This document discusses communication technologies of the past and present and makes predictions about the future of communication in 2023. It examines key technologies from 1983 to the present, including the Apple Lisa, pagers, the iPod, and smartphones. It also discusses theories like critical mass theory, Moore's innovation adoption curve, and media system dependency theory to help predict how communication may evolve. The document predicts that by 2023, dependency on digital files and screens rather than paper will continue to increase as technologies change with the times.

1. Communication in 2023
Ashley Elgin

2. What will the communication
technology landscape look like in
2023 A.D.?

3. Before we look to the future of technology,
we must examine the past.
1983: Apple Lisa
The first commercial computer with a graphical user interface (GUI) — the advance that
would finally make computers usable by people with no special training. The name was
the acronym for “Local Integrated Software Architecture” and possibly the daughter of
someone on the development team (Steve Jobs). The computer was $10,000 and only
sold 10,000 of them.
1993: Polaroid, Powerbook and pagers
JVC Video Camcorder, Apple PowerBook 160, Polaroid OneStep, Sony Sports Walkman
cassette player and a pager.
2003: The iTunes Music Store was launched.
At the time, “For every 99 cents Apple gets from your credit card, 65 cents goes straight
to the music label. Another quarter or so gets eaten up by distribution costs. At most,
Jobs is left with a dime per track, so even $500 million in annual sales would add up to a
paltry $50 million profit. Why even bother? "Because we're selling iPods," Jobs says,
grinning.”

4. Present: 2013
• Phones
– iPhone 5
– Samsung Galaxy
• Computers
– Windows 8
– Apple
• Tablets
– iPad
– Kindle
– Nook

5. Phones
“There are 4 billion cell phones in use today. Many of
them are in the hands of market vendors, rickshaw
drivers, and others who've historically lacked access to
education and opportunity. Information networks have
become a great leveler and we should use them
together to help lift people out of poverty and give
them a freedom from want.” –Hillary Clinton
Telegraph Rotary Phone iPhone
Cordless Phone

6. Computers
"The desktop computer industry is dead. Innovation
has virtually ceased. Microsoft dominates with very
little innovation. That's over. Apple lost. The desktop
market has entered the dark ages and it's going to be
in the dark ages for the next 10 years, or certainly for
the rest of this decade.” –Steve Jobs
Apple Lisa Macintosh Powerbook Macbook Pro

7. Tablets
“What I didn't foresee in 2005 was the rise of
the post-PC, which are all these tablets now.
These are the things that actually will
probably be the end of the consoles.” – John
Romero
First “tablet” Notebook Etch a sketch iPad

8. Critical Mass Theory
Through the “network effect” the value and utility of a
good or service increases the more users it has,
similar to the “snowball effect.”
This is true with almost all technology. If someone
looks around and sees the Samsung Galaxy or an
iPhone everywhere they are going to want it.
The object has to be easy for the masses obtain and
get more popular with time.

9. Moore’s Innovation Adoption Rate
• There are innovators, early adapters, early majority,
late majority, and then lastly the laggards.
• Innovators are venturesome, daring and risky,
laggards like traditional things and what has been.
The early adapters, early majority and late majority
are in between the two.
• Millennialls easily fit into the innovator role, where
an older person might not be open to the process.

10. Media System Dependency Theory
• Attempts to describe how the media affects the lives
of individuals.
• As an example, a person got their news from the TV,
then they became accustomed to their computer
and finally, he or she likes to find information out via
phone.
• Media System Dependency Theory is that need for
receiving information through a certain medium.

11. • In the future the biggest change in
dependency will be the adjustment from
hard copies to digital files.
– 10 years from now newspapers might not be
on paper, but could transfer over to e-books.
The owner of Amazon buying The Washington
Post personally is proof of this. Technology
mediums will make it as long as they are
willing to change as the times do.

12. Works Cited
• Critical mass (sociodynamics) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. (n.d.). Retrieved August 8,
2013, from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Critical_mass_%28sociodynamics%29
• Crossing the Chasm - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. (n.d.). Retrieved August 5, 2013, from
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crossing_the_Chasm
• Feature. (n.d.). Retrieved July 30, 2013, from http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/4.02/jobs.html
• Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon, to buy Washington Post - The Washington Post. (n.d.).
Retrieved August 3, 2013, from http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/jeff-bezos-founder-of-
amazon-to-buy-washington-post/2013/08/05/0e9bf196-fe2c-11e2-9711-3708310f6f4d_gallery.html
• Macintosh - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. (n.d.). Retrieved August 8, 2013, from
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macintosh
• next gen consoles | My Nintendo News. (n.d.). Retrieved July 28, 2013, from
http://mynintendonews.com/tag/next-gen-consoles/
• Remarks on Internet Freedom. (n.d.). Retrieved August 1, 2013, from
http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2010/01/135519.htm
• Ritholtz, B. (n.d.). 1993 vs 2013 | The Big Picture. The Big Picture. Retrieved August 2, 2013,
from http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/05/1993-vs-
2013/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheBigPicture+%
28The+Big+Picture%29