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EFFECT OF
POPULATION GROWTH
ON THE ECONOMIC
GROWTH OF CHINA
DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
Team Member
Shahana Sultana - 153 0786 6...
Quantity
Quality
• China is the world's second largest economy by nominal GDP $11.8 trillion.
According to PPP its position is 1st 22.3 tri...
China is over populated country and there population is over 1.388 billion. But this
huge population is a threat for futur...
• There is a inverse relationship between Economic growth and Population growth
of China before the policy. higher the bir...
The one-child policy has left China’s economic and social
support systems devastated
• The one-child policy proved to be t...
One Child Policy could have contributed to the increase in economic
growth. Here is the analysis:
• 1. Lower fertility lea...
Human Development Index (HDI)
• China is holding 91 position in the world HDI ranking. Human
Development Index 0.738 in 20...
Income Inequality
• Gini Coefficient 42.2 (in2011) and 46.5 (in 2015)
Gender Development Index
• Gender Development Index ...
Labor Force
807 million (in 2015)
Employment in
agriculture (% of total
employment) 29.5%
Employment in industrial
sector ...
China lifted more people out of
poverty than any other country
China experienced an average GDP growth of close to 10% per...
In 2006, there were over 130 million rural migrant workers in
China.
An estimated one in five rural workers was a migrant ...
THE ONE-CHILD
POLICY HAS LEFT
CHINA’S ECONOMIC
AND SOCIAL SUPPORT
SYSTEMS DEVASTATED
• According to the National Bureau of
Statistics of China, the number of single
person households in China have more
than ...
THE ECONOMICS OF CHINA'S ONE-CHILD POLICY
• Since its introduction in the late 1970s to control China's rapid
population g...
CHINA’S
STRUGGLE WITH
DEMOGRAPHIC
CHANGE
For the economy, this process will principally
impact the labor market by reducing the
supply of labor, with the work forc...
Between 1993 and 2012, healthcare expenditures are
estimated to have grown 11.6 percent per year to
reach RMB 1 trillion, ...
CHINA SAYS TWO-CHILD POLICY WILL CONTRIBUTE 0.5
PERCENTAGE POINT TO GROWTH RATE
China's adoption of a two-child policy is ...
CONCLUSION
Economists inside and outside the country have warned that the One Child Policy could lead
to a shortage of wor...
EFFECT OF POPULATION GROWTH ON THE ECONOMIC GROWTH OF CHINA
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EFFECT OF POPULATION GROWTH ON THE ECONOMIC GROWTH OF CHINA

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China is the world's second largest economy by nominal GDP $11.8 trillion. According to PPP its position is 1st 22.3 trillion 2017. Because it is known as global hub for manufacturing also China is the world's fastest growing consumer market and second largest importer of goods in the world.

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EFFECT OF POPULATION GROWTH ON THE ECONOMIC GROWTH OF CHINA

  1. 1. EFFECT OF POPULATION GROWTH ON THE ECONOMIC GROWTH OF CHINA DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS Team Member Shahana Sultana - 153 0786 653 Asif Mahmood Abbas – 172 5307 043
  2. 2. Quantity Quality
  3. 3. • China is the world's second largest economy by nominal GDP $11.8 trillion. According to PPP its position is 1st 22.3 trillion 2017. Because it is known as global hub for manufacturing also China is the world's fastest growing consumer market and second largest importer of goods in the world. Agricultural Growth 9% Industrial Growth 40.5% Service Sector Growth 50.5%
  4. 4. China is over populated country and there population is over 1.388 billion. But this huge population is a threat for future economic growth of China. So they adopted one child policy for economic growth. It was introduced in 1979. -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Population Growth rate
  5. 5. • There is a inverse relationship between Economic growth and Population growth of China before the policy. higher the birth rate, the slower the economic growth.
  6. 6. The one-child policy has left China’s economic and social support systems devastated • The one-child policy proved to be the most draconian birth reduction program in history. Under the one-child policy, the Communist Party, by its own estimation, prevented over 400 million births and carried out over 336 million abortions. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 After Policy Population and Economic Growth GDP Population
  7. 7. One Child Policy could have contributed to the increase in economic growth. Here is the analysis: • 1. Lower fertility leads to a higher level of schooling per child. • 2. Lower fertility increases parental labor supply. • 3. Lower fertility may facilitate parental migration, thus enabling the reallocation of the labor force from rural to urban areas.
  8. 8. Human Development Index (HDI) • China is holding 91 position in the world HDI ranking. Human Development Index 0.738 in 2011 Life Expectancy at birth 76 years •Adult mortality rate female 72 per 1000 •Adult mortality rate male 98 per 1000 •Infant mortality rate 9.2 per 1000 birth. Expected years of schooling 13.5 years •Adult literacy rate 96.4% ages 15 and older. •Mean years of schooling 7.6 Gross national income per capita (2011 PPP$) 13,345 •Gross domestic product (GDP) per capita 13400 •44.3 •Gross domestic product (GDP), total (2011 PPP $ billions) 18,374.7 •Gross fixed capital formation (% of GDP) 44.3
  9. 9. Income Inequality • Gini Coefficient 42.2 (in2011) and 46.5 (in 2015) Gender Development Index • Gender Development Index 0.954 • Expected years of schooling, female (years) 13.7 • Expected years of schooling, male (years) 13.4 • Estimated gross national income per capita, female (2011 PPP$) 10705 • Estimated gross national income per capita, male (2011 PPP$) 15830 • Gender Inequality Index (GII) 0.164
  10. 10. Labor Force 807 million (in 2015) Employment in agriculture (% of total employment) 29.5% Employment in industrial sector (% of total employment) 29.9 % Employment in Service sector (% of total employment) 40.6% Total Unemployment Rate 4.1% (in 2015)
  11. 11. China lifted more people out of poverty than any other country China experienced an average GDP growth of close to 10% per year until 2014, raising per capita GDP almost 49-fold, from 155 current US Dollars (1978) to 7,590 US Dollars in 2014, lifting 800 million people out of poverty – an unparalleled achievement.
  12. 12. In 2006, there were over 130 million rural migrant workers in China. An estimated one in five rural workers was a migrant worker, and nearly one-half of the rural population had one or more family members being migrant workers. Migrant labor likely accounts for about one-third of total urban employment. Rural migrant workers often filled the most menial and lowest paying jobs in urban labor markets, due to low educational and skill levels. RURAL MIGRANT WORKERS MILLION RURAL MIGRANT WORKERS 130
  13. 13. THE ONE-CHILD POLICY HAS LEFT CHINA’S ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL SUPPORT SYSTEMS DEVASTATED
  14. 14. • According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the number of single person households in China have more than doubled since the year 2000, jumping from 6.3 percent to 14.9 percent today. • As a result of the gender imbalance caused by the one-child policy, millions of men will be unable to find wives. • Under the one-child policy, many couples resorted to sex-selective abortion to secure for themselves a male heir before their birth quota was filled. • There are 108 marriage-age men in China for every 100 marriage-age women in China today.
  15. 15. THE ECONOMICS OF CHINA'S ONE-CHILD POLICY • Since its introduction in the late 1970s to control China's rapid population growth, policymakers have carved out some exceptions to the rule, including a provision that allows rural residents to have a second child if the first was a girl. • Couples who violate the rule face heavy financial penalties, and the deterrent has proved strong enough to drive fertility rates lower in China. • If birth rates were to increase, it would take 15 years -- or more -- for those children to enter the labor force. • China currently has more than 185 million citizens over the age of 60. The elderly now account for around 12% of China's population, a figure that is predicted to swell to 34% by 2050.
  16. 16. CHINA’S STRUGGLE WITH DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE
  17. 17. For the economy, this process will principally impact the labor market by reducing the supply of labor, with the work force expected to shrink from 911 million in 2015, to 848.9 million in 2020, and to 781.8 million in 2030, according to Deutsche Bank estimates. Tighter labor markets will mean higher wages. The Economist Intelligence Unit estimates that average manufacturing labor costs rose 11.9 percent year-on-year (yoy) from 2001 to 2012, and estimates further yoy growth of 12 percent between 2013 and 2020. CHINA’S STRUGGLE WITH DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE
  18. 18. Between 1993 and 2012, healthcare expenditures are estimated to have grown 11.6 percent per year to reach RMB 1 trillion, but standards are still low. China currently spends 3 percent of GDP on overall health spending, including general care and elderly care, and that number is forecast by the OECD to increase to 5.2 percent of GDP by 2030, which means that total spending will have grown from $230 billion in 2012 to $1.3 trillion by 2030. Encouragingly, the Chinese government appears to be responding by upgrading its industrial base, introducing robotics into its manufacturing sector, raising minimum retirement ages, relocating businesses overseas, and abandoning the one-child policy.CHINA’S STRUGGLE WITH DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE
  19. 19. CHINA SAYS TWO-CHILD POLICY WILL CONTRIBUTE 0.5 PERCENTAGE POINT TO GROWTH RATE China's adoption of a two-child policy is expected to boost the country's economic growth rate by about 0.5 of a percentage point, stemming from a rise in the size of its work force, said by a senior Chinese official Wang Pei'an, vice minister of the National Health and Family Planning Commission. With the adoption of the two-child policy, China's labor force could rise by about more than 30 million and its aging population will be reduced by 2 percentage points by 2050, Wang said. According to a government survey, most Chinese people want to have two children, Wang said. Married couples within an average age range between 20-44 years old said they would like 1.93 children, he said.
  20. 20. CONCLUSION Economists inside and outside the country have warned that the One Child Policy could lead to a shortage of workers, which might threaten China's economic growth as the population ages rapidly. As a result now the new government is pushing for urbanization and fairness, and allowing to have two children.

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