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IPv6 Deployment
Geoff Huston AM
Chief Scientist
APNIC Labs
Some Questions
• Where is IPv6 Deployment activity?
• Where is IPv6 widely deployed today?
• Where are the most active areas of IPv6 growth?
• Have the disruptions of COVID-19 impacted the momentum of IPv6
deployment?
The Big Picture(s)
2019
2020
IPv6 - January 2019
Nothing! All Done!!
IPv6 - January 2020
Nothing! All Done!!
IPv6– January 2021
Nothing! All Done!!
Let’s Focus on Asia…
South East Asia
Vietnam
2019
2020
Myanmar
2019
2020
Thailand
2019
2020
Malaysia
2019
2020
Philippines
2019
2020
Western Asia / Middle East
Saudi Arabia
2019
2020
United Arab Emirates
2019
2020
Israel
2019
2020
South Asia
India
2019
2020
Sri Lanka
2019
2020
Nepal
2019
2020
East Asia
Taiwan
2019
2020
Japan
2019
2020
China
2019
2020
South Korea
2019
2020
Oceania
Australia
2019
2020
New Zealand
2019
2020
Observations
• Global growth of IPv6 is much slower overall in 2020 as compared to
2019
• 2019: 6% growth in users (18% to 24%)
• 2020: 3% growth in users (24% to 27%)
• But, IPv6 growth has not slowed down in 2020 for many Asian
economies
• Lets now look at some tables…
Greatest 24-Month Deployment Growth
• This is the change in the relative IPv6
capability for each economy from the
start of 2019 to the start of 2021
• It’s the change in % of users within
each economy who have IPv6
comparing the start of 2019 to the
start of 2021
1 YT 62.9 Mayotte
2 GF 42.2 French Guiana
3 LK 29.5 Sri Lanka
4 AE 29.0 United Arab Emirates
5 PR 28.6 Puerto Rico
6 MQ 24.5 Martinique
7 GP 24.0 Guadeloupe
8 PT 23.7 Portugal
9 FR 22.6 France
10 RE 21.3 Reunion
11 CH 20.8 Switzerland
12 MY 20.5 Malaysia
13 SA 20.0 Saudi Arabia
14 TW 19.4 Taiwan
15 IN 19.0 India
16 MM 18.8 Myanmar
17 NL 18.4 Netherlands
18 VN 17.9 Vietnam
19 GA 17.2 Gabon
20 GR 17.1 Greece
21 LU 16.3 Luxembourg
22 MX 16.0 Mexico
23 TH 15.9 Thailand
24 AU 15.3 Australia
25 HU 14.8 Hungary
% IPv6 Growth over the past 24
months
1 IN 72.8 India
2 YT 62.9 Mayotte
3 BE 62.9 Belgium
4 BL 58.1 Saint Barthelemy
5 MY 55.0 Malaysia
6 US 52.8 United States of America
7 TW 50.7 Taiwan
8 GR 50.5 Greece
9 DE 50.4 Germany
10 CH 46.7 Switzerland
11 VN 45.7 Vietnam
12 JP 44.3 Japan
13 FR 43.8 France
14 LU 42.7 Luxembourg
15 GF 42.2 French Guiana
16 LK 41.7 Sri Lanka
17 PR 41.0 Puerto Rico
18 TH 40.0 Thailand
19 PT 39.6 Portugal
20 MX 38.8 Mexico
1 BL 83.3 Saint Barthelemy
2 IN 53.8 India
3 BE 52.4 Belgium
4 US 47.4 United States of America
5 EU 38.8 European Union
6 DE 37.7 Germany
7 MY 34.5 Malaysia
8 GR 33.4 Greece
9 TW 31.3 Taiwan
10 JP 29.8 Japan
11 BR 28.9 Brazil
12 GB 28.4 United Kingdom
13 UY 28.2 Uruguay
14 VN 27.8 Vietnam
15 FI 27.2 Finland
16 LU 26.4 Luxembourg
17 CH 25.9 Switzerland
18 TH 24.1 Thailand
19 CA 23.6 Canada
20 MX 22.8 Mexico
V6 deployment
January 2019
1 YT 66.6 Mayotte
2 IN 63.7 India
3 BE 60.4 Belgium
4 US 55.8 United States of America
5 MY 47.4 Malaysia
6 DE 47.3 Germany
7 GR 47.2 Greece
8 TW 43.9 Taiwan
9 MF 41.9 Saint Martin (FR)
10 VN 41.0 Vietnam
11 BL 40.5 Saint Barthelemy
12 CH 40.3 Switzerland
13 FR 38.3 France
14 JP 36.5 Japan
15 LU 36.2 Luxembourg
16 FI 34.8 Finland
17 UY 34.6 Uruguay
18 GB 34.0 United Kingdom
19 GF 32.8 French Guiana
20 PT 32.4 Portugal
V6 deployment
January 2020
V6 deployment
January 2021
24-month User Growth
• Percentages only tell part of the story
• We can convert percentages to estimates of
IPv6 users per economy
• Over the past 24 months some 470M users
were connected with IPv6
• The bulk of this IPv6 user growth is in India
and China, with a further 380M IPv6 users
1 IN 161,568,317 India
2 CN 118,082,098 China
3 MX 21,193,448 Mexico
4 BR 17,745,200 Brazil
5 JP 15,836,329 Japan
6 FR 11,557,854 France
7 TH 10,430,694 Thailand
8 VN 10,146,466 Vietnam
9 PH 9,159,114 Philippines
10 RU 8,357,617 Russian Federation
11 DE 8,276,402 Germany
12 MY 7,528,603 Malaysia
13 SA 7,437,879 Saudi Arabia
14 TW 7,038,298 Taiwan
15 GB 6,755,156 United Kingdom
16 MM 3,944,296 Myanmar
17 CO 3,827,137 Colombia
18 AU 3,535,571 Australia
19 CA 3,161,705 Canada
20 NL 3,042,160 Netherlands
21 AE 2,860,177 United Arab Emirates
22 LK 2,580,194 Sri Lanka
23 AR 2,569,302 Argentina
24 CH 2,069,825 Switzerland
25 PT 2,065,010 Portugal
User Growth – 2019 compared to 2020
2019
1 IN 116,325,484 India
2 CN 86,940,479 China
3 MX 15,327,609 Mexico
4 BR 11,675,636 Brazil
5 FR 8,639,833 France
6 VN 7,886,964 Vietnam
7 JP 6,871,182 Japan
8 TH 6,194,110 Thailand
9 DE 6,054,944 Germany
10 RU 6,031,053 Russian Federation
11 MY 5,527,902 Malaysia
12 TW 5,468,095 Taiwan
13 EG 4,598,096 Egypt
14 GB 4,535,566 United Kingdom
15 KR 3,702,037 Republic of Korea
16 AU 2,983,059 Australia
17 AE 2,555,954 United Arab Emirates
18 CA 2,301,239 Canada
19 SA 2,248,138 Saudi Arabia
20 MM 2,218,934 Myanmar
332,426,386 TOTAL
2020
1 IN 45,242,832 India
2 CN 31,141,618 China
3 JP 8,965,146 Japan
4 PH 7,025,651 Philippines
5 BR 6,069,563 Brazil
6 MX 5,865,839 Mexico
7 SA 5,189,741 Saudi Arabia
8 TH 4,236,583 Thailand
9 CO 3,364,356 Colombia
10 FR 2,918,021 France
11 RU 2,326,564 Russian Federation
12 VN 2,259,501 Vietnam
13 DE 2,221,458 Germany
14 GB 2,219,589 United Kingdom
15 MY 2,000,701 Malaysia
16 EC 1,805,800 Ecuador
17 MM 1,725,361 Myanmar
18 TW 1,570,202 Taiwan
19 AR 1,527,311 Argentina
20 LK 1,282,057 Sri Lanka
137,997,495 TOTAL
Annual IPv6 User Growth 2020
Annual IPv6 User Growth 2019
COVID-19 Impact?
• The number of IPv6-enabled users added in 2020 is half that of 2019
• 332M added in 2019 and 132M added in 2020
• Most regions and economies saw a similar decline in IPv6 growth in
user numbers
• What does a monthly view of 2020 show?
2020 Monthly view of Growth of
IPv6 Users
This figure shows the month-by-month
growth in IPv6 users – mid-year saw a
pause in IPv6 growth for the global
Internet which is likely to be related to
national COVID-19 lockdowns
For the 5 largest per-economy IPv6 user
counts for 2020:
• India had a major deployment in March
through May and November
• China resumed IPv6 deployment in
August and September
• Brazil appears to have moved in
November
Back to that Bigger Picture…
2019
2020
The Overall Objective
• Is not a common Dual Stack Internet
IPv6 Use
IPv4 Use
Dual Stack
The Overall Objective
• Is not a common Dual Stack Internet
• It’s a common IPv6-only Internet
IPv6 Use
IPv4 Use
Dual Stack
The Overall Objective
• Is not a common Dual Stack Internet
• It’s a common IPv6-only Internet
IPv6 Use
IPv4 Use
Dual Stack
You are here
Technology Adoption in
Inflexion Points
Market
Adoption
Time
Early Adopters /
Risk Takers
Enthusiasts
Failure
Mainstream
Laggards / Skeptics
Inflexion Point
The Big Question
• If there is an inflexion point in IPv6 adoption, then has it already
occurred in 2018 (or earlier)?
Mainstream
Failure
The Big Question
• If there is an inflexion point in IPv6 adoption, then has it already
occurred in 2018 (or earlier)?
• Or are we (still) yet to reach this inflexion point?
Mainstream
Failure
The Big Question
• If there is an inflexion point in IPv6 adoption, then has it already
occurred in 2018 (or earlier)?
• Or are we (still) yet to reach this inflexion point?
• Its unlikely that this is a tension between IPv4 and IPv6 any longer –
that’s pretty much a done deal
• I suspect that the emerging tension in alternative networking futures lies
between destination-based packet forwarding network architectures and
name-based architectures that use ephemeral associations with network-
level addressing
Thanks!

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2nd ICANN APAC-TWNIC Engagement Forum: IPv6 Deployment

  • 1. IPv6 Deployment Geoff Huston AM Chief Scientist APNIC Labs
  • 2. Some Questions • Where is IPv6 Deployment activity? • Where is IPv6 widely deployed today? • Where are the most active areas of IPv6 growth? • Have the disruptions of COVID-19 impacted the momentum of IPv6 deployment?
  • 4. IPv6 - January 2019 Nothing! All Done!!
  • 5. IPv6 - January 2020 Nothing! All Done!!
  • 14. Western Asia / Middle East
  • 30. Observations • Global growth of IPv6 is much slower overall in 2020 as compared to 2019 • 2019: 6% growth in users (18% to 24%) • 2020: 3% growth in users (24% to 27%) • But, IPv6 growth has not slowed down in 2020 for many Asian economies • Lets now look at some tables…
  • 31. Greatest 24-Month Deployment Growth • This is the change in the relative IPv6 capability for each economy from the start of 2019 to the start of 2021 • It’s the change in % of users within each economy who have IPv6 comparing the start of 2019 to the start of 2021 1 YT 62.9 Mayotte 2 GF 42.2 French Guiana 3 LK 29.5 Sri Lanka 4 AE 29.0 United Arab Emirates 5 PR 28.6 Puerto Rico 6 MQ 24.5 Martinique 7 GP 24.0 Guadeloupe 8 PT 23.7 Portugal 9 FR 22.6 France 10 RE 21.3 Reunion 11 CH 20.8 Switzerland 12 MY 20.5 Malaysia 13 SA 20.0 Saudi Arabia 14 TW 19.4 Taiwan 15 IN 19.0 India 16 MM 18.8 Myanmar 17 NL 18.4 Netherlands 18 VN 17.9 Vietnam 19 GA 17.2 Gabon 20 GR 17.1 Greece 21 LU 16.3 Luxembourg 22 MX 16.0 Mexico 23 TH 15.9 Thailand 24 AU 15.3 Australia 25 HU 14.8 Hungary
  • 32. % IPv6 Growth over the past 24 months 1 IN 72.8 India 2 YT 62.9 Mayotte 3 BE 62.9 Belgium 4 BL 58.1 Saint Barthelemy 5 MY 55.0 Malaysia 6 US 52.8 United States of America 7 TW 50.7 Taiwan 8 GR 50.5 Greece 9 DE 50.4 Germany 10 CH 46.7 Switzerland 11 VN 45.7 Vietnam 12 JP 44.3 Japan 13 FR 43.8 France 14 LU 42.7 Luxembourg 15 GF 42.2 French Guiana 16 LK 41.7 Sri Lanka 17 PR 41.0 Puerto Rico 18 TH 40.0 Thailand 19 PT 39.6 Portugal 20 MX 38.8 Mexico 1 BL 83.3 Saint Barthelemy 2 IN 53.8 India 3 BE 52.4 Belgium 4 US 47.4 United States of America 5 EU 38.8 European Union 6 DE 37.7 Germany 7 MY 34.5 Malaysia 8 GR 33.4 Greece 9 TW 31.3 Taiwan 10 JP 29.8 Japan 11 BR 28.9 Brazil 12 GB 28.4 United Kingdom 13 UY 28.2 Uruguay 14 VN 27.8 Vietnam 15 FI 27.2 Finland 16 LU 26.4 Luxembourg 17 CH 25.9 Switzerland 18 TH 24.1 Thailand 19 CA 23.6 Canada 20 MX 22.8 Mexico V6 deployment January 2019 1 YT 66.6 Mayotte 2 IN 63.7 India 3 BE 60.4 Belgium 4 US 55.8 United States of America 5 MY 47.4 Malaysia 6 DE 47.3 Germany 7 GR 47.2 Greece 8 TW 43.9 Taiwan 9 MF 41.9 Saint Martin (FR) 10 VN 41.0 Vietnam 11 BL 40.5 Saint Barthelemy 12 CH 40.3 Switzerland 13 FR 38.3 France 14 JP 36.5 Japan 15 LU 36.2 Luxembourg 16 FI 34.8 Finland 17 UY 34.6 Uruguay 18 GB 34.0 United Kingdom 19 GF 32.8 French Guiana 20 PT 32.4 Portugal V6 deployment January 2020 V6 deployment January 2021
  • 33. 24-month User Growth • Percentages only tell part of the story • We can convert percentages to estimates of IPv6 users per economy • Over the past 24 months some 470M users were connected with IPv6 • The bulk of this IPv6 user growth is in India and China, with a further 380M IPv6 users 1 IN 161,568,317 India 2 CN 118,082,098 China 3 MX 21,193,448 Mexico 4 BR 17,745,200 Brazil 5 JP 15,836,329 Japan 6 FR 11,557,854 France 7 TH 10,430,694 Thailand 8 VN 10,146,466 Vietnam 9 PH 9,159,114 Philippines 10 RU 8,357,617 Russian Federation 11 DE 8,276,402 Germany 12 MY 7,528,603 Malaysia 13 SA 7,437,879 Saudi Arabia 14 TW 7,038,298 Taiwan 15 GB 6,755,156 United Kingdom 16 MM 3,944,296 Myanmar 17 CO 3,827,137 Colombia 18 AU 3,535,571 Australia 19 CA 3,161,705 Canada 20 NL 3,042,160 Netherlands 21 AE 2,860,177 United Arab Emirates 22 LK 2,580,194 Sri Lanka 23 AR 2,569,302 Argentina 24 CH 2,069,825 Switzerland 25 PT 2,065,010 Portugal
  • 34. User Growth – 2019 compared to 2020 2019 1 IN 116,325,484 India 2 CN 86,940,479 China 3 MX 15,327,609 Mexico 4 BR 11,675,636 Brazil 5 FR 8,639,833 France 6 VN 7,886,964 Vietnam 7 JP 6,871,182 Japan 8 TH 6,194,110 Thailand 9 DE 6,054,944 Germany 10 RU 6,031,053 Russian Federation 11 MY 5,527,902 Malaysia 12 TW 5,468,095 Taiwan 13 EG 4,598,096 Egypt 14 GB 4,535,566 United Kingdom 15 KR 3,702,037 Republic of Korea 16 AU 2,983,059 Australia 17 AE 2,555,954 United Arab Emirates 18 CA 2,301,239 Canada 19 SA 2,248,138 Saudi Arabia 20 MM 2,218,934 Myanmar 332,426,386 TOTAL 2020 1 IN 45,242,832 India 2 CN 31,141,618 China 3 JP 8,965,146 Japan 4 PH 7,025,651 Philippines 5 BR 6,069,563 Brazil 6 MX 5,865,839 Mexico 7 SA 5,189,741 Saudi Arabia 8 TH 4,236,583 Thailand 9 CO 3,364,356 Colombia 10 FR 2,918,021 France 11 RU 2,326,564 Russian Federation 12 VN 2,259,501 Vietnam 13 DE 2,221,458 Germany 14 GB 2,219,589 United Kingdom 15 MY 2,000,701 Malaysia 16 EC 1,805,800 Ecuador 17 MM 1,725,361 Myanmar 18 TW 1,570,202 Taiwan 19 AR 1,527,311 Argentina 20 LK 1,282,057 Sri Lanka 137,997,495 TOTAL Annual IPv6 User Growth 2020 Annual IPv6 User Growth 2019
  • 35. COVID-19 Impact? • The number of IPv6-enabled users added in 2020 is half that of 2019 • 332M added in 2019 and 132M added in 2020 • Most regions and economies saw a similar decline in IPv6 growth in user numbers • What does a monthly view of 2020 show?
  • 36. 2020 Monthly view of Growth of IPv6 Users This figure shows the month-by-month growth in IPv6 users – mid-year saw a pause in IPv6 growth for the global Internet which is likely to be related to national COVID-19 lockdowns For the 5 largest per-economy IPv6 user counts for 2020: • India had a major deployment in March through May and November • China resumed IPv6 deployment in August and September • Brazil appears to have moved in November
  • 37. Back to that Bigger Picture… 2019 2020
  • 38. The Overall Objective • Is not a common Dual Stack Internet IPv6 Use IPv4 Use Dual Stack
  • 39. The Overall Objective • Is not a common Dual Stack Internet • It’s a common IPv6-only Internet IPv6 Use IPv4 Use Dual Stack
  • 40. The Overall Objective • Is not a common Dual Stack Internet • It’s a common IPv6-only Internet IPv6 Use IPv4 Use Dual Stack You are here
  • 41. Technology Adoption in Inflexion Points Market Adoption Time Early Adopters / Risk Takers Enthusiasts Failure Mainstream Laggards / Skeptics Inflexion Point
  • 42. The Big Question • If there is an inflexion point in IPv6 adoption, then has it already occurred in 2018 (or earlier)? Mainstream Failure
  • 43. The Big Question • If there is an inflexion point in IPv6 adoption, then has it already occurred in 2018 (or earlier)? • Or are we (still) yet to reach this inflexion point? Mainstream Failure
  • 44. The Big Question • If there is an inflexion point in IPv6 adoption, then has it already occurred in 2018 (or earlier)? • Or are we (still) yet to reach this inflexion point? • Its unlikely that this is a tension between IPv4 and IPv6 any longer – that’s pretty much a done deal • I suspect that the emerging tension in alternative networking futures lies between destination-based packet forwarding network architectures and name-based architectures that use ephemeral associations with network- level addressing