Largest canal irrigation network with good quality aquifer • Proximity to international market OPPORTUNITIES 8
  • 9. 10 SEED TECHNOLOGY, (Hybrid, Drought, Submergence, Nutrition, Genomics, CRISPR, N Efficient, Biotic Resistance, C3 to C4, Super Plants), INFORMATION & COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY Internet, Computer, Android, Whattsapp, Training Aid, F/B, TRANSFER OF TECHONOLGY, MECHANIZATION, Scale Specific Machines, Flying Machines, FERTLIZER (Micronutrients, Hormones, Enzymes, Nano technologies, Solubility's etc) IRRIGATION Salt Water, Waste Water, HEIS, Rainwater, Laser, B&F, DIVERSIFICATION, INTENSIFICATION, PLANTING SYSTEMS (Density, C/System. Types) , VALUE ADDITION (Farm to Hightech), MARKET CONNECTVITY, (PP System, Cluster, Corporate, Contract, Cooperative), CLIMATE/WEATHER (Remote Sensing, LAWS/ REGULATIONS, INTERNATIONAL COMPLIANCES LATEST DEVELOPMENTS
  • 10. Achieving Agriculture Growth at 4% Per Annum, Increase Horticultural Exports By 5% Every Year, Make Agriculture Profitable, Luring Maximum Investment in Agriculture, Import Substitution/Supporting Pulses & Oilseed Production, Development of Hybrid Seed Industry, Controlling trans-boundary Pest & Diseases, Incentive for Halal Food Industry, Agri Business opportunities at CPEC, Processing/Value Addition at Farm Level to reduce Postharvest Losses, Development of Agriculture Service Providers, Dissemination of Technology for Waste Water Reuse, Harvesting of Un- tapped Potential of Rain Water & Hill Torrents FUTURE VISION
  • 12. 1 Livestock, Dairy products 2 Fish Farming/Feed 3 Cereals & Products 4 Vegetables, Fresh & Processed 5 Poultry/Feed 6 Fruits Fresh, Dried & Processed 7 Sugar, Gur & Molasses 8 Cut Flower Production 9 Spices 10 Animal Feed & Fodder 11 Tobacco Industry 12 Animal Skin Processing 13 Seeds Production 14 Pulses 15 Cotton Processing 16 Wool Cleaning & Processing 17 Plants, Nurseries,& Products 18 Veg.oil, Essential oils etc 19 Olive Production/Processing 20 Honey CBC DMC SIC NIC SBC PC TC WMC HMC China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) Agricultural Commodities in Different Agro-Ecologies 1. Northern Dry Mountains High Mountain Corridor (HMC) 2. Wet Mountains Wet Mountain Corridor (WMC) 3. Barani Lands Potowar Corridor (PC) 4. Sandy Desert Thal Corridor (TC) 5. Northern Irrigated Plain. Northern Irrigated Corridor (NIC) 6. Southern Irrigated Plain Southern Irrigated Corridor (SIC) 7. Sulaiman Piedmont Sulaiman Belt Corridor (SBC) 8. Western Dry Mountains Dry Mountain Corridor (DMC) 9. Dry Western Plateau (Coastal Belt Corridor) CBC 10.Indus Delta 1,2,4,6,12,17,20 1,2,4,5, 6,8,17,19,20 1,2,4,5, 6,8,17,19,20 1,3,4,5,6,7,10,11, 12,13,14,15,17,18 1,3,6,9,10,16,17,19,20 1,3,10,14 1,2,3,4,6,7,8,10,13,15,17 1,3,4,6,10,17 1,4,6,9,10,13,16 13