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Will there be a hard phone?


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Will there be a hard phone panel at VoN Fall 2007

Published in: Economy & Finance, Technology
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Will there be a hard phone?

  1. 1. Evolution of a ‘Hard phone’ in the Mobile World Arjun Roychowdhury Director, Converged Apps & IMS Hughes Systique Corp
  2. 2. Evolution of the ‘Mobile Phone’ Motorola DynaTAC 8000X. 2 lbs, 1hr talk, 30 numbers. $3995 1972 1982 Nokia Mobira. 21 pounds. 1993 Simon personal computer. IBM + BSouth. Phone, pager, fax,email. $900. 20 lbs. 1996 Morotola StarTAC. 3.1 lbs. fashion is cool. 1998-2000 Nokia 6160,8260. Form and functionality 2001 Handspring Treo. PDA. QWERTY keys. 16MB memory. 2002 Blackberry. Revolutionized mobile email. Form factor. 2002 Sanyo 5300. First Camera Phone. 640x480 2003 Nokia N-Gage. Gaming, graphics etc. 2004 Motorola Razr iPhone 2007 Source of model evolution: <ul><li>Key learnings: </li></ul><ul><li>Network needs to support features </li></ul><ul><li>Users will use well thought out features not related to voice </li></ul><ul><li>Form-factor is critical </li></ul><ul><li>Price to feature ratio is important </li></ul><ul><li>Simplicity and Cohesive Relevance always has a market </li></ul>
  3. 3. Will there be a ‘hard-phone’? <ul><li>Simple Answer: Sure. Absolutely. </li></ul><ul><li>Mobility implies ease of carrying </li></ul><ul><ul><li>You can’t expect people to pop open their laptops each time </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Won’t laptops get smaller ? Sure. Absolutely </li></ul><ul><li>So isn’t the day near when laptop == phone == TV in form-factor ? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>I don’t think so. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>How often do you browse the web in your office using an iphone while next to a laptop ? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>How often do you send emails using your blackberry if you have a desk pc? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>How often do you really watch full length movies on a phone ? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Acceptance and usability of a product is closely tied to the environment for usage. </li></ul><ul><li>Simplicity always has a market. </li></ul><ul><li>Better Question: Will form-factors change enough for a phone to be more than a phone, yet pocketable ? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Sure. Absolutely. It’s already here – iPhone and likes have made voice an attribute of a ‘multimedia service’ </li></ul></ul>
  4. 4. Real Question: How will a hard-phone evolve?
  5. 5. Evolution in Development Paradigm <ul><li>The Old Way </li></ul><ul><ul><li>API based programming, proprietary </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Focus on memory issues, battery life </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Build separate apps for desktop and for mobile </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Languages: Java, Native(C/C++) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>The iPhone (and future phones) way </li></ul><ul><ul><li>100% web standards programming – JS, AJAX, CSS(2&3) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Browser is the OS – ZERO focus on memory, battery etc. by developer </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Most of the app is common across desktop and mobile </li></ul></ul>
  6. 6. Evolution in Development Paradigm CSS: Defines ‘UI’ User writes a standard ‘Web App’ JavaScript: Defines control logic HTML: Ties CSS+JS into one form 1 2 App is hosted on the web like usual, 3 iphone user accesses this app like any other web app HOW? Safari Browser is the ‘Application Engine’ MacOS is the platform AJAX is used for interactivity IPhone maps HTML user input classes to sensor events IPhone Maps CSS to IPhone GUI elements for uniformity IPhone exposes web-kit toolkit for more control for developer Safari renders the app just like it would on a desktop with a 320x480 viewport WLAN or EDGE How to new apps interact with iPhone installed apps ? Local app interaction is using Web URLs (REST) tel:3015271629 in HTML tag means launch phone app and dial launches iphone map application and searches for 20850
  7. 7. Evolution in user interactivity <ul><li>The Old Way </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Fixed buttons </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Small screens </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Low end graphics </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Phone, SMS </li></ul></ul><ul><li>The New Way </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Dynamic buttons </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Multi-touch sensors </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Larger screens </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Deep pixel density – amazing picture sharpness </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>MoD, VoD, TV, PVR, blogging, social networking </li></ul></ul>
  8. 8. Evolution in Revenue Streams <ul><li>Will users pay $5 more for a ‘social networking app’ on their phone ? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Absolutely Not. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>But if your ‘phone+network’ is convenient enough to: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Eliminate a TiVo fee per month by using NPVR? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Provide IPTV to your home TV + phone when you are on travel ? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Use WLAN or GPRS/EDGE/3G with call handover where applicable ? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Have high speed internet access with Flash player and other real-time streaming support? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Would you then stop paying $40 for phone, $60 for cable, $30 for internet and just pay $90 to your mobile operator ? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>User pays less by $30 a month </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Feature provider gains additional $70 ARPU </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Phone form-factor and features enable network provider to offer more services </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Network vs. Phone – revenue share is a business model. iPhone+AT&T is a classic example of variations. </li></ul></ul>
  9. 9. Thank You Arjun Roychowdhury Director, Converged Apps & IMS Hughes Systique Corp