China is the world's second largest economy by nominal GDP $11.8 trillion. According to PPP its position is 1st 22.3 trillion 2017. Because it is known as global hub for manufacturing also China is the world's fastest growing consumer market and second largest importer of goods in the world.

1. EFFECT OF
POPULATION GROWTH
ON THE ECONOMIC
GROWTH OF CHINA
DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
Team Member
Shahana Sultana - 153 0786 653
Asif Mahmood Abbas – 172 5307 043

2. Quantity
Quality

3. • China is the world's second largest economy by nominal GDP $11.8 trillion.
According to PPP its position is 1st 22.3 trillion 2017. Because it is known as global
hub for manufacturing also China is the world's fastest growing consumer market
and second largest importer of goods in the world.
Agricultural
Growth 9%
Industrial Growth 40.5%
Service Sector Growth 50.5%

5. China is over populated country and there population is over 1.388 billion. But this
huge population is a threat for future economic growth of China.
So they adopted one child policy for economic growth. It was introduced in 1979.
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Population Growth rate

6. • There is a inverse relationship between Economic growth and Population growth
of China before the policy. higher the birth rate, the slower the economic growth.

7. The one-child policy has left China’s economic and social
support systems devastated
• The one-child policy proved to be the most draconian birth reduction program in
history. Under the one-child policy, the Communist Party, by its own estimation,
prevented over 400 million births and carried out over 336 million abortions.
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After Policy Population and Economic Growth
GDP Population

8. One Child Policy could have contributed to the increase in economic
growth. Here is the analysis:
• 1. Lower fertility leads to a higher level of schooling per child.
• 2. Lower fertility increases parental labor supply.
• 3. Lower fertility may facilitate parental migration, thus enabling the
reallocation of the labor force from rural to urban areas.

9. Human Development Index (HDI)
• China is holding 91 position in the world HDI ranking. Human
Development Index 0.738 in 2011
Life Expectancy at birth 76 years
•Adult mortality rate female 72 per
1000
•Adult mortality rate male 98 per 1000
•Infant mortality rate 9.2 per 1000
birth.
Expected years of schooling 13.5 years
•Adult literacy rate 96.4% ages 15 and
older.
•Mean years of schooling 7.6
Gross national income per capita
(2011 PPP$) 13,345
•Gross domestic product (GDP) per
capita 13400
•44.3
•Gross domestic product (GDP), total
(2011 PPP $ billions) 18,374.7
•Gross fixed capital formation (% of
GDP) 44.3

10. Income Inequality
• Gini Coefficient 42.2 (in2011) and 46.5 (in 2015)
Gender Development Index
• Gender Development Index 0.954
• Expected years of schooling, female (years) 13.7
• Expected years of schooling, male (years) 13.4
• Estimated gross national income per capita, female (2011 PPP$) 10705
• Estimated gross national income per capita, male (2011 PPP$) 15830
• Gender Inequality Index (GII) 0.164

11. Labor Force
807 million (in 2015)
Employment in
agriculture (% of total
employment) 29.5%
Employment in industrial
sector (% of total
employment) 29.9 %
Employment in Service
sector (% of total
employment) 40.6%
Total
Unemployment
Rate 4.1%
(in 2015)

12. China lifted more people out of
poverty than any other country
China experienced an average GDP growth of close to 10% per year until 2014, raising per
capita GDP almost 49-fold, from 155 current US Dollars (1978) to 7,590 US Dollars in 2014,
lifting 800 million people out of poverty – an unparalleled achievement.

13. In 2006, there were over 130 million rural migrant workers in
China.
An estimated one in five rural workers was a migrant worker, and
nearly one-half of the rural population had one or more family
members being migrant workers.
Migrant labor likely accounts for about one-third of total urban
employment.
Rural migrant workers often filled the most menial and lowest
paying jobs in urban labor markets, due to low educational and skill
levels.
RURAL MIGRANT WORKERS
MILLION
RURAL MIGRANT WORKERS
130

14. THE ONE-CHILD
POLICY HAS LEFT
CHINA’S ECONOMIC
AND SOCIAL SUPPORT
SYSTEMS DEVASTATED

15. • According to the National Bureau of
Statistics of China, the number of single
person households in China have more
than doubled since the year 2000, jumping
from 6.3 percent to 14.9 percent today.
• As a result of the gender imbalance
caused by the one-child policy, millions of
men will be unable to find wives.
• Under the one-child policy, many couples
resorted to sex-selective abortion to secure
for themselves a male heir before their birth
quota was filled.
• There are 108 marriage-age men in China
for every 100 marriage-age women in
China today.

16. THE ECONOMICS OF CHINA'S ONE-CHILD POLICY
• Since its introduction in the late 1970s to control China's rapid
population growth, policymakers have carved out some
exceptions to the rule, including a provision that allows rural
residents to have a second child if the first was a girl.
• Couples who violate the rule face heavy financial penalties,
and the deterrent has proved strong enough to drive fertility
rates lower in China.
• If birth rates were to increase, it would take 15 years -- or more
-- for those children to enter the labor force.
• China currently has more than 185 million citizens over the
age of 60. The elderly now account for around 12% of China's
population, a figure that is predicted to swell to 34% by 2050.

17. CHINA’S
STRUGGLE WITH
DEMOGRAPHIC
CHANGE

18. For the economy, this process will principally
impact the labor market by reducing the
supply of labor, with the work force expected
to shrink from 911 million in 2015, to 848.9
million in 2020, and to 781.8 million in 2030,
according to Deutsche Bank estimates.
Tighter labor markets will mean higher wages.
The Economist Intelligence Unit estimates that
average manufacturing labor costs rose 11.9
percent year-on-year (yoy) from 2001 to 2012,
and estimates further yoy growth of
12 percent between 2013 and 2020.
CHINA’S
STRUGGLE WITH
DEMOGRAPHIC
CHANGE

19. Between 1993 and 2012, healthcare expenditures are
estimated to have grown 11.6 percent per year to
reach RMB 1 trillion, but standards are still low.
China currently spends 3 percent of GDP on overall
health spending, including general care and elderly
care, and that number is forecast by the OECD to
increase to 5.2 percent of GDP by 2030, which means
that total spending will have grown from $230 billion in
2012 to $1.3 trillion by 2030.
Encouragingly, the Chinese government appears to
be responding by upgrading its industrial base,
introducing robotics into its manufacturing sector,
raising minimum retirement ages, relocating
businesses overseas, and abandoning the one-child
policy.CHINA’S STRUGGLE
WITH DEMOGRAPHIC
CHANGE

20. CHINA SAYS TWO-CHILD POLICY WILL CONTRIBUTE 0.5
PERCENTAGE POINT TO GROWTH RATE
China's adoption of a two-child policy is expected to boost the
country's economic growth rate by about 0.5 of a percentage
point, stemming from a rise in the size of its work force, said by a
senior Chinese official Wang Pei'an, vice minister of the National
Health and Family Planning Commission.
With the adoption of the two-child policy, China's labor force
could rise by about more than 30 million and its aging population
will be reduced by 2 percentage points by 2050, Wang said.
According to a government survey, most Chinese people want to
have two children, Wang said. Married couples within an average
age range between 20-44 years old said they would like 1.93
children, he said.

21. CONCLUSION
Economists inside and outside the country have warned that the One Child Policy could lead
to a shortage of workers, which might threaten China's economic growth as the population
ages rapidly.
As a result now the new government is pushing for urbanization and fairness, and allowing
to have two children.